Will the Kings ever win a second half?

Sacramento’s first road trip of the season got off to a rocky start, but an exciting finish in Milwaukee at least ended the week on a positive note. There’s still one more game to come on this trip before returning home, but until then let’s take a look at the week that was.

The Kings have a second half problem

The Kings have now played six games to start the season, which means there have been 12 quarters of second half basketball so far.  The Kings have won exactly one of them, that being the 38-31 third quarter against the Milwaukee Bucks, a game in which the Kings would go on to win.  Sacramento has been in nearly all close games as well, but their execution down the stretch has left a lot to be desired.

Against Oklahoma City, the Kings were up 97-90 with 6:37 to go.  They didn’t score again until Zach Lavine went to the line with 1:18 left for a couple of free throws with the Thunder now up 101-97.  Against the Bulls, the Kings started the 3rd quarter with a four point lead, but allowed the Bulls to score 13 unanswered points out of the break and take control.  That one was a bit more understandable with the Kings having tired legs on the second night of a back to back.

Even down the stretch against Milwaukee, the Kings came dangerously close to letting that game slip away.  It was one of the rare games where the Kings got bailed out by the officials, with several calls down the stretch going in the Kings favor (such as Myles Turner getting called for a foul on a Westbrook drive on what looked like a clean strip).  In fact, the Kings didn’t make a single field goal in the final four minutes of that game, with all of their points coming at the line with Milwaukee in the bonus.

Part of the problem is just how predictable the Kings are when the game gets down to the wire.  Ball movement usually disappears, and the ball is usually going to DeMar DeRozan for a tough midrange jumper.  There were times down the stretch against the Thunder when Domantas Sabonis would have a seal inside against a smaller defender but the Kings didn’t even try to get him the ball, instead opting for some type of tough isolation shot.  Yes, the Kings have guys like DeRozan and LaVine and Schröder who can make tough shots, but it’s easy for defenses to plan for it, and they’re still tough shots.  You don’t see the Kings getting a ton of layups or even attacking the rim down the stretch. Instead it’s usually a dribble isolation into a midrange shot that usually ends up in a miss and points the other way.

The Kings aren’t getting the most out of Domantas Sabonis

Rob mentioned this in the comments of last week’s post, but it still rings true.  Ever since the Kings got rid of De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis has been relegated to a tertiary role.  What made the original Beam Team so dynamic was how creative the Kings were in using Sabonis’s skill as a playmaker and screen setter.  The ball was in Domas’ hands a ton with the entire offense revolving around him and the Dribble Hand-Off.  Yes, it became predictable, but it was effective, and the Kings had the ability to break down defenses in other ways as well.  In Mike Brown’s first two seasons, the Kings led the league in DHO frequency (9.1% in 2022-23 and 10.2% in 2023-24).  This season that frequency has gone down to just 4.6% of the time.

What’s gone up to take it place? You probably guessed it, but it’s Isolation plays.  In 2022-23, the Kings had the 7th fewest Isolation Frequency in the league at 4.8%.  This season they’re 3rd highest at 10.4%, averaging just 0.89 points per possession.

Domas’ touches and time with the ball are also down, which also affects his ability to make plays for others.  Here’s a table showcasing Domas’ touches and assist rate since coming to Sacramento:

Domas is a unique player that needs very specific usage to truly make the most of his abilities and right now the team makeup and playstyle isn’t taking full advantage of Sabonis’ gifts.

The Russell Westbrook experience is a wild ride

I’ve never been a big fan of Russell Westbrook’s game while also completely acknowledging that he’s probably one of the best players of his generation.  Westbrook is always doing everything at absolutely 110%.  It’s kind of crazy to see him still flying around like a madman well into his late 30s. At times he looks completely out of control and at others he’s taking over the game with his hustle and effort.  He can look like the best player on the floor and the worst player on the floor all in the same game and even on the same possession.  The Kings probably don’t win against the Milwaukee Bucks without Westbrook, who had some heady defensive plays and timely assists, but they also might not lose against the Thunder if Westbrook wasn’t airmailing wide open threes down the stretch.  I absolutely understand why Westbrook has some rabid fans, because it’s hard to root against a player who plays with such hustle and effort at all times.  His style just isn’t for me and I think it’s a horrible fit with this team as currently constructed.

Keegan Murray can’t come back soon enough

Right now the Kings two most used lineups feature four guards and Domantas Sabonis.  The most used lineup features Westbrook, Schröder, LaVine, DeRozan and Domas and has a net rating of -18.4.  The second most used lineup is the same except with Keon Ellis in place of Westbrook and is even worse with a net rating of -33.  The Kings just have no size at all without Murray, and it’s painful to watch as other teams exploit it time and time again by getting to the rim or getting second chance opportunities.  Murray might not be the team’s best player, but he might just be the team’s most important player at this point given that we don’t have anyone else who can do what he does.  I’d be willing to bet that if he had been healthy the Kings probably would be at least 4-2 right now. Get well soon Keegan.

Where the hell did Ryan Rollins come from?

When Ryan Rollins scored 16 points to go with 8 assists against us in Milwaukee, I figured it was the classic case of the Kings letting a random guy go off.  But looking deeper, Rollins has been having a breakout start to the season, averaging 18.2 points, 5.5 assists and 2.3 steals while shooting 53.9% from the field and 40% from three.  It doesn’t seem like a fluke either as just watching him against the Kings he looked like the best player on the floor at times. He was aggressive in attacking the basket, finding the open man and picking his spots.  It just goes to show that some guys just need time and opportunity, but the Bucks look like they got a good one in Rollins.

Upcoming Kings Schedule:

• Monday, Nov. 3rd at Denver
• Wednesday, Nov. 5th vs. Golden State
• Friday, Nov. 7th vs. Oklahoma City
• Sunday, Nov. 9th vs. Minnesota