March Madness Preview: NBA Draft 2022 Prospect Watch

There’s Chet and there’s everyone else. Tari Eason looks pretty good too, as I elaborate on below in the context with which Kings fans ought to view this tourney…..

I am done talking about this team for a while, one week break earned, 3000+ words is more than enough opinion. 😉

If you understand the way winners think you already know this. It is not enough to fill in the gaps, add secondary talent to Fox and Ox. You don’t go yard by squaring around to bunt. Here’s a plan guyz, lets go get Joe Harris….or Jonathon Isaac as our next bold addition. That’s the strategy for the modest low T competitor who aims for respectality instead of glory. 

When it comes to the draft, Chet Holgren or bust. LFG. Do you know the best place for Chet to further his career and cement his legend as the Slim Reeper? It is in SAC or HOU. In both spots there is a bruiser in the paint already, Sabonis and Sengun, to absorb the physicality so he can focus on what he does best. Similar to how Allen facilitated the transition of Evan Mobley. 

Whether there was validity to our GM orchestrating Ty to SAC by steering him from other teams picking before us, selling him hard on why our destination made the most sense on and off the court — future earning pontential and lifestyle — our GM should so scheme if we land between picks #2 to #5. 

Compel the agent to make his client unavailable to tryout with teams other than yours. Invent a phantom injury. Hoard the medicals. Resort to sly gamesmanship and apply the maxim “all is fair in love and war” 

When you suck balls for a decade and a half and have a Booze Hound impersonating a coach, the latest act to this nightmare, too scared to make live ball play calls, too content to be a ref antagonist and nothing more, delegating timeouts to assistants, oblivious to the suck that emanates from his aura, saying “you know” 69X in an 8:00 post-game, exemplifying a masterful communication style that would “never” fall on deaf ears, you are in a figurative war.  

And you are losing. 

Alvin Gentry epitomizes losing and failure, a has been who never was. He would lead the Bucks and Suns to the play-in. Tyronne Lue has led LAC (36-35) to the 8th seed with PG playing 24 games and Kawhi zero. No one can convince me that LAC, who start Batum, Morris, Zubac, Coffey and Reggie Jackson, with Mann, Kennard and Hartenstein off the bench are 10 games better than SAC (25-45). 

What is the difference? The answer is obvious. It is coaching, it is in-game adjustments, it is KYP, knowing your personnel, KTP, knowing their personnel, it is intuition and gut, wisdom in the solar plexus, tuning in, listening to, trusting and acting on, to influence the outcome favorably. 

Can the post games be canceled already? Why does an outgoing substitute need to be given a platform, so we can hear his vapid ramblings and know what not to look for in the next coach? 

The Old Man said versus CHI was Donte’s best game “by far”. His performance was a mere extension of what he’s been providing in glimpses, undermined by the idiot in charge. He is implying he’s been far less as a player to justify his decision to play him behind a 32 year old journeyman shooting 15% from 3s. 

Donte should have been starter from Day One and no later than his 14 point game vs OKC, 4-6 from 3s, +20 in 22 minutes, as he was rounding into form, if that standard was required. Since then, Donte continuing to receive second class treatment, often not put into the game until 2nd quarter, we lost 5 out of 6 before last night with Holiday being useless, NOP losing 4 in a row, LAL collapsing, affording us the chance, after all this time, to claw our way into the play-in if the coach was not dumb AF. 

If you want to say Holiday made sense initially, to facilitate the transition of Sabonis, sharing the floor with a familiar face with familiar game, and we needed Holiday’s shooting to replace Ty and Buddy, that is fair, but there was NO reason to etch him in stone relative to the (superior) alternatives. 

Then after his performance went further south, just like with Buddy, this coach doubles down on the futility: 29 minutes vs DAL, 28 minutes vs NYK, 31 minute vs DEN, all losses. Holiday has NO future with the team, NO shot, black hole tendencies, yet the coach treats him like royalty. 

