The regular season is done and dusted, but here we are, talking about more Kings basketball.
Feels good, doesn’t it?
After an 0-4 start that had the fanbase expecting more of the same, Sacramento stands in third place in the Western Conference, as Pacific Division champs, and with 48 wins under their belts.
Not bad for a team most experts had pegged for 36 wins and a tenth place finish.
For their effort, they’ll host a first round playoff series. For their all their success, their reward is a date with the defending champs.
Never in their nearly four decades of shared history as Northern California NBA teams have both the Kings and Warriors been in the playoffs, and now they will be matched up against each other in what is sure to be one of the most entertaining early-round series in recent memory.
Sacramento, home of the league’s most efficient offense, plays a brand of basketball that nearly any fan of the game can get behind, sharing the scoring load, dominating from the paint and beyond the arc, and playing at a breakneck pace that has a “blink and you’ll miss it” feel. The Warriors have the best shooter in the history of the game, one of three backcourt players to average 20+ ppg this season (the first time that has ever happened), and a healthy Klay Thompson hit 300 three-pointers this year — one of just three players to ever accomplish that feat (Steph Curry and James Harden are the others).
For entertainment purposes only — take the over.
It’s hard not to callback to 2007 when thinking about what a series between there two teams might look and feel like, to think of Golden State as an eight seed upsetting the No. 1 seeded Mavericks. It wasn’t Steph and Klay that year but Baron Davis and Stephen Jackson, who behind “We Believe” rally towels and a raucous home crowd became the first eight seed to knock off a one in a seven game series.
16 years later, the Warriors are technically the underdog once again, but it feels like the Kings are the team with something to prove and the chip on their shoulder. To be the champ, you have to beat the champ: to exercise 16 years worth of demons, I guess that’s as good a way to start as any.
As Omer wrote Monday, there are so many similarities between the Warriors and the Kings, as his callback to the 2013 Warriors team led by Curry rings even more familiar than the upstart eight seed referenced above.
These are all common refrains from those that cover the Kings and those that follow them — there wasn’t a matchup that was going to be easy, but this particular one will be especially emotional. And maybe that’s what it needs to be.
Being an underdog as a higher seed with home court advantage is an interesting situation; Mike Brown has to love it and the fanbase as well. And while many seem to be content with simply getting to the playoffs, I am curious what you all think about the expectations once that series starts.
Personally, I am not satisfied with simply making it; this team has been too good and put themselves in too strong a position to just get there and call the season success. But it also seems unfair to expect a series win against the defending champs. Do the Kings need to win one game, maybe two, to call the season as a whole a victory? Do they need to stretch the first round matchup to seven games for the fanbase to stay bought in? Or do they need to advance past their Bay Area neighbors and advance to the next round to fully lock in their status as a burgeoning contender in the West?
Drop your thoughts in the comments, if you’re so inclined.
The one thing we know, is pregame Saturday night is going to be as epic as it comes. And with what it costs to get in that building for a playoff game, I have a feeling the crowd is going to be a great advantage for the Kings — and setting a few decibel records in round one.
Crown Him:
Likely to be named Executive of the Year, Monte McNair gets credit as the architect of the playoff Kings.
Shrewd moves, ones that might not move the needle on the national scale but built a foundation for a team that likes each other, plays well together, and has the pieces to win at a high level, not only made this season possible — but make it so this team is built to last.
Sacramento has four of their five starters under contract at least through next season and has the flexibility to either resign Harrison Barnes or bring in another proven veteran to replace him.
Since coming to Sacramento from Houston in 2020, McNair has quietly and carefully built a foundation for a winner, and often times by being unafraid to make an unpopular move.
Whether it was sending a popular draft pick packing or drafting a player most pundits considered “safe” — only to watch him become one of the most elite rookie shooters in history.
SacTown’s Finest:
The Kings open their first playoff run in 16 seasons Saturday night, so if you aren’t at the game, my only recommendation is to find a place to watch it.
Let’s light that beam, folks.
A win over the champs would certainly put us on the map and shut some pundits up. As long as they stretch the champs and put a scare in them I will consider it a great successful season. If Kings win, and I think they can, then look out western conference.
