De’Aaron Fox entered this season finally free from the burden of the Sacramento Kings playoff drought, but facing the new burden of how to build on the season before. Following a first-round playoff exit that may have gone the other way if Fox hadn’t broken his finger, following the best season of Fox’s career, and after winning the league’s first Clutch Player Of The Year award and a third-team All NBA nod, improvement was a tall order. And yet Fox improved in several key areas. Fox dramatically improved his three point shooting percentages, even when shooting threes at a much higher volume. Fox displayed an increased focus on defense, and led the league in steals. And yet, despite improved defense, improved three point shooting, and an increase in points per game, the season still feels like a little bit of a disappointment.
The problem for me when I think about Fox’s season is that is breaks out into three parts, and the three parts just happened in the wrong order. Fox played a total of 74 games, and they break down into three key segments:
Fox’s first 24 games: 30.2 points, 6.2 assists, 4.6 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 40.4 3P%, 8.9 3PA
Fox’s next 25 games: 23.5 points, 5.0 assists, 3.7 rebounds, 2.0 steals, 33.9 3P%, 6.7 3PA
Fox’s final 25 games: 26.2 points, 5.8 assists, 5.5 rebounds, 2.3 steals, 35.7 3P%, 8.0 3PA
The middle of the season saw Fox playing through a shoulder injury that was apparent to anyone watching. But that slump in the middle of the season really put a hamper on both Fox’s overall year and the Kings’ success. We were so spoiled by how Fox started his season that it makes what followed seem disappointing. Fox also seemed to fall in love with his three pointer this season, and there were times it felt like a detriment. Part of what made De’Aaron so special last season was the way he would knife through defenses and finish in the mid range or get to the rim, where he finished at an incredible rate. This season it seemed like Fox was reticent to attack the rim, perhaps due to the shoulder injury he suffered on such a play early in the season. But for whatever reason, Fox ISOs felt predictable in a way they weren’t before, and Fox’s clutch factor didn’t carry over on threes in the same way it did in the paint the year before.
It feels harsh to critique Fox so much, though. The shortcomings of this season fall on the entire roster, and as one of the two stars of this franchise Fox is naturally going to shoulder some of that blame. But Fox had an incredible season, and improved in two of the key areas we always hoped he someday would. He was a pest on defense, and while steals are not an end-all evaluation of defense, Fox’s steals often came in one-on-one defensive situations where De’Aaron would fluster and attack opponents. And for all the complaints about falling in love with his three pointer too much, I don’t want us to overlook the fact that Fox went from 5 threes per game last season at 32.4% to 7.8 per game this season at 36.9%. Reliably shooting well from 3 at such a high volume is game-changing for how opponents need to game plan around the Kings and Fox. The fact that Fox can put up such an incredible season and still have it feel disappointing is a testament to how talented he is, and that we can all see that next step that Fox can take.
De’Aaron Fox is still just 26 years old and entering his prime. Fox has shown us so many incredible facets to his game, but it feels like he still hasn’t fully hit his ceiling. I’m hoping we see it next season, where we get 75+ games at the level that Fox played his first 24 games this season.
Fox is a better player this year than last year, but it came at the expense of doing what he’s best at.
The start of the year, when he was apexing, he was just below the main MVP guys. This is territory we could only dream of when he was drafted. But between the injury and regression to the mean, his impact was lessened. I think that it’s telling that Sabonis got another nod for All-NBA, but not Fox.
Going into next year, I think the focus for Fox should be on threes again.. but not the actual shoot aspect. He’s finally gotten that nailed down. This time, it should be about the strategy: WHEN he should shoot, how to make plays off of his shooting, how to combine it with the threat of his blistering speed. That version of Fox will be his best version, having mastered his old weak spots.
His defensive work was also greatly improved, particularly once Keon really started slotting in. I’d like to see how the perimeter holds up with a full season of the two.
Yeah, his pairing with Keon gives us the best perimeter defense this Kings team has had in recent memory. Assuming Keon is our starting SG next year (not guaranteed at all), it will be interesting to see if that removes some of the defensive pressure from Fox and frees up his offense more. If Keon has a 3P% anywhere near 2023-24’s rate, that will also make a huge difference for Fox.
