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Looking ahead at the Kings remaining schedule and lottery standings

What to expect from the final 9 games of the season.
By | 83 Comments | Mar 22, 2022

Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

The Sacramento Kings have just 9 games remaining this season, and will be without Domantas Sabonis for at least 5 of them. De’Aaron Fox also remains out on a Day-to-Day basis. The remaining schedule is as follows:

@ Indiana Pacers
@ Orlando Magic
@ Miami Heat
@ Houston Rockets
@ Houston Rockets
Golden State Warriors
New Orleans Pelicans
@ Los Angeles Clippers
@ Phoenix Suns

Tankathon has the Kings with the 5th easiest schedule remaining, although schedule difficulty can be difficult to predict as teams begin shutting down key players. The Pacers, Magic, and Rockets, for example, are in the same boat as the Kings, with all eyes focused on the draft lottery. On the other hand, a team like the Suns may not have anything left to play for by the final game of the season and may be resting players for the playoffs. With all this uncertainty it’s hard to predict wins and losses, but even if the Kings win out against teams with a worse or similar record, that’s just another 4 wins. I’d guess somewhere between 2-4 wins for the remainder of the season is realistic, especially if the Kings shut down Sabonis and Fox.

That would put the Kings at a final total of around 27-29 wins, and likely lands them 5th or 6th in the draft lottery odds.

As the standing currently hold, Sacramento isn’t going to end up worse than the bottom four teams. The Rockets, Pistons, Magic, and Thunder will be the bottom four teams in the standings at season’s end, in some order. Sacramento and Indiana are jockeying between 5th and 6th, with Indiana having a much harder remaining schedule. The Trail Blazers sit 7th, but despite their efforts to tank the season they also have the easiest remaining schedule. The San Antonio Spurs currently sit 8th, but have shown no indications of tanking.

The lottery odds don’t shift wildly between spots 5 and 7, but the differences are still notable. The difference between 5 and 6 us a 5.1% better chance at a top 4 pick, and 1.5% better chance at the first pick overall. The differences are the same shifting from 6 to 7.

For the remainder of the season, I want to see the Kings be smart. There’s nothing to be gained from winning games right now, and the Kings would be wise to shut down another veteran or two. There’s no sense in playing Harrison Barnes 35+ minutes a game. Instead, let Davion Mitchell continue to grow and develop. Play Neemias Queta some minutes to see if he can be an option as a solid backup center next season.

In short, don’t pick up a couple of meaningless wins that cost us in May. Don’t do what the Kings have done every year the last couple of seasons.

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AmateurNerd
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March 22, 2022 11:59 am

Shutting down Fox and Barnes would be the sensible thing to do, so I predict KANGZ instead:

  • Fox continues to play 30+ minutes per night to “prepare for a strong start next season”
  • Barnes plays 30+ to magically increase his trade value over what it has been for the past 3 seasons
  • Fox tears ACL in 4th quarter of blowout loss vs. Suns
  • Barnes slips on vomit from courtside patron, breaks ankle in 3 places
  • Kings show interest in trading 2022 1st round pick for Bogdan Bogdanovic
  • KANGZ
NowLoveThemOnceAgain
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March 22, 2022 10:21 pm
Reply to  AmateurNerd

NBA 3.0.

alec26
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March 23, 2022 12:27 am
Reply to  AmateurNerd

If that’s all true, time to become a Warriors fan.

Klam
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Nostradumbass 18
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March 22, 2022 12:10 pm

More!!!!!
comment image

Last edited 1 year ago by Klam
andy_sims
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March 22, 2022 12:13 pm

I don’t love those two games at Houston, the Kings could win those by accident.

Marty
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March 22, 2022 12:15 pm

It’s exciting to think these last nine games could determine the future success of the sacramento kings.

1951
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March 22, 2022 12:15 pm

The lottery odds don’t shift wildly between spots 5 and 7, but the differences are still notable. The difference between 5 and 6 us a 5.1% better chance at a top 4 pick, and 1.5% better chance at the first pick overall. The differences are the same shifting from 6 to 7.

Your are focusing on the wrong numbers to diminish the big statistical difference between ending in the 5 versus 6 spot in the lotto.

The 6 spot in the lotto has a 54.3% chance of falling to 7-10; whereas the 5 spot has only a 36% chance of falling to 7-9.

It’s not just about the difference in chance to move up (5 spot has a 44.2% chance of being top 5; the 6 spot has a 37.2% chance of being top 5), it’s about the significantly larger chance of falling even further out of the top 6 from the 6 spot in the lotto versus the 5 spot.

RobHessing
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March 22, 2022 12:36 pm
Reply to  1951

Everyone has their own lines, but I have Holmgren and Smith on one tier and roughly four guys on the next (Ivey, Banchero, Griffin and Murray). At least one of those guys always drops, so I think we’re safe drafting as late as 8 for one of those guys, and even further down if you add guys like Sharpe, Mathurin and Davis.

