With about 10% of the season in the books now, the Kings are sitting squarely in the Western Conference playoff race, but with a lot of season to go. Here’s five quick thoughts on the Kings season to date:
DeMar DeRozan has been better than advertised
Eight games into his Sacramento Kings career and DeMar DeRozan has already won over the city of Sacramento. Most of us thought he was going to be good, but this good? DeRozan is currently leading the Kings in scoring at 25.6 a game and shooting a career-high 52.9% from the field to go along with 4 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.9 steals. He’s also getting to the line 7 times a game and making 87.5% of those shots. What amazes me about DeRozan’s ability to get to the line is he draws so many shooting fouls on his jumpers, and many of those opportunities turn into and-ones, like his amazing four-point play against Miami. His reputation as a clutch scorer was well deserved, as he’s once again among the league leaders in 4th quarter scoring (currently 4th) and is shooting 57.1% in the 4th. Most of these shots are well contested mid-range jumpers, yet they seem to go in effortlessly. Defensively, he’s been better than I thought as well, utilizing great timing to swipe for steals and deflections. The DeRozan experiment is paying dividends already, and he and the team are still just getting used to each other.
Keegan Murray is stepping up yet again
Much of the conversation around the Kings usually revolves around our Big 3 of Domantas Sabonis, De’Aaron Fox and DeMar DeRozan, but Keegan Murray has been invaluable as well. Murray is given the task nightly of guarding the opposing team’s best player, at almost any position except big centers. He’s also still finding a way to contribute offensively with 15.4 points a game, showcasing an improved mid-range and drive game. But he’s also stepped up in a huge way on the glass, where he’s become Sacramento’s second best rebounder at 8.3 a game. A big part of that improvement is on the offensive glass where he’s pulling down 2.9 a game. As Deuce Mason pointed out after yesterday’s game in which Murray notched a team-high 13 rebounds (including 7 offensive), Murray already has 4 double-doubles in 8 games this season, compared to 12 combined in his entire career to date. Murray looks a lot stronger this season, and he’s using that strength effectively on both ends of the floor. Murray also leads the team in Net Rating at +13.3. His impact cannot be understated, and I think the Kings would actually suffer more without him playing than if they were to go without one of Fox or DeRozan for a bit simply because of what he brings on both ends of the floor and the lack of anyone even remotely similar to him on the roster.
The Kings can’t hit threes… and it might not matter
Over Mike Brown’s first two seasons as head coach, the Kings were one of the most prolific three point shooting teams in the NBA, jacking up 37.3 attempts in his first season and then upping that even more last year to 39.3. This season, that number has gone down to 34.3 (21st in the league), while the percentage has dropped all the way to just 32.5% (26th in the league). Yet even so, the Kings possess the 5th best offense in the NBA. How’s that possible in today’s NBA? Well if you make 58.5% of your twos and 84.1% of your Free Throws, that’s going to go a long way to make up for poor outside shooting. Sacramento’s efficiency below the three point line has been incredible to start the season, 2nd best in the league. The Free Throw improvement has also been massive, as the Kings have jumped from dead last in FT% last year to 1st this year, while also seeing an increase in attempts (that’s the DeRozan effect for you). The fact that the offense is this good despite not getting it going from three yet is a great sign, especially when I do think we’ll eventually see the Kings regain their touch from outside at some point. Speaking of, Sacramento’s best three point shooter so far this season has been… Domantas Sabonis, who is making 50% on two attempts a game. Let it fly Domas!
