Welcome back to Chainmail! Special guest Sanjesh decided to stop by the mailroom and throw his thoughts into the ring.
Before we get to the answers, want to thank our sponsor for the mailbag, Carter Imports! Carter Imports is a Sacramento-based company that imports some of the very best Extra Virgin Olive Oil and Cretan Thyme Honey available in the world today. There has never been a better time to support one of our own than right now!
Let’s dive right in!
From TyrekeFan18
What will be the Kings record this season?
Tim: If the Kings keep their roster relatively close to what it is now, I think they’re in for a 30-ish win season, which would equate to 35 wins in an 82 game season. If the Kings semi-blow things up like I believe they’re going to do, we’re looking at about 24 wins, or 28 in a standard year.
Will: I think without any major moves, the Kings are trending for right around 23-25 wins. They don’t look bad on paper: Hassan Whiteside puts up stats and could be an interesting fit, Marvin Bagley is a complete unknown who could be in a real make or break season in terms of his long term value for the Kings and the fantastic draft that Monte McNair and company had makes for interesting bench minutes. But, the Western Conference is stacked, the timeline is tightened up and they’re still coached by Luke Walton. Yes, they went out and grabbed some well respected assistants in Alvin Gentry and Rex Kalamian but it isn’t going to matter than much in the grand scheme. When Monte McNair holds himself a garage sale during the Kings now semi-annual spring cleaning, the Kings are going to bottom out hard and the focus will move to rookies getting time. If Walton is fired early on or the Kings start out the gate 1-10 (which isn’t out of the realm of possibility), the youth movement might come sooner and with it, a sub-20 win season.
Sanjesh: Tough question with the first pitch, I see. This season can conclude in a variety of ways, depending how healthy teams remain when it’s all said and done. If the Kings hope to clutch onto a playoff spot, they’d likely be the result of multiple playoff-lock teams falling apart for whatever circumstance. But that’s easier said than done, because there’s multiple playoff-fringe teams the Kings would need to surpass for a playoff spot. It’s a shortened season; teams can’t afford multiple slip-ups. If all teams sustain good health, the Kings are probably looking at a win total in the early 20s. I don’t think this is the year when the rain pours to end the drought, and with the 2021 draft class, that’s not a bad thing.
From Farmer Guy
Now that most (or all) of the final free agency moves have been made:
Who do you predict makes the final roster?
What is your predicted depth chart to start the season?
Tim: Here’s what I’ve got. First, Frank Kaminsky is cut. After that:
Rotation
Fox/Joseph
Hield/Haliburton
Barnes/GR3
Bagley/Bjelica
Holmes/Whiteside
Spot minutes
Jeffries, Woodard, Parker
Out of rotation
Ramsey, James
Two-way
Guy, Metu
Will: I think we’ll see an early season lineup of Fox/Hield/Barnes/Bjelica/Holmes with the bench rotation being Joseph/Haliburton/GR3/Bagley/Whiteside being used. If he can stay healthy, Bagley will be in the starting lineup within 15 games, but where he’s recovering from COVID-19 and hasn’t played in a year, I think the coaching staff will want to bring him along slowly and get his confidence early playing against bench guys that he can just outrun and out jump. As the season wears on, I think we’ll see Whiteside start some depending on the matchup, to boost what little value he might have and we’ll see Jeffries and Woodard get more minutes in the second half of the season, especially if the Kings are active at the deadline.
Sanjesh: Let’s spice up the rotation (no way does Luke Walton do this)
Fox/CoJo/Ramsey
Haliburton/GR3/James
Hield/Jeffries/Woodard (who can play the 4 too)
Barnes/Bjelica/Parker
Bagley/Holmes/Whiteside
Two-Ways:
Kyle Guy (give him a shot at PG), one of Metu/Edwards/Rose (whoever impresses the most)
From: RandyBreuersNeckHair:
In a perfect world, who are we drafting next year?
Tim: Cade Cunningham is the best prospect since Anthony Davis and would perfectly complement both De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton. Assuming that the Kings don’t luck into the first overall pick, there are still a ton of good long-term wing options. Any one of Jonathan Kuminga, Ziaire Williams, or BJ Boston would be a fantastic pick up for the Kings. The 2021 draft class seems perfectly built for their small forward needs.