The 5th slot puts you at a 44% chance of picking 1-5 and a 56% chance of picking 6-9.
The 6th slot puts you at a 37% chance of picking 1-4 and a 63% chance of picking 6-9 (with an 0.2% chance of picking 10th).

And lest we forget, the year that the Kings finished with the worst record, they wound up with the 4th pick. The year that they finished with tied for the 8th worst record they jumped to 3 (down to 5 thanks to Vlade’s pick swap), and the year that they finished tied for the 6th worst record (and lost the coin flip, I think), they jumped to 2.

The odds are the odds, but the difference between 5 and 6 is small, and further diluted by the fact that the odds are just that – odds. They are not the result.

1951
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March 22, 2022 12:41 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

Lots of ways to carve up the odds.

Small point is that better odds are better odds. We shall see how this all plays out.

RobHessing
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March 22, 2022 12:49 pm
Reply to  1951

Right. And sometimes the difference is so small that it is not worth the attention that it is given.

I noted this yesterday – the Kings have had a .280 or less winning percentage in 2022, over the last 25 games, and since the trade. That is along the lines of Oklahoma City’s season.

Also, you just can’t lose them all, no matter how hard you may want to. Houston has 18 wins, OKC 20, Orl and Det 19 each. The NBA coaches and players that are in the games play to win, and sometimes luck has it that two bad teams have to play each other. Someone had to win the Por – Det game, and someone is going to have to win the Ind – Sac game. And neither Carlisle, Gentry or any of the players in that game are going to willfully tank that game. And the last time that I checked the NBA rules, you do have to field a team for each game – you can’t forfeit.

Put me down for another year of not sweating the ping pong balls. Sometimes up is down, sometimes down is up, and sometimes it is what it is. I’ll leave the bean counting to others.

1951
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March 22, 2022 1:43 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

Sure. We have 9 games left. I am not losing sleep either way but the Kings landing 5 in the lotto is generally better than landing 6 in the lotto.

I am not stressing game to game, the math is just the math.

RobHessing
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March 22, 2022 1:52 pm
Reply to  1951

If given the choice, sure, I would prefer 5th. That said, the other night I was rooting for Davi and Damian to pull out the Phx. game. That would have been a very gratifying win for them.

Kingsguru21
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March 22, 2022 3:00 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

If given the choice, sure, I would prefer 5th. That said, the other night I was rooting for Davi and Damian to pull out the Phx. game. That would have been a very gratifying win for them.

This.

I root for players, and to a degree laundry. I do not root for ping pong balls.

Last edited 1 year ago by Kingsguru21
murraytant
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March 22, 2022 5:11 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

yes, lots of ways to carve the odds. and it is luck that defies the odds.
Rankings: close to Rob but not quite
Smith
Banchero
Chet (but I have so many misgivings about him)
Ivey- 4th best player but redundant
Murray
Griffin
Davis
Sharpe (high risk/high reward)
Mathurin I think he might be a better choice than Griffin, Davis or Sharpe)
That’s 8- seriously doubt if Kings fall below that

SAS don’t want to tank and have 3 games against Blazers.
Blazers, easy, peasy schedule but will only win by accident. The 3 with SAS are critical, Play SA next and this one is critical. Kings and Pacers on Wednesday. Best case: Pacers and Blazers win.
I think Kings finish 6 but get passed by a lower odds team. The collective odds of the upper 10 are pretty good.

alec26
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March 23, 2022 12:33 am
Reply to  RobHessing

There’s also the matter of the draft not being an exact science. The player picked #11 may have a better career than the player picked #4.

Kingsguru21
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March 22, 2022 1:58 pm
Reply to  1951

It’s not that your math is wrong Tony, it’s that your analysis and interpretation based on said analysis sucks.

Your are focusing on the wrong numbers to diminish the big statistical difference between ending in the 5 versus 6 spot in the lotto.

The 6 spot in the lotto has a 54.3% chance of falling to 7-10; whereas the 5 spot has only a 36% chance of falling to 7-9.

But you’re not? Let me educate you oh mighty pre shot clock championship banner.

5th slot Odds:

1st: 10.5%
2nd: 10.5%
3rd: 10.6%
4th: 10.5%
5th: 2.2%
6th: 19.6%
7th: 27.6%
8th: 3.7%
9th: 0.6%

You have a 47.2% chance of finishing 6 or 7. You have a 42.1% chance of finishing in the top 4. You have a 2.2% chance of staying at 5. You have a 4.3% chance at dropping to 8 or 9. You have a 99.4% chance at finishing 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 or 8.

