Tonight, the Kings and Warriors face off in Sacramento for the first (real) time since last April’s devastating Game 7 defeat. If the energy and intensity from mere preseason games is anything to go by, this should be a fun one. Plus, it’s front of a national audience on ESPN!
Let’s talk Kings basketball!
When: Friday, October 27th, 7:00 PM PT
Where: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
TV: ESPN, NBC Sports California
Radio: Sactown Sports 1140
Three in the Key
A Budding Rivalry
Despite being two of the closest teams in the NBA by proximity (only the Lakers/Clippers and Knicks/Nets are closer), the Kings and Warriors have never really had a true rivalry. That might have changed after last season, with both teams performing well and facing off in one of the most entertaining first round series in recent memory. The Warriors would end up winning the series in 7 games on the back of an all-time performance from Stephen Curry, but the Kings earned a lot of respect for how close they came to knocking off the defending champions in their first playoff series in almost two decades.
This season, the Kings aren’t going to be a surprise, and the matchups between these two teams are going to be even more intense because of what happened last season. The intensity of their final preseason matchup a couple of weeks ago felt less like a scrimmage and more like another playoff game, with Steph Curry hitting a game winning three in the final seconds. It was the only real dress rehearsal of the preseason and it left a sour taste in many Kings fans mouths despite the result ultimately not mattering.
Tonight, the Kings have a chance to set things right and also win a critical game against a Pacific Division rival. The Pacific Division might just be the toughest in the entire league with every team in it expected to make the playoffs, so wins against any of these opponents are extra important. This will also be the first of three matchups that the Kings will have against the Warriors in the first month of the season alone.
Looney vs. Sabonis
Going into last season’s playoff matchup, all eyes were on the duel between Stephen Curry and De’Aaron Fox, but the biggest difference maker actually proved to be the battle between Kevon Looney and Domantas Sabonis in the paint. While Sabonis had an All-NBA level regular season, he struggled in the playoff series against Looney’s size and strength. Looney also devastated the Kings on the offensive glass, averaging 5.3 offensive rebounds and 15.1 total rebounds for the series. Sabonis was a big part of the Warriors defensive game plan in the playoffs and they worked especially hard to disrupt Sacramento’s dribble hand-offs while also daring Sabonis to shoot from the perimeter where he’s less comfortable. The Kings will need to find different ways than usual to get Sabonis going, and also will need to focus on keeping Looney off the glass to prevent second and third opportunities.
New Additions
Both teams still feature the same core pieces but there are a few new faces as well. For the Warriors, the biggest addition is Chris Paul, acquired in a trade with Washington for Jordan Poole. Paul isn’t what he once was, and won’t provide the microwave scoring burst that Poole could provide, but he provides a steady presence and another leader on the floor for Steve Kerr. Draymond Green is out tonight dealing with a sprained ankle he suffered in practice, so Paul is currently in the starting lineup but will probably eventually slide into a 6th Man role once Green comes back. With Paul in the starting lineup, the Warriors are a bit smaller in the backcourt and the Kings should look to take advantage.
Sacramento will once again be without Trey Lyles, who had a nice series against Golden State as part of some small ball lineups, so we will probably once again see Sasha Vezenkov slide into that role. Vezenkov had a solid debut with 8 points, including a couple threes, but we’ll see how he handles the Warriors potentially hunting him on the defensive end. JaVale McGee and Chris Duarte also had solid debuts off the bench for Sacramento and should provide a couple different looks against the Warriors that the Kings didn’t necessarily have last year. McGee’s size and length in particular could be a nice antidote if Looney gets a little too loose on the boards again.
Prediction
The first round goes to Sacramento as De’Aaron Fox takes over in crunch time and beats Curry in his own shoes.
Kings 114, Warriors 109
Young guns will fire away tonight. Look for Keegan to have a big game. Kings win.