“Western Conference Finals. No, I ain’t kidding you.”
Followed by:
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And then…
Honestly, my first thought was “Just don’t embarrass me,” but I quickly realized that was a habitual thought from watching the Kangz. This team is different, and I don’t have to worry about being embarrassed any more.
i think they can and will win at least two games this series. If we get to a game where we can eliminate the warriors, expect the refs to treat us like they did in game 6 against the lakers. If we win the series, then this will have been maybe my favorite sports season ever, for any of my teams.
I really don´t want to, but I DO worry about the refs a little bit. It would seem like the defending champs are the leagues darling, and especially Sabonis getting into foul trouble against Green would be a major problem.
That being said, no excuses! Bring on the champs.
You should worry about the refs. Listening to the national coverage of this series, everyone is expecting the Warriors to win this and the Kings will get no help from the league. They are going to have to just flat out beat the Warriors. The networks want to see a Warriors/Lakers 2nd round matchup because of the potential ratings (Mike Greenberg on Get Up openly advocated for it this morning).
I wouldn’t be disappointed about the season if the Kings don’t win a playoff series. All of it has been so far beyond reasonable expectations, my only disappointment would be having to wait six months for next season to start.
The series is winnable. Playing “help defense” will get the Kings killed, though. If I see the player covering Curry, or Thompson, or Poole edging away from their man because Looney or Green are in the lane, it’s going to be a short series. Sacramento has been repeatedly killed in these situations, and by far less talented players than Golden State has.
Guard your man. Trust your teammates to do the same. All you’re doing is making your opponent work harder for a two so that they can get a wide-open three.
I hate help defense.
Well said.
I’m not sure, of course, but I think what you hate is bad help defense.
Good help defense and crisp rotations are things of beauty. You just don’t see that often with the Kings.
The Kings certainly have their own defensive issues, but in pretty much any game you watch, you’ll see teams get a dozen or more clean looks from three because good shooters are left open.
I just don’t think it’s a tenable solution when every team has several guys shooting at better than league average.
I don’t disagree, but a lay-up line doesn’t seem like a tenable solution either. And with our POA defense and spotty rim protection, that’ll possibly be the poison that we’ll pick then.
From my perspective, I’d rather see dozens of (even poorly) contested layup attempts than a similar amount of open shots from three. GS has three guys who have the ability to make 10+ three-pointers in a game, even against a decent defensive effort.
Curry and Thompson are probably north of sixty percent on open threes (disclaimer: butt-pulled statistic), and my preferable poison is to make them work in the paint as opposed to giving them a leisurely two or three seconds to line up a bomb because one of our guards felt it was more important to double Looney fifteen feet from the hoop.
I don’t have any idea what the directive is for defenders, but watching it strongly suggests that they’re told to sag off to help against action around the paint. I don’t think Sacramento can win unless they play an outside-in defense, including some 3-2 zone from time to time. And that zone needs to have the perimeter guys up close to Curry once he’s inside of forty feet. Seems like it would just be easier to play man and stick with your guy.
I’d love to be able to win at least one playoff series (especially against the defending champions). But I’d also understand if our inexperience gets the best of us and we go out int he first round.
It’s hard because while this season has completely surpassed my most optimistic expectations, and because of that I’m not going to lie and say I wouldn’t be disappointed if our first playoff appearance in 17 years ends in a first round exit (especially being a third seed). If anything, I just hope that this first round is competitive and memorable, regardless of who ends up winning. No matter what, I actually feel optimistic about the direction of this team going forward, a feeling I haven’t had in a long time.
Go Kings!
My expectations? Make a series out of it.
I’d be disappointed if we embarass ourselves. Losing in a tight series will hurt, but I can swallow that.
Being embarrased in a 4-1 drubbing will annoy the hell out of me.
Fair or not fair, it would put a stain on an otherwise wonderful season.
MAN all this talk about how we don’t want to be embarrassed and being happy with the season is Loser Talk.
Like Shaq says, STEP ON THEIR NECK WHEN THEY’RE DOWN!
Yeah, but don’t you have to get them down first?
when the goal is to win there is no need to think about how to lose.
