2022 NBA Draft Profile: Jabari Smith Jr.

NBA Position: Forward

General Info: 18-year-old Freshman, played at Auburn University. From Tyrone, GA. Son of former Sacramento King Jabari Smith.

Measurables: 6’10, 225 lbs, 7’1 wingspan.

2021-22 Season Statistics: 16.9 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.1 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 1.9 TPG (34 games played, 28.8 minutes a contest), 42.9% FG, 42.0% 3P, 79.9% FT

All hyperlinks in this profile are video clips showcasing the skills discussed.

Jabari Smith Jr. entered his freshman season at Auburn as a promising sharpshooter who many hoped would thrive in the Tigers’ fast-paced offense and gritty, switch-heavy defensive system.

Considered a mid-lottery pick by most evaluators in November, Smith quickly rocketed up the 2022 NBA Draft boards by showcasing outrageous shotmaking talents and strong on-ball defense at a rare size for that combo of skillsets. While the 6’10 Smith has some significant areas for improvement in his offensive game that make him somewhat of an unusual selection at the top of the draft, his silky smooth deep shot and high motor on both ends of the court make him an easy prospect to bet on, and so much of his game will translate immediately to the NBA level. Smith is almost certainly out of reach for the Sacramento Kings at pick #4, but in my book, he’s the best fit and the best long-term talent for the Kings in this draft class.

It’s not hyperbolic to say that Smith is the best shooting big prospect that I have scouted. His rhythm, quickness, and body control on his shot are excellent, and his release is fluid and so high that it’s basically unblockable. He’s got a fadeaway shot that few players his age can master and he’s a truly dangerous shooter off the dribble. You couldn’t ask for a better floor spacer at the next level, and his efficiency numbers (per Synergy Sports) back that all up:

• 45.2% on all spot-up shots, 94th percentile in the country (133 possessions).
• 40.2% on all jumpshots, 84th percentile (241 possessions).
• 40% on shots off the dribble, 85th percentile (105 possessions).
• 41.4% on all catch-and-shoot shots, 84th percentile (133 possessions); a whopping 83% of his catch-and-shoot shots were considered “guarded” by Synergy. On “open” catch-and-shoot shots, he hit 65.2% on them, 100th percentile.
• 79.9% on free throws, 164 attempts.

The fact that he was this efficient while leading a top 10 Auburn team in scoring and shot attempts with SEC defenders focused on him—and at just 18 years old—is incredible. And while he has some offensive concerns around the basket (more on that in a bit), it’s worth noting that he was that efficient while over 65% of his shots in the half-court were jumpshots. He’s an ELITE shooter, and he’ll be able to do this in the NBA from the jump.

Auburn absolutely relied on Smith’s shooting ability to make their offense work. The Tigers were 49th in the nation in three point attempts, but 114th in three point makes and 274th in three point percentage. Smith led the team in shots taken, and the next five Tigers on that list shot a combined 28% from three. Only one other rotation player on Auburn shot over 36% from deep. They needed Smith to shoot, both as a shot creator and off the catch.

The team also relied on Jabari as a safety valve on plays when they failed to get anything else going. As the impeccable Jerry Reynolds said on the Kings Herald podcast last week, “the guards he played with probably helped him less than any set of guards in the college game… they all thought they were Jaden Ivey.” If Wendell Green or K.D. Johnson couldn’t get anything going (and boy, did they try!), they’d often pass to Smith and let him figure it out… and when he can pretty much shoot over any defender, he’d often make it work. He finished in the 71st percentile for success in isolation plays this year.

So Smith has the hard part down; his shooting ability is absurd for his age, and given his size and pull-up ability, that shot will give him an exceptionally high floor in the modern NBA. But to fully capitalize on this golden shot, he has to improve on multiple areas with the basketball in his hands.

The obvious one is that he needs to find ways to put pressure on the rim. Only 32% of his shots in the half court came at the rim; on non-post-up plays, he shot just 52%, 48th percentile. It’s a weird shot diet for a 6’10 forward, but Smith doesn’t have anywhere near the same comfort, awareness, or touch at finishing around the basket as he does on jumpers. While he’s deceptively fluid on defense, that fluidity and top-end speed don’t show up as much on drives. He doesn’t have a dynamic first step and isn’t an explosive leaper; he had some highlight dunks, but he’s not a huge threat to finish above defenders in traffic.

Smith proved time and time again that his shot and size will give him a go-to creation move, so he’s got a baseline for success others with these concerns don’t; but if he wants to be a true three-level scoring threat and take full advantage of his shooting gifts, he needs to get much more comfortable and confident taking the ball to the basket, even if he doesn’t have the burst to ever be a big-time driver.

He also needs to continue to improve as a ballhandler. While he has highlights of dribbling up the court and launching a three off the bounce, I expect quick defenders will take advantage of his high dribble and clunkiness early in his career. Teams went at him when he was dribbling in the open-court.

