For weeks now we’ve discussed the Sacramento Kings’ woes around the three point line, both in their inability to make threes and their inability to defend opponents around the arc. For at least one night we got to see how potent the Kings can be when they do both, as they routed the Utah Jazz to a final score of 141-97. Sure, the Jazz are now 5-18 on the season and this type of win is what you should expect from a team with real playoff aspirations, but far too often the last few years we’ve seen the Kings not taking their “weaker” opponents seriously and paying the price for their hubris. It was great to see the Kings put together a start-to-finish great game and handle an opponent without any unnecessary drama or lapses.
A few thoughts and observations from this one.
The Defense looked a LOT better
I’ll keep adding the caveat that the Jazz are not a winning basketball team, but nonetheless the Kings defense looked really good in this game. Keegan Murray was limited in the first half due to foul troubles, but was playing some really great defense on Lauri Markkanen. The Kings as a team, as a cohesive unit, were playing really solid defense. The team was making good rotations, recovering well onto shooters, and limited the number of open looks the Jazz got. The Kings held the Jazz to 35.7% from 3 and 38.8% overall for the game. The Kings also had 8 blocks and 10 steals in this one, and the flustered Jazz had 20 total turnovers.
Raining Threes
Regression to the mean works both ways, and tonight was a major step towards the Kings ending their slumps from beyond the arc. Kevin Huerter had a fantastic game off the bench, finishing with a team-high 26 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal and 1 block. He shot 6 of 9 from three, and 10 of 14 overall. You could see the shift in Kevin’s game after his first couple threes fell, and he played with a rediscovered confidence that reminded us just how good Huerter is for this team when he’s on.
Doug McDermott got in on the action last in the game. With the game out of reach early in the fourth, Doug McDermott entered the game and had an insane heater. In just 8 minutes of playing time Dougie had 18 points on 7 shots. 0 other stats across the board. Just went out there and made 6 of 7 threes. It was an incredibly fun run to cap off a very fun game for the G1C crowd.
The team as a whole was 22 of 44 from deep.
Resting UP
One number really stands out to me from this game: 31
That’s the number of minutes De’Aaron Fox played in this one, the most of anyone on the team. With 4 Kings averaging over 35 minutes per game, it was great to have a game where the starters could take most of the fourth quarter off. Keegan Murray, due to some early foul trouble and the game being secured so early in the fourth, played just 25 minutes. DeMar DeRozan played 29, Domantas Sabonis played 28, and Malik Monk played 27.
The Kings now get three days off as well. Great news for the surely tired legs of our starters.
Individual Accolades
De’Aaron Fox: 21 points, 9 assists, 4 rebounds, 1 block. A solid outing, but Fox was just 1 of 5 from three and 2 of 4 from the free throw line.
Domantas Sabonis: 19 points, 12 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, 2 of 3 from 3. Really good game from the big guy.
DeMar DeRozan: 18 points, 4 assists, 1 rebound, 1 steal, 1 block. The key for me is that it felt like DeRozan was scoring (mostly) within the flow of the offense in this game.
Malik Monk: 16 points, 3 assists, 2 rebounds, 1 steal. Monk went just 2 for 7 from 3 in this one.
Keon Ellis: 5 points, 5 assists, 3 rebounds, 3 steals. Keon only took three shots, and only played 16 minutes, but had solid contributions across the board while he was in.
Picking Nits
I’m still annoyed by Mike Brown’s rotations, even in such a convincing win.
- Colby Jones played 20 minutes in this game. While that was padded by garbage time, it still involved plenty of early game action. I don’t understand Brown’s insistence on playing him regular rotation minutes right now.
- Orlando Robinson is just too much of an unfinished project. His minutes made more sense in this one as Isaac Jones was out with an illness, and maybe that explains why Robinson played more than Jones in the prior game too, but I view Robinson as little more than a trade chip at this point.
- Jae Crowder, who you may recall was made a starter off the street 7 games ago, received his second straight DNP.
Up Next
The Kings have three days off before visiting the New Orleans Pelicans on Thursday, December 12th at 5 PM PT.
When you hit shots you score more points, allow fewer transition opportunities and spread the floor.
When you spread the floor, you create more chances at the rim and reduce TOs from blitzes. Creating more chances at the rim and reducing TOs leads to more points.
When you allow fewer transition opportunities, you allow fewer open 3s, reduce opp 3FG%, reduce their chances to attack the rim and spread the floor. When you do all that, opponents score fewer points.