There’s a chance I’ll be at my Uncle/Aunt’s house in Palo Alto watching the game since League Pass blacks me out of this one and they have ESPN. They are picking up my folks at SFO this morning since they are returning from a Japan trip, and if they decide to spend the night they will watch the game too. It will be dueling fan base since my folks and I root for the Kings while my Uncle and Aunt root for the Warriors.
Hoping the Kings come out with that hunger to beat them after losing the playoff series and that close preseason game.
I’d wager that you and your parents could probably woop your aunt & uncle’s asses.
Time to exercise the demons.
Tim curry from Legend? Lol
Ron Perlman from Hellboy…
I want this one SO badly. GET LOUD G1C!!
I’ll be at Tom’s Watch Bar cause tix are insaneballs.
GO KINGS!!!
Dubs come in, and now this time for real.
How to beat them? We all know the deal.
Put shackles on Curry;
Score points in a flurry.
There’s a bright purple beam to reveal!
+1 Let’s give “Mr. Night,night” a NIGHT LIGHT!
okay, who guards Curry during the first minutes of the 1st and 3rd quarters?
Fox. It’s time for him to step up on the defensive side of the court if this team is going to make real noise this season.
end of game, maybe. But I’d go with either Duarte or Davion to start.
that whole thing where Curry checks out as soon as Davion checks in, and then Curry checks in as soon as Davion checks out …. enough of that. gotta stick on Curry every minute he’s on the court.
So you are not starting Huerter? I can see your argument for possibly starting Mitchell when it comes to the eye test, but Duarte hasn’t proven anything on the defensive side of the court. Guess who has the best DWS and DRtg of the three of them.
It’s Huerter, and that doesn’t take into the argument that he’s head and shoulders the better offensive player of the three.
Tbh this just seems like an instance where advanced metrics completely fail. You cannot tell me that Huerter contributes more defensively than Davion, IDC what the numbers say.
I’m fine with Huerter being the starting SG as far as the season goes, I just think situationally against elite scoring guards Davion should be playing starter minutes in those games. He just saps their energy unlike anyone I’ve seen.
Well, if Davion doesn’t enter the game for the first 7 minutes of each half, that’s 15 minutes right there where Curry gets to run Fox around in circles, unless Duarte gets the initial assignment.
I think the problem is defensive in played completely one on one. There are so many switches by both the offense and defense that if Mitchell really were a Curry stopper, Kerr would simply do everything in his power to switch him off of Curry.
Curry runs off so many picks and curls that rarely is the original defender the one who is contesting his shot. He doesn’t even initiate the offense when he’s got Green (and now) Paul on the court. He functions more as a SG.
Except when you look at the substitution patterns, Kerr was avoiding the Curry-Davion matchup.
Are you in the mindset that Brown couldn’t recognize a situation like that and keep Mitchell in longer? Was he outsmarted that easily? Or should we take the fact that Brown benched Mitchell in favor of TD as an indication of how he thought best to beat the Warriors?
I’m just a fan, but I’m pretty sure Brown has a better understanding of basketball AND the Warriors than all of us combined on this site.
Jobu’d
Playing TD was a move by the analytics guys, not Brown.
He signed off on it, ultimately.
It was also a bully ball tactic where TD was hacking Curry and picked up 5 or 6 fouls in 15 minutes. Once the shock was gone Curry toyed around with TD like he was a 6th grader.
Come on dude, all I’m saying is you have to guard Curry.
And all I’m saying the everyone in the league tries to guard Curry and if Mitchell were the answer, he’d be defending Curry on every play he’s on the court. That fact that he doesn’t tells me that Brown thinks he can’t or it won’t make a positive difference.
I can agree that Mitchell on Curry makes more sense than Huerter, but it doesn’t on the offensive end where the gap is wider.
Maybe Mitchell makes Curry work more, but the Kings as whole would suffer on the other end of the floor more. Their offense relies on Huerter’s spacing and DHO game with Sabonis. The net rating may be worse for the Kings.