6th slot odds:

1st: 9.0%
2nd: 9.2%
3rd: 9.4%
4th: 9.6%
5th: 0% (6 & below cannot move into 5)
6th: 8.6%
7th: 29.8%
8th: 20.8%
9th: 3.7%
10th: 0.2%

You have a 50.6% chance of finishing 7 or 8. You have a 37.2% chance of finishing in the top 4. You have a 8.6% chance at staying at 6 and and a 3.9% chance of dropping to 9 or 10. You have a 99.8% chance of finishing 1,2,3,4,6,7 or 8.

It seems to me the biggest difference here is that the 6th slot can’t move into 5 but the 5th slot can stay at 5 theoretically. (In the 3 lotteries under the current system, this has yet to happen.)

The biggest new difference in the lottery, other than the odds, is that 4 teams can jump instead of just 3. That’s why there’s so much potential for chaos, and why tanking isn’t as effective. You can’t just bake 3 teams jumping ahead of you if you’re the 2nd worst team into the calculation.

These are the draft lottery results from previous years. In 2021,Toronto jumped from 7 to 4, Cleveland 5 to 3, Detroit 2 to 1. Houston dropped from 1 to 2, Orlando dropped 3 to 5, OKC dropped 4 to 6 and Golden State (from Minnesota) dropped from 6 to 7.

In 2020, Minnesota jumped from 3 to 1, Charlotte jumped from 8 to 3, Chicago jumped from 7 to 4. Golden State dropped from 1 to 2, Cleveland dropped from 2nd to 5, Atlanta dropped from 4th to 6th, Detroit dropped from 5th to 7th, and New York dropped from 6th to 8th.

So if you wish to argue that there’s a big difference between 5-8 in this year’s draft and picks from 5, 6, 7 and 8 from each other, fine. Argue away. But historically speaking there isn’t and good franchises aren’t worried about lottery odds more than winning games.

(I can highlight key words, too. I love this game!)

This is from the other thread. And I agree. I do not agree that worrying about the final 9 games is especially effective.

Good sports franchises make rational decisions (meaning based on data and risk/reward analysis) even accounting that luck can always advance or inhibit good decision making.

Let me educate you on how a lottery works Tony. You get on your hands and knees. You pray to the lottery gods you did not piss them off. You hope that all is well. Then you find out the LA Clippers have the greatest NBA lottery luck of any team out there and you are now welcome to cry in your binkie. (I don’t cry over lotteries. I find it antithetical to my pre-existing condition of humandom.)

You’re welcome. I’m always here for ya bud.

1951
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March 22, 2022 2:16 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

That’s a lot of words just to establish that this is still true:

The 6 spot in the lotto has a 54.3% chance of falling to 7-10; whereas the 5 spot has only a 36% chance of falling to 7-9.

😉

Last edited 1 year ago by 1951
Kingsguru21
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March 22, 2022 2:54 pm
Reply to  1951

It’s alot of words illustrating that there’s a 99.6% chance the Kings finish at 8 or better at the 5th slot and a 99.8% chance that the Kings finish 9 or better at the 6th slot.

And it’s 55% to fall 6-8 at the 5th slot. And it’s 59% to be at 6-8 at the 6th slot. That 4% ain’t having me clutching that pearl homey.

1951
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March 22, 2022 3:23 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

6-8? Way to leave off stats on the back end, homey!

That’s called number manipulation where I come from! 😉

Kingsguru21
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March 22, 2022 4:25 pm
Reply to  1951

Yeah, I can actually count AND interpret things as they are intended, not because it fits my narrative I’m selling.

So your backend ‘numbers’ amount to 3.9%. That’s at the 6th slot finishing 9th or 10th.

Both 5 and 6 have nearly identical percentages (55 to 59%) to finish 6-8. That’s the point. To discourage tankers like you from your preferred scenario. To encourage teams to focus on wins and not lottery odds.

I’m sorry that simple math disagrees with you. Maybe you’ll get luckier in the next life.

1951
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March 23, 2022 7:40 am
Reply to  Kingsguru21

This is so weird. I’ll just post this:

F56962B4-D380-4FA3-8866-08C160DDDB55.jpeg
1951
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March 23, 2022 7:46 am
Reply to  1951

5 spot: 63.9% chance of being top 6.
6 spot: 45.8% chance of being top 6.

You have a much better than 50% chance of being top 6 from the 5 spot.

You have a better than 50% chance of being 7-10 from the 6 spot.

But tell me again what is the point?

Last edited 1 year ago by 1951
Kingsguru21
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March 23, 2022 11:14 am
Reply to  1951

But tell me again what is the point?

You win. Congratulations. I’m tapping out forever on this topic.

Marty
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March 22, 2022 3:52 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

This is the most Sacramento Kings thread ever.

Kingsguru21
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March 22, 2022 4:41 pm
Reply to  Marty

This is the most Sacramento Kings thread ever.

Yeah, it definitely is an encapsulation of the last decade and half for sure. I’m old enough to remember when it wasn’t.