In other words, knocking down the three ball solves a considerable amount of the Kings problems on both ends of the floor.
If they can do so consistently for the remainder of the season, they should be just as competitive as we all expected them to be.
Well said J. I think too, with missed three’s often being long rebounds, effectively an outlet pass for a team to get up the floor quickly and take advantage of a defense before it can set up. Having the Kings even be an average 3pt shooting team will solidify them, and they can see who becomes available to either help on the wing or perhaps find a mobile big to come off the bench.
If the Kings are merely average from deep, I’d expect them to be Top 5 in ORTG and Top 15 in DRTG by the end of the season.
If they decide they’re comfortable with Isaac Jones as being their rim runner for the season, then I think just some help for Keegan at the 3-4 would be their last big hole. DFS and Cam Johnson would both be perfect at their respective price points.
If Monte were to somehow land Cam Johnson, I’d want him starting next to Keegan, which would mean bringing DeRozan off the bench. I’d be all for it, but now sure Brown and DeRozan would.
I have had this exact same thought. Based on pure fit, Cam’s shooting and defensive versatility is exactly what the starters need and DRoz’s steady scoring and leadership is exactly what the bench needs.
The other reality is it would like cost the Kings quite a bit to get him. To match is salary the Kings would likely have to add Huerter, filler, and likely a pick to a rebuilding Brooklyn team.
Lyles, Huerter + 1st for Cam is a no-brainer for me. I think the Nets would want two picks, particularly if you’re assuming them to be back end of the 1st round. I’d still do it for two firsts tbh.
Post-trade deadline depth chart:
Fox/Carter
Monk/Ellis
DRoz/Cam
Keegan/I. Jones
Domas/Len
Looks dangerous to me.
It would be an all in move for sure. If the Kings start to hum and the playoffs are looking like a real thing, I could be talked into giving up that much by the deadline.
If they’re going to do an all-in move with Brooklyn, I’d like to see them push for Finney-Smith too. Why stop at one defensive wing?
$$$ doesn’t work for both unless you include DRoz or Monk
I’d actually prefer to get a 4/5 combo player. Day’Ron Sharpe would be the guy I’d want with Cam, especially if the Kings are sending out Lyles.
Huerter, Lyles and 2 firsts for Cam and Sharpe is something I could definitely get behind.
I take my original idea back, yours is better. Good work, Adam.
I like the idea. For Johnson and Sharpe I had a trade a while ago involving Lyles Huerter a first and 2 seconds.
Also included Lyles.
I’m with you on this one Adam. I think a guy with a little size and some ability to be a vertical threat, would work well for this team. I appreciate how Trey gives his all trying to play physically, but he needs another inch or two & 15-20 pounds to be a true 4/5.
It would be an all-in move and it’s made me think about what the Kings goals should be and how they fit into the future landscape of the league.
Right now, it’s looking like Boston’s league for the next 2-4 years. After that, I’d imagine OKC terrorizes everyone for an indefinite amount of time, and after that, I imagine the 7’4″ Death Star in San Antonio becomes fully operational. If that’s the case, then I don’t really see where the Kings sneak in an NBA title. Of course hope springs eternal each season, but realistically it’s hard for me to imagine this team winning within the next 15 years or so.
This is all to say, that if the Kings were to just give me 3-5 years of REALLY good basketball – make a Conference Finals or two – then I’d consider it a major victory and I’d feel happy having paid the price of an “All-In” move, even if it didn’t land the Kings a ring.
I heard on Ham’s podcast that the Kings are 9-2 when Huerter scores 10+ points, and 1-10 when he doesn’t. (1-2 when he has been injured). It is a simple stat, but when they get production from Kevin, the teams tends to win more games. Replacing Kevin with another player who scores and equivalent amount might draw the same conclusions, but for now they have Kevin, and they need him to produce every game.
It shows that the production from Demar, Fox, Monk, and Sabonis has been consistent, and that just ANYONE else chipping in is the difference between winning and losing.
I wonder what the splits are for Keegan. I’m glad that’s he’s turned into a good defender and overall productive player, but I’m really dissapointed in his offensive regression. We’d need to rely on Heuerter’s hot hand less if Keegan was more consistent. 12 ppg ain’t doing it. Hopefully it’s just another slow start.
