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How Bubble Results will impact the Kings 2020 Draft Lottery Odds

Let's break down the lottery odds and see why the Kings dismal time in Orlando won't help out their 2020 Draft lottery odds.

Bad news, draft fans - even though the Sacramento Kings have fallen out of Playoff contention and have gone 1-5 in the Orlando Bubble, they haven't improved their odds for the 2020 NBA Lottery. The Lottery odds are locked in place to the standings as of March 11, the date the NBA shut down the season in response to COVID-19.  That leaves the Kings tied for the 12th pick with the New Orleans Pelicans - those same Pelicans who, coincidentally, the Kings were set to play on March 11 before the league shut down.

Before the lottery occurs, the league will break the tie between the teams to decide who will get the 12th pick and who the 13th pick. Per an ESPN report, the teams would split the average of the lottery odds at 12 and 13, but whoever gets the tiebreaker will get the better pick should neither team land in the top four of the lottery. Based on the lottery odds, the 12th pick has a 1.3% shot at the 1st overall selection, and a 6.1% chance at a top 5 pick.

The NBA lottery is a tad different this year than in the past; the odds are flatter, and the Golden State Warriors - the worst team in the league - only have a 14% chance at the top pick and a 40% chance at a top 3 pick. This is a big change in in the odds, as over the last decade the worst team in the league has had a 25% chance for the top pick.

There is one way for the Kings lottery odds to increase, however; if the Phoenix Suns or San Antonio Spurs earn the 8th seed in the Western Conference Playoff picture, their draft selection moves down to the 15th pick. Since both teams are locked in front of the Kings and Pelicans in the lottery order - the Suns at 10, the Spurs at 11 - the Kings and Pelicans would move up one pick, and would then be breaking a tie for picks 11 and 12. So, basically - LET'S GO SUNS OR SPURS!

The lottery will be held on August 25. As the Kings season winds down, we'll have plenty more Draft Coverage leading up to the October 16th draft.

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Justin Lai
1 month ago

GO SUNS! GO SPURS!

T D
1 month ago

If Vlade is the GM, does the draft spot matter?

Ican Hascheezburger
1 month ago
Reply to  1951

It matters to the teams picking after the Kings.

Kevin Lam
1 month ago

Oh, another draft where Vlade is making the decision?
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Rob Yung
1 month ago
Reply to  Klam

F**k it, we deserve this.

andy sims
1 month ago

Regardless of the lottery results, I fully expect the Kings to trade down, for the sole purpose of giving Divac additional time to make a terrible selection.

Ican Hascheezburger
1 month ago
Reply to  andy_sims

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Rik Smits
1 month ago
Reply to  Kosta

Funny as in “haha, he completely fucked the franchise over”-funny?
Haha.

G Naps
1 month ago
Reply to  Kosta

I believe this was on the other site as well….stumbled across it on twitter today

Jeff Bayless
1 month ago

It’s too sad that this is such a familiar place for Kings fans. Rooting for ping pong balls while the other teams are fighting for a championship.

Aman Singh
1 month ago

It honestly doesn’t matter what pick the Kings are drafting at or who the decision maker is making that pick. The Kings will have been to the lottery 14 times after this season and only 2 of those times have we come out of it with a star or potential star. This spans 2 different ownership groups and 3 different GM’s.
 
I personally think the organization needs to clean house. Get rid of everyone in the basketball side of the house, including the scouts. This organization has completely failed in its talent evaluation and drafting. If that doesn’t get fixed, we’re easily looking at another 3 years of missing the playoffs and likely even more to come.

Dale Moore
1 month ago

I haven’t been following whose available for us. Anyone excited about some goodies to be had. I’m sure their are some gems around the 11th – 13th. You would like to be hopeful and I normally am. But Vlade’s batting average is a bad indicator of probable things to come. Still hopefully he may do us real justice some day and pick a winner! This curse she it has gotta stop.