Excluding a trade for a different starting off guare, I’d assume the starting spot is Keon’s to lose at this point. If he starts out next season the way he finished this last one but Brown gives the spot to Huerter, I’d want some heads to roll.
Agree 100%. I assume the same. Keon’s sample size is still relatively miniscule and you never know who might come available to MM this offseason. But Keon’s defense is a lock and really elevates the team overall. Even if his 3P% dropped to 38%, there’s a lot of value in keeping him in the starting lineup. What a luxury if we could get that kind of production out of an undrafted player. I actually don’t think Huerter was the sieve on D that many Kings fans think he is. But he’s still below average. Fox could have a monster year next season if he gets to defend opponents’ second perimeter option all year while Keon gets the primary defensive assignments.
Possibly even the 3rd perimeter option, as Keegan often guards out on the perimeter as well.
Oh yeah, that’s in the back of my mind, too.
Imagine if we could find a rim protector at PF. That starting lineup could be really outstanding.
2 ea Kobe Bryant
2 ea Michael Jordan
1 ea Giannis
This is the team you two have constructed.
huh?
Imagine all of the players magically fixing every hole in their game AND doing things they have never done before.
This roster is perfect.
You find the oddest interpretations of comments. Nobody has mentioned that Keon and Keegan are all world players, nor was Fox mentioned as such. Simply stated that Keon is the best perimeter defender on the team, Fox won’t have to guard the opponents best perimeter player, and that Keegan would probably guard the opposing team’s 2nd best perimeter player.
Not what I said or what I interpreted.
I read comments that discuss the fantasy of players being something they simply are not then this team is absolutely amazing without any changes.
Not a big deal.
It’s clearly a big deal because it’s the only thing you talk about.
I can be excited about a team that I think has an absolute ceiling of maybe 4th or 5th in the West. CEILING, guy.
Who are you to tell us not to be excited about getting legit value out of an undrafted player like Keon? It frees the Kings up to spend money elsewhere. I don’t know why that means (to you) that I think Keon is the second coming of Kobe. Except that your one-track mind is obsessed with any positive comments about him at all.
Trading Keon for a good player after getting Keon on the deal he is on is great for this team. I wasn’t discussing anything about that though.
Flying over head…
This hypothetical fully depends who we get back in trade.
…and Fox becomes a great defender who only has to guard the weak opposing player. Then we get a power forward that is a rim protector that shoots 87% from the three point line while playing in the paint as a rim protector.
See, this is not critical thinking – it’s a simple troll comment. Barnes’s 3P% would be perfectly acceptable if he contributed in other areas.
How about if you describe what the ideal PF looks like who plays next to Sabonis, instead?
So if Barnes’s actual three point percentage combined with all the other areas of his game improving make him the player we need.
Reality combined with fantasy.
A power forward that rebounds, plays defense well enough against big men, and scores enough to pull a double team away from Sabonis a few times a quarter.
For you…a power forward that is 6′-2″ but plays like he is 9’10” that will shoot threes at over 90% while playing a supporting role to Sabonis. This guy comes over as part of six players we get for half of Keon in a trade then they give us Keon back just because.
Excellent example of a straw man argument.
And I mean, like, UNHEALTHY obsessed.
Do you ever have anything constructive to say?
Imagine a rim protector as third perimeter player that can also play the point guard along with a power forward that is the best defender in the world with a scoring average of forty five.
There are pieces to a team and these pieces all have realistic abilities and limitations.
Uh…are there some meds you should be taking?
No. I am all good.
Not into conversation or critical thinking?
This team wins the first round of the playoffs if only Chris Duarte would have turned into Michael Jordan.
Comparing Duarte to MJ is conversation / critical thinking? Sorry, it’s just a complete non sequitur. There’s no conversing with you.
If my dog was actually Shakespeare I would have him write this.
Keon seemed to inspire Fox’s defense. That pairing can be successful but it is tough to play with 2 guys who are not consistent offensive threats- Ellis and HB. Getting an offensive replacement for HB is important.
Agreed, which is why I think there is going to be a lot of Kyle Kuzma rumors from now and up until the #13 is picked. For all of Kuzma’s faults, he can get a bucket. To me he’s kind of a Malik Monk of PFs. Not incredibly efficient, takes some unwarranted shots, not a good defender, but can facilitate and fill the scorer’s ledger. My preference is still John Collins because he will cost less and will rebound, shoot from 3, and defend better than Kuzma.