Sacramento’s depth is lacking
While Sacramento’s starters have been phenomenal, they’re also playing a ton of minutes as Mike Brown has not found just cause to trust his bench depth much so far this season. DeRozan, Murray, Fox and Sabonis are all in the top 15 of minutes played per game this season. Even the Knicks and Tom Thibodeau (who is notorious for playing his stars heavy minutes) only have two players in the top 15. Malik Monk leads the bench once again, and he’s been good but not great so far this season, not yet having found his stroke from three (only 30.8% for the season) and only dishing out 2.9 assists a game compared to the 5.1 he had last season. Keon Ellis has done well, particularly defensively, but is only averaging 6.4 points a game. Beyond those two, there hasn’t been much production at all from the bench. Trey Lyles is still shaking off rust after missing most of training camp, and is scoring just 3.5 points a game while shooting an abysmal 27.3% from the field. Alex Len has some nice moments defensively, but can’t provide the same offensive playmaking or scoring that Domantas Sabonis gives. Doug McDermott has seen some early minutes as Brown searched for anyone to try to spark the team, but his minutes have been abysmal defensively. Newcomer Jordan McLaughlin has struggled to fit in and has only taken 6 shots on the season, making one of them. The Kings are missing players that would ostensibly have been rotation players in Orlando Robinson and Devin Carter, but it’s hard to imagine that this won’t be a problem for much of the season barring some roster shakeup.
The real tests are yet to come
It’s been a good start for the Kings, but they’ve also played a relatively soft schedule so far even with all of the travel they’ve already had to do. The only team the Kings have beaten that had an over .500 record at the time is the Miami Heat, and they did so by the skin of their teeth. You could argue that both of their first two games against the Timberwolves and Lakers should have been wins, but they couldn’t find a way to close those out and gave up big runs that proved to be difference makers down the stretch. The Kings have been taking care of business in the games they’re supposed to win though, which is a good sign, especially after last year saw several of those opportunities fall to the wayside. I’ll feel a lot better about this team if they come out of the next week or so still looking good, as their next five games include two games against the Phoenix Suns, a division matchup with the Clippers, a rematch at home against the Timberwolves, and a trip to take on Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs. If the Kings can come out of that five game stretch at 3-2 or better, that will be a very promising sign.
At this point the good teams are going to wait us out. They know we will not play defense. They know six players do all of the scoring. At the end of the season when one or two players are worn down from insane use they will handle us easily. We need Lyles to step it up or be replaced. We need Keon’s defense with an average of 10 to 15 points a game.
Keon might find that?
Lyles might be replaced by another player or Len takes some minutes?
Is there a number you have in mind when you say “6 players do all the scoring”?
I was looking at several of the top teams in the league, and they have around 6 or 7 guys that average 8ish PPG or more. Kings 7th highest PPG player is at 6.4 (Ellis).
The use is overly high right now because the overall depth is fairly weak. Lyles is really the one that needs to improve. He has been a complete blackhole this season.
The number now is six. Sabonis, Keegan, Fox, Derozan, Monk, and Huerter. Keon is on the bubble of becoming number seven. I think to make a deep run we need a solid nine player rotation. If Lyles can figure something we are largely improved.
Sorry, I meant is there a PPG threshold that you want to see a player get to to be counted as a player that can score?
Good question and I have a soft and half ass answer in return. I guess somewhere consistently around 15 if they play 30 minutes or so? Keon and Huerter are almost platooning as a solid scorer with Huerter carrying the bulk of the load.
This team is scoring 118.8 PPG already, good enough for 3rd in the WC, so the nonstop denigration of Keon makes very little sense to me. Keon doesn’t score because he doesn’t shoot (4.1 FGA/gm). When he does shoot, he’s at 51.7% FG shooting so far this year. The percentage is high because he capitalizes on open looks.
Instead of saying he needs to learn how to score, why not come out and say what you really want? How many FGAs per game do you want Keon to take and who should sacrifice their attempts in his favor? I mean, they run plays for Fox and Malik. Should they be running plays for Keon, too?
To your point, Ellis currently has the 2nd highest true shooting percentage on the team, behind only Sabonis. Yes, this can be attributed in part to his low volume (t-7 in FGA per game). But he is well above the team average in both 2 and 3 FG%, and all of this while providing some pretty stellar defensive effort.
Ellis is a legit core rotation player. The depth issue for the Kings is at the 3 and 4. The back court is just fine.
Keon does not need to score at all to have a positive impact. IMO, any points he scores are a bonus. Keon scoring more is right near the bottom of my list of worries.
He shoots a high enough percentage to keep teams honest.