One month ago Davion was inserted as starter by default due to players out, and he was instrumental. He relished the role, hand to glove. He embraced the opportunity to check the best point of attack initiator. Circumstances forced the coaches hand and called into question his lineup choices. This situation with Donte and Holiday is no different, more evidence against, exposing the fraudulence and stubborness of the decision maker. 

Imagine you are the GM. You had a glorious deadline. You brought in the reinforcements, turned water to wine, to allow for end of a season surge. All you need is reasonable minded coach to implement the plan, to be on the same page as you. 

Is it too much to ask your subordinate not to royally eff it up? 

Trading Buddy and Ty cleared the path for your coveted lottery pick to be more instrumental with his awesome burst moves to the rack and unrelenting defense. Donte is a guy you have targeted for two years for his poise and presence and sturdiness and timely shots. Donte is the glue and the scrapper, the missing link to help a disparate team to coalesce. He is better as off the ball defender than Ty, which makes him elite. His freelance ability to anticipate and harass is incredible. He deserves the chance to play through the rough patches too because he is returning from injury and can be neutral to positive player when his shot is amiss. 

You know what I would do when the Big Ragu launches a brick? 

Keep him in the game. 

Donte is coming from championship culture, championship team habits are all he knows, see his college career as well, giving him instant credibilty with teammates who have known a lot of losing. This is obvious to anyone not on a bender or in between. 

We know this coach is good friends with Johnny and Jimmy B, so what is obvious to a sober thinker may escape his foggy mental grasp. 

How else to explain guaranteeing your demise by elevating Holiday over Davion and Donte, belying your boss, probably infuriating him, treating a throw-in like the second coming. To add injury to insult, the coach can not take credit for Donte performance into the starting unit; he knows it, hence the backhanded compliment. 

The intrigue (and fun) of scouring the NCAAs, tuning to March Madness is to find the nuggets, and to establish the value of our pick in the range where we are inclined to pick, so we can get on with it already, wheel and deal and steal: (1) Siakam or (2) Pascal or (3) #43 for TOR (4) TBD, as long as TBD, not THT, is a player also on the same quality tier as Fox and Ox, not below.

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. If Player A is fairly enticing, but you envision a counterpart falling madly in love, admitting as much through subtext, you have the makings of a fruitful negotiation and an asymetric opportunity. I have done almost NO draft research but three players could have other GMs acting irrationally, smitten by the love bug, deluded by a temporary crush, lost in the fog of exuberant affection, hence becoming vulnerable prey to our predatory GM:

Shaedon Sharpe 
Nikola Jovic 
Tari Eason 

Sharpe was supposed to play for Kentucky, but best laid plans and all. He has +7 wingspan (6’6”; 7’0’) and a 45 inch vertical. What is cool about this dude, beside his hairdo, is for an amazing athelte he has polish to his game, step backs, side steps, atypical sophistication. Green and Kuminga were the last phenomenal athletes to go high in the draft. Sharpe has relative tree trunks for legs compared to Green. Kuminga was not nearly as crafty with his face up game as Sharpe. 

If hyping him thusly, why not nab him with the 5th or 6th pick or thereabouts? Exactly. This is the value of a superior talent evaluator at the helm. If Sharpe can become the best athlete on your team from Day One, a multi positional defender, best projected player in 2-3 years, joining Ox and Fox, proceed accordingly. Otherwise, pretend he is going to be magnificent in your valuation. Assign inordinate value as if giving up a destined all-star in exchange for one past his prime.  

I would love to declare Player X is the savior. I am not going there, except for Chet, who jumps off the screen as extraordinary. Outside this kid, the value of the top prospects will likely never be higher than before we swap their rights for a third star.  The most exciting aspect of this upcoming NBA draft will likely be when Adam Silver steps to the podium and says “We have a trade to announce….”

Eason is the long wing we need. Conceptually, anyway. He has drawn Jerami Grant comparisons. He impresses with aggressive defensive and offensive mentality. He has managed to log 34 PER and 61% TS%. Our GM likes guys who rank high in steals (2 SPG) and blocks (1 BPG). 79% from FTs is good despite the unorthodox shooting stroke, where he puts the ball near his shoulder before launch. Unorthodox shot mechanics did not deter our GM two drafts ago. 

