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Breaking down the De’Aaron Fox trade rumors, with Jerry Reynolds

Well, that escalated quickly.
By and | 99 Comments | Jan 29, 2025

The Kings Herald Show returns with Jerry Reynolds, Will Griffith, and Tony Xypteras to try and make sense of the sudden De’Aaron Fox trade rumors, and where the Kings go from here.

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Want2win
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January 29, 2025 8:12 am

I don’t know that we will get a star back unless we can swing for a guy like Franz Wagner, he’s not a star, but he’s a stud player that helps the team become more balanced. I think if we can get a solid player that has upside a guy like castle or vessel l and draft picks we become a better team. For example, if we got the Vassell, Sochan and a draft pick were better. (Would prefer Castle)I want a better team and if that means a trade where we get multiple players back that help us I’m OK with it, especially if it provides flexibility. I would love to get a guy like Amen Thompson. We desperately need more 67369 guys. They can play the 3/4. Can you imagine a lineup that has Murray, Thompson and Sabonis up front? Or Murray, Sochan, Sabonis, DDR , Vessell, Monk, Lyles, Keon and Carter? We have much more flexibility and better size to deal with those longer teams

Last edited 19 days ago by Want2win
RikSmits
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January 29, 2025 8:13 am

Heard it already this morning on Spotify. Excellent stuff.

I agree with Jerry on everything he said regarding Klutch Sports, Rich Paul and Fox. That wa a huge red flag and from that moment on the escalation would come at some point. And the FO did not do itself any favors either, in that regard.

Marty
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January 29, 2025 8:14 am

Would two first round picks qualify as “star stuff back”?

Want2win
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January 29, 2025 8:17 am
Reply to  Marty

It depends on the draft picks and if you get a solid player with great upside coming back, but just two first round pics I would say no unless you’re gonna get Cooper flagG, because we know that Monti will just draft and undersized guard with those draft picks and we’re still left without any size and length

Last edited 19 days ago by Want2win
Hobby916
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January 29, 2025 8:18 am
Reply to  Marty

If a Spurs trade were to happen, they have the Atlanta 1st round that is unprotected in 2025. Jalen Johnson just had shoulder surgery and is out for the season, so I can see Atlanta dropping pretty quickly. That pick could be qualify as “star stuff back”. I am not sure how many small guards are projected high lottery picks this year, though.

Want2win
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January 29, 2025 8:20 am
Reply to  Hobby916

Vassell, Sochan and that first would be a great haul..

Last edited 19 days ago by Want2win
Kfan
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January 29, 2025 9:04 am
Reply to  Hobby916

Tankathon has 9 guards in the top 15 in their mock

Hobby916
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January 29, 2025 9:08 am
Reply to  Kfan

Hoe many are 6’3 and under?

Kfan
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January 29, 2025 9:17 am
Reply to  Hobby916

Only 1 and he’s 15th!

Hobby916
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January 29, 2025 9:19 am
Reply to  Kfan

Trade down time!!!

RikSmits
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January 29, 2025 8:24 am
Reply to  Marty

Depends in what range.

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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Nostradumbass 14
January 29, 2025 8:45 am
Reply to  Marty

Pels gave up 2 firsts, Dyson Daniels, Larry Nance, and filler for Dejounte Murray. I think that is the starting point for Fox.

Hobby916
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January 29, 2025 8:48 am
Reply to  Adamsite

Spurs unprotected this year, along with the Atlanta unprotected this year as well. Just load the ammo and try to capture the Flagg. Hell, if the trade happens and the Kings keep their own 2025 pick, that would be 3 chances to get Flagg, and they would have 3 of the top 12 picks to retool the roster.

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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Nostradumbass 14
January 29, 2025 9:39 am
Reply to  Hobby916

I don’t think Kings are getting those 2025 unprotected firsts, especially with Jalen Johnson going down for the season.

I’m also not sure the Kings fall into the lottery below the 12th spot to keep their pick. If Fox were moved for prospects and picks, I fear they will still be good enough to flirt with the play-in but not be bad enough to guarantee a top 12 pick.