Will: In a perfect world, its Cade. In a world closer to reality where the Kings aren’t picking in the top four picks, I think it’s going to come down to Kuminga, BJ Boston if he’s there and, my personal guy to watch Scottie Barnes. Barnes is a weird one, drawing comparisons to Draymond Green with his mix of defensive presence, better than most passing ability and his high basketball IQ. He’s a defensive forward with a really nice eye for passing and someone who could fit in with a team where Fox and Bagley could be relied on as scores. A future lineup of Fox, Haliburton, ____, Scottie Barnes, Bagley would be rich with switchability, hustle guys on defense and three high IQ passers. They might still need that #1 threat to take the team from promising to perennial playoff contender but Barnes is the type of weird that works in the modern NBA.
Sanjesh: If Cade Cunningham is off the board, I’m satisfied with any of the wings who could be available. Now the statement I made might change as the college basketball season progresses, but it’s a salivating class. If the Kings end the season feeling comfortable with a Fox-Haliburton-Bagley triumvirate, they can find their future wing with ease.
From jwalker1395
How many minutes can we expect Tyrese, Woodard, Ramsey, DaQuan, and even James to play? I suppose I could throw in Bagley too for that matter.
Tim: I expect Haliburton to be thrown to the fire almost immediately, averaging 18 – 22 minutes per game, with that number increasing as he gets more comfortable in the rotation (or after Buddy Hield is inevitably traded). Woodard and Jeffries feel like spot minutes candidates if someone is hurt or in foul trouble, maybe 6 – 10 minutes per game, but not playing in ever game. I don’t think Ramsey will see the floor much at all. As far as Bagley is concerned, if he’s healthy (I know, I know), he should be in there for 32 – 35 minutes per night. The Kings aren’t winning many games anyway, so they may as well try to discover what they have in Bagley.
Will: I think it’s pretty easy to see that Haliburton is going to take over the bench role that Bogdan Bogdanovic held for much of the past few years, but with an increase in time for Joseph/Fox back court lineups and even GR3 playing minutes at the back SG, as Haliburton adjusts to the NBA schedule. 22-25 minutes sounds about right for him. Everyone else you’ve listed by Bagley are going to be victory cigars or hustle guys that are brought in at some desperate moment to make a point about playing hard and being ready every night. The Kings are going to get blown out a good amount this season and they’re going to eat those minutes. Bagley will probably end up a starter and if healthy can average 33-35 minutes a night, but with Walton and it being a lost season, I’d venture to guess it ends up being more around 29-31 a night.
Sanjesh: Haliburton and Jeffries are the players in that bunch I feel most comfortable about playing immediately. I’m expecting Haliburton plays a semi-imperative role early on, but tempering expectations is also important. Jeffries, as we saw in Orlando, can step right in and pick up the minutes Kent Bazemore abandoned. Woodard, who looks built for the game’s physicality, could receive minutes as both a 3 and 4. Ramsey and James have a tougher path, but could be in for spot minutes here and there if necessary. I could see a reality where James is playing more often than others because of his familiarity with Luke Walton’s system, but we’ll see.
And for Bagley, for his sake, he *needs* to be featuring for at least 28 minutes a game. Walton may need to ease Bagley back in, but Bagley needs significant minutes to display his worth.
From Kangzville
What’s your hottest take heading into the 2020 season?
Tim: I don’t know how hot this take is, but Buddy Hield, Richaun Holmes, and Nemanja Bjelica are all off of the team by the trade deadline, with Buddy being moved within the first month of the season.
Will: I see a lot of light optimism in Kings World about how they aren’t THAT bad and I get that it’s a hedge because of all the veterans that the Kings have on their squad. So I guess my hot take is, the Kings are going to perform worse than most think. Trades or no trades, I think this team is a bottom two team in the West this season and while there’s certain to be a lot of moral victories, I think there is going to be a lot of people looking back on Twitter and other places wondering why they said the Kings weren’t bad enough. Adding to that, I saw all over Kings twitter a ton of people very casually predicting Marvin Bagley being right around a 20-10 guy this year and so I guess it’s a hot take to say, I think we’re going to have to be very patient with Bagley. Between missed developmental time and the lack of confidence and frustration that comes with being beaten on for being constantly injured and even taking into consideration that he’s getting over Coronavirus, I think it’s very easy to see him lose confidence in himself early in the season and spend this whole rushed year trying to climb out of the hole. Expecting a ton of him early is a perfect way to ruin what little joy you might take from this season.
