A few weeks ago, friend-of-the-blog Sam Vecenie had an important message for Kings fans:
Feel really good about my podcast take on the Kings tonight while they were losing 85-75 to the Hawks being “don’t panic, Kings fans. Things are fine, they’re good, the Fox/Murray leaps are the most important things happening.”
— Sam Vecenie (@Sam_Vecenie) December 30, 2023
It’s trade season, I get it. The trade deadline is less than a month away. The Kings are on pace for 51 wins, which is really good, but is like having a net worth of $100 million in a world of billionaires. If the Kings want to compete for the biggest prize in the sport they will need to make some moves before February 8.
But… let’s just momentarily take in Sam’s point.
What De’Aaron Fox and Keegan Murray are doing is not normal.
Let’s start with Fox. His improvement shooting the ball is something out an anime main character arc. His unbelievable improvement in volume, efficiency, and confidence was the subject of NBA creator Hoop Venue’s latest post (who is also awesome and definitely deserves your subscription):
This kind of shooting leap is nearly unheard of. Just as an example, we spent years waiting for Tyreke Evans to develop a jumper and finally rise into the NBA’s elite. It never came, because it rarely does. Fox has ascended into rarified air, somebody who can legitimately be envisioned as the best player on a championship team.
And then there’s Keegan Murray. While we all expected Murray to make serious strides offensively after his explosion in last year’s summer league, his defense was a major question mark. In fact, during last year’s playoffs, one of the Warriors’ points of emphasis was hunting Murray on defense, as detailed in this Twitter thread by Golden State of Mind’s Joe Viray:
One thing the Warriors do so well — and something that has helped them win crucial playoff games in the past — is identifying and singling out pressure points and relentlessly attacking them.
The latest pressure point they’ve identified?
Keegan Murray
????THREAD???? pic.twitter.com/VxHnvCtsqz
— Joe Viray (@JoeVirayNBA) April 27, 2023
Fast forward to this season, and the story is completely different. Now when the Kings play the Warriors, Keegan Murray is Steph Curry’s primary defender. Shoutout to Skyler at Kings Film Room:
Keegan Murray drew the Steph Curry assignment on Wednesday night and did about as great of a job as you could ask for. Cannot overstate how impressive his development has been. pic.twitter.com/Ypy0RUPKz2
— Skyler (KFR) (@SacFilmRoom) November 3, 2023
The hunted has become the hunter.
It’s difficult to fathom how Murray has become so much quicker laterally, so much better at navigating screens, and so much smarter using his size and length to harass ballhandlers, all in one summer. Murray’s meteoric leap on defense pops when looking at his defensive advanced stats. Just look at this graph from AlexHoops (who you should also definitely subscribe to!):
Murray is well on his way to becoming one of the game’s best defensive wings, exactly the same kind of player we’ve all been pining about for years.
All this just to circle back to Sam’s point: breathe. This is a marathon. There will be nights the Kings look drunk. Sometimes we will angrily side-eye the team’s roleplayers. There will be missed rotations, blow-bys, and bricked shots that will drive us insane. Breathe. Big picture, this is the important stuff. Fox and Murray’s explosive growth, along with steady improvement from Domantas Sabonis and Malik Monk, have given the Kings a championship ceiling. And while there is plenty of work to be done, this is an enviable starting point.
Go ahead and enjoy that $100 million a bit too.
–“There will be nights the Kings look drunk.”
Or there will be nights that the Kings look sober, because we will be drunk.
It really is stunning that Fox is currently average 39.3% from three on 8.3 attempts per game.
And opposing players just keep going under screens and surrendering that shot.
Thanks for another good article.
The best part…as soon as they start trying to go over screens to challenge Fox’s shot, he’s going to blow by them and attack the rim. He’s become a legit 3 level scorer that’s almost impossible to stop in today’s offense friendly NBA.
We are coming up on the 2 year anniversary of the Sabons/Hali trade. Why is that relevant? Keegan is approaching the same kind of productivity and impact that Hali was before he was traded. Simply put, Keegan is this year’s version of Hali just before he was swapped for Sabonis. That’s how good he is becoming.
Another way to look at it and to sleep easy tonight, had Monte not traded Hali for Sabonis, there is likely little chance the Kings land the #4 pick which turned into Keegan.
My point: Don’t judge that trade as a Sabonis for Hali deal as a simple swap. Not only did it send out Buddy’s deal which allowed for the Huerter trade and the eventual Monk signing…IT ALSO LANDED THE KINGS KEEGAN.