Hobby916
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January 29, 2025 9:48 am
Reply to  Adamsite

It’s pie in the sky, and I don’t expect it either.

Want2win
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January 29, 2025 10:26 am
Reply to  Hobby916

Ohh I like pie, Banana Cream Pie, Apple Pie, Chochlate Silk Pie, Cherry Pie, definitely peach pie.. mmmm

RobHessing
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January 29, 2025 10:27 am
Reply to  Want2win

Has to be blueberry, if it’s sharing the sky with the beam.

Hobby916
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January 29, 2025 10:28 am
Reply to  RobHessing

Light the Blueberry Beam?

UpgradedToQuestionable
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January 29, 2025 2:15 pm
Reply to  Hobby916

I never understood this reference. Cake, whether levitated or not, is superior.
I know that Marie Antoinette and CaseyCheesecake must agree.

And only one has layers. And frosting. And is used in celebrations. And has an ice cream version.
Cake all the way. On a plate, on a table. Not dangling in the lower atmosphere.

If it must be pie, let it be Key Lime.

eddie41
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January 29, 2025 1:22 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Pels didn’t know what they had in Daniels.

Want2win
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January 29, 2025 1:44 pm
Reply to  eddie41

I think Dysons are overrated and lightly suck

Last edited 19 days ago by Want2win
RobHessing
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January 29, 2025 1:48 pm
Reply to  Want2win

You would prefer Sharkille O’Neal?

eddie41
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January 29, 2025 2:13 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

or Stromile Swiffer?

RobHessing
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January 29, 2025 2:30 pm
Reply to  eddie41

Please don’t Hoo-ver.

BuiltToSpill
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January 29, 2025 2:15 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

Or a Kirby Puckett?

UpgradedToQuestionable
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January 29, 2025 2:16 pm
Reply to  BuiltToSpill

Ty-Eureka Evans?

RobHessing
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January 29, 2025 9:27 am
Reply to  Marty

Not for me. And here’s why –

In any given year, you would have no better than a 14% chance of the #1 pick, and that’s only if you are in the bottom three. Should you somehow triumph over those paltry odds, there is probably a 50/50 chance (give or take) that your pick never attains star status.

Heck, look at any draft, and carve it up however you like. Percentage of 1st round picks that make all-NBA or even all-star. Percentage of lottery picks, Percentage of top 5 picks. None of them are great odds.

Next, the 2nd draft pick doesn’t improve those odds a great deal – it just puts you back in the mix again.

Last but not least, your front office has to pick the right guy(s). Shake it up and pour it out, and I would put the current number at under 10% that the Kings get a guy as good as De’Aaron Fox out of those two draft picks. That can change the actual placement of the picks firms up, but right now I think that two first round draft picks – even unprotected picks – is less than a 10% yield.

Hobby916
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January 29, 2025 9:34 am
Reply to  RobHessing

I would like to know who you think the Kings could target that is as good as Fox or better if a deal happens? Are they available? Does the trade partner want Fox? It’s nice to pick you brain about these things because I generally think you give honest assessments (even if you know nothing).

RobHessing
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January 29, 2025 9:40 am
Reply to  Hobby916

I highly doubt that Jaylen Brown is available, but that would be an interesting conversation to sit in on with the Celtics. Would the Jazz be happier with Fox than Lauri (not available until this summer)? Would the Heat consider Fox an upgrade over Herro or Bam? Could you trust Chet Holmgren to be healthy as the perfect fit next to Domas (a multi-team deal, obviously, given that OKC would not likely want Fox).

Now, I think that any of these names are 99% unlikely to be involved in a Fox trade. That said, I think that the overwhelming majority of trades that we discuss or unlikely to happen. Not because they’re crazy trades, but because NBA trades are not as easy to execute as they are to invent and discuss.

Hobby916
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January 29, 2025 9:47 am
Reply to  RobHessing

Thanks. As I look through the teams and think about which team/player combination might work as a trade partner, it sure is slim pickings.

As you said, the young players that are on a similar talent level as Fox probably won’t be traded because they are younger. Tanking teams (Hornets, for example) aren’t trading Ball or Miller for a 27 year old Fox.

