He played 36 minutes in Malik Monk’s absence against the Milwaukee Bucks Saturday and finished with 20 points (60% from the field), 9 rebounds and 6 assists.
Too Many Cooks in the Kitchen
Doug Christie is trying to make this roster work right now, but the problem is there are too many ball-dominant players in the starting lineup. The numbers back it up:
DeMar DeRozan takes up 24.6% of the possessions (92nd percentile in usage), according to Cleaning The Glass. Zach LaVine has had a usage rate in the 90th percentile or higher since 2017-18, but and has tried to scale back since arriving in Sacramento – he is in the 57th percentile usage at 23.1%. That is the second lowest of his career. However, he is primarily looking to score instead of creating for his teammates – he is in the 7th percentile for assist-to-usage ratio (how often he gets an assist compared to how much he has the ball), the lowest of his career.
Even with LaVine trying to adapt to playing next to DeRozan in “Chicago-West,” these two are still accounting for close to half of the team’s possessions. Adding in a third high-usage player in Malik Monk (94th percentile in usage) is like adding yet another candy store to Old Sacramento.
Is it really needed or effective?
The Ellis Effect
This is where things get interesting: With Keon Ellis in the lineup with LaVine, DeRozan, Keegan Murray and Domantas Sabonis, the Kings cook – this lineup has a +18.1 differential, the highest of any lineup this season. When Monk plays with those same players instead on Ellis, the team has a -8.5 differential.
That is a pretty big gap.
That lineup with Ellis also is in the 95th percentile in points scored per 100 possessions. This lineup also allows 117 points per 100 possessions. The lineup with Monk is in the 49th percentile in points scored and allows 125 points per 100 possessions.
Even more interesting: The best lineup in terms of points allowed features Ellis, Monk, DeRozan, Murray and Sabonis. That same lineup is a +17.9 in differential so starting both Ellis and Monk and benching LaVine might be a good option (that will probably never happen).
Everyone knows what Ellis brings on the defensive end, but it isn’t just that he helps the team when he is on the floor, he is the ideal complementary player for the high-volume scorers on the roster. He doesn’t touch the ball all that much on offense (he is in the 0th percentile in usage at just 12.2%) and he is in the 99th percentile in effective field goal percentage, according to Cleaning The Glass. He is always making the right play and hitting the open shot while never demanding the ball.
On a team with several guys who need to ball in their hands to score, he doesn’t take away from them while helping.
On defense Ellis, who is averaging 23 minutes per game this season, is:
- 98th percentile in block percentage
- 93rd percentile in steal percentage
The Monk Dilemma
With De’Aaron Fox in San Antonio, and Markelle Fultz not a consistently reliable option in Christie’s rotation, Monk is the only player close enough to a starting NBA point guard the Kings have. He is a good playmaker (97th percentile in assist percentage and 85th percentile in assist to usage ratio) and can create shots for himself and others in ways that no one else on the roster can.
The problem is he is more of a shooting guard, so his natural instincts as a player are to create shots for himself. He is in the 94th percentile in usage at 25.3% this season. Pair that with DeRozan and LaVine and you have 73% of the possessions being dominated by just those three. There just aren’t enough possessions for everyone, spacing gets complicated, and the ball doesn’t move.
LaVine is trying to fit in and not make things worse. His usage rate has dropped since joining the Kings while his points per shot attempt is the highest of his career (98th percentile).
Playing alongside Monk has to complicate the readjustment to sharing possessions with DeRozan again for LaVine.
Both Guys Help the Team Win
With the strange fit between LaVine and DeRozan, it really isn’t an argument of who helps more between Ellis and Monk. It is simply how they help because both do help.
Check out the on/off numbers:
- Ellis: 82nd percentile differential (+5.6 points per 100 possessions)
- Monk: 79th percentile differential (+5.3 points per 100 possessions)
They both make positive impacts.
Try Starting Ellis
So, both players are good, it is just on Christie, who is in the head coaching spot for the first time, to figure out how to take over for the coach of the year, manage losing the team’s star player and make this roster fit together.
No easy task.