Meh. I think that it is possible for Kings followers to be appreciative of this season in real time, and to also understand that not winning it all could still make for a successful season. Honestly, I’ve never understood the mindset of 1 winner and 29 losers.
Is my desire for this team to win it all? You bet. Am I engaging in “loser talk” when I discuss how less than a championship can still be considered a successful season? I don’t know, but I do know that I will be very happy with the 2022-23 Sacramento Kings, whether or not they win the championship.
All I want is to enjoy myself watching these games. I think I will!!
The assumption is always that my team won’t win it all. That’s just reality.
Fan since the beginning, and this is the first year I have season tickets!
What a great time this year has been. Looking forward to experiencing a playoff game at G1C, and hoping tp prove all the doubters wrong, but know its gonna be a battle.
Hope to see some of you out there 🙂
Section 120 Row G seats 5,6,7,8!
You are HUGE!
Haha! I’ll be in seat 8, I’m not THAT big! 😆
Enjoy the game and light the Beam!!!
Next year I’m 120 Row H. Used to be row A.
Okay I am so done with this hedging and tepid support for the team.
We are the 3 seed for a reason, the other teams are below us for a reason. Kings are going all the way this year. Going to win the Finals in Game 7 with a clutch shot from Mr. Clutch himself. Let yourself believe, its ok to have faith. Could any of the top 3 teams be the winner at the end of the day they sure could, but we are severely underselling our performance thus far. I for one am sticking with the prediction Fox wins it all for us in game seven of the Finals. NBA champs here we come! First time in League history.
We are playing with house money at this point what do you have to lose? Set those expectations at the highest level possible and enjoy the ride to a championship.
Sir Gawain, a knight of King Arthur’s Round Table, need not cower from the (Draymond) Green Knight. Accept the challenge and take your blows.
I watched The Green Knight in theaters last summer…was literally the first movie I went back to on the big screen for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic.
A B S O L U T E L Y
DON’T FEAR THE WARRIORS
Because deep down, this guy (same actor) is just a harmless, sentimental fool. Like Draymond.
The initial reaction from pundits and the betting lines–especially for the series, in which the Kings are currently the biggest underdog as a third seed since 1990–seem overly influenced by team reputation and lack of knowledge about a small-market team.
The only site that claimed to use its own “statistical model” deviated from the near-universal prediction of the Warrriors in 6 by calling the series a tossup.
The Kings are a favorite, albeit a slight one. I’d be surprised to see the Kings lose this series.
The betting lines look like an opportunity.
I agree actually with the first paragraph, but I don’t know what to expect with this team in these moments. If I were saying this were only a basketball series, I’d pick the Kings ro win the series 4-1. I’ve hedged my bets and picked the Kings 4-2 as winners.
I spent time this morning before work looking at the game logs of the first 3 games. In particular, the 3rd game the Kings won at G1C stands out. It’s not that the first two matchups don’t matter, exactly, but it’s hard to take away much from 3 match-ups that happened before Thanksgiving. Rarely does regular season translate to postseason anyway. But I spent time looking at the PBP of all 3 games and I don’t remember the Kings being down 3 with 4 mins to go in the game (113-110). I remember the 78-72 Mark in the 3rd because the Kings simply ran it doesn the Dubs throats the rest of that qtr. But…as champions do, they keep coming. And come they did.
Btw, I buried the lede. The Kings finished that game on a 12-2 run. (In response to a Dubs 15-3 run.) Fox hits a layup. Bulled through Anthony Lamb who were lazy getting back and gets an easy layup. What’s more important is Wiggins didn’t match up with Fox in that moment and they were burned.
What sticks out are several things. One, the Dubs had just taken the lead back. Fox wasn’t even sprinting that hard (he was jogging) down the court… then boom he’s in the lane dropping a deuce.
An important element of all this is that both Brown and Kerr had called 5 of their timeouts, and as we saw later in the 351 point affair more infamously, the Kings have shown they wear teams out with their tempo. But we saw it earlier than that, like in this contest in game 13, the 19-0 run in Cleveland that ended the game to name two.