Hamlet1989
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March 22, 2022 8:22 pm
Reply to  Marty

That’s what I was thinking!!!

1951
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March 23, 2022 7:49 am
Reply to  Marty

Ping pong balls is all this franchise has given us for almost two decades! 😉

murraytant
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March 22, 2022 5:00 pm
Reply to  1951

Thanks for the re-focus on numbers. IMO there are 3 ways to look at the numbers:

  1. Greg’s- better % in moving up
  2. 1951’s better % in moving down
  3. the ultimate draft position- assuming no move up or down. Last year: one slot- difference between Davion and Wagner. So 5 is better than 6 and both are better than 7.
RobHessing
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March 22, 2022 12:22 pm

Not for nothing, but meaningless wins got the Kings a jump up in the lottery in both ’17 and ’18.

The Kings will wind up 5th or 6th. I’m not going to stay up nights worrying about a 21% chance vs. an 18% chance at a top 2 pick.

andy_sims
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March 22, 2022 12:39 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

I’m up anyway, so I’ll just add that to the list.

Carl
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March 22, 2022 3:57 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

OK, but do you know where the list even is right now? Are you SURE it’s not in the shred pile or the old mail pile?

Last edited 1 year ago by Carl
Hamlet1989
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March 22, 2022 8:25 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

I think I agree with everyone in this argument. But especially you Rob.

Kings-Rebuild
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March 22, 2022 12:52 pm

The difference between the 5th and 6th record could be substantial. You have almost a 19% better chance to stay within the top 6 by having the 5th worst record as opposed to the 6th worst record. I prefer the Kings end up with the 5th worst record and we should make sure we don’t win that Indiana game. The two games against Houston can be problematic but of course the balls don’t always follow the odds and often we get something that defies the odds. Something however to consider, with the 5th worst record, you have about a 63% chance to remain in the top 6.

Kings-Rebuild
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March 22, 2022 12:54 pm
Reply to  Kings-Rebuild

Tanking doesn’t occur by players giving less than 100%, it occurs by how teams deploy their rosters.

Kingsguru21
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March 22, 2022 1:10 pm

Asking for a friend, but whose the savior the Kings would be missing out on if they somehow get extraordinarily unlucky and drop to 10?*

* = I’m assuming the Kings end up in the 6th slot

andy_sims
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March 22, 2022 1:34 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

I don’t know if there are any saviors to be had that late, but Mathurin could be a nice addition at wing, and will fit in because his defense isn’t great. He’s a terrific athlete, and could certainly become a good defender.

RobHessing
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March 22, 2022 1:45 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

There’s a double-edged sword to this. Let me first say that I don’t think that the Kings will trade the pick. That said, the higher the pick, the more valuable and the more potential suitors you will find. Of course, the higher the pick, the more unwilling the front office may be to deal it.

Obviously, the higher the pick, the more valuable it is. But as I have referenced elsewhere, we’re not talking about an assurance of a pick here, just a few more percentage points in your favor once the ping pong balls drop.

Kingsguru21
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March 22, 2022 3:20 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

Let me first say that I don’t think that the Kings will trade the pick. 

I see your point as historically they do not. But I can definitely see a trade if the right circumstances come about which is pretty standard for ‘do what makes you better.’ Which we don’t know yet either. But I get the sense the odds could be as high as 50% depending on where the Kings end up and what they could get.

Hypothetical for you. Kings get #2 overall. Team in front of them takes Chet Holmgren. You have the opportunity to acquire Pascal Siakam with that pick. Do you trade the #2 for a guy like Siakam? Obviously Barnes and other players would need to be included salary wise, but it’s an interesting thought for me.

Is this a good draft A) and B) How do other teams feel about it? Like you say, the higher the pick the more attractive in trade it is.

Adamsite
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March 22, 2022 4:18 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

Because I’m not 100% sure, when a team trades for a pick at the draft, is the value of that pick the rookie scale contract? If so, then the Kings would need to add a whole lot more to the #2 to match the salary of Siakam, right?

From that, the #2 and Barnes would likely have to be the matching salary, and I think I’d pass. Yes, you could add Siakam, but you are leaving another hole vacated by Barnes, but now you have even less cap space. I’d prefer to role with Smith Jr and Barnes than just Siakam.

Kingsguru21
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March 22, 2022 4:51 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Because I’m not 100% sure, when a team trades for a pick at the draft, is the value of that pick the rookie scale contract? 

How dare you ask this question?!?!?!? You should know the answer! Seriously, when you draft a player, the cap hold of the player is added to a team’s salary as soon as the player is drafted and the cap hold is the scale amount of the pick at 120%.

In terms of trade value, the dollar value of a pick is 0$. And you cannot trade a signed rookie until 30 days after signing.

Here’s Coon’s FAQ on the whole thing.