But the data shows that Ellis fits better next to LaVine and DeRozan because he doesn’t dominate the ball, provides spacing and plays defense. His three-point shooting gives DeRozan room for his midrange game and LaVine’s drives. He also averages 43% from three.
Monk is a solid playmaker and can drive and kick out to shooters, or run a pick and roll. But he has to do it by dominating the ball, which takes the ball out of the hands of the two guys who need it the most to score. And he is averaging just 32% from three. As he did much of Mike Brown’s tenure as head coach, Monk could go back to the bench and dominate second units and not have to compete with two All-Stars for touches in the starting lineup. Monk could still play heavy minutes and close games if the matchup lends itself to it.
These rotation decisions matter when considering positioning for the play-in tournament, and the Kings are 3-7 over the last 10 games. To be fair to Monk, he did not play in three of those losses, but the team was 2-4 with him.
Christie has to manage egos and contract size in the process. This is stuff not all coaches are great at and while Doug has done an admirable job, it is a tough spot to be in, especially as a first-time head coach.
Ellis forgot to water Vivek’s plants when he was out of town.
Or something, because how else do you explain two different head coaches shunning Keon and forcing line ups that don’t further winning?
It’s hard to believe it’s anything other than egos at this point. There’s no statistical case for continuing to bring Ellis off the bench. The Kings are intentionally playing their worst group together and they’re worse because of it.
Unless it’s a stealth tank job? But that would require a plan and actual strategy so I doubt that’s it.
Stealth tank? Sgt. Bilko’s got ya.
If it’s logical and makes basketball sense the Kings won’t do it. It’s a joke.
as I said, previously, it’s very easy to see what this team needs, and how they need to play.
Find a PG and 3/4 D and 3. Run a goddamn O- not this free flow shit- since you have Sabonis. Hello?!! Surround with shooters. And D.
And get rid of Monk (unfortunately)and DDR because you have too many non defending scorers/ball
stoppers.
Oh- and Fucking play Carter etc and prioritize keeping pick.
It is the same shot over and over. Thanks Vivewrwck
Dumb duh dumb dumb dumb
100%. I think some people might underestimate the human side of the business. A lot of players want to start and if they are highly paid / have some claim, their agents can also really pressure teams and threaten to withhold future clients.
I don’t really see a pure basketball reason why Ellis wouldn’t be starting. At this point, it’s pretty clear that DDR, Monk, and LaVine almost have to be prioritizing starting and the Kings don’t want to risk any other locker room issues.
And yet, if you are a coach your career is measured by your performance.
I don’t see DC getting a HC job elsewhere if this doesn’t work out.
Sort of like Vlade not even sniffing another FO job elsewhere in the league, or giving a guy like Sim Bhullar a contract, or hiring security robots, or whatever the next stupid idea the dismissive little chap comes up with next.
I don’t know FKC, I feel like we’ve been told numerous times in these threads that Ellis just isn’t that good and wouldn’t start on any other team, because you know…opinion.
What should I believe? Opinions or statistical facts?
In my opinion; statistical facts 100% of the time.
98% of all statistics are made up.
Even if it were true that he wouldn’t start on any other team (probably not true), it’s pretty obvious that starting him on THIS team makes us better.
100%
the organization is not trying to win.
I would like to see us move both Monk and DeRozan this offseason, along with whatever draft capital is needed, and maybe consider adding a traditional or defense minded PG, length and athleticism at the wing, and maybe even acquire a shot blocker? I know I know, we wouldn’t want to hew too closely to what real franchises do with roster construction, god forbid.
I’m with you on this. It’s not just that the Kings shouldn’t be playing all three of Monk, LaVine, and DDR tother, I’m not sure they should be playing any 2 of them together. LaVine isn’t going anywhere with his contract, which leaves DDR and Monk as redundancies.
Choose the 5 that give the team the best chance to win, regardless of their contracts.
Of course, but that may end up being Keon, LaVine, LaRavia, Keegan, Sabonis.
That starting group won’t happen with Monk and DDR on the roster.
So many dilemmas, so little time.