Sanjesh: The Jabari Parker train is picking up steam in camp. That’s a sentence I did not imagine writing at all. You want to get hot? Parker becomes a starter and not because of injuries/possible COVID-19 cases.
From Chent
Any early thoughts of ’21 free agent class and who would you want the Kings to pursue?
Tim: The Kings have about $40 million in expiring contracts heading into the offseason, and I’m also assuming that they’re going to get off of one or both of Buddy Hield’s or Harrison Barnes’ contracts. If they clear one of those and don’t take back any crazy contracts, they’re looking to be in great shape for the summer of 2021. Let’s say they move Buddy Hield. Here are their guaranteed deals on the cap sheet:
| Player | 2021-22 |
| Fox | $28,100,000 |
| Barnes | $20,284,091 |
| Bagley III | $11,312,114 |
| Haliburton | $4,023,600 |
| Joseph | $2,400,000 |
| Woodard | $1,517,981 |
| Ramsey | $1,517,981 |
| Total | $69,155,767 |
After accounting for minimum roster charges, Jeffries’ likely guarantee, and the 20201 first rounder, the Kings are looking at somewhere around $25 – $30 million in cap space. They can do a lot with $25 – $30 million. Okay, now it’s time to actually answer the question!
First and foremost, the Kings should NOT go after veterans to try and push for the playoffs. They should be building young-ish around De’Aaron Fox. Lonzo Ball, Lauri Markkanen, and John Collins are all restricted free agents who I wouldn’t mind throwing an offer sheet. There aren’t too many unrestricted free agents who are particularly attractive outside of maybe Kelly Oubre. If the Kings do walk into the summer of 2021 with a ton of space, I would prefer the to use it to absorb bad contracts for young players and draft assets.
Will: I’m fine with the Kings punting this next off-season in free agency. Sure, they should kick the tires on deals with guys like OG Anunoby and Duncan Robinson but there’s no reason to go out and spend wildly on vets for a team that is rebuilding. I’d even avoid a Markkanen who doesn’t quite fit with Bagley (if he shows himself to be a part of the core). Save your money in 2021, draft well, then in 2022 reach out to a culture setter that won’t break the bank like Marcus Smart, who can take young, hungry, smart guys and have them follow his lead as a defensive guru. If you’re really twisting my arm about a guy in 2021? Go out and grab Boban Marjanovic as a backup center. Why? I love the man and he’s massive.
Sanjesh: I, for one, am pretty excited for next year’s class, considering the class that just passed was parched in quality. As Tim mentioned, Oubre is the most appealing UFA for Sacramento’s young group. But it’s likely Oubre remains a Warrior. What other unrestricted names do I like? Nerlens Noel, Daniel Theis, Gorgui Dieng (don’t overpay him), Dennis Schröder. For restricted names, I like Lonzo Ball, Lauri Markkanen, John Collins, OG Anunoby, Derrick White, Gary Trent Jr., Bruce Brown, Isaac Bonga and Duncan Robinson. I’ll stop there, but it’s a more intriguing class than what we just experienced.
From Marty
A text exchange with my Kings buddy that we’ve probably written dozens of times went, Kings need to completely overhaul their broadcast team. Well, here we are. How are you feeling about things?
Tim: I feel pretty good about the broadcast team. The Kings snagged two highly qualified professionals who will be a huge upgrade over Grant Napear’s nonsense, and Doug Christie continues to grow as an analyst. I probably won’t be watching games on mute now!
Will: I’m very happy with the Kings choices for broadcasting. Mark Jones is a legend and a refreshing choice after the exit stage right of the ol’We answer your questions about the rotation, the upcoming season, the NBA draft, and more! Peach. Draper I haven’t ever heard broadcast but hearing that Doug Christie helped in the selection process eases what little tension I have over it. Obviously I’m bummed that a guy like Jim Kozimor loses his job in a pandemic and obviously having Jerry retire has been a blessing for pretty much only Kings Herald readers and listeners, but I’d say they did a good job of filling in the holes left by others.