Last edited 1 year ago by Kingsguru21
Adamsite
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March 22, 2022 5:29 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

So if the pick is traded right up until before the draft it has zero value, but the moment the player is drafted, then traded, the cap hold is 120% of the rookie scale?

I’d think once the lottery happens and picks are set the rookie scale value would kick in, meaning if a pick is traded between the lottery and the draft, the cap hold would kick in and the rookie scale would be counted in the trade.

Kingsguru21
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March 22, 2022 6:08 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

So if the pick is traded right up until before the draft it has zero value, but the moment the player is drafted, then traded, the cap hold is 120% of the rookie scale?

No. The pick if it’s traded is 0$ period. The cap hold is the cap hold and the cap hold is the same as the salary of the player which is why they sign quickly. But the cap hold immediately goes onto the books of whatever team ends up with the pick.

For example, when the Kings selected Davion Mitchell, his cap hold went on the books as soon as he was taken at the 9th pick. But if he were traded that day it would have counted 0$ in the trade for salary matching purposes.

The most important factor of trading a pick on draft day is that it’s no longer a future pick once you make the pick so you can trade your pick and the next year’s pick without violating the Stepien Rule.

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March 22, 2022 8:01 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

I understand all that, and the Steipen Rule, my question was in regards to trading the pick before the draft. If, by chance, the Kings traded their pick between the lottery and the draft, does it carry monetary value in terms of matching contracts since it’s place and scale are a known.?

Let’s say the Kings land #2 and want to package it with Barnes to Toronto for Siakam, does that #2 pick have the contract value of a #2 cap hold and salary impact, or would the Kings need to send additional salary to match up Siakam with Barnes, regardless of the #2. My apologies if I’m being vague or confusing.

Maybe my question is when does a future pick cross the line of becoming not a future pick and have cap implications? Is it immediately after the pick is made and that is why so many trades happen during the draft?

In my mind, once the lottery happens, all picks should have monetary value since they are a known and the Stepien Rule should no longer apply. What is the point of waiting until draft day?

It’s totally hypothetical and unlikely as very few trades are made between the end of the season and the draft, but I was just curious.

Kingsguru21
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March 23, 2022 8:51 am
Reply to  Adamsite

Let’s say the Kings land #2 and want to package it with Barnes to Toronto for Siakam, does that #2 pick have the contract value of a #2 cap hold and salary impact, or would the Kings need to send additional salary to match up Siakam with Barnes, regardless of the #2. My apologies if I’m being vague or confusing.

I fear I have misled by giving you too much information. My apologies. (So what am i going to do? Give you more information below. Dumbass, I.) The dollar value is always zero in trading draft rights.

To answer this question, if the Kings were to trade for Siakam, they’d need to add salary, likely Richaun Holmes, to Barnes to make the trade work. Barnes + Holmes plus the #2 pick (0$ for trade purposes) works. And extra pieces can always be added if need be.

In my mind, once the lottery happens, all picks should have monetary value since they are a known and the Stepien Rule should no longer apply. What is the point of waiting until draft day?

Well, they do actually. That’s kinda what the point of having the cap hold added as soon as you draft the player is about. If the Kings get the 2nd pick, that cap hold would be 9,678,840$$. That’s also the maximum amount the player can sign for, and that’s why they end up signing quickly. Most of the negotiation between player and teams are how much of that 120% of scale (the scale amount for a 2nd pick is 8,065,700$$) is guaranteed and what incentives you have to hit to guaranteed your money.

Think of it this way. On May 17th this year, the lottery happens. You know what pick you’re going to be at. Say it’s the 2nd overall pick (I sometimes use 1:2 after years of following MLB drafts. It means the same thing. FYI.) and your overall cap hold is 9.678M like I’ve said. You know that’s the cap hold, but the reality is doesn’t matter WHEN it gets applied. That cap hold will be in effect when it matters which is July 1. That’s when it comes into play. It really doesn’t matter if it gets applied May 17th, June 23rd (which is when it gets applied) or any day in between. The effect is the same. It doesn’t change anything business wise.

This is why, if you trade for a player who has a contract this year and next, you use this year’s salary and not next years even though the player has been paid entirely for this season. It’s still this fiscal year. You always operate in the current fiscal year. For example this is the 2021-22 fiscal year. You think of it as the NBA season, but it’s the same thing.

Why the fiscal year doesn’t begin with the draft and end with the NBA Finals I do not know. That would be the preferred way of doing it, IMO, but it makes no ostensible difference in practice. And it’s certainly easier to start a fiscal year on the first year of a month and end it on the last day of a month than having to start your fiscal year on June 23rd and end it June 27th the next year. (You’re welcome to ignore all this. I’m just mouthing off, mostly. For the 4 people who might read this and understand it.)

It’s totally hypothetical and unlikely as very few trades are made between the end of the season and the draft, but I was just curious.