Eric W
1 month ago
Reply to  MadDam

Obviously, it depends on who gets drafted in front of us. I think this draft has some real volatility due to the lack of true top of the draft talents. So while I think all the interesting guys will likely be off the board, there’s a greater than usual chance someone falls. I think the top tier of this draft (such as it is) runs about 8-10 deep. The most interesting guys that I think have a chance to fall from that group to the Kings slot at 12-13 are Vassell (3-and-D wing), Okoro (D wing with playmaking upside), Halliburton (combo guard with great passing, good spot up shooting, and some defensive versatility due to size),

Adam Dieter
1 month ago

I’d love to get Halliburton. He’s my favorite right now.

Vincent Serrato
1 month ago

What are your thoughts on Patrick Williams?

Eric W
1 month ago
Reply to  Chent

I think he’s a big project. He may be able to provide some defensive help early in his career, but he has a long way to go offensively. I can see why some people like him a lot. He hasn’t shot well, but has clean enough form and has hit a few pull-ups. He’s a strong athlete. When I watch his tape though I see his athleticism limited on offense by a lack of decisiveness and a lack of confidence in his skills. He slows down into his jumpers and cuts instead of exploding. He’s kinda part of a big tier of wings offering varying degrees of Meh that I’d be happy to have at 35 but wouldn’t be excited about at 12. With guys like Nesmith, Achiuwa, the Beys, etc.

Vincent Serrato
1 month ago

I only seen 1 of his games and he wasn’t very impressive, I didnt even notice who he was. But, considering he was a bench player, his age, out of all the guys you mentioned he seems to have more potential. His free throw % and mid range pull up seem good, athleticism/body make him more appealing than the rest imo.

All in all I don’t like many people in the 10-20ish range, if at all, more than people down to 40ish range. I feel teams won’t value moving up enough to include any extra value, so we are kind of stuck picking there, so in this case its just hitting on the pick is critical.

Eric W
1 month ago
Reply to  Chent

I fully agree with your last paragraph. That said, there are always opportunities. There are always teams that latch onto favorite guys. There are always teams with more picks than roster spots. There are always teams that need to move money. We may not get the same value as we would in a stronger draft, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t potentially good moves to be made.

Rob Hessing
1 month ago

This front office has sucked (and I mean sucked!) the fun out of prospect prognosticating. What’s the point?

Kings Guru21
1 month ago
Reply to  RobHessing

Perfectly stated and succinct! I like it!

Thomas Amey Jr.
1 month ago

Draft position doesn’t matter a lick with Vlade picking. Not sure who is part of talent evaluation, but until wholesale changes are made, it doesn’t matter. We could land #1 and I would have 100% faith Vlade and Co. would fuck it up, especially this year with no consensus #1 pick.

Adam Dieter
1 month ago

The only thing that will make this lottery more Kangz is if Kings finish behind the Spurs, Suns, and Pels in the final bubble standings and none of them make the playoffs. That would mean the Kings potentially get the 13th pick AND have a worse record than the 3 teams picking in front of them. The ultimate Kangz lottery.

Terance Dass
1 month ago

Hey guys, I havent done much homework on this draft. Anyone I should look at in particular?

Miles W
1 month ago
Reply to  PlayoffModeT

With regards to the Kings? No, not really. It’s not worth your time to do the homework, the pick will be an F.

Carl Spackler
1 month ago
Reply to  PlayoffModeT

Yeah, look for an unskilled big ranked at least 10 spots lower than the Kings draft position.

Kings Guru21
1 month ago
Reply to  Carl

No, that’s for anticipating Vlade. You research the draft to find good players.

Last edited 1 month ago by Kingsguru21
Miles W
1 month ago

With our luck, the Suns or Spurs will move into 8th and then win the lottery…..

Mike Jensen
1 month ago

First post. This is the most talented kings team the Kings have had during this 14 year playoff drought. Unfortunately, the rest of the league has also increased in talent over the years… The blame goes squarely on poor coaching and front office. Keep dreaming about how deep and entertaining a playoff run we would have had in the bubble with Luka Dončić and Michael Malone.

Last edited 1 month ago by JensenV
Adam Dieter
1 month ago
Reply to  JensenV

Not sure this is the most skilled team. The 2013-14 Kings team with DMC, Rudy, and IT might have been better on paper. They had three 20pt scorers and decided to trade IT away for a box of rocks.