I don’t really want him shooting or scoring more if that is taking shots away from Fox, DDR, Sabonis or Keegan.
Bingo to both you and Rob. There’s no question he’s a core rotation player. I keep seeing him as on the Payton Pritchard trajectory (23/24: 9.6 ppg / 22.3 mpg), who was the sixth leading scorer on last year’s Celtics. Same with Alex Caruso, who had a lot of value to Chicago as a 10.1 ppg / 28.7 mpg player last year.
I am fine with him taking a couple shots a game from some combination of Malik and Fox as long as they’re in the flow and not forced. Keon is a stud as a starter in this lineup or as the 7th man. Just make sure he gets minutes. And for god’s sake man, let’s not DNP-CD him again!
If he can consistently score he should start more often.
This as well.
Keon and Monk are the only legitimate bench contributors on this team. If Keon picks up his scoring he starts.
This.
Who denigrates Keon?
I don’t think anyone needs to sacrifice shots for Keon to get his shots. As he learns to score in the NBA he will shoot more and should shoot more.
Why would anyone in the NBA run plays for Keon?
Keon is on his way to becoming a good basketball player and I am grateful he is here. He is in his second year basically. This is when most NBA players figure out the scoring side of things. Hopefully he does.
I appreciate and enjoy the conversation as well as hearing your thoughts on this team.
I had high hopes for Lyles. I actually thought he should have been starting last year instead of Barnes. The slow start this year has been disappointing, we definitely need him to get back on track.
To make a deep run defense is mandatory so Keon must be part of the rotation more points or not
If he scores more then we win more games. His defense is great but he is one man playing defense on a team built to score.
Hm. I am a bit puzzled by the “they know we will not play defense” comment.
The Kings are 11th in Defensive rating. 6th in steals. Despite the constant refrain of a lack of rim protection, they have the 9th lowest opponent FG% inside of 5ft. They are 3rd in deflections/game. 5th in charges drawn. Despite being “small”, they lead the league in Def Rebound %. 13th in opponents FG%.
That matches the eye test for me, they seem active and effective. Certainly Fox, Keegan, and Keon are playing some terrific man defense, I think this is the best defense I have seen Sabonis play, and Deebo and Kevin are contributing as well.
Also:
6th in steals11th in opponent 2nd chance points3rd in opponent fast break points11th in opponent points in the paint”They know we will not play defense” is a reflexively uttered phrase that has no factual support whatsoever.
Why do the other teams score so much against the Kings?
Which contending NBA team fears the Kings defense?
They have not stopped anyone from scoring. The total score matters not specific parts of the floor. I lust for the day this team plays defense.
About Murray’s numbers –
SSSI and all, but here is the list of Sacramento Kings that have averaged at least 15 and 8 over their Kings careers:
Domas
DMC
C-Webb
He can do better than 15 and 8 easily. That is what is truly great. He is not close to peak Keegan in my opinion.
My targets for him this season were 18/8. If he gets that 3pt shot working just a little bit more, it seems pretty doable for him.
He has the three point shot but I think he will be constrained in that area while playing the four. Not as many opportunities for a three by default.
I think he has a few 20 and 10 seasons in him.
He has been getting many wide open looks and they just aren’t dropping. One or two of them going in each game would make this team much more dangerous.
One or two more is doable.
Peak Keegan is the day he demands the ball because he knows the the man in front of him has no chance of stopping him.
Drew Gooden averaged 12 and 13….so there!
Gooden not so plenty.
My biggest concern right now is the minutes. I don’t know if it’s going to be sustainable over the course of the season. I’d like to see Brown get his rotation sorted out. Frankly it’s rather weird to me that he’s struggling with that considering the team is largely unchanged.
I agree on the minutes being an issue for everyone except for Huerter and Monk. Nobody else has anyone to step up and help. Browns rotation is limited because he has seven to pick from. Nothing else is an option at this point.
Maybe Len gets ten minutes?
