Editor’s Note: The following is a reader submission from our friend and longtime community member SPTSJUNKIE. Dating back to our previous home, he shared his annual draft analysis in FanPosts, and we’re happy to share his work this year and continue the tradition.
SPTSJUNKIE’s 2021 NBA Draft Model and Guide
Another year and another lottery pick for our beloved Kings. The downside is perpetual mediocrity. The upside is that we might have the most informed and insightful fanbase when it comes to the NBA draft.
For those of you not familiar with my models or how draft projection models work, the short answer is that it’s letting computers do math that would take me years to look at everything from basic box score stats, advanced metrics (i.e., Box Score Plus Minus), efficiency statistics (i.e., true shooting percentage), scouting variables (do scouts describe a player as a high feel player or having a strong motor), combine measurements, and more to try to figure out what makes a college player more likely to be successful in the NBA and then applying those to this year’s class. Over the years, this has expanded to include NCAA and G-League prospects as well.
Because there are so many ways to approach the problem – I actually do 5 models every year.
- One that uses all players and all metrics
- One that doesn’t use any of the impact metrics (as these tend to be very important, but may hide information as to what skills are important)
- One that looks at individual positions and tries to separate if there are differences in what makes a great PG versus a great SF.
- And two that also incorporate mock draft order (via ESPN) to see if the scouts rankings can make our predictions even better because they see things beyond the numbers
Of course, as I caution every year, these models are great and I learn a lot doing them. But no credible front office or analyst would simply use a model as their draft order. They are simply another tool to combine with what we see on film, our intuition, and outside factors. Really, the models are great to not only understand what players are analytically sound and may project well, but also to re-think some of your preconceived notions and maybe go take a 2nd look at a player the models like or dislike a lot more than your or consensus experts have them ranked.
Finally, remember that models are based on performance data – they can’t tell if a coach badly misused a player, if a school had so much talent that a player’s skills were hidden, or if a team had no shooters and a player was triple teamed on every drive. So these models should serve as a point of discussion versus the final word that serves to shut down the conversation.
With that said, below are links to two different resources that I have put together for fellow Kings Herald readers.
For anyone just wanting to quickly look at the data, here is an easy-to-read Google Sheets version of the outputs of the 5 models, rankings by model, and overall averages.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gYPRmAKHC-76S5bTBjnC5yC6fmm_xSDvwboYNyLJJ5o/edit?usp=sharing
And here is SPTSJUNKIE’s full draft guide with the model, player profiles, Synergy statistics, projections, and my recommended picks for the Kings: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1D2z3VwuobgjJa-tPKl8yftYZY7hoZuw1uVs0W5sb90c/edit?usp=sharing
Enjoy!
I admittedly didn’t read all the explanations, but if Sengun was #1 on every ranking, why would Cade be the only one in the top tier?
I don’t want to speak for him, but I’m guessing it’s based on this:
Greg is 100% correct. These models are good guides for seeing which players do well analytically and if there are certain players where you should go look at the film again, but if I ran an FO, I would never take model outputs and just draft in that order. You really need to combine the data with traditional scouting.
Cade is a stud who has a way of creating sustainable competitive advantages in the NBA and has both a very high floor and very high ceiling. And he did this while being consistently double teamed on a team with very little talent / shooting around him.
Sengun has high upside and I think is a great gamble at 9, but the center position is a bit less important and he has a much lower floor than Cade. His model outputs definitely made me do a double take and are part of the reason he’s my top choice at 9 (assuming no one unexpected drops), but there’s a limit to how much faith you can put into a this exercise. It should not overrule common sense 🙂
Thanks. I always enjoy reading this.
The top MVP candidates were big men this year. Giannis has won MVP as a big man with guard skills. I think the era of the big men is back and Mobley (who may drop to #5), Sengun, and maybe Kai Jones are great ways to get your hands on one before the rest of the league fully recognizes their value.
I noted on the [redacted] forum in the past that I think the death of the big man was a bit overstated. There’s usually only a few truly dominant big men at a time and we hit a stretch where we lost a few due to injuries (D12’s back, Bynum’s knees, arguably even DMC’s ACL) and a few to the league changing and invalidating their lifelong development (perhaps Jah Okafor, Drummond).
So we this this awkward spot where Curry, LeBron, Harden, CP3, Durant, Irving, Westbrook, and the other top wings were all 27-32 and winning in the playoffs. And the best big men during that period (AD, KAT, Embiid, Jokic, Gobert) were all 19-22. So of course the big men lost and then people ran with the narrative that the era of the big man was dead. Now those big men are in their upper 20s and are starting to become big, big problems.