G Naps
1 month ago
Reply to  Adamsite

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Maxwell Huss
1 month ago
Reply to  JensenV

Welcome! Not sure if it’s the most talented team in 14 years… I dunno, maybe. Low bar I guess.

The way I look at it is this: Vlade built a team that should win around 40 games. Luke coached them to a prorated total of 33-34 wins.

So Vlade sucks. And Luke sucks more. Any questions?

Rik Smits
1 month ago
Reply to  JensenV

Talent?
The question is how much Joerger made them overachieve vs how much Walton makes them overachieve.

The delta is still quite meh, IMO

Rik Smits
1 month ago
Reply to  RikSmits

Oops: Walton makes them underachieve.
 

Last edited 1 month ago by RikSmits
Rik Smits
1 month ago
Reply to  JensenV

And, welcome, of course!

Greg Lederman
1 month ago

Carmichael talking this AM about how much this ownership group is interested in celebrities, and that is probably why they always fall back to “player-friendly” coaches, made me want to jump off a cliff.

Ican Hascheezburger
1 month ago
Reply to  Gregoryl

BREAKING: Kings hire Kim Kardashian for Front Office position.

Last edited 1 month ago by Kosta
Adam Dieter
1 month ago
Reply to  Gregoryl

That’s all Vivek. Ever notice how many celeb pics he posts all the time with him doing the shaka? He loves to have celebrities sit courtside with him. Part of me thinks him owning the Kings is just an attention seeking device.

Ican Hascheezburger
1 month ago
Reply to  Adamsite

Hey Vivek, here’s a celebrity. A real star is born!

Maybe you can ask him to autograph your playoff ticket–the one featuring the Mavericks and some other team not named Kings.
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Last edited 1 month ago by Kosta
Ruben Kempf
1 month ago
Reply to  Kosta

It would have been an interesting (and likely horrible) experiment how this dude would have done under Luke Walton´s coaching.

Greg Lederman
1 month ago
Reply to  Adamsite

He has to hire a coach that will likely result in some players complaining, and be OK with telling them “sorry…he’s the boss”. Its something Vivek has been unwilling to do so far (ie. Joerger, Karl, etc.)

Henry Clemente
1 month ago
Reply to  Adamsite

I normally would not begrudge Vivek (or anyone) from enjoying the perks of owning an NBA franchise. The problem for me is that all this is cart before horse. How about some track record of success before acting like you’re on top of the NBA world? This all stems from Vivek’s original sin of thinking his Silicon Valley smarts would conquer the NBA, when the reality was that he walked into a den full of sharpened knives where his Jedi powers didn’t work. Every subsequent descision has been a reaction to that. In Vlade, he hired a nice warm security blanket instead of a GM, but that blanket is now threadbare and this franchise’s ineptitue is exposed for the world to see.

There is only one way out of this: Vivek needs to clean house, hire a competent President of BBall Ops, and uninvolve himself. Why, oh why does he not see this? The same hubris? Just fix it! Then he can go ahead and mingle with as many celebs and flash as many shaka signs as his heart desires.

Last edited 1 month ago by Henry
Darren Van Blois
1 month ago

12 or 13 is a good place to pick this year. There is not a clear top tier of talent, but there are a lot of guys who could be solid rotation players and potential starters.

Eric W
1 month ago
Reply to  eddie41

Ehhhhhh, it’s kind of a terrible place to pick. It’s may be a decent place to trade down/out from though.

T D
1 month ago

The Kings weren’t even invited to the Yacht Club party. 🙁

Terance Dass
1 month ago
Reply to  1951

Someone ask Kayte what her opinion on the Sun’s success is.. I guess they learned rather quickly! Smh!

T D
1 month ago
Reply to  PlayoffModeT

“What you don’t understand …”

Greg Lederman
1 month ago
Reply to  PlayoffModeT

Its sad b/c she talks about the Kings players as if they have the mindset that she and the other WNBA players had when she was a player: hard-working, complete focus on getting better, a love for basketball, doing whatever it takes to win, etc. and what she doesn’t understand (wink-wink) is that these guys are soft, self-absorbed and uninspired.