I am not going to say much about Nikola Jovic other than he is frigging good, resemblance to Luka, charismatic with game to match, but it is going to take time to actualize the goodness. The length of time depends on ability to handle the physicality of the league. Many fans have selective memories, as if they knew all along Luka was destined to be one of the GOATs. But his ability to navigate traffic, where he commands his space on the floor, bullying his way to an advantage was not a foregone conclusion before the draft.

I was wrong about Scottie Barnes. I do not mind to admit it, I do not mind a blip on my radar of near perfection, and his play increases the possibility for TOR to trade Siakam. I am still NO fan of Barnes, the methodical tediousness about him, but the guy is a physical freak. I knew he was big, but holy begeezus! At 19, he is the same size as Bam Adebayo. When he fills out he is a modern day Karl Malone. I get why TOR took him over Suggs. 

The more you command your space in advantageous area the more you can do with the skills you possess. Luka makes so many plays because he wards off defenders. He treats defenders like a horses tail treats flies. Barnes is not that different in this regard. This special trait, exerting your physicality with aplomb, applies to Sabonis and what bodes well for Davion. Fox obviously goes wherever he wants to go too, even more so when he lost the excess and the miraculous healing occured. 

Relatedly this is also why Marvin has had such a shockingly shoddy career. Imagine if Marvin liked contact, did not go onto the IR wth a hangnail, gave more than he gets instead of the exact opposite? Imagine if one time he set one respectable pick, then multiply infinitely to estimate the effect on his effectiveness. 

Does Jovic have an NBA body as Davion does, as Luka did, as Barnes does, or is there going to be a protracted waiting period? Will the wait be eternal as with Marvin? Or in the interim, can he be productive, like Mobley? I don’t have defintive answers but I know one man who does or will get them precisely as possible. 

This is the perpetual prevailing theme, then and now, for better or worse, swim or sink, identifying and acquiring players who are able to seize their space through size, strength and speed with the basic fundamentals to execute within this space. This is the name of the game whether you want to bet on Jovic or Eason, Jabari or Chet, Ty or Fox, Luka or Marvin, Buddy or TD, Jones or Holmes, or draft rights for Siakam. 

As an aside as it relates to Scottie Barnes, the awkward behemoth, if Keegan Murray is bigger than HB, he becomes enticing. The listed vitals are one thing but to see recent draftees on the floor against pros is another. Marvin is listed at 240 6’11 but plays two inches shorter and 20 pounds lighter. Woodward was supposed to be an imposing beast with the plus wingspan but it did not translate. Chet may disappear into the background from side silhouette, but seems to play bigger than Mobley, the probable ROY. 

This is an exciting time to be a fan despite the THUD to end this seaon, record wise, and the coach who has no business being in charge, the one regrettable move by a GM who has done almost nothing else erroroneously. 

The excitement is a continuation of the excitement into the deadline and the validation of those excited before the announced trades. Fans have every basis to be confident and hopeful. We have the right man in charge to make the right bet, inclined to think big and deliver big. He’s proven as much with the heist of the Pacers, retaining the pick. He has shown he has the shrewdness and discipline to repeat the feat, emboldened to complete the formidabble task of transforming this sorry franchise. 

A single or double is nice, a line drive into the gap, but nice is not enough. McGenius is looking for more than nice, he is looking for spectacular, to hit another homerun. Siakam for the pick, or Chet with the pick if we get lucky or need to trade up, qualifes. Think big or go home. 

Act transformatively or Vlade. 

Our GM is not going to be content with a dynamic duo. 

He wants to form a triumphant trio. 

Remember where you heard it first. 

Babe Ruth is at the plate again and will be satisfied only to connect with the sweet part of the bat. The same fans who will tell you he is going to swing and miss are the same who thought the deadline would come and go with Buddy for an expiring and Marvin for a second rounder. Don’t listen to them, don’t fall prey to the cynics and pessimists, the glass half-empty crowd, the traumatized fans acting out past traumas, as if Ws and Ls of your favorite team are life and death. 