Some of the better teams (Cleveland, Boston, etc) seem fairly set in the backcourt. It is challenging to find a top 40 player that is available that is also under 30 years old.

RobHessing
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January 29, 2025 9:50 am
Reply to  Hobby916

It is challenging to find a top 40 player that is available that is also under 30 years old.

And the Kings should think long and hard about that.

Hobby916
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January 29, 2025 9:55 am
Reply to  RobHessing

That’s the issue I get hung up about. Do the Kings want to trade him? Is his agent pushing for this? Does Fox actually want to leave Sacramento?

It’s all muddled, and who knows what the hell is actually going on with the team and Fox/Agent.

RobHessing
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January 29, 2025 10:04 am
Reply to  Hobby916

My thought is, get Collins or Cam and balance this roster. Make your 2nd half run. See what this team looks like by the playoffs. If it’s humming, Fox is probably OK staying – it’s not like he can make more money anywhere else. That seems more easily attainable and less volatile than trading Fox. And if it doesn’t work, re-assess this summer. His value is not going to tank between now and then, major injury notwithstanding.

Hobby916
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January 29, 2025 10:12 am
Reply to  RobHessing

I agree. It sounded like a Collins deal was “imminent” but then nothing happened…

Just add the talent now, even in future draft capital is included. If things go sideways and Fox asks out in the offseason, they can always recoup draft capital.

They need help at the 3/4 or 4/5, and we are still waiting on that to actually materialize. Maybe John Collins unlocks another gear for this team and they get to the 2nd round. We won’t know unless a deal actually happens.

Kfan
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January 29, 2025 10:24 am
Reply to  Hobby916

Yeah, it’s time to do something

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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January 29, 2025 10:22 am
Reply to  RobHessing

I went to be thinking that if there was any traction to a deal of Collins or Cam, it now may be a harder climb to get them. Ainge and Marks are gonna play hardball with the Fox news.They know Monte’s back is up against the wall now. I expect a King’s ransom for them now…pun intended.

RobHessing
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January 29, 2025 10:27 am
Reply to  Adamsite

And if that has happened, how do we trust this front office to pull of a Fox trade that doesn’t cripple the franchise?

Adamsite
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January 29, 2025 10:30 am
Reply to  RobHessing

Totally valid point.

andy_sims
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January 30, 2025 3:35 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

I suppose you could replace “Fox” in the sentence with “Haliburton” and drift back a few years to see how it feels.

And Fox is still degrees better than our kid Ty.

The point Jerry made about the Kings still having a lot of flexibility as to what to do with Fox (if anything), and when (if ever), is an important one. If Fox wants to go to San Antonio, I’d like to hope that the front office will try very hard to do so. But if the return ain’t right, there are twenty-eight other teams, the majority of which would get a nice bump from having Fox on the roster.

McNair is not a fool, and would likely be a genius if the non-basketball people in the organization were kept away from him with dogs and land mines. He won’t overreact, he won’t take a deal without it improving or having the potential to improve the team, and he has no need to rush. The ticking clock is barely audible.

A year from now, assuming no summer trade or re-signing of Fox? Each tick will sound like a gong. Unless an offer provides a real path for the Kings to improve in the now or very near term, my hope is that we can keep him. The ideas floated about acquiring Collins or someone else not as good as Collins could bear fruit, and make Fox’s eye stop wandering.

I also found some of the scenarios posited about deals with San Antonio or Houston to be well-worth considering. I don’t want Zion, and I sure as hell don’t want Jalen Suggs unless he comes with Franz.

OKC has less need for a player like Fox right now than most teams, but if they would be willing to trade a minimum of five first-rounders (not their own) for the next three drafts (and probably nothing else of real value), do you look at that? Could a half-season teardown be acceptable if there’s a good chance to fill gaps in the draft? That’s a tough one, and I don’t know what I’d do if my say mattered.

If Fox does go, there are a lot of different ways it could play out, and there are going to be a lot of us that won’t be happy about the return. Others will be, and it’ll still be months before anyone can make a cogent argument about it either way.

