It’s Lottery Day! The NBA Draft Lottery will be held tonight in Chicago, kicking off at 5:00 PM PT.
The Kings odds break down as follows, per Tankathon.
1st – 7.5%
2nd – 7.8%
3rd – 8.1%
4th – 8.5%
7th – 19.7%
8th – 34.1%
9th – 12.9%
10th – 1.3%
While you’re at Tankathon, give the simulator a single spin and let us know in the comments where you landed. Just do a single spin, otherwise you’ll mess up our very scientific process of tracking results via comments.
We’ll have a live thread up for the lottery.
If Chet and Jabari go 1-2, then I’m hoping for a top 2 pick and absolutely mortified by the 3-5 spots. This draft has a lot of guys who are a couple tools away between working out or busting completely and picking high but not high enough for those top two is not an enviable position. The #6 spot is the one where there’s probably least pressure, you can take whoever remains of the BPA, and know you haven’t committed as much money or as significant of a pick to a player that could still end up pretty good.
#7-#20 is a pretty wide tier of interesting players, so I wouldn’t mind trading back if we fall in there. Anyway, here’s my big board through the lottery as of today:
If we were to fall down in the lottery or trade back, then Dieng is probably the guy I’d have my eyes on. Endlessly switchable defender with some playmaking upside. If he could put on 20 lbs and knock down the 3 consistently, he’d be a great pairing with Domas.
No Davis and Daniels on the list?
I got Davis and Daniels at #15 and #17, respectively. They’ll both be rotation guards with high floors but low ceilings imo.
I’m much higher on both Davis and Daniels. I got Daniels currently #7 on my list and Davis at #9.
Would be interesting to see how the draft workouts plays out. If the Kings stay at 7 or 8, I’d have my eyes on Griffin, Murray, Daniels or Davis as the pick. If we jump top 3, I’d hope one of Smith or Chet is available.
I prefer guys with higher ceilings which is with the relatively low position of Davis and Daniels, but I don’t think either guy would be a bad pick. I just think that 5 years from now a guy like Mathurin, Griffin, or Dieng could make it look like a mistake in hindsight.
I don’t see why Davis or Daniels have any lower ceilings than those other guys.
Heck, I’d say Daniels’ positional size, BBIQ, playmaking and touch probably give him one of the higher ceilings in the draft.
Yeah I definitely could be persuaded in moving Daniels up the board. Davis I’m pretty certain will probably end up a journeyman, though.
I’d be willing to take a friendly wager that Davis would end up having a better career than Agbaji. Would even have a better rookie season I might add.
Yeah, I’d certainly take Davis over Agbaji. That said, I think they’re going to be hard to compare because they’ll likely be asked to play such different roles. I think the role for Agbaji will be much narrower and thus expectations will be easier to meet.
Daniels and Roddy are the guys I’d target in the top 8 if someone unexpected does not fall.
David Roddy? Seems like a 2nd round pick to me.
Yeah, I like Roddy, but if he’s your guy, I think you’re looking for a way to move into the late-1st, early-2nd for him. See if you can pick up some other pieces along the way.
Ideally, sure, if it works out that way. I probably still have Daniels over Roddy, and who knows, maybe the Kings land a top 4 pick, and we’ll be looking at a different handful of players.
The only reason people doubt him is his body type. But the irony is, he’s a physical freak. Really strong core and legs, nimble feet, good motor. His IQ and court awareness are higher than most in the draft. He has every pass in the book without sacrificing accuracy for flashiness. 3-level scorer, can knock down 3s off the catch or off the dribble and with range. Deep back of tricks. Advanced moves. Quick decisions. Hard worker. Cool guy. And the Kings need forwards, Kings need floor spacers, Kings need high IQ playmakers. There’s a two hour film session on YouTube. It’s pretty amazing some of the stuff he does. Just stocky, that’s all.
Sharpe being a #4 after not playing at all for a year and never playing against D1 talent. That’s a risky pick. Lots of intriguing players from 6-14, albeit not many potential stars. Maturin seems to have the highest ceiling, and a pretty low floor.
I’m with you, man. One can only speculate as to what Sharpe may be. But if he’s as billed, he’s going to be a high-IQ, playmaking, two-way wing with fluid athleticism and shooting. You take those when they come along.
If we get somewhere in the top 4 or 5 I would try to trade for Hornet’s 13 and 15 and try and get Eason and Agbajii. Defense and shooter.