Sanjesh: If by broadcast team you mean the NBC crew, I’m happy with the new hires. The Kings desperately needed a new voice in the booth, and they picked up two(!) extremely qualified commentators who will make a good pairing with the great Doug Christie. If you meant about the team going into the season, I’m fine with the roster construction. It looks like a team destined for a high lottery pick, and I’m totally okay with that. I just hope the players stay as safe as possible; that’s my biggest concern.
I keep hearing about Holmes and Bjelica being traded this year but never with any qualifiers or context. Obviously, if we don’t trade them, it clears cap space for next year and we have 2 productive players on the team for this season. Trading them for anything other than young players or draft picks would be criminal. I assume everybody is on this same page but never really hear it expressed.
I’ve got to go now, oatmeal is ready.
I’d like them to keep Holmes and trade Belly. I think at 26 Holmes still fits the timeline and is a fan favorite. Bjelica is also loved but at 32 I’d like him to have a chance with a contender.
I think most everyone like Holmes, but the problem is re-signing him. The Kings are limited to what they can pay him and he may get more than that in the open market. Trading him is the wiser move, IMO.
how was the oatmeal?
Bland and hard to swallow; like most King seasons.
Next question, do people actually think that Luke is a good coach? It seems like I’m the only one commenting on his incompetence. Tim pointed out some third quarter statistics before and I realized he is not passable as a NBA head coach.
I hate to speak for everyone, but the answer is no. This answer may be embellished with loud expletives for emphasis.
You are not the only one commenting on his incompetence. I’d guess most of this board rates him somewhere between Kenny Natt and the Devil.
Huh, I always heard that the devil was clever.
You must never read the comments lol… Nobody thinks Lose Lllluke Alton Walton is a passable NBA head coach.
Even if he has a sharp basketball mind (which I do not see), I believe his lack of sociability and his seemingly mopey presence make him a poor locker room guy. Therefore, I believe he is a bad head coach. I’m hoping for a change come next summer.
The vibe I’m getting is everyone has made peace with the fact he’ll be coach for at least the next season so rather than stare at that mess, let’s all just stare at the new rookie class.
I’m concerned that you feel like you are the only one commenting on his incompetence.
hahahaha
Anyone want to chime in with some support for Luke Alton?
I’m at least willing to give him another season before rendering judgement!
Question for Will: have you seen much of Scottie Barnes or are you basing your opinion on what you’ve read? I watched the last 5 minutes of regulation time and all overtime of his game last night against Indiana. Aside from one good pass to a cutter, all the others were telegraphed. One TO caught in the air and an awful pass, another TO on a bad inbounds pass with 5 seconds left that the ref miscalled out of bounds, two deflected passes. Didn’t see much IQ on offense or defense, apart from making a simple slow play, and certainly nothing like Draymond. No explosiveness, no quickness, lumbering feet, also got swatted once, no pressure on the rim, gave up an easy layup by a simple baseline turn. I mean, looking at those ten minutes, the comp is Dedric Lawson if he insisted on playing point guard, but maybe not as good as Dedric Lawson. Perhaps he loafed around during quarantine but judging from last night’s game he’s not quick enough to guard the wing.
Yeah I didn’t like what I saw from him either. In the same breath who is a finished product at 18 years old?
Any serious set-in-stone evaluations at this point are silly. I didn’t think Barnes looked very good last night, but he’s gotta have at least 5 or so games under his belt before any serious analysis can be done.
That’s actually a good question. Before I talk about anyone in a draft class, I try to do as much research on the individual as I can. Especially this early on, I tend to lean on high school highlights, other writers evaluations and what little I can find from the games I watch and the highlights of the games I don’t. Shit, I’ll even hit Bryant up to hear his opinions on stuff.
That game against Indiana was rough, sure. But tuning in for the last five minutes and an overtime also isn’t much of an evaluation window. The guy played tired at the end of a close game, after almost a year off of basketball and only a few games into his college career? Color me surprised.