Kings keep trying to force the square peg into the round hole with Monk, Lavine, and DeRozan starting. Ellis clearly should have been starting since the 1st game this season. Not sure what the issue, but not starting Ellis has been a bad choice all season.
At least one of the three need to be moved so Ellis can start.
I would bet one of those three will not be on the team next season (most unlikely being LaVine given his awful contract that no team would want).
Ellis is perhaps the single greatest find of this front office, signed shortly after going undrafted in 2022 (I believe that there was an agreement already in place if he went undrafted). For all of the utility bill paying that this organization has done by selling its 2nd round picks, this is one that they got right, at a low cost and no expenditure of assets. Why Ellis has not been more celebrated and utilized is just beyond me. I just don’t get it.
I’m not sure that the Rockets are going to want to pick up FVV’s $45m option next year, but a starting backcourt of FVV/Ellis would be fine with me. Tyus Jones wouldn’t be bad next to him, either. My no-wait-a-minute-yeah choice is Russell Westbrook, who has done a very nice job of re-inventing himself in Denver. A Westbrook/Ellis backcourt would hellacious on defense.
Picking up Keon’s option this June is the most no-brainer thing ever for the Kings…which is why I’m worried about it.
He should be the starter. Bench Lavine. I don’t care how much he makes.
If they pick up the option, Keon becomes a UFA after next season. If they decline the option this summer, Keon is a RFA. I’d expect them to decline the offer, and re-sign Keon on a new deal. Keon gets a raise, Kings get more years. Keeping him super cheap for one more season would not be worth risking losing him the next summer.
Monte when thinking about this.
Agreed this would be best-case scenario for everyone. Good call.
Is it possible they’ve restricted his playing time to keep his numbers ($$$) lower, heading into contract talks?
No-Money Ball!
And what are the chances that someone comes in and offers Keon fair market value, which will be considerably more than he makes right now, and the Kings balk, because you know…Kangz.
Isaiah Thomas him! Is Alex Oriakhi still around?
That’s exactly my fear.
I’d bench DDR before LaVine, but that’s just me.
I don’t understand this take at all. DDR is noticeably better than lavine to me. It’s like we’re starting lavine because of reputation and how much money he makes.
Send Zach and his 45m to the bench where he belongs.
Because he is a better shooter and moves the ball more than DDR.
ddr is an iso black hole on offense and plays no defense.
We can acknowledge that Doug took on a very difficult job at a very difficult time.
But he took it, and he has to own it. If he can’t see what everyone with a pair of eyes can see he is not a good coach.
If he has no actual power to decide on his own rotations, he was stupid to accept the job.
If he’s just a company shill doing Vivek’s bidding, I hope he flames out Vlade-style.
Brown didn’t do it either, he was actually much worse at getting Ellis minutes, which I thought was a major reason why he got fired.
Doug has played Keon more than Brown did, but he still isn’t starting him, which is a problem.
I don’t think we fans have gotten a solid answer as to why Ellis isn’t starting. Maybe that direct question hasn’t been asked on record? It’s just so damn obvious that he needs to be starting, but here we are at this point in the season struggling for to keep the 9th seed.
Sadly, even if it’s asked on record you’re not going to get the real answer.
Things got a bit muddled afterwards with the Fox saga, but Brown deserved to be fired. And not playing Keon played a significant role in it.
(The bigger question is why Brown got a premature extension. But almost everyone on here was happy with it at the time.)
The sample size of data has become impossible to ignore. And yet Doug is ignoring it.
Yeah I argued that Brown deserved the extension, but if the Kings were that uncertain about him they should have stuck to their guns. Too often this team seems to buckle to external perceptions. Fans were in an uproar (myself included!), but they could have ignored all that and just gone into this year with Mike Brown on the final year of his deal and probably would’ve gotten less blowback for firing him if they hadn’t just extended him. But it’s not my money, glad Brown got paid for dealing with this org.
Very true, huge organizational problem that they’re constantly concerned about getting cancelled, their perception, and ticket sales. No true focus on building a contender, just quick fixes, and caving prematurely.
I don’t think Brown’s firing had anything to do with Keon.
Brown was fired because Domas (and others) were done with Brown and the Kings were done with Fox.