Sure, there still may be an easier threshold for a wing to be elite versus a big man. But that few year gap convinced people of a narrative that I don’t think is entirely true.
Great work, as always. I wonder if anyone wants to go back and chance their votes.
Not a change.
One of my favorite things about the new site is how you can stop people from being able to edit their post by responding to it.
Truly a feature that giveth, but also taketh away.
I’m just going to thank you in advance for once again going nose to the grindstone to create such an amazing resource/reference.
And now, licking my chops, I dive in.
What an incredible amount of work and analysis! There has got to be an NBA front office out there that would appreciate and use this kind of data.
I keep waiting for the day when SPTSJUNKIE or Bryant or Brenden or any of our draft-gurus gets snatched up by an NBA team.
I keep waiting for the the day TKH brings SPTSJUNKIE into the fold of this site and that he won’t have to keep bashing his head into other commenters on this site who know so much less than he does (including me). Little steps. If his analysis is close to on point this looks like it could be a decent draft for the Kings if they don’t Kangz it up too badly.
I have been thinking that either Sengun or Wagner would be great fits for the Kings
and I’m happy to see that either of them rank highly in this well thought out mock that SPTSJUNKIE has grac ved us with.
Thanks for all the work you put into your draft analysis SPTSJUNKIE. I really appreciate it and look forward to it. You’re as welcome as Dalt’s analysis’s were
unless…..you are Dalt.
Thank you for the kind words. And no, I am not Dalt. When I first started doing this model, I actually used to check with Dalt and hold it until he had posted since he had done his for awhile and was part of the inspiration for me wanting to learn. I don’t think his model was done the same way as mine, but his was fantastic and I miss that he eventually stopped doing it.
And yes, I think we are going to get a good prospect in this draft. I think the top 4 is perhaps the best a top 4 has been in a long time, so I really wish we jumped. Beyond that, I think we are in a good position to get a good player with upside. So hard to imagine feeling disappointed coming out of the draft, but we are Kings fans, so I won’t completely discount the possibility that something happens like our pick injures himself walking up to the podium.
Thank you for all the hard work.
Amazing as always.
Thank you for the hard work.
Amazing work! Really good stuff. Was going Moody, Franz, Sengun – in that order, but now and wondering if taking a swing on Sengun is the better play. I’m predicting at least one (and maybe 2) of these 3 will be gone by 9 though.
Cade Cunningham 26th overall?
(Thanks for the hard work)
I know you are kidding, but I’d like to point out he was #6-7 in the model averages and #5-15 elsewhere.
Clearly too low given he’s still my #1 and only player in Tier 1. But the outputs made me take another look at the tape. And he’s certainly not the first consensus number 1 player to come out a little lower after being a team’s entire offense and playing with a target on his back the entire year getting everyone’s focus.
Sometimes, the warning is very real (Wiggins) and sometimes it’s wrong (Tatum – even though he was 3rd pick).
That’s less fun! 🙂
All kidding aside, your annual draft guide and Bryant’s (and now Brenden’s) player profiles are generally the extent of my knowledge of these players prior to the draft. Much appreciated.
I knew my advocating for garuba would pay off somewhere. 😉
Great job, but why don’t I see the leg hair analysis anywhere?
Because then Sengun would have broken the model.
The draft content that comes out of this community rivals any you’ll see on other websites. Great work!
I’ve been leaning Sengun for a while now as he had an elite post game and flashes of being a really good passer. Plus he seems to play hard. Add in the fact that he won MVP of a really tough league at the age of 18 and it seems like a no brainer that he should be a lottery pick. And now I feel good that the stats back me up.
I get the defensive concerns but no one player that the Kings select will fix the defense by themselves. Ideally, you get rid of Bagely and Buddy which will help improve the defense and let Sengun come off the bench for a year or two as he gets accumulated to the league. Then see where he is at defensively in a couple of years.
This is a good point about the team defense. I would also add (and I guess I did in the guide) that we have heard similar concerns with a lot of high skill, highly productive players who were only average run and jump athletes.
Peja, Curry, Harden, Love, Brook Lopez, Sabonis, Lillard, Doncic, etc. – we always hear about defensive concerns. And those aren’t great defensive players, so it’s not completely wrong, but it’s just easier than we seem to think around draft time to become a passable defensive player and solid team defender if you are a high awareness player.
So sure, maybe Sengun gets played off the floor and is another Enes Kanter, but that is rarer than we think except for complete non-athletes. But he’s not a statue. He’s a fairly nimble and athletic player. He’ll have his issues, especially when he is young, but I think his mix of feel, length, and solid movement will allow him to become a passable defender. I mean, last year, Duncan Robinson played 32mpg in the NBA finals and he’s not exactly the best athlete and has had a negative DBPM every season.