What exactly do we expect from a guy who is the 5th option on offense with the starters. Fox, Sabonis, DeMar, and Monk are going to take the lion’s share of shots, so if Keegan, as the 5th option, is scoring 12 points per game, I’d say that’s pretty good. Let’s not overlook the fact that he’s also pulling down nearly 8 boards per game.
As an example of the Celtics starting 5, their 5th option is Jrue Holiday, and he’s scoring 12PPG as well. Over at OKC, it’s Lou Dort and he’s averaging just under 10 PPG.
Keegan is averaging 12.6 points,47.3 FG%, 33.3 3P% in wins this season and 11.8 points, 38.4 FG% and 26.0 3P% in losses. Differences in assists, rebounds, etc, are all pretty negligible. He takes about 1 extra shot per game in losses as well, usually a three.
Mavs did well last year at deadline, adding Gafford who starts and PJ who starts this year. Bit haul, little loss.
The only players available are from either tanking teams or those who are considering the tank.
Portland- Grant, Thybulle??, Williams? Lots of injuries in this group.
Washington- Kuzma- hard no
NOP- they still think they are good, so the price for Jones or Murphy is too high. Ingrahm- hard no
Nets are in limbo- need to lose to get better position so C. Johnson and DFS may be available but I bet on a bidding war.
Giving up deep bench is fine. Lyles for an equivalent is ok but Huerter has been shooting well ( for 2 games) Picks? the draft will be good for a couple of years but the Kings picks are late
jwalker has deep faith in D. Cater and I. Jones. Losing both Huerter and Lyles is risky since this is a shallow bench already
I don’t see Brown bringing DeMar off the bench. But Cam would be the backup 3/4 and still get 25 minutes a night. Just take some creativity byt Brown with the rotations.
The Nets would ask for the Mikal Bridges’ package. Would you do it?
Cam Johnson for
Kevin Huerter, Trey Lyles and at least 3 unprotected 1st round picks
No. That price is too much, especially for 3rd or 4th option like Cam, who is also turning 29 in the spring.
no
the Bridges trade was a rip off- NYK got fleeced
Cam nowhere near that potential caliber
I don’t think the price is that high. Hoopshype had anonymous GMs a week ago saying that Johnson might command a future first round pick, singular. I would suspect the Nets are asking for 2 firsts, and the price could come down to 1 as the deadline nears.
I think his injury history lowers the ceiling on his asking price.
Yes to all of that, and playing crappy teams that have injured players makes all of your points more likely to happen. When the Kings show that they can consistently do this against better teams that are healthy, then they would be cooking with fish grease (whatever that means).
Let’s hope the Kings can take this momentum to New Orleans and beat the Pelicans who are without Alvarado, Hawkins, Ingram, Theis (maybe), and Zion. I still think the Kings will struggle against the Pelicans.
They seem headed the right direction. Hopefully. Monk starting helps.
But I’m not sold yet either.
Doing it against good teams is certainly the bar (although the Houston game was quite convincing). However I think there is reason for optimism:
I saw this stat before the Jazz game which showed that Keegan and Huerter were combining for 5 OPEN attempts from deep every game. That’s 5 very good looks that the Kings are generating every game for two (supposedly) lethal shooters, whether or not it’s a good or bad opponent. They were shooting a combined 20.6% on those looks.
If they make their open threes at even a modest rate, then a lot of the Kings losses become wins. If that were the case then the Kings are well within the top 6 seeds and we’re all probably loving life right now. That may not be the case, but it looks like Keegan and KH are finally starting to figure it out.
Combine that with the fact that the Kings avg. point differential and net rating also suggest that they should have more wins at this point, and I feel good that the regression to the mean may be kicking in for this squad.
I saw the net rating and they are definitely a top 8 team in the west. Huge victories against Utah and San Antonio help that rating. They have been close in several games, and a shot here and there would have made the difference. Hopefully they will start hitting them more consistently and we can celebrate by looking at a higher seeding in the West.
The parity of the West also inspires confidence. The Grizzlies and Rockets are #2-3 in the conference and they by no means looked insurmountably better than the Kings in their recent matchups. The only team in the entire conference that I’d definitively bet on beating the Kings in a 7-game series is the Thunder. Everyone else looks very vulnerable in their own ways – either too young, too old, too injured, or not deep enough. Kings need to win a lot of games to recover in the standings, but the good news is that they should be able to win on any given night.
