Well, my friends, we made it. This is the end of our 20Q series as the NBA tips off later today. We're wrapping up the series with one of the simplest yet most important questions of all: how many games will your Sacramento Kings win?
Guessing win totals is a little trickier than normal as this season will only have 72 games. And we don't even know the full schedule of games, as the NBA has only released half the schedule so far. We also know that this season, more than most, can be quickly disrupted by unforeseen events. With the NBA schedule packed into a shorter timeframe, even minor injuries could result in more games missed. And all of this is before we begin to think about players missing time due to positive COVID tests. It's going to be a very difficult season to predict.
And yet we're going to try.
Oddshark has the Kings over/under at 28.5 wins. That's the equivalent of 32.5 win in an 82 game season. Personally, I'll take the under. I think the Kings finish with 27 wins this year, equivalent to about 31 wins in an 82 game season. I'm counting on the Kings being better than expected in some ways, worse than expected in others, and for the Kings to make a trade or two along the way.
Let us know you prediction in the comments below.
Hard to speculate due to future trades and when they happen but:
32 wins without trades.
25 with trades.
Good call accounting for trades.
29 without trades, 25 with trades.
The fewer the better.
60 wins if Walton is out by MLK day.
Yes, I can see it now.
We start the season 0-12, fire the coach, and then go 60-0. Fantastic.
Easy as falling down.
As much as I hate to agree, I think you’re probably spot on with 27. The lack of a summer league and a short preseason has me worried about the first 10 games. I do think we’ll see this team coming together in the second half of the season. It will be just enough to get me overly (probably unrealistically) optimistic about next season, like a true Kings fan.
Its a well set line, but I would also take the under. I think there are plenty of reasons be it the inter-conference play, our division and collectively so many teams seeking or are improved just generally in the league. The good teams will sustain or just marginally get worse, plenty in the tier below are seeking or will improve. And there are a handful of teams improving by 3 to 7 wins in the middle/bottom playoff seeds be it ATL, BRK, PHX among some others. All that points to a major incentive for the Kings to zag, and if make moves, justify them in a future context or to maximize draft odds. Prioritizing individual improvement of our core, and maximize lottery odds makes the most sense.
I’m going under with 25.
Last year’s usage of Buddy does not give me hope that there will be enough offense to offset the defensive shortcomings that are going to be there, although adding Gentry gives me some hope on that front. I’m also not overly optimistic on getting 60+ games out of Bagley and any time that Fox is out the offense is totally screwed. Add all that to the general improvement across the Western Conference and I think we are in for a long season.
I think that you’re going to be pleasantly surprised by how well Haliburton runs the offense when Fox is getting a breather. He’s a solid shooter, but he’s a legit combo guard, and will provide a very different look to defenses when he’s directing things.
I am really optimistic on Tyrese and hope to be pleasantly surprised. I was in Portland when Brandon Roy was drafted and the immediate impact that he had was tremendous. Tyrese looks like he belongs on the court in a similar way to me. If he has anywhere near that impact then he is a home run pick.
The picture of Buddy and Fox to open the topic says it all !
24 W with a +/- 5 games of error margin
Too many to get a top prospect, too few to be relevant.
It is known.
You can actually get 27.5 at a few sites. At that total, I’d be comfortable taking the over. This team’s probably a 32-35 win team. My thing is I don’t think trades will make the Kings significantly worse unless they just waive whoever they take back. They could just go straight tank mode, and bench the vets like they did with ZBo, but why bring in Whiteside if that’s the plan?
35 would mean winning almost half the games. I can’t see it.
It would mean having a similar WIN% to what they had two seasons ago. So I’m saying the range is slightly better than last season, to about as good as they were two seasons ago.
Yep, agreed – I think your range (considering they don’t intentionally try to bottom out) is about right.
then they fire Walton and hire Joerger to complete the circle
On a one year deal for minimum $, Whiteside doesn’t need to be part of “the plan.” He’s a body. If you think he’s going to de-rail the tank, I think that’ probably unrealistic considering his past performance, especially his impact on winning %.