Would anyone here (or in the entire NBA for that matter) trade Sabonis, Keegan, Huerter, and Monk for Hali, Buddy and Mathurin? That’s what it basically boils down to when the butterfly flaps it’s wings.
Team was 20-36 (35.7%) before Domas and 10-16(38.5%) with Domas. We won 1 more game based on the percentages. Don’t think that would affect our draft position at all. So I wouldn’t include Keegan in this at all.
Domas only played in just 15 games for the Kings after the trade and didn’t play in the last 9 games of the 2021-22 season due to injury. You are also not taking into account that loss of Buddy and the addition of Holiday. The trade definitely affected the draft positioning.
I’d put money on the chances of the Kings with Buddy and Hali finishing the season within one game of a Kings team with an injured Sabonis and Holiday as slim to none.
I don’t believe that there is any doubt that if Hali and Fox were still on the team (no trade for Domas) that clearly, the Kings would have used that draft pick to select Jaden Ivey.
and that’s that.
Ivey seems to be rounding into shape rather nicely. He’s got all the tools to be a good defender, is likely good for five or six assists per game with starter’s minutes, and is going to be a hell of a problem when his three-point shooting improves.
I think he’s going to be a lot of fun to watch as he matures, and gets better talent around him.
Your point is taken about Keegan and the Hali/Domas trade. But you can say that about anything so it’s a little naive to say that Keegan is part of the return with the trade, but I get it.
To me the whole who won that trade debate will go on for years until one of the two teams wins a championship. And I’m not being hyperbolic. Hali and Domas are two of the best young players in the game.
Kings had the best offense of all time last year and the Pacers do this year. These are two teams that have a chance to win it all within the next few years. We’ll see what happens.
The correct answer is that the trade was a win-win. Both teams got better. Both players got better. The players around those players got better.
Win-win, championships be damned.
(The preceding is an uninformed opinion – I know nothing.)
I like the way you put this. I think there’s often in the wider public (or at least the wider media) too much emphasis on defining one winner and one loser for every deal. To me it boils down to: Knowing what they know now, would the Kings do the same deal again? Yes –> Therefore the Kings won. Would the Pacers? Yes –> Therefore they won too.
You may be totally right but honestly that’s just too many butterfly wings-flaps for my brain to follow. I basically see it as losing Hali and getting Sabonis and Fox’s leap in return. Even at that simple an analysis, I think it worked out for the Kings.
Good to read/remind. Very fun/exciting future for The Kings with these two.
The improvements of Keegs and Fox means the Kings don’t need stars to finish building their championship contending team. They only need the right roll players. Defenders. Shooters
Our bench is pretty anemic I’d say so yeah we do need some 3 & D players, but if we were to trade and land another star it would put as in contention for the title next year as there’s only just 45 games left to go in this season to build team chemistry with the new guys coming in. I think us making it past the playoffs first round with a trade would be good and if we got out of second round it would be amazing.
As of now this team feels like another first round exit as we lack the size and star power to compete with bigger physical teams like the Pelicans or the Timberwolves who feel like they’re loaded on the starters and bench.
Here’s some of the star players plus defensive player I think we should try to get in no particular order and then try to fill with some better bench players in the summer
Lauri Markkanen & John Collins
Mikal Bridges & Dorian Finney-Smith or Cameron Johnson
Jerami Grant & Matisse Thybulle
Zach LaVine & Alex Caruso
Kyle Kuzma & Alex Caruso
Dejounte Murray & Clint Capela
I would like to add DeAndre Hunter. 6’7 with a 7’2 wingspan, shoots the 3 and would make a nasty pairing defensively with Keegan in the wing.
I didn’t even think of DeAndre Hunter but that would be an amazing get along with Dejounte Murray and I think we’d probably have a better chance at getting them than any shot of Lauri Markkanen & John Collins.
I personally like Kuzma and Caruso. Kuzma can shoot rebound play either 3 or 4 and as of this year plays pretty good defense. Only problem he would have to buyin what the Kings are doing because he would probably be $4 in rotation. I think he would do this to be on a contending team. Has to be a team player. Caruso would be the defensive SG which we need to defend almost anybody 1 through4. Has a great motor and also can score. Catuso wouldn’t be the only player to play defense. Fox and Murray can also contribute. Starters: Fox, Caruso, Murray, Kuzma, Sabonis. Great starting 5. If we couldn’t get Caruso Thybulle would be great at the 2 also.