OLDBHOY
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January 29, 2025 11:39 am
Reply to  Adamsite

This is my biggest issue with Monte (Vivek), every move and decision seems reactionary and late to the game. And consequently lower value than if the FO could be more forward thinking and forecast. Crazy talk I know.

They play checkers in a chess league.

The recent ideal time to shop Fox would have been right after his 60 and 49 point games.

RobHessing
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January 29, 2025 12:07 pm
Reply to  OLDBHOY

Do you think that other NBA GMs are so reactionary that their valuations of Fox would change after a 60 and 49 pt. game set? I have my doubts.

Otis
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January 29, 2025 12:13 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

We used to make this joke in the old days, but the only GMs who were likely to get fooled like that…were employed by the Kings.

I suspect in the age of analytics (where even the most stubborn old fist-shaking owners employ quant guys in the front office), small sample sizes are generally ignored.

RobHessing
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January 29, 2025 12:21 pm
Reply to  Otis

Yep. I think that a general fan base looks at these things through a fantasy football league lens. But professional GMs – even the bad ones – have their valuations and are not going to move off of them based on a few games.

Speaking of lenses, is there a lens through which you can see this organization winning a Fox trade? But maybe for this org., it’s about minimizing how badly you lose. Awfully on brand for Ranadive timeline.

Otis
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January 29, 2025 12:47 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

Agreed. I could see GMs using those types of big scoring games as a selling point to ownership or fans, but can’t imagine them actually prioritizing it for valuation. Where’s David Kahn when you need him? 😉

Winning (or I guess just not losing) a Fox trade could simply be about getting the right combination of (slightly less) talented players back and/or draft assets and not being locked down with his contract long term.

Having said all that, my opinion certainly shouldn’t be relied on. I’ve been watching some Kings basketball, but haven’t watched every game. I’m mostly filtering through advanced stats and lineup data.

OLDBHOY
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January 29, 2025 2:19 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

Probably not but I would have shopped him a long time ago (years not months) and not waited for his agent to get involved.

I am concerned the market will not yield what a lot of us hope.

macdoogs
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January 29, 2025 11:57 am
Reply to  RobHessing

I’m all for keeping De’Aaron IF he’s on board 100%. One trend I personally hate is when a player signs a massive extension, then demands a trade. I love Fox. I love that he wanted to come to Sac and turn it around. He has his faults but he is a homegrown star for us.

At the same time though… I’m not necessarily mad at any player who wants to get a fresh start after playing for the franchise and certainly seeing the same things we see, if not more behind the scenes. If he is eventually going to force his way out like it seems he’s doing now, let’s get the best out of it for both parties.

That being said I do not WANT to trade him. As of now though, the writing on the wall seems to be what it is

HoustonJP
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January 29, 2025 3:26 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

Cade Cunningham. Straight up.

It would be an interesting phone call to tap. Detroits time line may, or may not, be different than Fox. Prob take another team.

Want2win
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January 29, 2025 8:16 am

I also just read that the Kings have been saying that they want a win now type player, personally that makes me think they’re looking at guys like Zach LaVine or Jimmy Butler and I would prefer to have solid players that help us win now and provide a better future. To me you get a guys like Vassel Sochon and Draft capital , still make the playoffs and they set up better for the future. Same thing with getting a guy like Franz Wagner.

Hobby916
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January 29, 2025 8:21 am
Reply to  Want2win

Zach Lavine and “win now”? I laugh at that.

Want2win
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January 29, 2025 8:23 am
Reply to  Hobby916

I agree but was just naming the types of player I could see Monte Vivek going after

Hobby916
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January 29, 2025 8:24 am
Reply to  Want2win

Yeah, I really hope Lavine isn’t on that list, same with Butler.

RikSmits
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January 29, 2025 8:26 am
Reply to  Hobby916

He’d love to be reunited with DDR.

Adamsite
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January 29, 2025 8:43 am
Reply to  Hobby916

FWIW, I have Zach LaVine on the same talent tier as Fox, and it could be argued LaVine is a rung above.