Ican Hascheezburger
1 month ago
Reply to  1951

“If you like piña coladas
And have 14 years of b-ball pain
If you’re not into shilling
If you have half a brain

If you read TKH at midnight
And want Luke to watch the tape
Then I’m the friend that you’ve looked for
Let’s jump ship, and escape”


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Last edited 1 month ago by Kosta
Tom Cutter
1 month ago
Reply to  Kosta

Playoffs!
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curt A
1 month ago

Im more excited about our 153 2nd round picks, woo hoo!

Thomas Amey Jr.
1 month ago
Reply to  KingofNOthing

I’m willing to bet we end up selling some of those off for cash, or worse, more 2nd round picks in the future.

Maxwell Huss
1 month ago
Reply to  SneakerKing

If we use that cash to hire a capable GM, it’s draft capital well spent, imo.

John Navickas
1 month ago
Reply to  SneakerKing

Vlade: Wouldn’t it be awesome if we could get all 30 2nd rounders in the 2023 draft…. bound to get lucky!

Vivek: Great minds think alike!…. How bout a 4 year extension!

Last edited 1 month ago by CoreyBrewersD
David Echard
1 month ago

Suns won their 6th straight. Who’s rooting for a Suns-Blazers Play In,

Miserable Fact: When is the last time the Sacramento Kings won 6 games in a row?

2002-03 Season.

Thomas Amey Jr.
1 month ago
Reply to  SelecaoKOJ

How TF did the Suns become a higher ceiling team than the Kings in just a year? Oh wait…

Rik Smits
1 month ago

The twisted thing is that I would be gutted if my favorite prospect (Deni Avdija) falls to the Kings and will likely have his career nipped in the bud.

Adam Dieter
1 month ago
Reply to  RikSmits

Yup. This is why I think Giles bolts. His handlers aren’t going to let him languish in Sac. He’s as good as gone if he knows what’s best for his career. Vlade did him a solid by not extending his QO.

I also think we may get a trade request from Buddy. Then couple that with Bogi signing an offer sheet somewhere else and the Kings getting jack squat in a sign and trade instead of matching.

I fully expect the Kings to start next year at the bottom of league salaries, coached by Walton, GM’d by Vlade, and finishing dead last in the West. We will then have a maxed and newly disgruntled Fox wanting out.

Rinse and repeat.

Last edited 1 month ago by Adamsite
Eric W
1 month ago
Reply to  Adamsite

And passing on Cade Cunningham because they don’t want to disgruntle Fox further by taking the ball out of his hands.

Thomas Amey Jr.
1 month ago
Reply to  Adamsite

I honestly think they should be having discussions on what can they get for Fox. He’s not going to want to be here very much longer and I believe everything you are saying is very possible. Maybe we can get someone to bite on Marvin to get $.50 on the dollar for him? We need to have a personnel firesale. Now.

Eric W
1 month ago
Reply to  SneakerKing

Not that I’m advocating for trading him, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Knicks would pony up quite a bit for him. They’re desperate for a PG and the idea of pairing Fox, Barrett, and their 2020 1st (Toppin? Wiseman?) could look pretty enticing. They also have 7 1st round picks over the next 4 drafts. So if they stepped up with something like Robinson (especially if in a place to take Wiseman in the draft), Ntilikina (to match salaries with some degree of usefulness), 2021 & 2022 1sts (with at least one of those being the NYK own unprotected), then I think you’d have to take it.

Greg Lederman
1 month ago
Reply to  Adamsite

Buddy trade request??
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Eric W
1 month ago
Reply to  Gregoryl

Want to get crazy?

Buddy, Bagley, Joseph
for
Rozier, Batum, 2021 1st unprotected.

Maxwell Huss
1 month ago

I’m thinking a good place to start would be

Buddy, Bagley, 12th pick
Bamba, Isaac, Fournier

Isaac would be the get, but he probably won’t play at all next year. Better for our tank. Fournier will likely opt in, but be off the books by next off-season.

Adam Dieter
1 month ago
Reply to  AirmaxPG

I’d do that trade in a heartbeat, but I don’t think the Magic would.

Eric W
1 month ago
Reply to  AirmaxPG

As much as I love Isaac (he was my pick at 5 in that draft), he has had real trouble staying on the floor, he’ll already be in the last year of his team-controlled years before he plays again, and I’d rather target 2021 & 2022 draft picks. That said, if Isaac could be had on the real, real cheap, I’d certainly kick those tires.

