On Tuesday evening, the Sacramento Kings experienced one of their most embarrassing collapses in franchise history. After dominating the Phoenix Suns for the first three-and-a-half quarters, the Kings squandered possession after possession, failed to play defense, and allowed the Suns to work their way back into what should have been a blowout victory on the road for Sacramento, with the final result being a two-point Phoenix victory.
Single game collapses aren’t necessarily season-defining, nor should they lead to panic moves by the front office of a team currently sporting a 23-17 record (although a move or two certainly is in order), but Tuesday night’s blown lead did help to define a concerning trend for Sacramento this season. Opposing teams have realized that late game change-ups, whether they be a zone defense or playing Kevin Durant at the five or switching a big defender onto De’Aaron Fox or a dozen other other small shifts, throw the Kings into a tizzy, resulting in hero ball, bad shots, live-ball turnovers, and general chaos.
The King don’t handle change well.
When those shifts occur, and a game gets close in the closing minutes, Mike Brown deploys one strategy and one strategy only: let the guards chuck. Outside of De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk, every single regular closer for the Kings sees their average usage rate decrease in clutch time, with Domantas Sabonis and Keegan Murray feeling the most dramatic effects.
| Player | Avg. Usage | Clutch usage | Differential |
| De’Aaron Fox | 30.7% | 38.2% | 7.5% |
| Malik Monk | 23.8% | 26.2% | 2.4% |
| Domantas Sabonis | 22.3% | 15.8% | -6.5% |
| Keegan Murray | 18.7% | 12.1% | -6.6% |
| Kevin Huerter | 17.5% | 15.7% | -1.8% |
| Harrison Barnes | 13.3% | 9.9% | -3.4% |
To be fair to Mike Brown, this same strategy worked wonders for the Kings last year, as there was a reason De’Aaron Fox won the Clutch Player of the Year Award. In fact, Fox’s usage rate was even higher, a ridiculous 42.8%, but he hit shot after shot after shot – something not seen in Sacramento this season.
When a player’s field goal percentage dips as dramatically as Fox’s has, from 52.9% last season to 39.6% this year, some of those struggles can be attributed to nothing more than simply missing shots, but a larger theme seems to be at play. When opposing coaches know that Fox is going to be one of only two players with the ball, and they’ve had an entire offseason to work up strategies for that exact situation, shots are going to be tougher to find and tougher to hit. Add in a dramatic shift in shot selection, and Fox’s lack of clutch success begins to make a little more sense.
In 2022-2023, 16% of De’Aaron’s clutch shots came from behind the three-point line, and he made 32% of those attempts. This year, a whopping 27% of his shots are three-pointers, and he’s 0 for 13 in those situations. He’s getting to the rim less often, attempting fewer mid-range jumpers, and missing the three-pointers he refused to settle for last season. In a similar, albeit less dramatic dip, Malik Monk has also struggled with his shot in clutch minutes. Last year, he made 52.6% of his field goals and a bonkers 43.8% of his three-pointers. This season, he’s dipped to 47.1% and 27.8% respectively.
Opposing teams know that if they can trip the Kings up late, Malik Monk and De’Aaron Fox are taking over, no matter the result. Domantas Sabonis won’t shoot, and Keegan Murray, Kevin Huerter, and Harrison Barnes aren’t allowed to shoot, allowing defenders to focus the vast majority of their attention on Sacramento’s two guards and no one else.
Until the Kings can demonstrate an ability to adapt to shifting strategies, and until they can learn to remain calm and execute their every-game offense in close-game situations, they’ll continue to struggle as they did in Tuesday night’s loss. Hero ball simply isn’t a winning strategy, even if it worked in the past.
Glad to to see the numbers support the eye test.
Sad to see the eye test on that one.
They can’t take away Fox’s award can they?
No but they don’t have to give him one this year. You know and I know basketball is a team sport. The Kings and coaches need to figure this out before its too late.
It was definitely a team loss, but I remember thinking in the third and fourth quarters, why is Monk initiating the offense so much? He had five turnovers, and it felt like there were twice as many.