Once Keon came in to the starting lineup, Fox seemed to pick up his defensive game more, good point there.
Have to echo you and the others here above in acknowledging that the pairing with Keon seemed to trigger Fox defensively. It was really fun to see.
I hope he’ll rely less on threes next season (or will shoot them at a blistering rate).
Awhile back someone mentioned his attempts or selection was messed up when monk was lost for the season. Like maybe he was tasked with trying to fill in for the absence by jacking up threes.
There are nitpicks in every player’s abilities, and I thought Fox had a good season. Sure, he took too many 3s some games, or didn’t get to the rim enough at times. But what he did accomplish (after an early season ankle injury, and the shoulder issue mid-season) was pretty damn good.
Just needs to keep expanding his game, and not lose sight of what he excels at, which is getting to the rim and the mid-range.
Defensively he improved a ton this past season. I don’t think he can go hard defensively on every possession because of how much he does offensively. But I do think that he can work his way to being more consistent defensively throughout each game (not just after a bad call or getting a T).
Fox is talented but he has to get back to his clutch mid range game or he’s just another pretty good player.
I love that he attempted to be some a better 3 point shooter but he should only be shooting those that are open/good threes. He should have known better. Brown should have told him as much.
Without clutch Fox his game does not produce enough winning. And I wasn’t all that thrilled about his not talking to media stance.
As I e stated previously, the Kings passed
on Luca and traded away Hali because of Fox. He has to become the guy.
I felt like this was the best year of Fox’s career. He took a small step backward offensively, which is not necessarily unexpected after the jump he took. But this was easily the best defensive year of his life. I will take this version of Fox any day.
And I’m someone who thinks the media(and some of the fanbase) has chronically over-estimated Fox’s defense in the past. He veered back and forth from mediocre to flat out bad in certain years and was really inconsistent. But he (mostly) put it all together this year. He’s not all-defense or anything yet but it was a vast improvement.
Yep, impact winning both offensively and defensively. Better player player than last year for sure.
Fox is a very good (not great) individual player. When his quickness erodes his game will erode rapidly.
This team needs leadership with a high basketball IQ. This is not what Fox is. That guy had to be traded unfortunately. Find the leader and keep Fox to play the role Fox can play or move on from Fox.
Fox is the ceiling for this team and the ceiling has been lowered this year.
At this point, the largest area of improvement for him would be to become a playmaker. He doesn’t really make the players around him better. Unfortunately, it seems as though playmaking ability is something you have or you don’t have. I don’t ever recall a player with no play making abilities developing those abilities.
ISO Fox is clutch Fox. He is an individual player who can at times pull off some miraculous shots when he drives into four defenders. Most of the time it doesn’t work.
He has a few teammates wide open because everyone knows to guard Fox because he won’t pass it when faced with four defenders in front of him.
End clutch ISO Fox and this team wins more games.
The same idea can be applied to Monk. I’d imagine a healthy lions share of shots taken in crunch time were by those two and that they weren’t very efficient at it, especially from 3.
Very true.
Monk coming off the bench to relieve Fox or playing along with Fox as a SG creates a situation where this can be expected from Monk.
We need one player that is a play maker leading this team. It can be a rotation of Fox and Monk. At this point it isn’t.
The C who was 6th in the league in assists isn’t enough of a playmaker for you? Is this because you believe that the only worthy offense is one that runs through the PG?
Much of the problem goes back to Brown’s inability to recognize when the DHO is being shut down, modifying his strategy, and then bending players to that vision. I don’t put that on Fox, Monk, or anyone else but him.
No problem with Sabonis being a playmaker. It has worked well for many teams. Those teams build around that center.
Is this team built around Sabonis?
Do you think Brown understands basic basketball?
Do you think Brown has to make decisions based on what the roster actually does?
I’d have said yes two years ago. This last year, with largely the same roster, I would say no. But there are a ton of factors at play. At 46 wins in a ridiculously talented West in a year when the Kings absolutely gave away several gimme wins, I don’t think they’re as far away from a top 6 seed as you seem to think they are.