I tend to agree with a lot of what you are saying here.
Would love any of those players, Hunter included. An athletic 4 that can play D would unleash Domas and Keegan.
Dejounte Murray would be interesting.
His defensive play is down in ATL but maybe that’s the result of playing with Trae.
Fox
Dejounte
Keegan
Hunter
Domas
The trade history is there with atl. And they may be thinking of a semi rebuild.
Not sure what it would take to land both Dejounte and Hunter, but it would be an interesting move.
I’d guess Atlanta is going to hold on to Hunter unless they get a completely lopsided return. He’s already so good, and still has a ton of upside.
DJM is an interesting possibility, too. I think he’d probably post similar numbers to those he’s got in Atlanta, and perhaps bump up his assist numbers with Fox playing off the ball more. .
That’s a speedy backcourt, with a couple of pretty good defenders. As with all, depends on the cost.
It’s great to see.
Next step for Keegan is to be more consistent in shooting, and to be a bit more assertive.
In the draft selection process when dreaming of what type of player U of Iowa’s Keegan Murray could become there was comps to Otto Porter/Michael Porter, Jr (nbadraftnet.net), TJ Warren/D’Ander Hunter (Bleacher Report), Obi Toppin/Pascal Siakam (nbadraftroom.com), Jerami Grant (cbssports.com), Pascal Siakam (sportingnews.com).
Looking at Keegan’s progress over his 113 game career – what comps do you see?
Every player is their own talent, but it’s fun to point out similarities. I see Khris Middleton and even maybe Paul George (he could be his John Ringo). Players who defend very well but can put up some healthy O.
Do you see Keegan as a future All-Star? I ask in the light of pure conjecture.
I have seen Middleton as the comp from the start, the similarities are uncanny.
And I would say he would be an all star like Middleton as well…not perenial, but make a few in his prime.
What is interesting is many of the names above are players that the Kings might be looking to add (Siakam, Hunter, Grant).
Danny Granger.
I take no stock whatsoever in All-Star selections, as it dependent on many factors that have little to do with skill and talent.
Had to pick a Pacer – I shoulda known (though Paul George…)
Demeanor-wise he reminds me a bit of Derrick McKey. 😉
I wanted to point out something I noticed. If you break down wins and losses into different groups by point differential, we learn something interesting:
Kings record in games decided by 0-9: 11-4
Kings record in games decided by 10-19: 9-5
Kings record in games decided by 20+: 3-5.
What’s interesting is that in the last two weeks, the Kings have all of their blowout wins (3-1 in that span) and are 6-2.
The kings have one of the toughest remaining strength of schedules remaining according to tankathon, but I feel like we’re also pretty strong across the board. We can look at the team as being 5th and only one game away from the play in, or we say we’re three games back of first in an Ultra tight West with a record of 3-1 against the teams in first. The pelicans and maybe Clippers are our kryptonite, but we’re running with the lead group in this marathon and I think the Kings aren’t playing their best ball at this point. I’d be shocked if we don’t surge after the deadline when the team knows what the final team is going to look like. It’s grinding to have something hanging over you and when it finally passes it’s doing to be good. I think we push towards 55 wins.
+1 four of the six blowouts we’ve suffered have been on the second night of a back to back. The other two were Boston and the Pelicans which both hurt because they were ugly and at home. But even Boston just got blitzed on national TV on the second of a back to back.
To add to your points, the last two games have been interesting in terms of how (more specifically where) the kings are scoring. Their last two games have come with an extreme increase of points in the paint. I’m enjoying it. Is this simply due to the competition they are facing or is it a shift in team/offensive mentality? When the Kings have lost by 15 – 20 points it’s been significantly tied to their outside shots not falling. It’s possible we are witnessing a shift. Establish scoring in the paint and from there the rest will take care of itself. They’ll be in every game and likely dominating the others.
We could be looking at another game where points in the paint will be an emphasis. From Liberty Ballers:
I expected Jalen Duren to give Sabonis more of a fight. He’s long, athletic, and alters a lot of shots, just being so quick.
Sabonis just moved him out of the way and did what he wanted. When Domas is aggressive from jump, it really opens up what his teammates can do on offense, because he’s such an adept passer.
