The All-Star break is nearly over and the Sacramento Kings are about to face their most important 25 game stretch in nearly two decades. Arguably no team in the entire league has been as surprising as the Kings over the first part of the season, but all of that could be for naught if they don’t take care of business over these final games.
The Kings sit in the 3rd spot in the Western Conference, and 3 games back of the Memphis Grizzlies for 2nd. However, they’re also just 3 games ahead of the 7th place New Orleans Pelicans and a spot in the play-in. The Western Conference is incredibly tight, with 13 of the 15 teams all having viable shots at making the playoffs, and many teams making big moves at the deadline to try to improve their chances.
To make matters even more difficult, Sacramento’s remaining schedule is particularly tough. Here it is in its entirety:
vs. Portland
@ L.A. Clippers (B2B)
@ Oklahoma City
@ Oklahoma City
vs. L.A. Clippers
vs. Minnesota (B2B)
vs. New Orleans
vs. New York
@ Phoenix
vs. Milwaukee
@ Chicago
@ Brooklyn (B2B)
@ Washington
@ Utah
vs. Boston (B2B)
vs. Phoenix
vs. Utah (B2B)
vs. Minnesota
@ Portland
@ Portland
vs. San Antonio
@ New Orleans
@ Dallas (B2B)
vs. Golden State
@ Denver
The only game in that entire schedule against a team that isn’t realistically playing for a playoff spot is the April 2nd game against the San Antonio Spurs. Each and every game is going to be crucially important if the Kings hope to maintain their standing and hold off the rest of the pack.
Coming into this season, most of us would have been happy to see the Kings competing for a play-in spot. However, at this point, the Kings have blown those expectations out of the water and being in the play-in would be a bit of a letdown. I don’t expect the Kings to maintain their current standing as the 3rd seed going forward, but I do hope that they at least stay in the top 6 so they can make the playoffs outright without having to rely on winning play-in games.
Thankfully, the Kings do at least have the advantage of a little leeway, being 7 games over .500. Given how competitive the rest of the West should be, 45 wins would seem to be a good target for the Kings to safely be in the playoffs.
Record Needed for 45 wins
| Team | Record Needed |
|---|---|
| Sacramento Kings | 13-12 |
| LA Clippers | 14-9 |
| Phoenix Suns | 13-9 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 14-8 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 15-8 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 14-7 |
| Golden State Warriors | 16-8 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 17-8 |
| Utah Jazz | 16-6 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 17-7 |
| LA Lakers | 18-6 |
As you can tell, 45 wins would make it very difficult for the Kings to drop past 6th in the standings. The Clippers, Suns and Mavericks would all have to either pass up or own the tiebreakers against the Kings (Sacramento is currently 0-2 against the Suns but 1-1 against the Clippers and Mavericks) and the Pelicans would have to have one of the best stretches of their entire season while still being without Zion Williamson for who knows how long. Teams below that have even less wiggle room.
Of course, should the Kings play at a worse rate than about .500 basketball, it gets dicier, and there’s more chance they could slip down into the play-in tournament. Fortunately, the good news for the Kings is that all of these teams still have to play each other a ton. This is going to be a war of attrition, and the Kings are in control of their own destiny. They just have to keep doing what they’ve been doing all year, and this seemingly never-ending drought will finally be over.
24-1 with a trap game loss to the Spurs.
IMO the Kings have a good shot at and up to the 6th. seed. I also think that the only way this would not happen is if they don’t play some sort of reasonable DEFENSE. No defense no playoffs.
When we finally clinch that playoff spot:
There should be a party thread, if (when) that happens!
And I hope it gets over 1000 comments.
We might crash the servers again!
Let’s get it on! #BeaminToThePlayoffs
I need to prepare my cardiovascular system.
If we make the playoffs, I’m getting drunk!
.
.
If we don’t make the playoffs, I’m getting drunk!
Ah, beat me to it.
I need to prepare my liver.
Lol not used to attaching pictures, my previous comment failed. But still, Let’s bring it on! #LightTheBeam #BeamItToThePlayoffs
Every single game means something from here on out. It’s going to be a ride. Magic number (Kings wins OR seed’s loss) for the 6th seed is 21 and for the play in is 19.
I love a magic number. Super fun that we get to care about one!
I hope that I am wrong, but I kind of expect the Kings to fall down the standings at least little bit. I think the Suns and Clippers will most likely pass the Kings if they can stay relatively healthy (pretty big caveat, especially for the Clippers). I also expect improvement from the Wolves by getting rid of D-Lo and bringing in Conley. This is not to say that the Kings can’t continue defying expectations, I just think it’s going to be an uphill battle post-trade deadline and with a lot of guys getting healthy for the stretch run. The games against teams like the Jazz, Thunder, Nets, Wizards etc. are going to be absolutely critical to win. I think the most important stretch for the Kings is the 4 game road trip in Chicago. If they can go 3-1 or 4-0 there, I think they’ve got a great shot to avoid the play-in and potentially have homecourt advantage in a playoff series.
Hanging onto third is unlikely, I’d say, but not impossible. It’ll take a hell of an effort to open the playoffs at home, but does anyone doubt that it’ll be worth it?
Oh, I hope they can pull it off because if they can, I think it’s one of the biggest turnarounds in league history. The fact we’re even in this place is surreal to me given how long it’s been.
Is it one of the biggest turmarounds? I am not sure.
You see a team make a huge jump once in a while. Suns did it in ’20-’21, going from 34-39 to 51-21. The Hawks went from 20-37 to 41-31 in the same season. And so forth.