Maxwell Huss
1 month ago

Same. However I don’t think we’re getting any lottery-potential picks from those years unless Fox is involved. Which I’d be open to in the scenario you proposed with the Knicks. If both trades were done:

PG: Joseph, Ntilikina, Yogi
SG: Bogi, Jeffries, Guy
SF: Fournier, Isaac, Baze?
PF: Barnes, Bjelly, Giles?
C: Robinson, Bamba, Holmes

Maybe too many centers, but you can flip Holmes to a contender while his value is high (even though I love the guy), and you have a top-5 capable tank for the next couple years, while you have your own picks, plus Knicks 1st in 2022 and Dallas 1st in 2021.

Eric W
1 month ago
Reply to  AirmaxPG

I really love the idea of trying to acquire other team’s high picks so we don’t have to worry about tanking.

But if we were REALLY tanking/rebuilding, I would probably target some terrible deals and load up on picks, even if they’re later picks. Something nuts (using other deals above):

Fox for Robinson + Ntilikina + 2021 DAL 1st + 2022 NYK 1st

Hield + Bagley + Joseph for Rozier + Batum + 2021 CHA 1st

Bogdan (S&T) + Holmes + Bjelica for Horford + Thybulle + 2020 OKC 1st

Barnes for Porter (you could try to get a pick thrown in, but simply having Porter’s 27MM expiring to play with and unloading Barnes contract would be enough for me).

Then you’re starting with:

Rozier/Ntilikina
Thybulle/Batum
Porter Jr.
Horford
Robinson

Which, honestly, if healthy (BIG IF) is actually a pretty decent 7. At least it’s full of smart, energetic defenders and team players. With two young guys with DPOY potential.

Then I’d try to trade down/out with our pick. For ease Let’s say to the Celtics for 16 & 30.

For this year, I’m targeting Poku (16), Tillman (22), Bolmaro (30). Likely trying to stash Poku and Bolmaro for a season or two.

And just for fun, let’s say Riller (35), Reed (43), Queen (53).

So we’re looking at (let’s say all picks arrive and end up on the roster):

Guards – Rozier/Ntilikina/Riller
Wings – Thybulle/Batum/Porter Jr/Bolmaro/Queen
Bigs – Horford, Robinson, Tillman, Poku

Then you have 42 MM in expirings (Porter & Batum) to play with at the trade deadline at a time that a lot of teams are going to be wanting to clear cap space for the huge 2021 FA class. Then you can decide if you want to use that space for one more round of taking contracts for picks, or use that space plus picks to acquire quality players.

And you’re sitting on 2021 SAC 1st, 2021 CHA 1st, 2021, DAL 1st & 2022 SAC 1st, 2022 NYK 1st. And I think you could reasonably expect at least 3 of those to be lottery picks with a decent chance of being HIGH lottery picks.

I mean, there’s no way any FO would actually do it. But it would be a hell of a ride.

SIDENOTE: The 2021 draft projects to be chock full of quality wing initiators.

Last edited 1 month ago by BestHyperboleEver
Maxwell Huss
1 month ago

Man that’s one helluva roster turnover 😉

But yeah, that probably puts us in a better position to contend (if we draft well). I do think it’s highly unlikely Charlotte does that deal however. Not enough in return for a high potential top 4 in what looks to be a very good draft in 2021.

Eric W
1 month ago
Reply to  AirmaxPG

I mean, none of those deals are likely. And the whole thing is based on a full rebuild that won’t happen. BUT….

The CHA deal all depends on what they think of Bagley. I see Hield and Rozier as roughly equal value-to-contracts but clearly Hield is a much better fit next to Graham. So the question is do they see Bagley as a 21-year-old top-5ish-talent-in-a-very-strong-draft-elite-athlete that has put up strong per 36 scoring and rebounding numbers despite fluky injuries? Or do they see him as an out-date energy big with an injury history? If it’s the prior, them that plus the $25MM of Batum’s salary could well be worth that pick to them. Or maybe it’s slightly protected in 2021 and less so in 2022.

