Monday Morning Starting 5: Season Tip-Off

For those of you not familiar, I got my start as a writer at our old digs at Sactown Royalty by writing a weekly series called “the Good, the Bad and the Ugly”.  I’d take a look at the week that was and other musings that struck my mind.  That series ultimately led me here, more than a decade later, now having helped found our own website to talk about the Kings.  And look, talking and writing about the Jenga tower of chaos and incompetence that is the Sacramento Kings for nearly 16 years wears on a person.  But it’s this community of sickos that, for better or worse, love talking about and discussing this team that keeps me coming back for more year after year.  

While I’m not going to fully bring back the series that got me started, I did want to start a new weekly series called the “Monday Morning Starting 5” where I have 5 topics I can muse on. It could be about the week that was, upcoming games, or just whatever comes to mind.  We’re going to be doing things a little bit differently around here this season in terms of trying to offer more quality over quantity.

Back when we first started writing together over at StR, our life situations were a lot different.  Free time has become a lot harder to find for all of us, and last season in particular it felt like a ton of our energy was going into the rote work of previews and recaps that frankly take a lot of effort and time and don’t really offer that much to you the reader who likely just watched the game.  So for gamedays, we’ll be doing a single thread for each game like we’ve been doing for the Preseason where you can discuss the game before, during and after.  For particularly memorable games, we still might do an occasional recap, but it will be more because we feel like we have to talk about it instead of simply having to do it.

This is a hobby for us after all and hopefully this frees us up to use what time we have to focus more on the actual analysis and opinion that we’re passionate about.

So with that being said, welcome to the first ever Monday Morning Starting 5!  Kings basketball returns in a couple of days, so here’s five predictions I have for the upcoming season.

The Kings will be one of the worst defensive teams in the league

This is hardly the boldest prediction as the Kings have had exactly one above average defensive team (the 23-24 squad which just barely finished above average at 14th) since 2006.  But I have a feeling this year is going to be particularly bad, especially in the earliest parts of the season with Keegan Murray out.  Murray is this team’s best defender, and also the only real wing on the roster.  Sacramento’s projected starting lineup of Dennis Schröder, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Dario Saric? (still to be determined who starts here in place of Keegan but this is my guess for now) and Domantas Sabonis features no defender that anyone might call good, let alone elite.

The Kings have some good defenders on the roster like Keon Ellis, and perhaps Drew Eubanks, but those guys don’t seem like they’ll get enough playing time to make a ton of difference.

I don’t think this team will end up as the worst defensive team in the NBA, but I’d be willing to bet they’ll end up pretty close to it, even when Keegan comes back.

Zach LaVine is going to make an All-Star push

My feelings on the Kings acquiring Zach LaVine last summer aside, I think LaVine is going to have a very good year and put up some big numbers on what I think will be a high scoring offense.  LaVine has become one of the NBA’s most efficient players over the last few years, and on high volume as well.  In 74 games last season between Chicago and Sacramento, LaVine averaged 23.3 points on 51.1% from the field and 44.6% from three.  Those percentages are actually identical for both his time in Chicago and Sacramento.  His early stint in Sacramento had some growing pains as he was trying to feel out his role in the offense but I think now with a full training camp and offseason with a team, he’s going to take the opportunity to step up as the team’s offensive focus, as he should be.

There’s few better shooters or scorers in the NBA than LaVine, and if his efficiency is like what it was last season, I think we could see him averaging 25+ easily.  Should the Kings be doing a bit better than people expect, I think LaVine will end up with some real All-Star consideration, but it might take him averaging 30 to actually make the team given how we’ve seen guys like Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox be snubbed in years past.

Nique Clifford will be the real deal

I’ve been very impressed with Nique Clifford every time I’ve gotten a chance to see him play, whether it was in Summer League or this preseason.  Clifford has an advanced feel for the game (which is fitting given that he’s already 23), whether it’s where to be on offense or on finding open teammates.  I think he’ll have a real spot in this rotation early on, especially with Keegan out, and I think he’ll do well with his opportunities.