I think Keegan will make our Big-3, especially next season. This is enough offensive firepower without needing Monk (one of my favorites). If we don’t resign, or we can trade him for defense, we could be really really good next year.
IMO we have to keep Monk. He wants to be HERE for a lot of reasons. He is the spark off the bench. He facilitates really well. He shoots the 3 and can drive to the basket. I can not think of a better 6th man. We have others who we can trade but not Monk.
He is a spark off the bench but also has the 2nd worst defensive numbers of the core rotation, behind only Barnes.
If you can trade him for an elite all-nba defender like Thybulle or Caruso, I think you may have to do it. The Kings don’t have an offense problem, they have a defense problem. Also keep in mind, a better defense leads to a better offense in transition.
Agreed he’s not a good defender, but on that 2nd unit he is the ONLY offensive threat, and he often comes in to light a fire when the starters come out sluggish themselves. The Kings do have a defense problem, but the problem isn’t Monk playing bad defense along with his great offense–it’s guys like Huerter, Barnes, Vez, Duarte, Mitchell, etc., not playing good enough defense to compensate for their anemic offensive contributions. I’ll take “great on offense, bad on defense” over “impotent on offense, mediocre on defense” any day. Just my piping-hot take.
I agree but there are other players on this team that we can trade to get a Caruso or Thybulle. I would use them and keep Monk. He is to valuable to this team. There are only 5 players I would not trade all others I would. IMO the 5 are Fox, Sabonis, Murray, Monk and Lyles.
Fox is a pro, and will give his best regardless, but it’s obvious that he enjoys having Monk around. Monk feels the same way, so I’m hopeful he’d prefer to stay, and perhaps even permit a hometown discount.
And by that, I mean something around $20 mil per year. I think he’s going to have some pretty impressive offers come his way, perhaps 50% higher than that.
If Monk is part of the marked improvement in Fox’s game over the past couple of years, whether that’s through his play, or by making Fox more relaxed and comfortable, that’s a factor worth considering.
It’s not as if Monk isn’t one hell of a ballplayer.
We saw how valuable Monk was in the playoffs last yr, I agree, we need to keep him.
Last year we were near dead last in Defensive Rating, and Curry dropped 50 on us game 7 (making NBA history). This year I think we are only slightly better or similar.
I’m not a cap person, but if can keep Monk and get Defensive rating at 10-15th in the league next year I’m all for it.
Spock is amazing. He’s the real deal and there’s not even two full seasons under his belt. Fox has officially reached super star level with his 3pt shooting. The crazy thing is, I think he’s still getting better. A year or two from now with more NBA wisdom and he’s going to be incredible.
Both Fox and Murray have stepped up theitr defense from last year. Now they have something other than offense.
All that being said, Fox hasn’t looked as explosive since the end of the year . Especially on his drives. He’s at just below 45% from 2 and 34% from 3 (6 attempts) sine Dec. 31, including the 3 point stinker against the Pels. Not sure if he’s injured or what, but if he is, I hope he gets right. He just hasn’t looked as unstoppable as he did earlier in the season when he needs to.
He was playing a ton of minutes early in the season–38+ regularly. In the “old days,” he would typically play in the low- to mid-30s. The team’s offense has been leaning on him too much, probably b/c the expected contributions from Barnes, Huerter, and the new guys (Vez, Duarte, etc) just haven’t materialized. I think he’s tired, worn down, and needs a chance to take his foot off the gas a bit.
Plus the early ankle injury. They can take a while to heal with rest, but he has not had much rest so the injury lingers. I rolled mine pretty bad back in the day, and pitching was a struggle. Fox out here running miles every game too.
Thread jack: Is the -56 of Scoot Henderson during last night’s Blazers game a single game NBA record? Not casting aspersions on the kid. He’s young, the Blazers aren’t good and the Thunder are a buzzsaw. But man, what a shit sandwich it must be for a guy that has likely always seen success through his basketball career get hung with a -56 in 31 floor minutes.
I only know from listening to the Mismatch podcast this morning, but the answer is no: He came one point “short” of the -57 put up by Manny Harris of the Cavs in a game versus the Lakers back in 2011
Great pull – thanks!
Fox taking Murray under his wing has really been huge, I think, for both players.
Spend all summer trying to stay in front of Fox, and anyone else you guard in the league is going to seem sloooooooow. I really think that has a ton to do with KM’s defensive improvement. Hell, if you can stay in front of Fox even half the time, you’re pretty quick!
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