It is totally hypothetical, and honestly teams have gotten smart enough to know there’s no sense in doing trades before the draft itself happens unless they are moving NBA players in trades. They have the week in the ramp up to FA and the July Moratorium to make deals, too. They spend their time now figuring out which players they want to draft, which players they want to trade for and sign in Free Agency. They don’t want to make deals before everyone is ready to come to the table. It’s the adage of any deal: You leave value on the table by not including all potential buyers, right?

That’s why trades don’t happen until the draft. 30 teams arent prepared to make deals before the day of the draft. And everyone is talking and negotiating with agents, themselves and other things as is.

Plus, you can’t make trades on draft day before the draft pick is actually made anyway.

Welcome to the high powered world of a 6 billion dollar annual business you stuck in the sticks rube. 🙂

(Hope this helps Adam.)

RobHessing
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March 22, 2022 4:26 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

Hey, I would consider trading the #3 pick if Chet & JSJ are off the board, and if Portland is hot to trot on a prospect maybe you can get Hart, the 7 & 9 for the pick. Deal me in! All of that said, I think that there is a pragmatism to this front office that makes a draft day trade unlikely.

Kingsguru21
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March 22, 2022 4:46 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

All of that said, I think that there is a pragmatism to this front office that makes a draft day trade unlikely.

That same pragmatism is what makes me think they’ll take their shot instead of seeing only the downside. They won’t have a job if they don’t get this summer right. This is assuming the right trade is available. It may not be!

 if Portland is hot to trot on a prospect maybe you can get Hart, the 7 & 9 for the pick. 

I have no problem with this type of deal. Only caveat is to get it right. Vlade never could.

Carl
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March 22, 2022 4:00 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

I think the Kings trade the pick if it’s outside the top 3.

Adamsite
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March 22, 2022 4:13 pm
Reply to  Carl

I think it depends on who drops to 4 or even 5. I’m with Rob in that I think it is 2 player draft in Smith and Chet after that I think tier two is Ivey, Paolo, Griffin and Murray, but they could go in any order. If, by chance Monte has Griffin at #3 on his big board but he drops to the Kings, say at #6, he’s taking him.

From that, if the Kings fall to #7 and those 6 are all off the board, that’s when I think the pick gets traded. However, that opinion is as of today. A lot can change between now and the draft.

RobHessing
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March 22, 2022 4:29 pm
Reply to  Carl

I don’t know that the front office sees the “meter running” in the same way that we do, and they just don’t strike me as a snap decision front office. Yes, they could have something pre-arranged, but I have my doubts. As much sense as it makes, I see a draft day deal of the pick as being a 10-15% thing.

Hamlet1989
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March 22, 2022 8:37 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

I like Shaedon Sharpe. Draft for upside. Unless you get a franchise type player you’ll need help in free agency, or trades. That’s where you find bona fide pros. Look to the draft for stars.

BestHyperboleEver
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March 22, 2022 3:37 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

They likely miss out on the Sharpe, Griffin, Murray tier. All of which would be good picks for the Kings IMO. After that trip is my personal line where I start thinking of trading down.

Last edited 1 year ago by BestHyperboleEver
KingofNOthing
March 22, 2022 1:54 pm

Here we are again my friends. Excited about another Lottery ping pong ball. Even if they get 1st pick, the Kings are like Lucy tricking Charlie Brown with the football. They will ruin the pick by either picking the wrong player, or by picking the right player, and then trading him away.

I feel for Charlie Brown.

andy_sims
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March 22, 2022 2:25 pm
Reply to  KingofNOthing

This is reflexive nonsense. The current GM has shown very clearly that he’s able to assess talent and make smart choices. It’s always a crapshoot, but our kid Monte is two for two.

KingofNOthing
March 22, 2022 2:30 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

Lol, can he clearly assess talent? I would argue that. He traded for arguably the least important position in a center that can`t shoot, and traded away a better at passing/shooting in a wing that was highly coveted around the league. Remember, the league was in shock when the trade happened, and not in a good way. I think you give Monte way too much credit.

Last edited 1 year ago by KingofNOthing
andy_sims
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March 22, 2022 3:41 pm
Reply to  KingofNOthing

He turned a 12 pick into a two-time all-star, while at the same time ridding the cap sheet of one Buddy Hield.

I miss Ty, too, but I make that deal ten times out of ten.

BestHyperboleEver
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March 22, 2022 3:42 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

He also shortened his runway and, to some degree, hitched his wagon to Fox. We’ll see how that plays out.

andy_sims
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March 22, 2022 3:48 pm

It’ll work or it won’t, but it’s a clear direction, which, while not everything, is certainly a damn sight better than anything we’ve seen in dozen years.

If it crashes and burns, McNair will be gone, but I’ll be happy that someone with a clue had the opportunity to pursue a cogent philosophy. A chance is all you get, you make the best decisions that you can, and you live with it.