Hobby916
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January 29, 2025 8:50 am
Reply to  Adamsite

What about on the current Kings roster, sans Fox, and the money owed to Lavine?

Offensively I think Lavine is better than Fox (without a deep dive in to the numbers), and Lavine is a worse defender.

Klam
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January 29, 2025 9:08 am
Reply to  Want2win

Well, Butler’s camp did say the only team he didn’t want to be traded to was Memphis… 😉

Hobby916
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January 29, 2025 9:11 am
Reply to  Klam

Jimmy Buckets can join Doug McBuckets

Want2win
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January 29, 2025 10:07 am
Reply to  Hobby916

Sounds like a bucket of poop

RobHessing
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January 29, 2025 10:10 am
Reply to  Want2win

Dung McDermott?

FarmerGuy
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January 29, 2025 8:18 am

It was reported this morning that the Kings have already received dozens of offers. I wonder how many are good trades versus someone else trying to be opportunitistic.

Hippity_Hop_Barbershop
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January 29, 2025 8:23 am
Reply to  FarmerGuy

There are dozens of offers! Dozens!

comment image

SavageBeast
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January 29, 2025 8:51 am

It would be nice if the Kings actually had the guts to only trade Fox if it was a great return. But Vivek isn’t known for his patience.

Hobby916
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January 29, 2025 8:54 am
Reply to  SavageBeast

But Monte is…I bet they collide a lot when discussing things.

SavageBeast
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January 29, 2025 8:56 am
Reply to  Hobby916

I’m not entirely sure whether Monte is patient or just incompetent.

Hobby916
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January 29, 2025 8:57 am
Reply to  SavageBeast

Its’s a fine line.

OLDBHOY
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January 29, 2025 9:26 am
Reply to  SavageBeast

Or alive. He might just be a body held up by a vest

Last edited 19 days ago by OLDBHOY
RobHessing
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January 29, 2025 9:35 am

If I have a roster that has Domantas Sabonis in his prime, I need a top 40 player (at least) that is under the age of 30 in return for Fox. Jaylen Brown. Bam Abedayo. Tyler Herro. Tyrese Haliburton (just checking to see if you’re still reading). Jamal Murray. Laurie Markkanen. Chet Holmgren (if health checks out).

Are most of these guys available? Nope (Lauri is contractually unavailable at the present, just to name one). But this the level that I need to be OK with a Fox trade. I have no interest in wasting Sabonis’ prime, and I have no interest in dealing Sabonis.

Adamsite
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January 29, 2025 9:49 am
Reply to  RobHessing

What if it were two players many my view a tier below Fox?

Totally hypothetical, but what about packages that may include Jerami Grant/Anfernee Simmons/Deni Avdija, or LaVine/Colby White, or Franz/Suggs or Dejounte Murray/Herb Jones?

RobHessing
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January 29, 2025 9:54 am
Reply to  Adamsite

My indigestion would be that this team has lacked top-end talent for decades, and in this case we are dealing top-end talent for less than top end talent. And now the conversation starts all over again, except now it is Domas that can’t lead a mediocre roster through the playoffs. So he gets dealt for a similar package. And we’re back to where we were before we had Fox and Domas.

Adamsite
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January 29, 2025 10:20 am
Reply to  RobHessing

I think the later part of your paragraph is a slippery slope of an unknown outcome. As I could assume should you add more lesser end talent than Fox (your milage may vary) that could potentially add complimentary depth to Sabonis and make the team even better, right?

Full admission, I think Sabonis is the best player on this team and the roster is dead in the water without him. IMO, the same can’t be said about Fox, who is a very solid 1B player. So could it be argued that trading away your 1B player for a couple of 2A players be a solid move?

Want2win
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January 29, 2025 10:22 am
Reply to  Adamsite

I agree that 2 2a players is a win if you can5 find a complimentary 1b

Adamsite
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January 29, 2025 10:30 am
Reply to  Want2win

Is DeRozan a 1B at this point, at least in the short term?

I should add, if you were to add a bunch of 2A players for depth, those can potentially be flipped at a later time for a legitimate superstar. That’s how PHX landed Durant and the Lakers landed AD.