Wow great work.. so what I gleaned from this is that it was a mistake to take Bagley, we should have drafted Luka, should have passed on Mclemore, TRob and the Jimmer!
oh shit nvm.. seriously great work!
So you liked the Stauskas pick ?ð
You’re a mensch, SJ. Well done.
Days away from the draft i’m realizing i’m having hopeful feelings and possible disappointment if Sengun is available and we pass. This article and excellent data arent helping that. Thought I was more objective and or disillusioned, but here I am.
Of course there is risk, and bigs being overdrafted is more than a fair caveat. But the production is not only standout as this suggests, it’s being done in the third hardest league in the world while he is younger than near every prominent player in his class. That fact and the positive indicators in part combined with him being a joy to watch i admit im a convert and crossing fingers for Thursday.
I guess its also thinking in what ways I want us to both fail and succeed in the pursuit of. His ceiling outcome is a high IQ facilitator and utter league exception in company of maybe three players currently. And those skills combined with Haliburton’s gifts, the combo could be as effective as it is brilliant to watch. If we miss on a failed attempt to see the rock flying and brilliant reads in the halfcourt I guess im in part ok with that.
As always Junkie, thanks.
Incredible amounts of data and research here, thank you! Though I know the Kings are set on trying to compete, I fall into the school of thought that you need to build a small-market contender slowly through good drafting, development, and coaching. In that case, I like selecting guys who have higher ceilings. Every day that goes by I like Sengun more and more, especially if Holmes leaves this summer. If we’re building a team around two guards – Fox and Hali – we need a powerful post presence to run the PnR, rebound, hurl outlet passes, and knock down the shot as the trailer in transition. Sengun checks all those boxes, and did it at a high-level at a young age. He is the third pillar of playmaking this team might need, and from there you can fill out the forward positions with versatile defenders to support that core (Barnes already being one of them, perhaps #39 or a Bagley/Buddy trade can bring the other).
Wagner and Moody fit extremely nicely as well, but just don’t have the same upside imo. On the other side of the spectrum, you have Ziaire and Kuminga who both may have the potential to be better players, but make me wildly nervous! Draft night is gonna be a wild one!
Really well said. Agree on his ability to be a perfect offensive complement.
Thanks for sharing and all the hard work you put into this- it’s a great read!
I agree with your draft targets, before reading my order of preference was:
Moody, Wagner, Sengun, Jalen, Ziaire for the Kings at 9.
I might be on the Sengun wagon now! But really, happy with any of those 3. And then content with Jalen or Ziaire.
Should not a viable model project about half the draftees wash out, flame out, bust out, which is approximately aligned to historic norms?
By this I would mean the outcome amounts to a non-rotational player within 3-4 years of being drafted, i.e Justin Jackson, Harry Giles, Nik Stauskas.
That is the problem in general with a lot of mock drafts and projections, not referring in specific to Sports Junkie’s, but a useful model with quantitiative and qualitative inputs would seem to be able draw firmer conclusions in BOTH directions, good and bad.
Another way to say this is if an analyst talks excitedly or semi-excitedly about every prospect, which is a lot of to most of what I hear, their praise means nothing.
If a draft analyst says this guy everybody is hyping is not that good, that piques my interest.
Proclaiming every propsect is the latest and the greatest is misaligned with the cold and daunting harshness of the league. Succeeding in the NBA is obviously not easy or everyone would do it!
High end comps and low end comps are cop-outs too. It would be like saying this particular man with his personality, looks, physique and earning potential and miscellaneous attributes can attract somewhere between a wildebeest and a Victorias Secret model. It says nothing.
Donovan shot 42% his last year at Louisville. A purely quantitative model would have been lukewarm on him at best. I saw a future star and said so at the time. Dude just popped off the screen, not unlike Kai Jones. So there is one example, perhaps an outlier, that any model that overweights quantitative data can fail miserably.
If a draft model could not identify Donovan as likely star to superstar, while in the same year identifying Dennis Smith Jr as a fraudulent player, then it is dubious. DSJ was too short, shot creation spotty, personality aloof, lacked leadership and awareness and selflessness needed from the PG spot. The Mavs recognized this and dumped him, and Luka took off.
These are all qualititative variables hard to weight into a model, yet clear to the astute eye and highly determinative.
All this is to say numbers are only as good as the context they are placed in, which is why I think Kai Jones and Isaiah Jackson are severely underrated, and Franz House Plant Wagner is severely overrated.
In the latter case his assist numbers mean nothing. Watch the tape and you will see a lot of these passes are deferential in context of playing with the superior team and teammates. Wagner may rank relatively high on a lot of draft boards partly because he is deemed a passer, a connector. In my mind, his passing ability amounts to diddly squat. But on pure quantitiave perspective, he is a plus.