I didn’t say he needed to be part of the plan. I said signing Whiteside is a sign, to me, that they don’t plan on flat out benching vets. If they aren’t planning on doing that, then it will be hard to do a proper tank.
I’d be very surprised if Walton is on board with a full-on tank job.
in my opinion, they won’t try to win but not completely tank either. Basically, they’ll give the young guys slightly more minutes than they deserve. A good example is Bagley. I think he will start as long as he’s healthy even though the fit alongside Holmes is sub-optimal. That will decrease their ceiling without completely allowing them to bottoming out. Barnes probably won’t average 35 MPG this season to free up minutes for some of the young wings. On the flipside, hopefully they get creative with lineups. Give me some Fox/Tyrese/Buddy/Barnes/Bagley lineups. Let’s lose a bunch of games 140-135!
This is my hope for this season.
If he is, that means he’s confident he’ll be around in 2022, and that’s disheartening to even think about.
It comes down to moving Buddy. His gravity on the court helps Fox and others on the court. Move him and the win total drops by quite a few, IMO.
I still think we may see a King or two shipped to Boston into their massive TPE. Barnes and Holmes both fit or Buddy alone. Kings get back a pick(s) and Nesmith. Tank on.
I find it hard to believe that Ainge will use the TPE on a player with a multi-year contract unless that player is star-ish. I think it’s much more likely they use it on players that can help them win now on an expiring contracts.
The more likely scenario for the Kings is finding a team that will send a big expiring back. Then the Kings can just do a buyout, and let that player join a playoff team. Something like OPJ for Buddy.
On his contract, is Buddy a negative asset? If he plays like last year, the answer is probably yes. If he plays like 2 years ago, then I think we can do better than just an expiring.
That depends on who he’s traded for, of course.
U bring whiteside in the event that we over produce, there are too many unknowns to start the season, will fox take a leap? Will buddy be lights out again, is Bagley ready to produce, will Hali have a solid rookie year? If we stay healthy and most of this answers are yes then we’ll be right in the thick of the playoffs and we’ll be the cinderella team. Otherwise as the most likely scenerio all the vets are gone by the trade deadline we cant afford to miss out on this years class even if we are a near or above 500 team its not enough to not blow it up
Regardless of whether people accept reality or not, the pandemic is going to find a way to create disruption to this season and to every team.
My guess is in the 23-27 range. Like the Kings usually do, they will somehow find a way to beat a handful of really good teams and lose to a few teams below them.
Whatever the under is for the third quarter of Kings games, I’m putting the house on it.
Here’s a fun follow-up question:
Will the Kings have a third quarter this season where they do not score in double digits?
It’s truly a special kind of coach that consistently makes their team worse with their halftime adjustments and speeches.
I actually think this is an easy yes. I think Luke Walton is really that bad. I’m not going to go back and look but I’d guess they’ve had a few quarters over the last handful of years where they’ve scored 6-9 points. The fewest points they’ve ever scored in a quarter in franchise history is 4 so it’s certainly doable.
This is a fun rabbit hole to follow. We know the Kings are a historically bad third quarter team under Luke, so what will be the most points they give up right after halftime? 30? 35? 40?
Absolutely would not surprise me to see a close game (within 5 points) at halftime and then see the Kings go into the 4th down 30+.
Ok, let’s combine your questions now. What’s the biggest point differential in a single 3rd quarter this year?
the biggest 3Q point differential last season was -27 in a victory against the Washington Wizards. They got outscored 19 to 46. The least amount of points scored in 3Q was 15 in a loss to Houston.
-27 in a quarter is legitimately impressive. And they won the game because the Wizards were an abomination on defense last year!
Yeah they were so consistently bad after half time last year and I think this team is worse this year that I am ready for anything.
But really 25.
It’s hard to say with so many variables, but Fox is #1. If he turns another ankle we could be right at the top of the lottery.
I dun wan et
One of the great reads in film history.