The astounding thing is that the Kings were never to do that in the previous decade-plus.
We’re going from 16 straight lotteries, to 16 straight NBA Finals.
I’d say that’s a huge turnaround.
The Kings have been one of the healthiest teams so far this season, I believe.
Can it hold? And how good are they if/when their opponents get healthy again?
Hopefully the time off allowed guys to rest their legs for the frantic run to the playoffs.
Stay healthy, improve on defense, and silence the doubters
John Schumann breaks down the schedule for everyone here at NBA.com. But this blurb has a few details that are wrong.
A) that road trip runs from Chicago, Brooklyn THEN Washington and to Utah. (Boston is on a SEGABABA with the Kings on a rest disadvantage and the Celtics on the end of a 6 game trip.)
B) They face the Clippers on a SEGABABA (@GSW the night before) in Sac on Mar 4th. They also face Phoenix at home Mar 24th.
C) They face Denver only once in Denver and that’s game 82. That doesn’t matter much.
This I agree with. I do think that 45 wins gets the Kings there.
Phoenix beats Sac on a Tuesday and loses to the LA Clippers the following Thursday. That’s a perfect example of the attrition we’re going to see. For some reason, Dallas and Memphis play each other 3 times in 4 games in mid March.
I’m predicting that the Kings finish 16-9. That’s as much a butt pulled guess as anything, but predictions are hard. The one thing I know is that teams are not going to rest their stars against the Kings. And if the Kings make it into the top 4, it will be because they played their way there.
Be interesting to see how it all plays out.
538 has the Kings final record being 43-39, meaning their algorithms have them going 11-14 the remainder of the season. I could definitely see this happening after looking at the schedule, but I expect them to outperform this. Let’s hope Nate Silver is wrong…in best possible way.
The next seven weeks, in gif form:
This is no longer a meme.
You’re right, Moraless.
So…if the kings slip to the play-in or even out of the playoffs all together, would it be considered a colossal failure at this point? Say the wheels fall off and they peak at 40 wins, but just miss the play-in, is the season still a success with a +10 in the win column over last season?
Pre-season I would have seen 37 wins as a success, but a 5-20 finish would have to be seen as disappointing, bordering on disaster.
40 wins locks a play-in. I think that 44 locks a top 6. While greed has me hoping for a top 6, if they barely miss it’s still a good season….but a missed opportunity.
My answer is no. As I thought this was a 45 win team coming into the season, anything short of that is a disappointment in my eyes.
FWIW.
agree. I would really like to see them exceed my expectations and stay at 3 but I would really like it if they could hold down the 4 or 5 spot. Probably would play the Clippers who IMO have a good shot at winning that first series. My grandson, who is a junior and plays really good basketball had a great insight. He said the team who is hot down the stretch will make the playoffs and probably win at least one series. He as well as me is a Kings fan and hopes one of those teams will be the Kings.
PS In order to do this they need to stay healthy and play some sort of good defense throughout at lest 3 quarters.
Context is important, and why I never set a w-l record goal at the beginning of a season.
This season the west has been uncharacteristically weak. Utah, Spurs gutting their rosters, OKC standing pat, Rockets ultra-tank. Some team ravaged by injuries (Clips, Suns, Warriors, LAL), some by FO decisions (Wolves, Blazers, Mavs, LAL). We have been relatively very healthy, and taken advantage (so far). Can it last?
This team probably needs to get the play-off drought monkey off its back to settle down and focus on building a contender. Anything below a play-off series in this weakened season could be considered as failure, fair or not. (I think it is fair).
That could happen but I don’t think so. I will tell you after the next three games. IMO they will come out with a better defense, Huerter will get back to form, Mitchell will play his great defense with some offense Sabonis will keep his hands to himself and Monk will start being the 6th. man he can be. We will see.
I just look at the standings and see see just a 3 game gap to the play-in. The Kings could easily slip to to 7th or 8th and lose to hot Warriors or T-Wolves team. It’s worst worst case scenario, but it’s not a remote possibility.
Put it this way, I feel that horrible way to end the season has just as much of a chance as the Kings have at staying at 3rd.
I am fighting between wanting to go to sleep and wake up on April 9th versus the excitement anxiety, anguish and delight of gluing my emotions to every minute of every game and TKH comment.
Heh, I think the last time I could say this was in the 2018-19 season with the last year with Dave Joerger before the Kings fizzled out at the end.
Kings have to go 12-13 over the final 25 to match my pre-season prediction of 44-38.
Based on the remaining schedule, that feels just about right to me. 😉
I see it this way…
No defense and we one hundred percent lose a play in game and are done. Bad defense and we might win one or two play off games and eventually get embarrassed on the national stage.
Hoping for a 14-11 finish. But they have to just focus on one at a time. Can’t play them all in one night.
I’m calling 12-13 record and the Kings barely hang onto the 6th seed or have to host play in game/s as the 7th. If they are in the play in, it’s a coin toss as to whether they get in.
All I can think of is those 2 or 3 games earlier this year when we just didn’t put forth a solid effort. Unfortunately every year that seems to happen and we look back on those games in retrospect and wish we had those games back. You can’t unring the bell, so I just hope for no injuries, good defense (I hope, I hope, I hope) and solid effort from everybody.
On the remaining schedule, I can see the Kings winning 15 out of 25.. That would put them at 47-35.
Before the season starts, I predicted they win around 44-46 games so they’re right on track.
Go Kings!
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