Kingsguru21
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March 22, 2022 4:38 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

It’ll work or it won’t, but it’s a clear direction, which, while not everything, is certainly a damn sight better than anything we’ve seen in dozen years.

If it crashes and burns, McNair will be gone, but I’ll be happy that someone with a clue had the opportunity to pursue a cogent philosophy. A chance is all you get, you make the best decisions that you can, and you live with it.

Amen. I’ll gladly co-sign this if you require it (I highly doubt you do though).

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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March 22, 2022 4:19 pm

I’m guessing it’s because Monte doesn’t have that much runway to begin with. He needs to start winning ASAP or update his resume.

Kingsguru21
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March 22, 2022 4:36 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

I’m guessing it’s because Monte doesn’t have that much runway to begin with. He needs to start winning ASAP or update his resume.

That’s generally true of alot of franchises. It’s not like you can lose for 5 years and it’s okay. Even Vlade lost his job for that magic trick.

Adamsite
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March 22, 2022 5:31 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

And that is one of the major reasons why Hali was traded for Sabonis. Monte doesn’t have time to wait for Hali’s development, which also may mean he doesn’t have time to wait on this year’s draft pick.

The pick and salaries for a 3rd fiddle to Fox and Sabonis may be what Monte is leaning toward.

Kingsguru21
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March 22, 2022 6:12 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Monte doesn’t have time to wait for Hali’s development, which also may mean he doesn’t have time to wait on this year’s draft pick.

There’s also the RSN coming up for a new deal factor in a few years. I don’t think the Kings can afford to tank heading into negotiations with Comcast for a new deal. This isn’t a problem if you have good enough ratings, but the Kings are probably hurting there.

Adamsite
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March 22, 2022 7:49 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

Solid point, Nate.

An aside, I really wonder if the NBA is going to be the first major sports league in the US to cut the cable cord. After this year’s fiasco with Denver’s tv issues I have to think the next major cable deal and CBA may look more to on demand streaming. I know the Kings are one of, if not the last reason I have DirecTV. Where I am in the foothills, internet can be spotty, but it’s improving, so I still need that satellite feed.

Kingsguru21
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March 23, 2022 9:47 am
Reply to  Adamsite

An aside, I really wonder if the NBA is going to be the first major sports league in the US to cut the cable cord. After this year’s fiasco with Denver’s tv issues I have to think the next major cable deal and CBA may look more to on demand streaming. I know the Kings are one of, if not the last reason I have DirecTV. Where I am in the foothills, internet can be spotty, but it’s improving, so I still need that satellite feed.

What you describe, Adam, is called a carriage dispute. And the Nuggets have been in one for what is I believe 3 years now. (Greg would know for sure, but it dates back at least 3 years for sure. That’s when I first noticed it.)

Anyhoo, carriage disputes are rarely solved quickly. The Astros abandoned their quest to push CSN Houston on everyone after a few years, and the Dodgers took 5 years i think to get TimeWarner SportsNet into more homes than not in SoCal.

At some point, it’s going to come to roost. But I doubt Denver will be the impetus of it. The bigger issue for Sac is they have been very bad business for NBC Sports (Comcast) for years now. That’s going to be a problem in negotiations, and even more if this team is bad and fans tune out in the next several years as they clearly are now.

Last edited 1 year ago by Kingsguru21
BestHyperboleEver
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March 22, 2022 5:07 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Which is fair. I mean, it’s pretty rare for any NBA team to spend more than a few years outside the playoffs.

rockbottom
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March 23, 2022 6:35 am
Reply to  KingofNOthing

Kings made a great deal. Several guard/wings available in this draft as good as Hali and zero bigs where Kings likely to pick . Also, Mitchell may well prove to be a better fit with Fox .

BestHyperboleEver
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March 22, 2022 3:40 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

It’s not a crapshoot. It isn’t an exact science, but it’s not a crapshoot. And saying it is would imply that Monte doesn’t deserve credit for his picks.

andy_sims
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March 22, 2022 3:43 pm

Of course it is. You make the best selection that you can based on exhaustive research and team need, but if he blows out both knees in training camp, it doesn’t mean that the selection was wrong. That’s just bad luck, which fortunately never happens around here.

BestHyperboleEver
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March 22, 2022 5:10 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

But that isn’t a common occurrence. Just because a freak accident could happen doesn’t mean the entire process is a crap shoot. That said, it DOES manage to simultaneously discredit teams that make good selections AND absolve teams that make bad selections. So that’s a nice bonus.

rockbottom
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March 23, 2022 6:39 am

Like Zion ? Clear #1 at the time but Ja Morant seems far more valuable today !

Bitgod
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March 22, 2022 2:14 pm

From some of the draft talk I’ve looked at, there’s a clear top 3+1. So being 5th as opposed to 6th would probably give the Kangz their choice of wings rather than having to take what’s left. So of course, Kangz will go 5-4 and get boned at 7 or 8th.