I’m going to go with 32 wins, caveat of course for injuries and they don’t blow it up midseason. This was a 39 team win under Joerger, and (based on a full season) 34-35 win team last season and the current roster seems as good as those two.
They lost Bogi, but it looks like Haliburton could be an adequate replacement for the teams playmaking needs and he seems solid defensively. The West has gotten tougher, but the West is ALWAYS tough, and the schedule is proportionally East heavy this season. And even though he had a poor preseason (just as he did last year), I expect Fox to improve, Buddy to be used more properly and do the same, Holmes to not miss half the season, and even Bagley to figure out how to be a productive NBA player.
In short, I really don’t see how this team suddenly dips to the worst or second worst in the West or record-wise to the bottom-five in the league. Even with a terrible HC.
my BOLD prediction if Walton gets fired: Gentry keeps the associate head coach position and Rex Kalamian becomes interim head coach.
Ooohhh that would be really intriguing. Reminds me a lot of Michael Malone (being a defensive coach) and having Gentry as our offensive coordinator.
I actually don’t mind it as long as Luke is gone during or after the season.
My guts still thinks that if/when Luke gets replaced, it would be for Wes Unseld Jr.
This feels like a team that will hover around the .400 mark, though it would not shock me to see them shat the bed coming out of the gate. 29-43 would be a .400 team. Deduct two games for Kangz-inbred pessimism and I’m at 27-45.
I think 25 wins is about where this team is at. Maybe they get to 30 if everything works out swimmingly.
The funny thing is, I don’t know if Luke Walton coaching to win helps or hurts the tank. On the one hand, wins. On the other hand, Luke Walton.
I think the roster is terrible, they haven’t played together, the west is stacked, and injuries.
I’m genuinely curious how the roster is terrible, compared to the last couple of seasons.
Somewhere around 27 to 32 wins assuming the roster stays the same and nothing beyond your average injury luck.
I’m not even going to try to guess about a total if they start moving key players. Do they move them for scrap and draft assets? Then the win total goes down. Do they move them for someone like Myles Turner? Then it may go up. Do they move them for a good-but-overpaid players on a shorter deal? Win total may very well go up.
Is this price is right rules? If so, I’ll say 1.
In all seriousness though, I’ll say 26 wins. I just hope they’re youth movement wins, and not veterans leading the way.
I’m going 24 W’s and 48 L’s.
I think they go 2-8 to start the year, have a little push around mid-season when they win 7 out 10/11 games, then smaller injuries derail a very thin margin of error for this team. I believe by the end of the year however, Hali is pushing top 3 for ROY and Bagley is in the discussion for comeback player of the year. A top 6-8 pick next and some cap space for Monte to possibly swing big if the right opportunity presents itself. The storm or reckoning will not be pretty, but I do believe we are headed in the right direction.
29 wins sounds about right. Although I would say if we start trading most of the veterans during the season then I’d say around 25 wins. I think its enough to put us in the top 5 in the lottery and hopefully get lucky enough to either jump to number 1 or stay at 5.
20 wins or bust!
I’m going with 38. Kings finish above .500
I have no idea but I’ll pull a guestimate out of my ass which is 27 – 30 wins. If I was forced to bet on a number of wins or get shot I’d say 27.
Wins. Like old times
Hard to guess. With Covid and Trades.
If the team stays intact with no trades 28-30 Wins
If the Kings trade Buddy and some other pieces(Bjelica, Barnes, etc) 20-24
Trading Buddy will be the quickest way the KIngs can land a Top 6 pick next year.
If not, this team will be picking in the 8-10 range.
I think Charlotte, NY, Cleve, Minny, Spurs and Pistons are the teams that will probably be worse than the Kings, record wise.
With the current roster (no trades, no major injuries) I would say something like 30-32 wins in a 82 games season: in a 72 games season I think it should correspond to something around 26-28 wins (but considering trades and everything, that number could go down somewhere to 21-23).
Our beloved Kings will be bad. Exactly how bad will depend on a few factors including health of Kings players, opponents’ health, and potential trades. I think they’ll finish with 25-27 wins and a bottom 5 record.