Keon doesn’t start because of Vivek’s Neo-Tech-Bro NBA 3.0 Shaka-Rama analytics
aka
No-Money Ball
Do any of you think Sabonis might not be around next year either he wants out or we trade him. Might solve a lot of their problems and if you can trade Monk and possible DDR you would have a lot of options.
If I were Domas, I’d ask to be traded.
Me too. And one more time for those in the cheap seats
Vivek……fuck all the way off.
I think there’s a significant chance that he’ll ask for a trade.
Not sure what problems it would solve, though.
Not only will he ask out but I bet they want to trade him to avoid max contract.
I don’t know how getting rid of Domas solves any real problems with this team. He’s the team’s best and most reliable player. I think moving him would create more problems than it would solve.
In a related mental exercise, though, I wonder how many of the current players will still be with the team after Zach’s contract expires year after next. The only person I’d feel somewhat comfortable saying will be with the team is Devin Carter. Not exactly who I’d be comfortable building a team around.
The idea that Vivek is playing money ball or trying to restrict Keon’s value seems completely crazy to me, I don’t buy it for a second.
Of course not. It’s 100% about the “Stars” on this team needing to start.
I agree.
That said, I think Vivek loves guys like DDR, LaVine and Monk. Flashy, no defense scorers.
Yes, it’s the Kangz version of Money Ball. Instead of trying to build a winner on the cheap using analytics and smart spending. Waste money paying fired coaches and go all in on overpaid no defense scorers.
Wonder if we can get Mont Ellis in here?
I am not a songwriter – but many on here are, and Deuce and Mo like this stuff as well. A song tribute to Keon, using Elton John’s Levon would seem to fit.
He was signed a pauper by a pawn on free agent day
His stellar play will not the coaches sway
And he’s coming off the bench yet again today
And he shall be Keon
And he shall be a reserve, man
And he shall be Keon
He’s not part of Vivek’s plan
And he shall be Keon
We deserve an explanatian
He shall be Keon
Performed by the Kings of Keon
Tripping on Ellis D.
I forgot who coined that one (apologies if it was you Rob) but it’s still the best comment of the season.
Excellent write-up, it seems Monk is the best choice to move to the bench, though I think DeRozan would work well also. LaVine seems like the type who needs to start and his contract kinda makes it almost a must. Here’s the thing though, as you stated, Ellis is the best guy to have in at the end of the game when it matters most. In that situation I believe it must be Ellis that is in and whoever of the 3 of DDR, Monk, and LaVine is having the best game to that point. LaVine should absolutely be benched at the end of games if he has been the least effective of he, DDR, and Monk. Christie needs to step up and make that call when necessary, this organization doesn’t seem to know how to deal with star players and it’s a major problem.
Christie is either incompetent, scared of upsetting a slightly below average starter (Monk / Lavine) or he’s being told by the front office that the 3 matadors must start. Any of these 3 answers / excuses are pathetic.
I bet Pop, Spoelstra, Atkinson, etc would have about 5 more wins out of this group. But of course they would never ever work for this owner.
[…] Christie has presided over a team that traded away All-Star point guard De’Aaron Fox and Kevin Huerter, added All-Star shooting guard Zach LaVine, and brought in reserves Jonas Valančiūnas and Jake LaRavia. He’s had to try to figure out how to mesh the games of LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Malik Monk and Domantas Sabonis — all offense-first, ball-dominant players whose styles don’t necessarily dovetail all that neatly — and find a way to build more balanced lineups that won’t always give away the store. (The answer, as ever: More Keon Ellis minutes.) […]
[…] Christie has presided over a team that traded All-Star point guard De’Aaron Fox and Kevin Huerter, added All-Star shooting guard Zach LaVine, and brought in reserves Jonas Valančiūnas and Jake LaRavia. He’s had to try to figure out how to mesh the games of LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Malik Monk and Domantas Sabonis — all offense-first, ball-dominant players whose styles don’t necessarily dovetail all that neatly — and find a way to build more balanced lineups that won’t always give away the store. (The answer, as ever: more Keon Ellis minutes.) […]
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