The Dubs have an interesting conundrum. They can play fast and the Kings can play fast with them. The Dubs can slow the game down and play a halfcourt game the Kings are better at, and I don’t expect them to do that either. Which means they have to be perfect in their execution….. and the Dubs are 2nd worst in the NBA in terms of TOV%. They also don’t attack the rim frequently either. That’s a tight rope to walk for 48 minutes… to beat a team you are supposed to be better lower seed or no.
The Kings, quite simply, when you move beyond the historical legacies and the accomplishments of the Warriors, are simply a bad matchup. The Kings can not only play fast, they have fresher legs. They can wear the Dubs out, and experience means little if you can’t outrun someone.
So, in essence, I think the Kings should win. The issue isn’t the Golden State Warriors or their legacy. The issue is are the Kings ready for the Dubs to throw the entirety of the kitchen sink at them when they realize they can’t beat them straight up.
In short, I’m not sure what to expect. But I think if the Kings come out and attack the right way, they’ll be fine. It’s just a matter of do they let the moment eat them up. And do they play their game. I think they will, but as always proof is in the puddin’.
😛
It was that or TL;DR. But I assume most don’t bother to read my blathering on so I advise myself saying short. Nothing personal. Just simply business, my man.
So I amuse myself. 😂😂😂
This is copied and pasted from the prior thread “The Other Shoe Never Dropped”, but it was posted at the end of the comments cycle and probably not many people read it. But it expresses why I am ignoring my HEAD, which tells me there is little to no chance of significant playoff success THIS FIRST YEAR FOR US due to the NBA favoritism for superstars, Best of 7 formats and a “pay your dues along the way” mentality, NBA-allowed ref bias, and NBA-approved playoff games being a different beast than regular season games (more so than any other professional sport, I think); and allowing my HEART to show up on my sleeve instead:
Lightning in a bottle?
To my mind, much of this season’s storyline comes down to exquisite timing.
Mike Brown has spoken frequently about his journey as a coach and a person, what he has learned along the way, from his prior varied experiences and mentors. He is, in the moment, a coach we all appreciate and love and respect, but would he have had the same success with the team had we gotten the 10-years ago version of himself?
The pre-draft discussions often went heavily along the lines of 19-year-old potential vs. 22-year-old “low ceiling”. But the discussion of “individual superstar talent” vs. “consummate team player” will always be there (examples: would you rather have Iverson or Nash? J-Will or Bibby?). Results may vary, for different situations and different teams, even the relative impact of those aforementioned players in different team situations. I would argue, however, that for THIS team (even though it was nothing close to a “veteran team” needing just a couple small holes filled), that we have benefitted tremendously from the “maturity” of “older” rookies Davion and Keegan, who have displayed abilities and contributions and grasped team concepts that have impacted the team game more than some exciting “superstar” (“and he just turned 20”) rookies with gaudier stats.
For Monte McNair, maybe he was lucky he wasn’t hired prior to the Luka draft. He might have nailed that pick in the moment, but as several recent TKH contributors have noted, maybe in the long run we are better off as a team. And would trading for a 3-years-younger Domas have been as successful? Building around a 5-years-younger De’Aaron?
So much of players’ career success is timing-dependent, with the growth that comes from experience. How many of basketball’s best players (let’s say top 100 in the league) have had their best success with their first team? Malik, Huerter, Lyles, Barnes, and others are all experiencing “bests” (or at least probably “most funs”) at this time in their career arcs.
It makes for an exciting manifestation of “the whole is much greater than the sum of its parts”.
So while I can and mostly do appreciate the mindset of “I’ll just enjoy the ride, because this is just the beginning of a multi-year building process”, I also find myself succumbing to the fleeting (but not infrequent) thoughts that maybe, just maybe, the Kings have captured lightning in a bottle THIS YEAR.
They have, in less than a full season together, learned to execute an exquisite offense (just as the circa 2002 team did), and are learning to play a team defense (as did the circa 2002 team, without stellar individual defenders other than arguably Christie and Jackson). They are maximizing individual abilities and strengths, but also growing and diversifying the applications of their skills to different game situations. They have already learned to win on the road, win the tough close ones, win the ugly ones, and beat the good teams.