Will Scottie Barnes be worth the hype? He’s just as likely to fall as to rise. Will he be a lottery pick? Yeah, probably. Can he ever reach the heights of Lamine Diane in our hearts and draft boards? Magic 8-Ball says ‘Try Again Later’.
Interesting comp: Lamine Diane at pick #52 in the 2020 draft or Scottie Barnes as a top 10 pick in 2021. All it would take is for Barnes to underperform his draft position compared to other available players and I win.
I think we’re already winners with Lamine Diane not going #12 to the Kings.
read again: my comment says 52. Anyway, i thought we were talking about Scottie Barnes. I’m wondering why his play didn’t correspond to anything the pundits said about him, and it’s worthy of discussion.
And my comment says #12 in regards to your previous held belief that you would pick Diane #12.
Obviously draft prognostication isn’t an exact science. The best in the business have hits and misses. What I’ve seen first hand, read from other scouts I trust and from highlights in college and his very early NBA career tells me that the kid could pan out to something special.
His play didn’t pan out in the 5 minutes of the 2nd half and an overtime of watching because 1) it’s early in the season and the kid still has to catch his wind for playing the college game or 2) he’s not very good. The last 10 minutes of one game, a few games into his college career is not indicative of much of anything.
lol
I moved off that statement quickly. Like within 24 hours probably. And I probably did so on the exact same thread, anticipating trolls would go digging for it. I didn’t think it would be someone who is fielding questions from the entire community here, in response to a valid comment about Scottie Barnes. I had a lot of discussion with BHE and ultimately Diane was on my list of second round targets after Naji Marshall, some PGs, and sort of tied with Nate Hinton, so probably in the 52 range or undrafted. Actually Halliburton was a top two player on my board overall since July all the way till draft day. I was saying the Warriors should draft him and didn’t think he’d fall to 12. So … Scottie Barnes. He appeared slow with a lumbering gait. Don’t think anyone disagrees with that.
I just watched a film study of Barnes vs Indiana. Ultimately, I think you’re reading too much into a single game at the beginning of a 19-year-old’s first college season. I don’t think he’s lumbering at all. He’s certainly not an elite explosive athlete, but I’d peg him right around NBA average. But his length and coordination should let his athleticism play up. What he IS is a long-strider. He certainly has plenty to work on. Specifically his footwork and handle need work. His shoot needs a ton of work too, but mostly just of the “getting tons of shots up” variety. Basically:
The Bad:
The Meh:
The Good:
For a freshman playing in his first few games, I think there was plenty there to justify thinking he’s one of the top prospects in the class. I’d say somewhere 7-12 looks about right for him right now based on his flashes and tools. Obviously, all opinions subject to change as we see more.
1
Sidenote: Diane got cut by the Sixers the other day. So he’s available again.
Ha-ha! Call him up! Stockton Kings baby!
If things come together, with Bagley healthy and playing well, the rookies playing good ball early on, and it looks like the Kings have some kind of shot at getting to the play-in game, do you think that McNair will beat Walton about the head and neck to rein things in?
(All of this is predicated on the notion that Walton is capable of not sitting on his own balls, and that his coaching “skills” could lead unexpectedly to a higher win total.)
“Long Balls Luke”
Predictions are all wrong. This is the year we win 40+ games and go to the playoffs because things just break the right way and come together in unexpectedly nice ways. Why? Because the Kings are going to be lucky this year.
I need a pair of these purple tinged glasses. Would be fun if true. That would undoubtedly mean that Fox, Bagley, and Halliburton all made major leaps.
Luck this year would be to draft Cunnigham for next year
the player entering restricted free agency next offseason I’m most interested in is Jonathan Isaac. His injury history (technically not even history since he’s out this season) may make it tricky to agree to an extension this offseason. I’m totally okay with rolling the dice on a max or near max contract on a young guy that could be a legitimate DPOY candidate if he can ever stay healthy. He’d also help solve the positional conundrum the Kings find themselves with their own oft-injured young big man if the Kings were to obtain him. Then they could roll out the all skinny starting 5 of Fox/Halliburton/Z. Williams/Isaac/Bagley next season.
This would be a move I would be in favor of as well. Obviously his injury is concerning but I really like his game and he would be someone who could end up coming to the Kings after the Magic get cold feet in free agency.