The feel on defense changed significantly with Keon plugged in, which is why I’m optimistic that they will improve next year. Huerter had the yips all year long. Simply moving to the bench improves the team.
I’m hoping we can do the same with Barnes. Bench him / trade him, I don’t care. But we absolutely must improve at PF and bench depth to get a ticket to the dance. Watching all these playoff teams, those are the two serious areas of weakness I see.
Good point and feel Barnes at best needs to be a 7/8 man . Must get someone like if not Collins at 4/5 via trade and maybe a Derrick Jones via MLE . He will be a FA and makes about 4 million now . 🤷🏼♂️
Relevance is your strong point.
I see that you changed your post after I had begun responding to your initial question about whether the team is built around Sabonis.
To answer your questions about Mike Brown, it’s hard for me to be that down on him, given that he’s one of two coaches in the Sacramento era to get above .500. But there are some glaring weaknesses that seem to center around his slowness to adjust – something that many people here have commented on.
And sure, some of that is on MM for incomplete roster construction, particularly in our 5-8th rotation spots. There aren’t any HOF players coming here to bail this team out, so building around Sabonis and Fox’s strengths is, of course, paramount.
What post changed?
So why do you blame Brown for this team losing?
Brown is supposed to change the players obviously.
Why can’t a hall of fame player come here to help out?
It must be impossible for anything good to happen to this team.
Does a HOF player bail this team out?
A few more solid pieces and this team is definitely better.
It’s difficult to converse with someone who perpetually takes the most extreme interpretation of your views.
Where did I say that I blame Brown? They had a winning season in a brutal Western conference. Brown is a solid coach with some weaknesses.
I’ll restate my premise about HOF players. It’s extremely unlikely this team adds a future HOF’er in the offseason. Possible? Sure.
——————————–
“A few more solid pieces and this team is definitely better.”
Good lord, you go to such great lengths to create an argument with someone who agrees with this same basic premise.
There is no point conversing with ABB.
Appreciate you.
Yeah, he’s clearly not stupid, which makes me think maybe he’s only here to troll. It’s a lifestyle for some. A pathetic way to live, if you ask me, but clearly it gives them joy.
Lol, but he is amusing.
The fantasy…and then reality.
Amusing for most. Absolutely confounding for very few.
Yeah you are amusing because of you are confounding, even to yourself probably.
“Much of the problem goes back to Brown’s inability to recognize when the DHO is being shut down, modifying his strategy, and then bending players to that vision. I don’t put that on Fox, Monk, or anyone else but him.”
Brown clearly cannot “bend” the players into the roster he needs and doesn’t recognize basic basketball when he sees it. All his fault…not on Fox, Monk, or anyone else but Brown.
Who said that?
Joe Biden. Who misinterpreted it in the most extreme possible way?
You are consistent. I appreciate that about you.
Want to talk about basketball, politics, or the actual Sacramento Kings?
Squirrel!!!
Yep. Barnes played 2381 minutes this year. If you look at the guys who played 2300-2500 minutes in the NBA in 2023-24, you get Barnes and a whole bunch of players better than Barnes.
Maybe this means we need a different power forward?
We absolutely do.
Fox had a 25.2 AST%, 3rd on the team behind Domas (33.9%) and Monk (28.9%).
Fox was 2nd on the team in Assists with 5.6/game (418 total), behind Domas (8.2/game and 673 total).
So when you mention becoming a better playmaker, how do you quantify that? Especially when the offensive scheme is ran through Domas.
The starting point guard is third in assists and notorious for being an individual scorer.
Quantified.
Does it matter where the assists come from? Its a team game.
No it doesn’t. But if Fox is the starting point guard assists help greatly. He isn’t the playmaker on this team and never has been. He is an individual player. That doesn’t go far in the NBA as far as teams are concerned.
Love Fox but he is a terrific scorer but below average true playmaker . Draws a lot of attention but gets assists out of desperation not instinctly like a true playmaker . Even Monk better . You are correct it doesn’t matter where they come from but he needs to get better in this area . Seems the last flaw to near greatness .
That’s not it. The last straw is he needs to shoot FT more than 80%
I would quantify it by the eye test. He doesn’t do a good job of finding open players when the defense collapses on him.
Third on the team for assists as the starting point guard.