I’m high on Agbaji, who seems like a plug & play 3&D wing with length and athleticism. Hard to see him not ending up with a role on this Kings team. Eason I’m very low on, and would rather see Dieng or Sochan picked up around mid-lottery.
Agbaji has a lot of holes in his game. IF you can play him only to his strengths, then he can play a role. But those strengths are pretty narrow. For example, he is a good CnS shooter, but REALLY struggles to shoot consistently off movement or the pull-up. He’s also a really poor finisher with the ball and not a passer, so attacking close-outs if he gets run off the 3pt line can be a real adventure.
Honestly, I’m not sure he’s even the best 3-and-D wing prospect from Kansas in this draft.
With Sabonis and Fox, Agbaji wouldn’t need to do anything besides play defense, knock down the C&S three, and make backdoor cuts when they appear. He excels at all of those things. With Fox/Sabonis on the bench, the offense can still run through Davion and DD. I really don’t envision Agbaji needing to touch the ball any longer than it takes him to score it. I see the deficiencies, but I think his weaknesses are masked by the roster whereas his strengths would be hugely complementary.
Even those guys need to have a baseline level of peripheral skills. And I think you’re overstating his defense. He has the physical tools to be a good defender, but he hasn’t really shown a remarkable aptitude for it yet. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a fine prospect, but I think somewhere in the late 1st is the right place for him.
For what it’s worth, based on past draft trades, you could probably get 13, 15 & another asset for #4 or 5.
Give me Jabari over Chet, I prefer that wing versatility in todays game
Kings fans every lottery season and prospect workout.
Shoot, I don’t know how old I’ll be when the Kings are good again. Last time they made the postseason I was a freshman in high school.
Keep this on file, Klam. Just in case:
Still the best HS movie ever made IMO. Yes, I’ve seen Fast Times. That’s wonderful, too. I just love Dazed and Confused more.
Yay!!! Draft lottery day Kings fans!
Jerry looks exactly the same ????
The one and only day of hope per year for every Kings fan! Then hope leads to despair for the remainder.
Obligatory
8th, as expected ☹️
Also 8th, as expected. OKC with the no. 1.
My gut says Detroit will get #1. Back to back years for the first time in 30 years. Orlando did it with Shaq and Webber.
I think there is a drop off after 7th, so of course we’ll get 8th.
Can we really whine like this when we’ve had nothing but good draft fortune for the past 5-6 years? We jumped into the top 3 two years in a row. Then we had Halliburton fall in our laps.
Right. Bad decisions does not equal bad luck.
So long, and thanks for all the fish!
Or do you mean we’re drafting at pick 42?
A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools.
#7
Cheer up fellas. Even if they move up we know they’ll make the wrong move anyway, so there’s no reason to worry about it.
https://imgur.com/gallery/BgQBqly
Kings pick 8th, Orlando gets #1.
Ditto
I have the same gut feeling that I had back in 2017 and 2018 when the Kings jump in the lottery. I believe this time, Kings get the #1 pick for the first time in franchise history.
1989 they had the first pick
1989?
That draft is closer to Eisenhower’s reelection than it is to today.
Be careful young fella
Never Nervous Pervis, baby!
Woooppss never knew the Kings actually got a 1st pick throughout their history. Probably too young to remember.
We also had a year with 4 first round picks!
And you might imagine it didn’t work out so great, still.
Classic KANGZ!
I can remember both of those. I can also remember peaches making a comment during a game I believe it was Pervis, Shintsis and Sampson on the bench in street clothes he called them 21 feet of stiffs.
And with that No. 1 pick the Kings … trade it for James Harden.
One spin and #1 pick. They have us taking Holmgren. I’d go with Smith but be OK with Holmgren.
Let’s grab the #1 pick….
and go with J. Smith………….
Rockets, Kings, and Wizards respective top 3 after one spin. Take that for data!
Oh well.
Cheer up!
#4
TKH watching ping pong balls today…
New York jumped 10 spots when I did the simulator.
Did the Sim Lottery thing and got Sac picking #1 on the first spin this morning!
That said, I fully expect the Kings to pick between 7th and 9th after today.
Did the Sims lottery thing and Andy came out first, second and third.
(Don’t ask me for receipts)
Best give your opinion on the Bengals, Dutchman. It would not be Andy Sims shammockery without it.
I like the Bengals. I hope that last season wasn’t a fluke.
You suck at Andy Sims shammockery.
Me too! And we take Chet, who enjoys a 4 year career as Shawn Bradley-lite, averaging 2.2 pts, and 400 blocks a game.