Kas Keyes
1 month ago

Buddy and Bagley

for

LaVine and Markkanen

plus cash considerations?????

Eric W
1 month ago
Reply to  9sac8

I mean, sure. I’m not big fan of Lavine, but he has a broader skillset than Hield and a smaller contract. And Markannen is a year further into his contract, but at least his projection suggests at least one modern skill even if he hasn’t really lived up to it yet. That said, I don’t think the Bulls do that. For the same reasons I suggested. It doesn’t really solve any of their problems.

Maxwell Huss
1 month ago
Reply to  9sac8

Yeah we’ve batted around trade ideas with the Bulls before. I agree the Bulls likely don’t accept that offer. But, as we’ve talked about before, I think the player we SHOULD want from the Bulls is Porter.

Eric W
1 month ago
Reply to  AirmaxPG

As I note above, I LOVE the idea of having Porter’s expiring to work with at next season’s trade deadline.

Maxwell Huss
1 month ago

That, and I’m curious what a Fox/Bogi/Porter/Barnes/Holmes lineup might do. Lacks playmaking, but maybe some improved perimeter defense and some versatility could at least be interesting.

If we’re out of the playoff picture come deadline (which is probable), then yeah it’s an excellent contract to bring back some pieces.

Rob Hessing
1 month ago
Reply to  Adamsite

I’m guessing a trade of Hield that winds up being a disaster (Horford, anyone?), followed by an overpay to keep Bogi. We will then be treated to watching Hield go deep into the playoffs in Philly while being properly utilized.

John Navickas
1 month ago
Reply to  RobHessing

Likely scenario. I like Vlade to deal Buddy and Bogi for Biyambo, Batum, 2 2nd’s and most important a meet and greet with MJ for Vivek.

David Echard
1 month ago
Reply to  CoreyBrewersD

Not liking that trade. Is that an awful joke?.
Unfortunately, it sounds realistic. Trade everyone for future picks and/or expiring’s. It’s the only hope.

Rob Hessing
1 month ago
Reply to  CoreyBrewersD

Yeah, that’s the kind of deal that we used to laugh at, but now have a real fear of it happening.

Vincent Serrato
1 month ago
Reply to  RobHessing

If this trade came with Thybulle would you be against it?

Eric W
1 month ago
Reply to  Chent

That’s the question. What else could we get along with Horford. I should say that I think Horford, while significantly overpaid, is still a good player. In terms of pure single season contribution to winning I would take Horford over Hield.

Rob Hessing
1 month ago
Reply to  Chent

Given that Walton will never properly utilize Hield & given that the organization ain’t firing Walton, I guess. Might move them from 15th to 14th in the West next season. Progress!

Austin Jones
1 month ago

Staying a Kings fan…probably…but need to boycott until they get rid of Vlade, I would say Vivek too but we’re probably stuck with his so not racist celebrity worshipping ass.

Devin Rifkin
1 month ago

this article is great (per usual) but either this article was too soon for me or I really just no longer give a shit about this team or its future. Maybe it’s the last five months of life being changed upside down but there is so much else out there to enjoy than this crap. I didn’t end up watching more than 10 mins of bubble ‘action’ before admitting to myself that I really just don’t care anymore. I still want to support this site but fuck the Sacramento Kings. Fuck them all.

Rik Smits
1 month ago

It’s important to vote, people.
 
A initiative by (someone on) the Kings reddit page, I believe.
 

 

Last edited 1 month ago by RikSmits
David Echard
1 month ago

Hoping this is the next coach. Starting next week.

BK is Brian Keefe, who has returned to the Oklahoma City Thunder as an assistant coach and has a reputation as one of the best player-development coaches in the NBA. In the five years since Keefe left the Thunder bench, he’s developed into more — a coach who can not only nurture talent, but also lead it.Aug 8, 2019

In Starz
1 month ago

How much of the problem is Fox’s unevolution as a leader?
 
If he was was an actual floor leader he’d inspire energy and the best game out of everyone, yet everyone plays below their potential
 
Walton is proving to be a bottom 5 coach, but there is a lack of leadership the size of the Grand Canyon on the floor
 
part of vlade’s Fallacy, besides his notes ineptitude, was thinking Fox was ready to be built around

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