This. He’s a scoring guard and less a traditional PG. He’s a good scoring guard at that, but not from deep. Monte has surround him with wings who can shoot better than him, yet he is the one leading the team in 3pt attempts. That’s not a winning trend.
Imagine a leader on the floor creating options that the other team has to figure out how to defend.
Fox has a role as an individual scorer. Not a play maker point guard that can play average defense.
I agree that Fox really needs to be more selective about when to take his threes. Though I will also concede that part of what hurt the Kings this year was the fact that KM shot worse from 3 than Fox did. That needs to change – and I’m hopeful that in his third year, KM will boost his efficiency.
Agreed. Keegan needs return to his rookie shooting season, or at least approach it. I wonder if part of that was other teams keying in on his deep shooting. He was part of every team’s gameplan this season. One happy byproduct of that was his improved 2pt shooting. His scoring got more diverse, but the cost of his 3pt%.
This is a bummer about Fox’s game/why choosing him over Hali and Luca was the wrong choice.
Does he make players around better? He can’t/doesn’t run PnR etc.
It is a small window of how Fox can dominate and help team win.
…and his small window relies on his speed which is small window in a player’s career.
No, his speed may decline as he gets older but he may get stronger. Which will make him a better defender. What you get at the tail end of Fox’s career is about Jrue Holiday. Still a great player to have.
I hope you are correct. I will take Holiday today.
This feels like a bit of a partial writeup…
Greg, why is there no mention about FG% and efficiency?
Thats pretty key here, and how I dont understand how his season could be defined as great. Volume scorers on suboptimal efficiency have a questionable role on teams if they aren’t bringing stout defense (credit, Fox did improve this year defensively from bad to neutral – in term of certain advanced stats though good steals) or great playmakers
What is his FG% and efficiency?
Can you tie that what he is as a player and how that helps or hinders this team?
Great observations, Greg. It’s true that Fox’s numbers improved but I’d argue his game did not and it came at a cost to the team as a whole.
Last year clutch Fox was a beast in the mid-range game and attacked the paint more. This caused teams to react and collapse which opened shots for the shooters that surround Sabonis and Fox. This season with teams seemingly willing to let shot Fox shoot from three hurt the games of Huerter, Barnes, and Keegan. Other teams know that Fox is most lethal attacking the paint, so when he doesn’t it helps them. This is also evidenced by a lower number of assists for Fox this season. Off the dribble threes are not as team friendly as paint touches and passes to open teammates.
I have to say, I miss that next gear Fox used to display when he’d attack the rim for a thunderous throw down. Those seemed fewer and far between this past season. Has Fox slowed? is there any data on his foot speed over the past few seasons?
I think it’s mainly because he’s playing more defense throughout the game. He had a career high in steals. However, he also reminded us of his early season ankle injury during an interview after getting knocked out of the play-in. That might have had a lingering effect. seems logical, considering the types of moves he makes at high speed.
He did sprint back on defense a couple of times.
Two less opportunities to score.
Could be, his lethal first step just didn’t seem to happen as often, nor that extra gear on fast breaks. Maybe it’s a lingering injury or just father time.
NBA.com does track speed. Fox was actually faster this year, at least on an average basis. Not sure what to make of that though.
I know PACE isn’t necessarily indicative of speed, but last season was the second slowest of his career. Second slowest to only his rookie campaign. Not sure what to make of that either.
They don’t track how fast Fox’s left foot moves compared to his right foot?
Fox is faster than SGA, Luka and Brunson but not as good . May be more important .
Which ones win more?
This last year was Fox’s best. Next year I hope to see him drive-and-kick more.
Oh, and lots more threes, please.
I’m a few days late on this one, but I think Fox realized this year that the person overshadowing him in the league is SGA. They’re 6 months apart, Fox dishes the ball MUCh better and plays overall better individual defense, but SGA gets the respect, narratives, and the league wants to see him succeed. The fact that Fox is not all NBA and SGA is first team is bizzare. Look at their season and career splits. Fox got injured and slowed down midyear, but I think he’s ready to make another leap. One of the interesitng things about Fox is that he seems to do that every other year. Find another gear to go up. He’s an extremely good comptetitor, a great family man, and the most fun Kings player to watch since Jason Williams. I’m so thrilled he’s our PG and I think the best is yet to come.
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