Here’s the crazy thing, they don’t need to win that many games to recover in the standings. They’re 2 games back of the 6th seed, and 3 games back of the 5 seed. They’d need to win a lot of games to make a charge into the top 4, but the Kings are solidly in the mix of the West despite currently sitting in 12th.
The ability to score will carry the team to mediocrity. Good defense and a high shooting percentage added to the basic abilities can equal a run at a playoff series.
I was thinking this too, given that C Jones played more minutes than Keon. Why should that EVER happen? Also, I’m concerned that MB might see Doug McDarnit’s performance as evidence that he needs to play Doug more.
Same. I did think the rotations made a little more sense this game. I think C Jones is getting his sink or swim chance right now. Which is good, I think you have to give a player real, consistent NBA minutes to truly assess them but I’m leaning towards sink right now.
Being guard heavy as a roster, they need to try and find ways to get these guys minutes. Colby came in early and didn’t suck. He tries and puts in solid effort, which is the first step. The team is small overall, and Brown went with that in the 2nd quarter. Play to your strength of being faster and trying to run more. It worked…against Utah. I don’t know if a Fox, Huerter, Ellis, Jones, Robinson lineup would work against many other teams.
IMO right now the 3 best bench players are Huerter, Ellis and Issac Jones. Huerter as a shooter, Ellis as a defender (but can shoot also) and I. Jones as a hustler, rebounder and overall physical player on the court. If this keeps up those are 3 dependable players for the Kings. Next tier would be Lyles and McLaughlin. I don’t know where Robinson goes. Haven’t seen enough of him. Crowder next and McDermoot on the 13th. tier.
IMO C. Jones is at least trending water and if he continues to improve just a little bit he will make a trade chip not by himself but adding with another player or two.
you may be onto something here Jack- showcase Colby for a trade.
Hey murraytant. Good to hear from you. You might have missed another comment a couple days ago. Though you were traded to the Lakers.
I thought Colby has been decent if unspectacular his last couple games. Certainly much better than he was all summer.
He is working hard, playing decent defense.
Comparing him to recent young guys who got a chance and impressed, I saw flashes from Keon and IJ that stood out fairly quickly. Haven’t seen that with CJ yet.
It’s really hard to take much away from player minutes in a game like this, other than maybe the first 1 1/2 quarters. In a blowout, I’d much rather see end of the bench guys just to give the others rest and avoid injuries. It was fun to see Dough go off, and I still think he can provide some limited minutes, but obviously by the time he came in, Utah was barely even pretending to play D. But then again, I can almost never make sense of Brown’s rotation changes.
IMO Keon over C. Jones. C. Jones definitely over McDermott. Huerter 6th. man although when you need defense play Keon. Play Issac Jones same as Lyles although Lyles this year hasn’t shown much. We know what we have as starters and if things continue with the bench Brown should pretty much know who to bring in. PS don’t forget McLaughlin he knows how to play ball.
When Lyles returns, I would like to see him and I. Jones on the floor together. Both have decent size. Lyles can be the perimeter big, Isaac the dirty work rim runner.
This was a good game to get Colby some minutes. Utah isn’t very good, and Colby wasn’t going to hurt the team that much if he was bad out there.
Keon ought to play far more than C. Jones. Maybe last nights blow out gave Brown a chance to play Jones more. IMO he played pretty good especiallylly on defense. I still think there is a player there. Brown should not play McDermott unless like last nights blow out. He just can’t play defense. Robinson does need a lot of work. Now I know why Issac Jones didn’t play last night. I really like the guy and can be a contributor for the Kings. Need to play him more even when Lyles comes back. Overall things are looking better. GO KINGS!
IMO:
Keon should be in the rotation every game, he has earned it. His minutes fluctuations are puzzling.
Isaac Jones, I like what I have seen and want to see much more, still not a for sure player yet but seems headed that way.
Robinson and Colby Jones, I want to see them get some real minutes and a real chance but right now I’m leaning towards thumbs down.
McDermott should only get some spot duty in very specific situations.
I. Jones “under the weather” which means upper respiratory infect, the GI bug or whatever.
Jones was the backup forward. And Keon is one of the back up guards.
Colby really just took over Issac Jones’ and maybe Crowder’s minutes.
Keon though has to take minutes away from Huerter. That is probably not going to happen until Huerter is traded.
Yeah, Colbey really is more of a guard, but Brown has been playing him at the 3 and even 4 last night. It could have just been a matchup thing, but I wouldn’t expect to see Colby get more minutes then Keon very often. Keon was just the odd man out due to a very hot Huerter.