I do not understand the Holmgren to Bradley comps what-so-ever.
Tall, skinny, white. Blocks lots of shots.
If you ignore all the differences they’re exactly the same.
If this was the early 2000’s or even early 2010’s, I’d be afraid taking Chet.
In today’s NBA where skills and BBIQ are a premium. I think Holmgren can thrive.
Kings picking 9th on first spin
Remember the time we won something?
But then Vlade and Vivek were like:
“Hey Kings fans, what’s your reward for all the suffering you’ve gone through for 16 years?”
I’m not even watching, since it’s usually just me getting mad that the Kings didn’t jump and even madder at seeing who actually did.
I find it scintilating.
Draft sim for me had kings drop to 9.
Sacramento – Where Hope Bobs
This day has been the genesis of so many KanGZ nightmares.
I got 7th.
Ayeee first spin motherfudgers!!
aka Superstar Passover
#9. Tankathon says Jalen Duran
Heyyyyy
I got us the #2 pick on sim.
There is no way we’d screw up a #2 pick.
With the 2nd pick in the 2022 NBA draft, the Sacramento Kings select…
Ben Mathurin from the University of Arizona
That would be a screw up.
It’s the Kings were talking about. There’s always a screw up.
I actually fully expect the Kings to walk away with Mathurin at #7 or 8. That’s my prediction for the draft. Not what I would do, mind you. But it feels like a Monte pick.
I think the #2 pick is likely the easiest decision making placement for the Kings in the draft.
Of the consensus top 10 pick, I feel like Keegan Murray for me looks like a Monte pick. I don’t have that vibe with Mathurin. I could see Davis as the pick if we stick at 7 or 8. It also feels like Davis is the type of player Mike Brown would like to have.
If my gut is right and we once again jump in the top 3, I hope it’s #2 so we can have a chance at either Holmgren or Smith. I’m not sold on Banchero just yet. Probably because of the lack of defense and Duke see (Bagley, Okafor, Jabari Parker).
Oh, I think Murray is absolutely a Monte pick. I just don’t expect him to be on the board when the Kings pick. The only real way I see Murray being a King is if the Kings jump to #4.
Personally, I’m a big fan of Banchero. I don’t think “lack of defense” is accurate. He isn’t a great defender, but he’s adequate on that end. I fully expect him to be an average defender in the NBA. And he’s by far the best creator of those 3.
Too soon. And it will be too soon a decade after Luka has retired.
I’ll be interested in Portland’s draft position. If it lands somewhere in the top 5, I think the Kings have an opportunity for a good trade. Sabonis to Portland for this years first and next years first plus Josh Hart and a salary filler. Perhaps with a little luck and a strategic trade we come out of this draft with Murray and Sharpe or Mathurin although I can’t say I know a lot about Sharpe. Add Koloko with a late first or early second and you’ve got a nice haul and a great young core for the future plus a bunch of future draft capital. Then sit tight and wait for some of the top tier free agents to shake out like Harden and LaVine and there might be some salary dumps to pick up in exchange for more draft capital.
Most of us want a rebuild and to make moves like these, but it’s not happening. They’re in their version of win now mode.
Vivek is trying to make-up for years of bad decisions, with more bad decisions.
Two wrongs don’t make a right, but three rights make a left.
You’re probably right. I’d love to hear how the Kings can build a winning roster when Fox and Sabonis are on max deals and management has no intention of exceeding the salary cap. Add the numbers up. You’d have to get extraordinary lucky with the draft and even at that it would take multiple drafts of extreme luck. You could trade future draft capital and get a little better temporarily but I can’t imagine a scenario that works with the win now strategy. Barnes will be gone after this year and that will create some cap space but then you’ll have to offer Sabonis a max deal and there just not enough cap space to get another impactful player.
The thought exercise is always fun, but I find it really hard to imagine they have any interested at all in trading Sabonis.
I agree but the Kings are going to have to make deals where they get two impactful players for one and then somehow in addition to that get a top end player like a top 15-20 player. The only way I see that happening is through the draft. I’d love to hear a feasible win now plan.
Trade Barnes for Robinson.
Trade Holmes Davis an our 2023 first round pick for Christian Wood
Free agents Divinsenso and Monk.
Draft Murray or Sharpe or if we get lucky and fall 4 or 5 then trade to Hornets at 13 and 15 and draft Tari Eason and and Agbajii.