I notice Ziaiare ranks at the bottom of this model. I would take him in a heartbeat over Moody and Wagner, and suspect our GM will too. And if and when this happens, and when Ziaiare proves himself superior, does not that mean the model is fated for the trash bin? Has the model been proven as a value add, or are we just suppose to grant merit to it?
Inevitably if you introduce a qualititive component to any model, and weight it per your discretion, you don’t have a viable model anymore, you have a subjective viewpoint that is accurate or inaccurate based on the keeness of your perspective.
Aspiring draft gurus or model makers should play this “game”. Who are your 10 first round prospects targeted for stardom, that is, high level starter or star, knowing half of these will underperform, and five players will make it, again aligned approximately with historic trends.
I do not have the data to support this, but in general I would say there are about 5 stars that come out of the First Round every year. So it is fair to ask that a viable model predict the 10 players most likely to become stars with a hit rate of 50%. Simultaneouly, who are your 10 top prospects who will most likely fail, who will be out of the league or end of the bench, also aligning with historic trends, also aspiring to a 50% hit rate.
There are not many draft dudes who will go out on a limb and declare a particular propsect will likely to bust. While I get you do not want cast this doomsday cloud over a guy who is trying to realize his dream, nothing personal, it takes analtyical skill to accurately say “all these analysts who project Player X to be very good do not seem to see what I am seeing, he’s not very good”.
If you can reach this point as an analyst, or as model, then you are onto something.
With this in mind here are 10 guys who I think are NOT very good, at least overrated, and half will be total and complete BUSTS:
Jalen Suggs
Franz Wagner
Moses Moody
Josh Giddy
Scottie Barnes
Shariffe Cooper
Usman Garuba
Isaiah Todd
Jaden Springer
There, that’s 9 guys I don’t think are very good relative to a general consensus. And I think any model or draft analyst who has any wits or cojones about him should be able to make similar declaration. And again, it is not just to be negative for the sake of being a critic, it is because this is the historic nature of the draft. The hype is NOT real.
I enjoyed your opinion and the thoughts regarding potential busts ! Totally, agree on Wagner, Barnes, and Giddey !
Incredible work! I’m still reading through it, but just wanted to thank you for putting this much time and effort into the draft, and featuring it here on TKH.
Thank you Tony, that means a lot.
Really amazing job.
Thanks for the hard work and sharing
Thank you for this as I’m sure it was work! I think I’ve come to the point where I’d be ok with one of Sengun, Moody, or Wagner.
Out of curiosity, have you dug back to any of your prior year models/guides to see how they panned out vs. the actual player performance?
Yes, sort of. I always look back at them and it’s fun and they seem to hold up pretty well. Generally rightish order and identified some steals and busts. But of course also have some misses in both directions.
I do always say that using them as a tool to learn is as important as anything (though of course I strive to make them as good and accurate as possible). So I think I am more proud about how they have helped me do a pretty decent job in my overall evaluation in the write ups as opposed to just does a quantitative model do a perfect job.
Would be interesting to do a scoring of them at some point though. Maybe a task for the rest of the offseason.
Well at least I feel better about Franz now
Comparing this most excellent work to Tankathon, it looks like Villanova’s Jeremiah Robinson (PF) and Western Kentucky’s Charles Bassey (C) would be steals at 39 for the Kings regardless of whether or not they pick up Sengun in the 1st round, and regardless of Bagley’s relevance to the team as well.
If the Kings trade down, LSU’s Cam Thomas (SG) should be on their list, even though he’s a SG…the Marcus Thornton of this year’s draft.
SportsJ,
One Pastrami on dark rye with blue cheese, three diet Coke’s, two cups of nitro coffee balanced by two decaf, a breakfast of half an English muffin with grilled salmon and a slice of Swiss cheese and the greater part of two days prone on the couch with your thorough, well thought out analysis and I am ready for the draft. Excellent, excellent work.
Tomorrow night I will do what I have done every year for the last five years or so. I’ll be in front of the giant screen with your analysis open. When a selection is called by a team I go back and read The Verdict on the player chosen and then look forward to a few players still on the board ahead and do the same. I don’t have ESPN’s analysis open, nor The Athletics, nor Tankathon, nor Bleacher Report, nor USA Today’s, nor¦.
I have yours open, quickly shuffling between players until the next pick. That says it all about my opinion of your yearly NBA analysis. Thank you.
Thank you Houston – realize we don’t see as much of you around here, but have always greatly respected your opinion, so means a lot. Hopefully, we get a good outcome tomorrow.
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