This would be my dream scenario as well. Curious if the Magic would match a max contract for him coming off this ACL tear. Isaac has played on team USA with both Fox and Bagley so they could potentially influence his decision. I wouldn’t even mind throwing them a protected future first in a S+T if it came to that. Before the Kings could max Isaac they would need to trade one of Buddy/Barnes.
yeah I probably should’ve mentioned that. The Kings still need to create the space to offer the deal. Then they have to encourage the Magic to not match. And as I said, the Magic still have time to hammer out an extension which would make this all moot. But it’s the type of move I believe McNair is thinking about when he talks about having the flexibility to capitalize when the opportunity presents itself.
Agreed with all of that. How would you feel about offering Collins the max? While Isaac would be preferable, I could definitely see them matching a max deal for him. Collins fit next to Bagley wouldn’t be nearly as good, but it’s still a move I would like to see Monte make (Not that it should factor in, but it’d feel great to steal a restricted free agent back from the hawks).
If the Kings are confident they could get either Isaac/Collins, I could see Monte packaging several future 1sts to move up in the draft (ala Mavericks) to secure the last piece of the core.
The other great thing about going all in on a prospect from this class is that they would be set for a contract extension the same year as Isaac/Collins max ends.
that would really test my theory that your five best guys aren’t always your five starters theory! I think the 2000s Kings conditioned me to believe that Sacramento can only win a championship if they luck into a superstar (thanks for nothing Vlade!), or build the deepest, most complimentary team possible. That’s why I’ve never been all that high on Bagley. He’s that type of player you have to build around, but he’s probably not actually good enough to build around. However, Isaac is kind of the yin to Bagley’s yang though, so the pairing makes sense in theory.
Heck yes, all in. Love the gamble on Isaac.
Could you imagine if a year after Vlade is gone the Kings rotation is Fox, Halliburton, Buddy, “Top 7 2021 (Playmaking) Wing”, Isaac, Bagley, Woodard, Jeffries, Ramsey, Holmes? I’d buy season tickets and I live in Clayton!
100% moving back to Sac for that. Jalen Green please
If you want Isaac, you may be better off trying to trade for him now so WE have the team control. For the sake of conversation Isaac and Bjelica make about the same amount. And Isaac + Fournier = Hield.
That might actually kill two birds with one stone. I’m probably getting into “too good to be true” territory, but the perfect scenario is trading players that would’ve helped the Kings win now for a player that will help them moving forward.
Holy Masthead, Batman!
You guys have a big vertical list of the games through January, all on a purple background.
Script glitch, I guess? Is it a Chrome vs. Firefox thing? (I’m on Chrome, BTW)
Yep, seeing the same on Chrome. I assume this is Brad’s fault.
I had it, did the cache clearing thing, and was fine after that.
If you clear your cache that should resolve the issue. After that you should see the schedule nicely displayed at the top of the site.
loving the new schedule layout
I don’t want to clear my cache, though. Unless it can make fun of you for free, in that case I’ll do so in the next 2 and 1/2 seconds.
Is there a reason why tonight’s game in Portland is not listed?
Ah, now it’s there.
Happy Hanukkah!
Chag sameach!
Thanks for the response fellas. Agree with a lot of your analysis. From my perspective, Joseph, Buddy and Barnes are taking up a lot of minutes from guys I’d rather see play, and a lot of space on the cap sheet. Moving 1-2 of them this trade deadline for young players or picks would be a huge win. Id also personally like to see Holmes long-term. He fits the timeline well enough and is a relentless competitor – you need those guys. Excited to see them in action tomorrow!
When playing around with the ESPN Trade Machine, I came across this issue with Buddy Hield and was wondering if someone could explain it? Unfortunately, I think this limits the amount of salary we can bring back (which may be a positive or negative).
“A player who signs an extension that is to begin the following season has what’s known as a “poison pill” contract. He can no longer be traded for a player making equal money. Instead his current salary is averaged along with the salaries he is to receive in his extension, and that average becomes his incoming salary for trade purposes.”
Therefore, we could only use about 4.86 mill with Buddy to take back contracts? I feel like that math doesn’t make sense. I could be terrible at math haha.
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