RobHessing
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January 29, 2025 10:34 am
Reply to  Adamsite

But both Phx and LA made those deals with the blessing of KD and LeBron, respectively. So I don’t know that those are realistic scenarios for the Kings.

Adamsite
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January 29, 2025 10:43 am
Reply to  RobHessing

Ok, what about how Cavs landed Mitchell or how the Knicks landed KAT?. I feel the NBA is full of scenarios where a team flipped two dimes and a nickel for a quarter, and the opposite for that matter.

I feel you on the magic beans of picks. There is no guarantee there. This is also why I don’t think Presti is going to use all those picks. He’s gonna kick those cans down the road for as long as he can until a bird in hand scenario presents itself. The PHX draft pick trades are an example of that.

Hobby916
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January 29, 2025 10:25 am
Reply to  Adamsite

I think it is much harder to replace what Domas does than replacing what Fox does. Fox is good, and I generally enjoy watching him play. That being said, he is mainly a volume scorer that is somewhat inefficient.

If Domas was gone, this team would drastically need to change it’s entire approach to the game. I think Fox and go and another scoring guard that is average/good to defense could be plugged in and the transition period would be rather to short.

RobHessing
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January 29, 2025 10:36 am
Reply to  Adamsite

I guess what I would say is that these complementary player deals are “have to” trades for me, not “want to” trades. And I don’t think that we are at the “have to” stage yet.

Adamsite
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January 29, 2025 10:44 am
Reply to  RobHessing

That’s fair. Time will tell, and I sure as hell hope we don’t get to that point either.

Want2win
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January 29, 2025 10:13 am
Reply to  Adamsite

Sign Me up for Franz/Suggs… I think Franz is a perfect player next to Sabonis and with Keegan..

Kfan
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January 29, 2025 10:21 am
Reply to  Adamsite

I think you can take a chance on that when the tier below players are still young with upside. Thompson for example.

Adamsite
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January 29, 2025 10:25 am
Reply to  Kfan

I read yesterday that Houston is off the table. They are content with their team going forward, and I don’t blame them. Who knows though??

Kfan
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January 29, 2025 10:29 am
Reply to  Adamsite

Yeah, I read that too. I think I’d wait too if I were them, especially with how Green has been playing.

OLDBHOY
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January 29, 2025 11:44 am
Reply to  Kfan

For sure, Green looks like a younger, bigger version of Fox already

Hobby916
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January 29, 2025 10:30 am
Reply to  Adamsite

I think they might be an offseason team that would be more open to a trade.

MichaelMack
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January 29, 2025 12:45 pm
Reply to  Hobby916

Me too. I think they want to have a firmer idea of what their youth actually is, then figure out how to level up this summer.

Want2win
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January 29, 2025 10:15 am
Reply to  RobHessing

Lauri would be good, forgot about him

Kfan
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January 29, 2025 9:44 am

Rise the hot hand! an Otis shoutout! and an indirect Adamsite reference!

Good stuff as always.

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January 29, 2025 10:32 am
Reply to  Kfan

Yeah, that was cool.

cloudyeyes
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January 29, 2025 9:47 am

Since we’re here talking about this and assuming Fox won’t sign after next season:

SA gets: Fox

Kings get: Castle, Sochan, Kelden Johnson

Kings get two guys on rookie contracts with good upside, take a flyer on Kelden Johnson. Johnson was a good piece in prior years, maybe he just needs a change of scenery. Spurs also can throw around picks to make the deal work.

Last edited 19 days ago by cloudyeyes
Jack
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January 29, 2025 12:07 pm
Reply to  cloudyeyes

I like this trade IF the Spurs add some of their draft picks. Also you might get Cam and Sharpe for Huerter, Lyles, Carter and an unprotected first. IMO Castle is going to be a better players than Carter. Sharpe in a really good backup tp Sabonis and Murray and Sochan are now 2 good power forwards. Johnson can play SG, SF and PF. Keldon is only 25 and can fill in at SG , SF and even PF. Really good rebounder for his size.