So, I’m right there thinking, Look out, all you media-favored big-market teams, with your superstars, with your draft-deadline free-agent mercenaries, with your advantage of referee bias, and with your planned load managements, because you might not fear the beam, but you should definitely fear the lightning.
Lighting the beam happens when a person / team pushes the button. And the other team can work to prevent that pushing of the button. But how to stop lightning in a bottle? Lightning happens on its own timing, of its own accord, with momentary instantaneous aligning of the necessary but not well-defined atmospheric elements. And when it happens, there are obliterated trees and scorched earth left behind.
Ask Villanova vs. Georgetown.
Ask US vs Soviet Union hockey.
Ask hobbled Kirk Gibson vs. Dennis Eckersley.
Ask Lorenzo Charles and Christian Laettner and Jalen Suggs and all those other 3-point makers in March Madness.
Remove the cap off the bottle holding the lightning, and what do you get? (hint: a BEAM shooting up??)
Lightning does happen, and you might be the media-favored King of the Hill but you don’t want to be standing around admiring your hair standing up when it does.
Go Kings, I have loved every minute of this season.
Lightning the Beam.
Wonderful!
I don’t agree with your heart on this one, but I appreciate your words. Rec’d
I got tix to game 5 if it happens but I hope it doesn’t. Would rather watch a Kings sweep obvs.
Bluster, prognostication, and bias – it’s an interesting mix, and for the first time in a long long time (16 seasons) we get to dive into that quagmire for something that actually means more than lottery odds.
That’s a win.
Now we all know, and TGJR (The Great Jerry Reynolds) has oft reminded us, games are played on hardwood, not paper. On paper, the Kings are the 3rd seed and have the top offense and a more positive point differential. They are the paper favorites.
But they ain’t.
Kerr’s crew of Curry, Klay and Dray are a modern hoop dynasty. The regular season is a slog of time to not get too injured, to test the replacement players and train the young guys so they can keep their roll rolling. It means nothing to them. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Bupkis. They’ve seen it all through 27 playoff series since 2013. Twenty-Seven! They’ve been down 1-3 to win a series (sorry Thunder) and have done a 4-0 sweep 5 times which includes the 3 for the amazing 16-1 run for the Larry O’Brien 2017.
The Golden State Warriors have 4 Rings.
Can the Sacramento Kings best the Champs? Absolutely. But it ain’t likely. There is a reason the odds are against it. I expect the Kings to struggle on defense (d’uh) and given the jitters we’ve seen on the home court for playoff clinch and Pacific clinch and 50 game reach – I gotta hope that Heurter, Keegan and Monk can shoot it – but I don’t expect it. And it’s going to have to be for more than one game. And at Chase Center, where the Warriors were 33-8, not 23-18, it’s even worse. The Warriors have struggled mightily on the road (11-30) but Sacramento isn’t exactly away, it’s down the road, and playoffs are not the regular season. I can hope that the Dubs are cocky enough to get behind a game or two, and that Sac can take advantage of that, but I don’t count on it.
Warriors in 7. I would say 6, but I am hoping for a Game 7. Anyone can win a Game 7. But Scott Foster and Tony Brothers will be the Dick Bevetta and Bob Delaney redux and Steph will fall after every 3 pointer (as will Poole) to 4 point their way to victory.
And there’s always next year.
There’s good news here –
I can’t predict anything correctly – or haven’t so far. I’ve always expected the Kings to have a better season than they end up doing, until, of course, this year. I went out on a limb and predicted 38 wins… again, happily wrong, but still wrong.
On the Nostradumbass predictions- I am in the middle of the pack. I am a nothing special sort of dumbass – no Nostra title is forthcoming for me.
As I haven’t been able to speculate worth a spit – there’s a very good chance that the opposing view of having Sacramento advance past the Golden State Warriors is a likely better bet. I’d be much happier being once again, wrong wrong wrong.
I’ll also add: My feeling is that you don’t have to like the Warriors, but you should respect them.
Atlanta-Miami game has been good. I stopped counting dunks by the Hawks midway through the second quarter.
F it. I’m going with Kings in 7. Home team wins all games.
The Heat are cooked, so that’s our first upset of the playoffs.
Wolves up 11 at the half. The Lakers look like a bad team.
Test.
Agreed
Badge Legend