I was surprised to see that Fox’s minutes are up only 3% over last year (+1.1 min.), and Sabonis only 2% (+0.8). DeRozan is hilariously down 0.5% (-0.2). Murray is the one with the tangible increase in minutes at 11.6% (+3.9 min.).
And 1 – If there is a place where the bench minutes have shrunk from last year, it’s along the 3-4. Murray, as noted, is picking up an additional 3.9 mpg, and DDR is logging 8.7 mpg more than Harrison Barnes did a year ago, though again, his minutes are right in line with what he logged in Chi last year.
As I noted, this surprised me. But with the exception of Murray, the starters really aren’t playing significantly more than they did a year ago. Certainly on the high end of the mpg that we see played across the league (OKC, for example, has no one over 33 mpg, while the Kings have four guys over 36 mpg). But I don’t recall being concerned over the amount of minutes our core starters played last year, and those numbers aren’t all that different this year.
Roster depth was a problem last year too. Many people have been frustrated with this fundamental flaw that is obvious but has not been addressed in a meaningful way.
I think the addition of DDR has made those minutes a bit easier for Fox and Domas especially. With his ability to isolate, Domas isn’t having to set as many screens with DHO plays, and the wear/tear that so many collisions can have, and likewise, Fox isn’t needing to force his way to the rim nearly as often and take that beating.
I expect the offensive numbers to even out on all levels, so the 3P% will go up a bit, but the 2P% and FT% will likely go down as the season develops.
And if Brown is going to go full Thibodeau and will run our big 4 into the ground, minutes-wise, I see the percentage drop as exhaustion setsa in (never go full Thibodeau!).
MB has responded:
Who else can he play and honestly expect to win?
I’ve seen Slamson throw down some crazy dunks!
He is probably ahead of the Jones crew on the depth chart. Rightfully so.
Hey Hey – check out the name, it’s not LayUpSon.
And watch out for his back to the basket half courter and add that to the end of the game strategies.
Don’t sleep on DDR’s 38% from 3 so far. I think this could be sustainable. With Domas and Fox initiating a lot of the offense Debo will be getting a lot of those open corner looks he’s been hitting so far.
I think shot selection is the key. DeMar has been decent at corner threes for some time, but the overall % is probably a little inflated right now just based on sample size compared to the rest of his career. Players can improve from 3, but it would be surprising at this point. But here’s hoping for that pleasant surprise!
Jason Kidd and Brook Lopez want a word…
(in other words… stranger things have happened)
(being optimistic and agreeable, not argumentative)
The question for me at this point is a mental one. They’ve shown that they can turn it on when they need to (4th Q last night / 3rd Q in Miami). But can they really show that kind of focus for 40+ minutes against good teams? They will absolutely need to if they want to be in the top-6 in the West. I don’t think we’ve seen that so far. Have there been any resounding wire-to-wire wins apart from maybe Utah?
I think the bench is part of the issue, but same ol’ Fox problems is the other part of the issue. If not for DDR we might be in a bad place. DDR was meant to supplement Fox and Sabonis, no? I don’t think that was the plan for him to carry the franchise at 35 yrs old. Hopefully it’s just the finger injury and Fox will be right by December.
Fox has been bad in the 1st quarter, worse in the 2nd quarter, good in the 3rd quarter, and meh in the 4th quarter.
He is starting very slowly in games, which will eventually bite this team in the ass. For him to be the Star/Max player type of guy, the consistency needs to be there, not just when he feels slighted in some sort of way and decides it’s time to start playing better.
Yeah and he’s shown that can make really positive contributions even when his outside shot is not falling (defense, fast break, getting to the line, etc.) but only if he’s engaged. It’s the passivity that gets them in a hole. Last night, he was just having Ellis bring up the ball with that closing lineup, and relegated himself to being the entry pass guy.
The team is lacking a vocal leader. We need a Fox whisperer. They have too many quiet leaders. Has there been any reporting on which player lit the fire at half time in Miami?
I heard it was DeRozan and Sabonis.
Fox whisperer for sure, someone needs to get in his ear before every game.