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January 29, 2025 1:29 pm
Reply to  Jack

I think you’d be getting fleeced by the Nets with that suggestion.

Want2win
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January 29, 2025 10:14 am

This thread is so much more entertaining then the conference call I am on trying to interpret the FFIEC HMDA Guide

Adamsite
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January 29, 2025 10:24 am
Reply to  Want2win

I’m in the waiting room at my Subaru service shop, so I hear you!

Hobby916
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January 29, 2025 10:27 am
Reply to  Adamsite

I am in a training discussing youth in congregate care (I support the trainers so I don’t need to be attentive, plus I have been in this training 10+ times). Interesting stuff, but Kings speculation is much more interesting.

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January 29, 2025 10:52 am

Loved listening to the podcast, and it definitely aligned with a lot of my feelings. After a day to think about it, here’s where I’m at.

I agree that Fox’s ceiling on this team is an All Star/Fringe All Star. That still makes him not only our best guard, but one of if not the best guard in the Sac Kings era. I love what Ellis has shown, I love Monk, and I’m excited about Carter’s flashes. But I don’t think Monk will ever be regularly considered for the All Star team, and both Ellis and Carter would need to take huge leaps. Neither of them are as good now as Fox was at that point in his career. And none of them demand double teams the way Fox does.

Money and fit are another issue entirely. Because they aren’t as good as he is, none of those three guards will probably be making max contracts, unless, again, one of the young guys makes a huge leap. So if you are looking at contract value, a strong argument can be made for Monk and Ellis being better deals. (Not having more value. None of them would come close to returning what we can get for Fox.) So you can argue that moving Fox lets us use our money more wisely elsewhere, but more on that later.

As far as fit, Fox and DD together have been a problem, and I think it’s possibly one of the reasons that Fox wants to go. Monk is a better 3pt shooter, but a huge drop off on defense. Ellis is much better on defense, and three-pt shooting, but isn’t nearly as talented overall. Fox draws double and triple teams when he is on. Monk and Ellis do not. The problem isn’t that Fox doesn’t fit with the team, it’s that DD and he don’t fit as well together with the current team. Again, you could trade DD, but he doesn’t have anywhere near the value.

This isn’t news to anyone, but instead of building around their two best players, the Kings created a team that literally makes it harder for Fox to play his best game. The team as currently build actually makes Fox’s value to us less than it would be to other, better constructed teams. So, okay, trading him for a piece/pieces that fit better along with draft picks could make sense.

Here, though, is where I am going to argue with what seems to be a popular sentiment around here. If your big complaint with Fox is that he isn’t the alpha to lead a team to the championship, trading him isn’t going to get you that. I’ve been studying all the trade proposals floating around from actual media analysists, and we aren’t going to get a pick that will likely be top 5 even, unless we get really lucky with the ping pong balls. We also aren’t going to get an All Star player at a position of need. If we trade Fox now, at best, we are going to get several draft picks that will probably end up being in the 10-15 range and some younger players with potential at hopefully positions of need, and depending on the deal, cap space.

That basically means that after the Fox trade, we are going to start Monk, Ellis, DD, Keegan, and Domas, along with a deeper bench and more draft picks. Our backcourt bench will be Carter and Huerter and maybe some other young guard we get back. The team will be about as good or maybe slightly better/slightly worse than it is now. And other than more draft picks, we still won’t have much to trade. I know there are probably a bunch of people right who are saying, no way, we’re going to be back some young stud, Amen, Franz, etc. And if that happens, I will totally eat crow. If we actually manage to trade Fox for a younger all star level player at a different position making the same or less money, I will gladly eat crow.

But in my pretty pessimistic opinion, this isn’t about making the team a lot better, or stocking up first round draft picks, or rebalancing. It’s about Vivek saving money. I love that he kept the Kings in Sacramento, and I love what he does for the community. But I also think that he is more than happy to keep filling the arena seats with a product that is just good enough to make the playoffs. I believe that three years from now, we are going to be a worse team as a result of this trade and Vivek’s meddling. I moved to Utah more than twenty years ago, and I’ve always stayed a Kings fan. I still am, but honestly, I think that if this trade goes the way I expect it to, the Jazz will have a brighter future than the Kings.