Fox/Mitchell
Divincenso/Monk
Robinson/Murray or Sharpe
Wood/Lyles
Sabonis/Queta or Koloko
I’m not really sure what you gain from swapping Barnes for Robinson. Slightly better 3-pt shooting, much worse defense, and a longer contract, I guess. Which can be good or bad depending on what you think of Robinson’s deal.
Wood’s skillset makes sense matched with Sabonis. The question is how much you’re going to be able to convince him to play a smaller offensive role and step up his defensive effort level on the Kings. Depending on the price, I’d probably be willing to take that chance, but it is a risk.
I know the FO wouldn’t do it, but a swap of Ayton and Sabonis, any takers?
Or using the first round pick to trade for Ayton or is Ayton/Sabonis just Turner/Sabonis 2.0?
Just seems like you can buy low right now on Ayton. Suns can’t pay everyone.
Someone is going to pay for Ayton. It might not be the Suns, but he’s a very good NBA center.
I think playing with Booker and Paul he doesn’t get the touches. I could see him being 80 percent of Embiid.
Suns will pay Ayton his max contract. If that happens, I’ll want the Kings to take a swing at Cam Johnson. Barnes for Johnson + filler to make the salaries work.
This could well be the better play. I think looking around the league, it’s smart to look beyond the big FA (Ayton, Bridges, etc.) to the guys they may be unsually willing to part with more cheaply because they’re looking to save money for the big signing.
Yup, I can’t see Sarver paying big money to Cam Johnson if they have commit a lot of money to Paul, Booker, Bridges and Ayton. Could be a good time for Monte to take advantage of the situation.
I would do that.
Turner and Ayton seem too similar to try again (esp. at Ayton’s expected price) with Sabonis.
Nah, Sabonis is the better player, still young, and Ayton is about to get well over-paid.
Those are good thoughts and thinking out of the box which the Kings rarely do.
Sabonis is a far better player than Ayton.
Feh. Yesterday SAC went up to #1, today it’s #8.
I blame Rob. My shake wasn’t thick and creamy enough today, and it’s throwing everything off.
That’s right. Blame Rob.
Want another depressing stat? Come on, I know you do. As of this writing, there are 4 teams left in championship race. All 4 teams have captured an NBA championship since the last time the Kings made the playoffs.
#4, OKC/ORL/WAS/SAC/HOU
#4 is a good slot for me. You either take one of the top 3 if they fall, or you take Sharpe. Easy peasy.
Or Murray.
I like Sharpe but I would take Murray first.I mentioned earlier if we would land at $4I would try to trade to the Hornets for 13 and 15. A lot of really good players at those numbers.
Murray’s interesting to me because, for me, the eye-test doesn’t really match the statistical production. Now, the production is SO good that I’m not going to dock him too much. It just makes me a little skeptical.
As for trading down, I don’t think #4 is the place to do it. I think Sharpe and Murray are enough of a distance above the guys in the 13-15 area that you use that you go ahead and take the high level talent. Now, once those guys are off the board and we’re talking about the Mathurin’s, Eason’s, and Davis’s of the world, then I’m looking at trades.
My breakdown basically goes like this (players within tiers in no particular order):
Chet
Smith
Banchero
_________
Sharpe
Murray
_________
(Start looking for trades).
_________
Ivey
Davis
Sochan
Daniels
Griffin
Duren
etc.
Orlando got 1, Detroit 2, Houston 3, and everyone else stayed in their slot. If kings get 1, go get chet. I want chet 1, jabari 2, or a trade down. Those are the only guys I want at the top.
1. OKC
2. Orlando
3. Houston
4. San Antonio
……
8. Sacramento Kings
My one spin landed at #8. I don’t understand why the 7 spot has a higher chance of getting 8.
https://twitter.com/SeanCunningham/status/1526657174637727744?s=20&t=BIyJiUO-JQxQ9A7lARYw74xtJCkaoAUFEZubUGt2kSg
A 29 year old pop star is now assistant GM of the Stockton Kings thanks to nepotism. What a fucking joke.
Now hold on right there, getting to sing at your daddy’s business doesn’t make one a “star”…
OMG…
Wut? No. Today isn’t April 1.
Heh! Wouldn’t surprised me if Aneel would be the assistant GM of the Sacramento Kings next year once Monte is gone. What a fool of an owner
We got #1! We got#1!… oh, that was me on Tankathon.
Ran the sim and Kings got #1, followed by Hou/Por/NO/Orl
I have Smith/Holmgren/Murray as my top 3, next tier is Banchero/Ivey/Duren