Finally, Smith needs to continue to improve as a passer. He had his moments throughout the year that showcased both a flare and a willingness to make the right passes, but it wasn’t always consistent. Later in the year, he really started punishing double teams, but he’s got a ways to go with both his decision making and his ball control. Both Paolo Banchero and Chet Holmgren have better cases as primary (Paolo) or secondary (Chet) playmakers and ballhandlers than Smith does at this point. He’ll need to continue to show improvement here whether or not he’s cast as a #1 option on his future team.

Smith’s defensive tenacity and success, especially on the perimeter, will also be a big boon to his future NBA team. It’s weird to see a player at his size play so aggressive on the perimeter, but he’s deceptively agile for his size and uses his wingspan to full advantage. He’s a truly dangerous big-small defender, and was excellent at switching on pick-and-rolls and containing guards with his quick feet, quicker hands, and good footwork.

His defensive range is pretty remarkable, and he had strong moments guarding everyone from LSU big Tari Eason down to Alabama guard and leading scorer Jaden Shackelford. And the Synergy defensive numbers, while always a tad questionable, back up the eye-test – on all on-ball defensive situations, Synergy has him holding opponents to 25.7% shooting overall (95th percentile). He’s tenacious in a way that few one-and-done players are, and almost always plays opponents tough and with physicality. And while everyone remembers him getting posterized by Miami’s Isaiah Wong in the NCAA Tournament, he got him back a few possessions later. He’s not a defender who runs from challenges.

That said, it may take time before Smith is as effective against bigger forwards at the next level. He had some strong moments against physical, traditional bigs, so I wouldn’t call his post defense a weakness, but I think his tools shone brightest on the perimeter. And while the ideal fit next to Domantas Sabonis would be an elite rim protector, Smith shouldn’t be expected to solve their issues at protecting the basket early in his career. He had some strong one-on-one and help blocks, but this wasn’t his role (Walker Kessler nabbed an insane 4.6 blocks per game). He will need to continue to develop better instincts on this end.

Smith was also a promising rebounder at Auburn, snagging 10.3 rebounds per 40 minutes and showcasing his length and toughness on the defensive glass. He had just 0.9 offensive rebounders per game, but that’s hardly surprising given how little time he spent around the basket on offense. While he, like any young big prospect, may struggle with NBA size early on, I trust in his toolset and physicality to make him a strong board man.

Given his areas for improvement, Smith does seem an unusual choice for the draft’s top selection, or at least an unusual choice for most teams that end up with a #1 draft pick. Unless he shows exponential growth in his ability to score at the rim and as a playmaker—a possibility given his age and motor, but not a guarantee—he’s hardly a safe bet to be a huge three-level scoring threat or primary initiator at the next level. The Orlando Magic seem a team absent a true top scoring threat, unless Jalen Suggs or Cole Anthony take huge steps in their efficiencies next year. Their young team absolutely needs a big-time shooting threat (they were 28th in three point percentage last year), but absent a true creator showing up, Smith may be miscast as the offensive savior for the squad.

I don’t mean to undersell Smith’s potential here; his shooting ability is incredible given his age, and what he did at Auburn can translate immediately to the next level. He’s got an exceptionally high floor in the modern NBA game. But in reality, while I think Smith is absolutely in the same tier of prospect as Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero, and Jaden Ivey, I also think Jabari’s case for the #1 pick is more team dependent than Banchero’s or Holmgren’s. He’ll be best on a team that already has a primary shot creator in place, ideally somewhere with multiple playmakers on the roster that can utilize him as the most dangerous 6’10 off-ball creator possible, while bringing along his driving and playmaking skills. I think the best fit for Smith is and has always been the Sacramento Kings, and I think the best fit for the Kings is Jabari Smith Jr.

A team with De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis is begging for a shooting big with Smith’s efficiencies. Imagine a Fox/Sabonis pick-and-roll with Smith dragging attention to OR open in the opposite corner. Imagine pick-and-pop or screen and pop opportunities between Smith and Sabonis, or transition plays where Fox and Smith are bolting down the court together. Imagine what Mike Brown could do on defense with a guy at Smith’s size and on-ball switchability. Sacramento has the creators in place to optimize Smith without putting huge pressure on him to develop as a creator immediately.

I’ve been a fan of Jabari Smith for a bit now, and he’s been at the top of my KingsCentric draft board for months. I think his impact for the Kings, even/ideally as the third option, would absolutely make him worth drafting with a top pick. Sadly, it seems impossible that Smith will fall to the Kings at 4, and the price to move up to draft Smith—if a price even exists—would be very high. But if Monte McNair wants to swing for the stars and go all in on the Fox/Sabonis pairing, Jabari Smith Jr. is a near ideal fit with the Kings current core, and offers exceptional upside on both ends of the court.