In watching the games this season, I’ve really felt like if we could just make our 3’s at a normal rate, we’d be winning a lot more games. So I went back through all our regular season games this season and calculated how many more or less points we would have scored if we’d shot the league average of 36% on all of our 3pt attempts.
This isn’t super scientific because it doesn’t take into account a lot of other things like how many fewer baskets the other team would have made if we’d made or missed more 3’s, how much making threes would have opened up the paint, who is making the 3’s, etc. But I just wanted a quick stat. If we made our 3’s this season at the average league rate and nothing else changed, how would it affect the scores?
It turns out that four of our losses would have been wins, two of our wins would have been losses, and had one win and one loss turn into ties. So, again, completely nonscientific, we would be 14-11 and tied with the Clippers for sixth place.
I’m not making any huge conclusions from this, I was just curious.
Thanks for the info. Just guesstimating/observing that was about what I was thinking too.
I think that is why this season has been so frustrating, they are close, and the difference between having several more wins is just hitting a decent percentage on open shots
If O.Rob can shoot the three, I’m ok with experimenting with giving him some minutes against opponents the Kings should beat. They desperately need another big,
A big improvement having Monk in the starting lineup is that Fox can go 50% on offense, which lets him go 100% on defense. When Fox is locked in on defense this team is legitimately terrifying.
Kings have a passed a critical test in this 4 game stretch. Hopefully, they retain this confidence against better teams.
Enjoyed reading this article and found it informative. It brought into focus the importance of the defense and shooting. The team has maintained a top ten offensive ranking while losing to weak teams. A fractional improvement of the defense likely turns losses into wins because of the constant scoring. Shooting 40% from three gets this team well above 130 points per game. That is top tier in the NBA.
Hold an opponent, weak or a top contender, below 120 and score more than 120. This team can do that.
Re: Colby, I was definitely also surprised to see him get so much run, but I sometimes get it? There are plenty of times when Colby doesn’t look like an NBA player. But he also does little heads-up things that make him look like a vet, but which fly below the radar. The one that stuck out to me last night was when Fox hit that three at the end of the third quarter, Colby stole the inbound and fired up a shot. He missed it (of course), but it was still a nice pick, and he created a possession and shot attempt out of nothing.
His mistakes are definitely louder than his successes, but if the Kings think the mistakes are just growing pains, I can at least see moments of the upside they think he has.
To be clear on my own view, I’d much rather he be getting these minutes in Stockton or in garbage time. And it especially bothers me when they have him bringing the ball up and running point, because I cannot fathom any reason for that. But there are at least some moments I sort of see what they see in him.
It would be a welcome change to see this team play in this manner on the home floor more often. It would take the atmosphere at G1C to another level, and the result could be an actual home court advantage.
More, please.
I got a fever. And the only prescription, is more threes and cowbell.
I hear tequila helps too.
When does it not?!
I keep hearing about the daunting upcoming schedule but 5-3 rest of December and 8-6 January is absolutely doable.
I’d take the under but it wouldn’t be historic or anything for that to happen.
As a collector of fun quotes, I find this one to be noteworthy.
#freeCrowder
The bench became crowder when Jae arrived.
Whenever I hear heck I think about how someone in middle school told me in nor cal we say “hella” and in so cal they say “hecka”
Does anyone know of this lol
Also fun game it’s nice when the shots go in the basket
I never heard that one. Always felt like religious people would say ‘hecka’ over ‘hella’.
This is what wiki says:
Paralleling the use of the minced oath heck, some people use hecka in place of hella. Younger school children may be required to use this form. Church culture in Northern California also encouraged usage of hecka over hella.
Interesting read on something I never thought about: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hella
Hella is definitely a NorCal thing. I used “hecka” more as a kid because I’d get in trouble if my parents heard me saying hella. Heckuva is a slang that is more in use across the country.
If I read hella I generally can’t get past it and stop reading whatever is being shared, it’s impossible to take an adult seriously.
Hella good, Marty
Hella can go either way in that regard, but anyone older than eleven who bothers to type “lol” is simpleminded beyond help.
Lol, that’s funny.
kids say “hecka” instead of “hella” at school and around parents so as to not push the dreaded cuss-word boundary. (Ex middle school staffer, here, I can attest to its copious usage among 5th and 6th graders in both SoCal and NorCal.)
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