Not against the dubs, I wouldn’t.
If Green is out and the back court is Curry & CP, you could definitely start Davion. I’d put him on Paul, hoping that he would slow GS getting into their sets, and running plays. Even on plays where Paul gets him, Mitchell is still going to frustrate him, and a frustrated Chris Paul is not the best Chris Paul.
This is where you’ll see the unpenalized flop.
I agree, I don’t think most fans properly appreciate the impact of constant defensive pressure on the ball-handler as the effects accumulate throughout the game and are not immediately apparent.
It is tiring, irritating, and it leads to a few few unforced turnovers/bad decisions when someone is constantly hounding you while you dribble and run up the court (making someone take additional dribbles each trip adds up too, think of it like a PG with a pitch count).
Couple this with an up-tempo game plan and you can get an advantage on these older teams by wearing them out (or at least teams that rely on a few older players to produce game in, game out).
That’s a very solid point. Good defense may not necessarily be about getting flashy stops but rather 4 quarters of attrition that force a team to make 4th quarter mistakes that cost them the game.
I agree. Davion is the only player in the league I’ve ever seen make Curry visibly uncomfortable in 1v1 situations. Even if he scores 0 points, you gotta think he at least takes 8-10 points away from Curry per 36 minutes. I’d play Davion 30+ minutes every time we play the Warriors off the strength of his defensive contributions alone.
I like Davion and all, but if were really capable of reducing the league’s best pure scorer 8-10 points per game, he’d be DPOY candidate, or at the minimum on a All-NBA defensive team, of which he got ZERO votes for last season. I think we may have a bit of purple tinted glasses when it comes to Mitchell’s defensive chops.
Honestly, is there anyone in the league who slows down Curry by 8-10 points per game? Is there a Curry stopper and is Mitchell even in that conversation? If his defense was that good, he’d be out there like Tony Allen, where his complete lack of offensive game doesn’t matter.
Or it could simply be that Coach Brown realizes there really is no stoping Curry, so you might as well try and outscore them with your best offensive players on the court as much as possible.
Honestly I think the main reason is because the team didn’t want to change the starting 5. Secondary reason was because of the DHO tandem, but that went nowhere against the dubs in the playoffs. Now Keegan is in his 2nd year and ready to take on a bigger offensive role, and newcomer Duarte already has a rapport with Sabonis.
I think newcomer Duarte may eat a ton of Mitchell’s minutes, especially if the later continues to shoot poorly from deep. Monte went out and got more scoring power in Sasha and Duarte. I think the plan is to run and gun opponents off of the floor.
Not really. If you listen to Brown’s comments, he’s saying they have to improve defensively even if doing so would mean not scoring quite as much.
Sort of related to that, Fox had a poor shooting night in Utah, but I think with increased defensive activity, his scoring efficiency may take a hit. There is enough scoring around him that he doesn’t need to get twenty-five a night.
If his numbers go down as a result of his higher intensity on defense, it’ll probably cost him All Star/All NBA consideration, but the Kings will win more games. It won’t faze Fox, he’s no prima donna.
That’s a good point. If Fox had to sacrifice a bit of scoring for more defensive intensity, I think it helps the Kings.
+1 on this point. I also think 82 games of Fox trying hard on both ends of the floor will give him Jimmy Butler levels of stamina come playoff time. He may be scoring 20ppg in the early season while locking down on defense, but by the end of the year he may push that up to his usual 25+. If he does, watch TF out.
Re: All-Defensive votes, I think a lot of that is a matter of name recognition and Davion not getting enough minutes anyway.
And the 8-10 pts argument is impossible for me to prove. But if you watch the possessions when Davion guards Curry, Curry ends up putting up a LOT of bad shots. He’s made a career off making bad shots, but some of the ones against Davion are just downright ugly. I just do not see replacement-level guards doing that to Curry. If Curry takes 20-25 shots a night, I legitimately believe Davion forces 2-4 more misses than 99% of the league. But again, I admit I can’t prove that.