I just want them to get the 2nd pick again, for the lolz.

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March 22, 2022 4:24 pm
Reply to  Bitgod

The #2 pick would be gold for Monte, IMO better than #1, not to mention the cheaper salary. You get to pick the leftover of a two player draft without the real pressure if the one you pick isn’t is as good, it’s not really your fault. It wouldn’t be a bonehead reach like Bagley. I’d wager damn near every GM his Chet and Smith as 1a and 1b.

Picking #1 and ending up with the lesser of the two talents could end Monte’s career as GM.

BestHyperboleEver
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March 22, 2022 5:14 pm
Reply to  Bitgod

Personally, I think there are 2 three player tiers. I’m personally not as high on Ivey as many. He’s can be an exciting, explosive scorer, but guards that don’t facilitate well just aren’t my personal cup of tea. Personally, I group Holmgrem/Smith/Banchero then Sharpe/Murray/Griffin. Then you get to Ivey/Davis/Mathurin/Etc. As I mention elsewhere, that gap between tier 2 and 3 is where I start thinking more about trading the pick.

murraytant
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March 22, 2022 5:27 pm

Interesting. Are your tiers determined through the lens of the Kings or through the lens of most teams? I agree with you on Ivey and I think that’s how the Kings see it but many other teams see Ivey as a Ja type athlete player. Sharpe is high risk/high reward. Davis high floor, not super high ceiling. Murray- high/high and Griffin high/high.
Mathurin might be better than Kuminga- not as athletic but a better basketball player.

BestHyperboleEver
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March 22, 2022 6:09 pm
Reply to  murraytant

Just through my own lens. I’m not trying to guess too much at what front offices think. I disagree a bit with some of your assessments. For example, Ivey is a Ja type of athlete, but isn’t nearly the passer Ja was. If I’m looking for a ceiling comp for Ivey from a recent draft it probably looks a lot more like Edwards than Morant. I also don’t think Sharpe is an especially high risk. Mathurin also doesn’t have anything approaching the physical assets or athleticism of Kuminga. I would also quibble about him being a better basketball player. Giving that they’re only 4 months apart in age, imagine what Kuminga would do to the NCAA if he were playing at that level. We’ll see where he lands, but at the moment I think Mathurin is riding a hype wave from his 30 point night vs. TCU that has people overrating him.

BeTheBall
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March 22, 2022 2:27 pm

Can we just fast-forward to the lottery already?

RobHessing
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March 22, 2022 5:22 pm
Reply to  BeTheBall

‘22 or ‘23?

murraytant
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March 22, 2022 5:27 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

23 has Victor Weyemba

Hamlet1989
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March 22, 2022 8:55 pm

On Tankathon’s Mock draft the only guy I don’t like for the Kings all the way to #13 is Tyty Washington. And he might not be bad! Point Guard seems like the position of least need, and Tyty is the only guy in the top 20 listed as a PG.
There shouldn’t be much argument about Fit vs. Ceiling because they need to fill two starter spots. Also, I think this roster is a bit easier to find fit for in the draft because their three best players can move up or down in the line-up. Fox can play 1 or 2 (and so can Davion), Barnes can play 3 or 4. And Sabonis can play at 4 or 5. So it’s all about upside! BPA!!!

NowLoveThemOnceAgain
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March 22, 2022 10:24 pm

This pathetic situation is why I Used to Love the Kings.
Fans have been conditioned to losing.

alec26
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March 23, 2022 12:47 am

Looking at past Kings drafts it’s rare that they miss out on a big-name player just because of one or two positions in the draft. In 2008 the Kings could have picked Joachim Noah instead of Spencer Hawes if they had the 9th pick instead of the 10th pick. In 2014, Julius Randle went at 7 and the Kings picked Nick Stauskis at 8. More times than that an all-star/hall of famer is picked after the Kings pick: Stephen Curry, Luka Doncic, Damien Lillard, Devin Booker, Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Jokic, to name a few. Just pick one or two of them.

rockbottom
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March 23, 2022 6:50 am
Reply to  alec26

Agree, it’s almost always the pick and not the number . Last 2 MVP’s were selected 16 and 2nd round ( Giannis, Jokic ) . Jalen Suggs was last years sure top 3 pick and went 5 . So far looks like a questionable value . Toronto was booed for taking Barnes but may be ROY .

andy_sims
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March 23, 2022 11:46 am
Reply to  alec26

The Kings have made some pretty bad choices, but this is still revisionist history. Most of these guys were passed up by a lot of teams, and in Jokic’s case, passed up more than once.

You can do this same exercise with any team in any sport, and it’ll make any of them look like they’ve been run by monkeys.

You yourself could’ve bought Zoom, Apple or Amazon stock when they were cheap. Why didn’t you?

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