Being pollyanna without rational foundation is equally suspect, but the teams with whom we may do business are going to underperform in the play-in, playoffs, or be on the outside looking in. It is inevtiable. There is only one team whose season ends the way they ultimately aspire to. The others, 28 teams in total, or as I prefer to view them, potential victims, may get restless and impetuous. This is when we offer relief, dangling hope and better days in form of a high pick, and take Holmes while you are at it. 

It does not matter if it is fools gold or running in mud. It only matters that they buy what we are selling and become fixated on the perceived remedy to their problems. 

We have the consummate negotiator to pull off the ruse, the man who knows that cunning and patience is rewarded, and his masterpiece requires a few more strokes.

To make history it helps to know it, capable to seize the present through knowledge of the past. A few storied threesomes in no particular order include (1) Bird, McHale, Parish. (2) Scottie, MJ, Grant. (3) Giannis, Holiday, Middleton. (4) CP3, Ayton, Booker. (5) Curry, Klay, Green. (6) Curry Klay, Durant. (7) James, Wade, Bosh (8) Bibby, Vlade, Webber. (9) Harden, Westbrook, Durant (10) Parker, Manu, Duncan. 

Two elites are nice, a splendid start, but nicer if you can form a trio of complementary all star talents, in which the third player can be the best on the floor, if not for whole games than significant stretches, with takeover ability and undeniable dominance. 

As good as HB is he does not qualify. He’s a keeper, a pros pro, but he falls short of this lofty designation. He does not demand doubles. He is not a stopper defensively. He never sniffed an Allstar bid. He disappears too frequently, too content not to assert his will and skill upon the outcome. Maybe the third cog can be Davion someday, when his offense catches up to his defense, but hes not there yet. 

We acquired a player on level of Fox when we traded for Sabonis. We formed our dynamic duo brilliantly. The upcoming task is to find one more piece, borrowing from the mold of the most dominant teams in history. Our trio is made complete with Chet, Siakam, or perhaps a darkhouse candidate like Sharpe. Dillon Brooks and Jerami Grant are intriguing talents to ponder. Kyrie Irving and Bradley Beal meet the talent threshold but their contract situations likely preclude acquistion. 

Iit would be nice and almost mandatory to add a two way player to shut down the opponents who have recently torched us, usually a wing: Dimwiddie (36 points), Randle (46 points), Ingram (33 points), Clarkson (45 points), DeRozan, away game (38 points), all outbursts resulting in wins for the opponent.

John Collins does not qualify, as a stopper or a third cog; the talent is not there. He’s a 3.5 who drifts and disappears and has found little chemistry with Young. I don’t think Jabari or Panchero have a lot of appeal, but defer to the GM who has expertise, experience and the advantage of evaluating these prospects in an intimate competitive setting. 

Getting Monk or Portis as free agents, and Keegan Murray is fine and dandy, nothing to sneeze at, following the prescription of the French Lick Legend, but I do not think it is ambitious enough. We want to be so damn good when operating at, say, 70% capacity, due to injury, which inevitably occur, as in the case of DEN without Murray, GSW without Green, MEM without Brooks, we are able to win 45+ games and qualify for a top seed. Not only do we want want to end the ignominious streak in indisputable style, we want to create margin for error, too good for the play-in if and when things go less than optimally. 

This necessitates a third star, better than HB, while retaining him. This is the mission, more than tickering around the edges. This is my prediction also of what is to come, formulating a grand design that manifests into grander form. 

We already have one of the best bigs in the game and one of the best guards in the game. It is strategically appropriate we complement this duo with one of the best wings in the game (#43) or a generational talent (Chet) that transcends positional limitiation.

The game vs CHI was a taste of what it is to come, our probable best win of the season, without the third head of the hydra, and with the coach stumbling his way into a big game from his 4th or 5th rated guard. Even with this messy incomplete picture, the masterpiece is taking shape. 

The analytical underdog is in the zone, rising in authority and power. He is close to the realization of an audacious vision to endear him to a city and fanbase for a lifetime. The basketball world will watch in jaw dropped awe and admiration of the artistry brought to fruition. Eat your heart out, Aldeman Era.