Clifford was actually second to LaVine in scoring for the Kings in preseason, averaging 14.3 points on 48.8% from the field, also while averaging a team leading 4.5 assists and 1.3 steals a game.

The real X-Factor for Nique will be if he can be consistent from outside. He shot just 31.3% from three on 4 attempts a game in preseason, and the word on him in college (where he shot just around 37.7% in his last two seasons) was that he’s a bit streaky with his shot. But even if he doesn’t find that consistency this season, I still think he does enough in every other area that he’ll end up as a positive plus-minus guy for this team as a rookie.

DeMar DeRozan will be traded by the deadline

It was a bit surprising to me that DeRozan wasn’t dealt by the Kings this offseason, but it’s also unsurprising that teams aren’t willing to take on a big salary in this second-apron era for only a potential short term gain.  DeRozan is an awkward fit on this Kings roster, an incredibly skilled scorer who nonetheless tends to dominate the ball and shrink the floor.

On a roster with players who can defend and shoot consistently and who only really need him to secure clutch buckets, DeRozan might fit in well, but in a featured role in Sacramento without a very complementary supporting cast he’s just a square peg in a round hole.  I do think that by the time the deadline comes around though, some fringe contender team in need of a scoring punch is going to sell themselves on DeRozan being a short term solution to some of their problems.  That salary won’t look as big then, especially with a majority of it unguaranteed next season, and the Kings will move on.  I would legitimately be shocked if DeRozan doesn’t get dealt by the deadline.

The Kings will not make the Play-In

The Kings have been in the Play-In tournament for the past two seasons, but have failed to advance to the playoffs in either year.  While I do think the Kings will still be in the Play-In hunt this year, I think they’re going to break their streak and miss out.  Oklahoma City, Houston, both Los Angeles teams, Denver, Golden State and Minnesota are all teams I believe will make the playoffs.  That’s seven spots right there.

That leaves three spots up for grabs.

San Antonio only won 34 games last season, but that was with Wemby missing half the season.  I think with a healthy Wemby the Spurs are going to be really good.  The Grizzlies won 48 games last year, but they did lose an important piece in Desmond Bane.  The key for them as always is health but I think they’ll be in the Play-In picture.

The Pelicans were an absolute dumpster fire last season but also might have had the most cursed injury run I’ve ever seen.  They won just 21 games despite having the roster of what feels like it should have been a Playoff team. Also, Zion is skinny now.  They’ll be in the hunt.

Dallas will be without Kyrie Irving for the first part of the year, but Anthony Davis is still really good, and the Mavericks also added Cooper Flagg to an already huge frontline.  This is going to be a tough team to play against, and it will get even more difficult once Kyrie is back.

Portland is another team that I could see sneaking into the Play-In picture.  Chauncey Billups had them playing above .500 basketball by the end of the season as they finished the year 24-23 after starting 12-23.  They also just added Jrue Holiday which will be a nice stabilizing presence in their backcourt.  That leaves just the Kings, Suns and Jazz.

The Jazz are still going to be bad this season in all likelihood, but they might be fun bad now that they’ve gotten Ace Bailey. I still expect Danny Ainge to look for opportunities to unload Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler while seeking to land another top pick in the draft as is his M.O.

Phoenix is in a bit of a transition period.  They’ve still got Devin Booker, but that’s about it.  The rest of the roster is a hodge podge of vets and rookies that I don’t think is going to end up doing much this year.  I expect the Kings to be better than both of those teams, but I don’t see the Kings beating out all the others to secure a playoff or even Play-In spot this season.

I feel like the Kings will end up in the 11-12 range in the West, especially if they become sellers at the deadline.

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As always, Go Kings and Light the Beam.  Here’s to yet another season of basketball in Sacramento.