I noticed Keon bringing the ball up too. I assume it’s because Fox’s finger is jacked up. It is good if Keon can build that skill going forward. Gives them another option.
I like Ellis in the closing lineup (at least for now). Monk has been more out-of-control than usual this year.
You see it sometimes, a guy tries to earn his brand new contract in each game. There are a few guys playing below their typical level of performance. We know these guys, they’re pros, and they’ll get things knocked into shape.
I agree fully. Fox has always had an inconsistent motor. It’s why I hate the ‘fastest player in the league’ comment we hear every single game. Should be ‘fastest player in the league when he feels like it’
I’m not sure I’d call it inconsistent motor. I have no issue with Fox not going full speed all the time. That was actually a key development in his career, he played way too fast as a rookie. When Fox gets mad he locks in at a higher level, and I’d love to see him be able to tap into that on a regular basis. But to me “inconsistent motor” implies he’s not trying sometimes. I feel like Fox is always trying, but isn’t always operating at his absolute highest level. Maybe those are the same thing and I’m splitting hairs, I don’t know.
I think we all know what it looks like when Fox hits the gas. I just see him trotting 1/2 or 3/4 speed a little too often for my taste.
And what makes me say inconsistent motor is because it seems to be a choice, when he gets pissed he stops trotting.
Put another way, how often do we see Sabonis going 1/2 or 3/4 speed? I would say almost never.
Just another comment in another area. Have anyone noticed Queta lately. Last night played 28 minutes scored 14 points and 8 rebounds. Did we lose him to early in his development?
I really would like to have Neemy on the squad right now.
Sure seems like it. Felt like he never got a real chance in Sac
No player not even Domas is moving full speed all the time. Dude’s putting up 24-5-5 , 2 steals and 3.6 deflections. He’s not dogging it.
DUH, of course nobody is going 100% all the time.
There are just times almost every game where Fox is taking it too easy for my taste. Again, why does he speed up so much when he gets pissed? Because now he is not trotting and going full speed. Why does he have to wait until he is pissed to hit the gas?
Agreed. Mad Fox gives crazy work to the opponents. Someone should punch him in the face before every game. The guy would average 40 points.
We should just trade him while he has any value left at all.
Good stuff, Akis.
I fully believe this team is just a solid 3/4 defensive BENCH wing away from making noise. The core is set. There doesn’t need to be an overhaul. Monte needs to find a solid glue veteran that can help float the boat when Keegan sits. Lyles is fine and all at the 4/5, but there really is no other 3/4 combo wing aside from DeRozan…and he’s needs rest as well.
I’ve mentioned the ghost of Jae Crowder, but it seems he’s out of gas. That kind of player is who the Kings need to come in and provide a balanced 12-16 MPG. Monte doesn’t need to swing for the fences, he just needs a solid single for this team to hum.
It’s anyone’s guess who that type of player may be.
I agree.
I think DFS would be ideal, but he would likely want more minutes than that to be happy, and cost a bit. Perhaps Torrey Craig could be had. I wouldn’t mind Kenrich Williams either, but its not like OKC cares about getting anymore draft capital, they have so much it is already devalued to them since they can’t roster that many new players each year.
I mentioned this on another thread, but maybe names like Thybulle, if I remember correctly, you are a fan. Or even a DJJ from the Clips if they have a mediocre couple of months.
Yeah, I do like Thybulle. Very solid defender and average shooter from 3. He is long with his 7′ wingspan, but I don’t think he can play the 4 and rebound like Keegan. I see him more as a 2/3 combo.
PDX does have some interesting prospects (Kris Murray!), but they are likely to want draft capital. If Monte could somehow swing Thybulle and Kris Murray for matching salary some 2nds and a future 1st I’d be all for it.
I mean, Keegan needs a solid backup…so why not his twin??!!
I really like Toumani Camara.
So do I, but PDX isn’t trading him. They value him like the Kings value Keon.
What about Amir Coffey?
I could also go for Ktis Murray.
He’s very underwhelming. Glad we didn’t draft him.
If nothing else, it would give Keegan 12 fouls.