Monk is a capable guy, but he doesn’t put defenses on edge the way that Fox does. A good defender can deal with Monk, but Fox generally requires team defense. When Fox is standing in the frontcourt with twenty seconds left on the shot clock, the defense has to account for him at the rim, in the paint, and increasingly, from the arc. Monk can score at three levels, but it just isn’t the same as Fox, who tends to be more careful with the ball.
I picked Phoenix to win in the prediction contest yesterday, and was thoroughly enjoying being wrong for the first forty minutes. I think it was at the point where the Suns scored on four straight possessions where I thought, Sacramento is going to blow this, and then just sat there glumly as it all fell apart in high-definition.
An excellent writeup here, and you’re right, the Kings have to get more diverse in their play calls, even if only to give the impression that front court players might require more attention in crunch time.
From COTY to..
I don’t question Brown’s decision to have Monk on the floor as much as I question Monk’s decision making. That said, the decision to pull Sabonis and then immediately run an ill-fated DHO with Barnes baffled me.
You’re up 22 with a little over 8 minutes to play. While it would be counterproductive to go into a four corners, the simple adjustment of not shooting early in the shot clock unless the shot is wide open seems pretty obvious. And spreading the floor to force the Suns into overplaying the defense seems like it would be a pretty good idea as well.
It almost seemed to me that the Kings had their collective pants on fire to put the game away between the 6-8 minute mark so that it could pull the starters. I can’t come up with another explanation as to why a team with a 22 point lead would play with such haste and hubris.
It’s either a learning moment or an affliction. Time will tell. But man, it went from the best of times to the worst of times in the blink of an eye.
You know this happens almost every time the Kings get a good lead they can’t build on it but usually just fumbles it away. Last night was a perfect example.
Excellent analysis.
When Kings get out of their offensive rhythm and “slow it down”–which means 1 on 1, iso-ball, it rarely works. For Kings to ever compete in the top tier, this aspect of their game needs to change–soon!
ISO possessions tend to be less points per possession too, so it makes even less sense if a team wants to win.
Iso allows double and even triple defense.
Siakam to the Pacers. That should be interesting. Quite the steep price, in my opinion.
It’s a bargain if he re-signs with Indy, expensive if he winds up being a rental. Brown is a little pricy, Nwora is nothing special, and the three picks will likely all be late 1st rounders.
The eye test everyone seems to have noticed on Fox being “off” seems to be backed up by his raw shooting stats over the last month or so when they’ve basically been a .500 team. Since 12/18 he’s taking fewer 2 pointers (about 2 less per game) at a lower over all FG% while also taking 2.5 fewer FTs and shooting 66% from the line during this stretch. 3 point shooting has been consistent in terms of attempts and makes but the attack portion of his game has been missing. The clutch stats seem to reflect that downturn as well after the MVP type start he had to the season. He’s still a stud but hopefully he can get a bit more aggressive again throughout the games so it doesn’t feel like he’s got to turn it on late.
this year’s team isn’t mentally tough or clutch like last year. soft and probably thinking the playoffs are gifted after last year
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Fox seems hurt to me, which is why he’s settling for the 3 rather than go to the lane. And he’s not finishing with as much authority or conviction as he did earlier in the season.
Keegan, HB, and Huerter all should be used as spacers, which only works if Monk and Fox are willing passers and touching the paint, or if the team is running defenders at them. Domas needs to continue to assert himself when smaller/weaker players are guarding him. How can he not dominate Durant in the paint? Score or force a double and kick out, or hit a cutter. It is what the offense is designed to do.
The Monk/Domas PnR is effective but seems to not be used down the stretch enough or teams are defending it much better.
They know the PnR is coming, and that Monk is going to make that pass. He gets tunnel vision at times and misses open shooters. I think he has trust issues with Huerter, HB, and Murray. Be interested to see which players he assists the most and least.
Yup, I’ve noticed him sometimes grabbing his shoulder/arm, and it looks like his ankle is bothering him.I think the Kings have been riding him too long, and it’s showing.
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