Agreed. Davion isn’t a name brand, but if there’s a guard in the league playing better defense, I’ve not seen him.
As to the offense, Davion is quick and strong enough to blow by Paul or Curry at will. He’ll get shots at the rim, or kick out as the defense collapses. The benefits outweigh the negatives in this situation.
In my mind, Mitchell is an excellent on the dribble defender. He gets in guys faces, moves his feet quickly, and an all around pest, but I can’t say the same for his shot defense.
Maybe someone with better data finding skills can find his shot defense vs. his on ball defense. He just doesn’t strike me as a guy that bothers an off the screen/cut catch and shoot like Curry.
He also doesn’t seem like a guy who jumps passing lanes or gets a lot of tips. He’s just an excellent on ball defender.
It’s true. If he had Marcus Smart’s size and length he’d be 2x DPOY by now but he just can’t contest guys who can shoot over him.
Yeah, I think that is it. Although he’s built like a brick shit house, I also don’t think he has the strength, due to size, to fight through hard screens to contest those shots. He’s not big like the Jrue Holidays, Marcus Smarts, and Tony Allens of the NBA. He also just doesn’t have the wingspan to make up for size, like a Rondo.
Interesting conversation. Tonight, I’m expecting to see Davion matched up with Curry a lot, and when we do, we’ll understand that our coaching staff has learned from its mistakes in Game 7. At least, that’s the story I’ll be telling myself.
It’s been my opinion for a while that team has some defensive specialists and should use them accordingly.
to add: these 3 young players aren’t lockdown guys, but if MB puts them in the right position they should succeed more often than not and by getting more time on the floor they may continue to improve in other areas of the game.
Agreed on all points.
If the Kings want to win in the playoffs-over good teams- Sabonis is going to have to hit his mid range-3. Can he?
I don’t know. But that is the most important thing for the kings to move forward. That and some
more D.
I think they have a number of strategies ready to counter the way Looney sagged off Domas. First, yeah, take the shot. Second and third, that will be interesting to see.
That’s what I’m most interested to see tonight. What changes has Brown made in the Sabonis vs Looney matchup. Their play decided the series, IMO.
Question to those who would reply. Who do you think is a better defender Mitchell or Caruso?
100% Caruso.
Yes, it will be interesting to see what Brown does. And of course regular season isn’t playoffs, but hitting that shot is the number one component. Otherwise they’re just gonna continue to sag.
maybe I’m imagining it, but Sabonis looks like he’s shooting form is better, with him doing the follow through gooseneck with his right hand.
Also, he drives me a little bit nuts. That Sabonis always misses the end, one, or when he’s filed by the basket.
OK, so this new microphone on the iPhone is terrible. Ridiculous.
Ducking eh!
His shot was much less flat than it used to be. For Sabonis, if he’s going to be an effective floor-spreader, he’s going to need to shoot threes only when his feet are set, and not when he’s kind of walking into the shot. He doesn’t need to take a ton of them, but if he picks his spots, defending bigs are going to have to cover him on the perimeter.
If he could just get to Brook Lopez level of 3pt development (about 36% on 4 attempts per game) it would be a godsend and really force defenses to adjust.
And that opens up the passing lanes for cutters.
If Sabonis can find a way to score three points on mid-range shots. the Kings will win sixty-five games.
analytics loves that shot
I
am
so
fucking
sick
of
playing
the
god
damned
warriors
Terrific write up Aykis
Is this thing really being televised on both ESPN and NBC Sports California? How does that work? Are there separate broadcast teams, or one for both?
I’d just assume watch it on NBC Sports California, but is there going to be some blackout bs going on since it’s also on ESPN?
Either way, I can’t stand the dubs, so a nice dubs beat down will make my Friday!
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