Torrey Craig for Colby Jones works. Craig isn’t flashy, but he could play 10-15 minutes and not be terrible.
Kings have some TPEs, MLE and BAE available, but I think the Kings are hard capped now (?)
Do they have any routes that don’t involve trading players to add to the roster depth?
Do they need to clear some cap somehow to add players?
Or would players need to be included in a trade to bring back a decent bench contributor?
They have about 3M to luxury tax and about 7M to hard cap.
They can also waive McBucket and/or Robinson before January something to create more space.
I have a feeling Monte don’t want to cross the luxury tax. Not because of financial reason but because he wants to preserve the full MLE this upcoming offseason.
Kings looking pretty good right now but I need 20 games to assess this team fully. Love this team and I think we definitely got a little better with DeRoz. I honestly think the last 2 years were identical other than a few injuries at the end of last year making us a little worse record-wise, also defense was a little better and offense a little worse. We seem to have found a nice balance with a more efficient offense this year while maintaining the solid defense.
The problem is that the West is more stacked than ever and also it’s fun to root for a team that’s a winner BUT there’s a difference between at top 1-4 seed contender and a 4-8 seed winning team. This team seems like a 4 seed max which would be great to achieve and win a playoff series would be a good year for us I think. But 5-8 seed and knocked out in the first round actually isn’t that successful or exciting really.
If Sacramento could just add one more veteran player it could really go a long way in not wearing out the starters and serve as a risk-mitigating measure to prevent against further injuries.
Marcus Morris and Robert Covington are still available free agents. Just saying…
I had forgotten about Covington. He may fall into that Jae Crowder crowd of vets who just don’t have it anymore. They may also want more than the vet minimum. I’d wager those guys gets swooped up by contenders when 10 day contracts open up in January
Sorry, jumping in here kind of late. But it’s been fun reading first the article and then the comments. I think we are fine from both an offensive and defensive standpoint overall. Especially, because I also hope that our 3pt shooting will get back to normal as the players adjust to each other. And. also as mentioned, the 3pt% of other teams isn’t that much higher than the league average, the other teams are just taking ay more 3’s.
My biggest concern isn’t more players needing to score more points, it is literally just having enough bench players who can hold serve that we can rest the starters. Ellis is a great example of a bench player who doesn’t need to score a lot. He just needs to come in and make sure that other team doesn’t pull away while he is on the floor. If Trey can shake of the rust that will help a lot. But man, just a one more big who can give us 10-12 minutes of holding down the fort would be huge. Not a star, just a sold bench player. There were a ton of those guys out there that we could afford and I don’t understand why Monte didn’t snag one of them. It’s not like a trade that didn’t go through, or getting massively outbid. We just didn’t move when we needed to.
I honestly believe that Monte will fill that need before the trade deadline, and I don’t think it will need to involve trading a major player.
I think Lyles will get back to doing his usual excellent work off the bench, and sooner rather than later. He’s working on defense and continues to run the floor to get the occasional easy bucket. Trey can shoot, and just like Monk, Fox, and Murray, he’ll get his percentages to look more like the ones from recent seasons.
The bench definitely needs help, but the guys we have can still turn it back into a strength for the team.
The Kings are just one of 11 teams that have an open roster spot, so Monte may be keeping options open when it comes to filling much needed 3/4 depth. He may just be keeping that spot open incase of break glass emergency should an injury hit one his core.
I’d imagine all the GMs are currently evaluating what they have and what they need. Dec. 14th is also the date that most recently signed free agents can be traded. The unofficial trade season begins then.
Can someone please explain why the Kings let Neemias Queta walk away for nothing?
Seems like he’s a budding star with the Celtics.
Never got out of Stockton even though he dominated James Wiseman.
What gives?
He just wasn’t very good when he was here. Queta was decent in Stockton, but still very raw, and wasn’t progressing as one might have hoped.
I’m happy that he’s doing well, but it’s not hard to understand why Sacramento waived him when they did. Don’t you remember? There was a lot of bitching about McNair having too many bigs on the roster.
Badge Legend