Which brings me back to trading Fox. I like him. I like watching him play. I like having two of the top players in the NBA, who are also really great people, on my team. There are lots of other Kings players I like watching and rooting for as well, but Fox and Domas are just truly fun to watch. Would I trade that for a team with a legitimate shot at winning a championship? In a heartbeat. Do I think that trading Fox is going to get us significantly close to that? I don’t.

If I was running the team, I would look at all the offers, and ask for the sun, the moon, and the stars. If I got back something that blew me away, especially if it included a player close to Fox’s ability at a position of need, I’d take it. If not, I’d make whatever moves I could to improve the team now (protecting my picks if possible) and see how far we can get with what we have.

Then, in the summer, with more teams bidding, a clearer idea of what we have and need, and time to make plans, I would come up with a logical Danny Ainge type of plan, and shop as many players as I needed to to create a competitive team going forward.

Just my two cents and I hope the Kings prove me wrong.

RobHessing
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January 29, 2025 10:54 am
Reply to  SavageBeast

comment image

BuiltToSpill
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January 29, 2025 11:22 am
Reply to  SavageBeast

This isn’t far from my thought process, too. I’m not thrilled by the proposed returns for Fox. But I also have been resigned to the fact that Fox will not be a King in 2025-26 since sometime last season, just looking at how the salary cap was going to play out.

Totally happy with entertaining offers now and waiting for a summer bidding war if they don’t like it. The main caveat there being that you really don’t want to piss Fox off and end up with him telling teams he won’t resign if he gets traded to them. The more teams we can pull into a bidding war, the better.

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January 29, 2025 11:39 am
Reply to  BuiltToSpill

The more teams we can pull into a bidding war, the better.

Exactly. Which is why the offseason would probably be better. The trade deadline used to be better before the CBA. But now, the summer is when contracts come off the books, teams are looking to retool for a run like the Knicks did last summer. Right now there aren’t a lot of teams with the right combination of assets and need. Not to mention that many teams know they probably aren’t going to the playoffs this year, and teams looking to make room, don’t have a lot of time to make trades.

I’m probably wrong, but I’m still not completely convinced that Fox couldn’t end up staying around if we ended up being good enough to win a playoff round.

UpgradedToQuestionable
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January 29, 2025 3:00 pm
Reply to  SavageBeast

Couple of things:

Draft picks: The Kings haven’t been particularly successful but aren’t shabby. Of the Last 5 picks are Keegan, Hali, maybe Devin Carter are first rounders to counter the Davion Mitchell pick, which wasn’t terrible (forget Sengun, other teams missed) but didn’t pan out. Sac offloaded the 2023 pick to dump salary (Richaun Holmes). If Kings get a the opportunity for a 3-9 pick (Top 2 are usually set) you still have to develop that player, in your system. And you are looking at a 19 or 20 year old. That’s fine for a rebuild, but otherwise doesn’t fit the short term.

If you look at available “stars” in age range (former All-Stars) – and y’all mentioned some, you left off Julius Randle, Zion Williamson, Andrew Wiggins and … Ben Simmons. I’ll also include Jamal Murray. I could see any, yes any, of those players being sent to Sacramento. Just food for thought. McNair ain’t Vlade, but Vivek is close enough. Lauri would be my first choice, but that’s a Summer thing.

And I’ve harped on this before and will again: what’s the reasonable goal here? To me: competitive team, playoff contenders and blue moon frequency noise makers for the Larry O’Brien. The West is tough, this franchise makes it much tougher. Get good before you become very good. Right now – with a mostly healthy squad, Sacramento is two games above .500 with an interim Coach. That’s the reality. Fox leaving doesn’t make them better and maybe some return of players provides depth and length. Maybe.

Adamsite
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January 29, 2025 12:43 pm
Reply to  SavageBeast

Very good post.

HoustonJP
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January 29, 2025 3:41 pm
Reply to  SavageBeast

Excellent SB.

High Rec.

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