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Consensus is building among top mock drafters that Franz Wagner will be selected by the Kings at #9

The Michigan forward might have some fans in the Kings front office.

The 2021 NBA Draft is set to take place in just 8 days on Thursday, July 29th, 2021. As common sense would suggest, this is when the well-sourced mock drafters tend to get more accurate with their selections.

Sam Vecenie, The Athletic's tremendous draft analyst and mock drafter, dropped a new mock on us Wednesday morning with a notable change at #9 to the Sacramento Kings – Michigan forward, Franz Wagner.

Vecenie is the latest-of-many draft analysts to predict Wagner to Sacramento.

Sports Illustrated's Jeremy Woo dropped a new mock draft of his own on Tuesday, and you guessed it – he also has Franz Wagner going to the Kings at #9.

All the way back on July 2nd, mock draft veteran Chad Ford called Wagner to Sacramento an "inevitability" and has kept Wagner in the #9 slot to the Kings for weeks since that report.

ESPN's lead draft analyst and mock drafter, Jonathan Givony, hasn't updated his mock since June 22nd, but yes, he also has Franz Wagner heading to Sacramento with the 9th overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft.

The only prominent mock drafter who doesn't have Wagner going to the Kings right now is The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor. KOC hasn't update his mock draft since June 25th, but it's worth noting that he has Wagner going one pick before the Kings at #8 to the Orlando Magic, so nobody has Wagner falling past the Kings right now.

There is a lot of false information and smoke-screening going on behind-the-scenes as we rapidly approach draft night, but the consensus building around Wagner to Sacramento is pretty interesting. The above-mentioned draft analysts are following the same general line of thinking here: the Kings need wings, the Kings need defense, and they also believe Monte McNair runs an analytics-driven front office where Wagner checks all of those boxes.

But as Sam Vecenie noted in his mock draft this morning, the Kings are also rumored to be shopping the pick for win-now talent, so nothing is locked in yet with 8 days to go. But at least according to the top mock drafters out there, Wagner is the favorite in Sacramento.

You can read more about Wagner in Brenden Nunes' draft profile.

 

 

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Hobby916
July 21, 2021 10:53 am

“Win now talent”. Heard that before…unless it is a star player, I vote keep the pick and continue building. They don’t need a John Salmons level player to get them to the next level. Get a star with the pick/buddy/Bagley, etc. or simply pick “your guy” at 9.

TheLoKey1
July 21, 2021 12:04 pm
Reply to  Hobby916

Moses Moody strikes me as much more of a “John Salmons”type player than Franz, but I understand you weren’t necessarily comparing Franz to Salmons as players.

There should be a lot of high upside, swing for the fences, type players available at 9 but picking the right one is such a crap shoot and could take years to get anywhere near a productive player. If it really is playoffs or bust next season, Franz might be the best choice here if they don’t trade the pick.

rc50cal
July 21, 2021 12:52 pm
Reply to  TheLoKey1

I read his comment as he’d rather have fresh meat than old fish.

rc50cal
July 21, 2021 12:51 pm
Reply to  Hobby916

I’d win now is a veteran role player or bench gunner, I say pass as well!

ArcoThunder
July 22, 2021 4:15 am
Reply to  Hobby916

This should be the strategy. 100%

but wait for the disappointment because that’s what we continually do. The wrong thing instead of the obvious thing, over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again.

SPTSJUNKIE
July 22, 2021 8:48 am
Reply to  Hobby916

Late to this, but let me basically duplicate my words from the Reddit Kings’ forum: That I hold out hope that Monte is savvy and that “win now” versus building for the future are not always mutually exclusive.

Obviously it would be short sighted to trade the 9th pick for a 34 year old Mike Conley with 1 year left on his deal or a 32 year old Kevin Love even if he was fully healthy.

But last year we got a 28 year old Wright on a reasonable contract for 2nd round picks. That trade I think both made us better last year and likely for the future.

So it’s possible we trade the picks as part of a package for a 25 year old Ben Simmons, for a 26 year old Marcus Smart, or 24 year old Myles Turner. Now the Simmons version you covered by saying “unless we trade for a star,” but even guys like Smart and Turner straddle the line between both winning now and in the future well.

All of those moves would help us “win now” more than 99% of rookies drafted 9 or later. But they would also not be short-sighted moves that leave us worse off over time. They would likely make us better in the long run as well unless we hit an absolute HR at 9. The biggest downside is we lose the cheap, rookie contract. But we would be adding talent above the expected value of the 9th pick.

AmateurNerd
July 22, 2021 1:36 pm
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

This, this, this. Draft picks are consistently overvalued, IMHO. If the goal is to become more competitive in the short term while also building for the future, I would think it is often preferable to trade a pick and acquire a guaranteed “B”-level player in his mid- to late-20s if you are picking mid- to late-lottery, instead of picking a 19-year-old prospect with a “high ceiling” who could just as easily become a fringe rotation piece as he could an All-Star.

RobHessing
July 21, 2021 10:55 am

The King of Franz.

Klam
Nostradumbass 18
Nostradumbass 19
Nostradumbass 18
Nostradumbass 19
July 21, 2021 11:28 am
Reply to  RobHessing

comment image

richie88
July 21, 2021 3:12 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

.

Last edited 14 days ago by richie88
richie88
July 21, 2021 3:15 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

It’s good to be the King.

DB6C3341-26DC-410E-9630-BCC87741559E.gif
1951
July 21, 2021 10:58 am

How good is his second jump though?

RobHessing
July 21, 2021 11:00 am
Reply to  1951

Does his dad have a Twitter account?

Greg
Admin
July 21, 2021 2:04 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

asking the real questions

itsjabby
July 21, 2021 11:01 am

Does he cut his own steak?

rockbottom
July 21, 2021 11:31 am

Bucks won a NBA Championship with two guys picked 15 and 39 ! 9 should be a sure thing like Dirk ! Problem solved !

NickS
July 21, 2021 11:39 am

Just stopping by to say Congratulations to Justin Jackson, NBA Champion !!

TerzoM
July 21, 2021 11:44 am
Reply to  NickS

Wonder how Bogi feels. Maybe ATL next year wins it

rc50cal
July 21, 2021 12:52 pm
Reply to  TerzoM

I bet he’s thrilled he’s no longer in basketball he’ll.

Carl
July 21, 2021 2:09 pm
Reply to  NickS

Kaminski went from being cut by a bad team where he would have been buried on the bench to key minutes in Game 6 of the NBA Finals. That was a damned good break for him!

Last edited 14 days ago by Carl
TheGrantNapear
July 21, 2021 2:41 pm
Reply to  Carl

The Tank looked good out there. Would have preferred him as a backup big over Whiteside. Heck, Portis showed out these playoffs, I remember commenters last offseason wanting to sign him. But of course, we go with retreads like Whiteside who provide no upside.

NorCalKingsFan
July 22, 2021 1:20 pm
Reply to  TheGrantNapear

Frank looked below avg at best, he was just a 7footer on the court. Way too slow on defense and he didn’t spread the floor on offense.

TerzoM
July 21, 2021 11:40 am

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BasketballHella
July 21, 2021 11:54 am

I know this is just emotion and not based in hard facts. But I just get Stauskas vibes off this guy. Don’t know if it’s the Michigan thing or what. But I just get overhyped basic skills in college then getting throttled in the NBA type arch here.

fiveswords
July 21, 2021 12:39 pm

don’t think that’s the Michigan thing. I think it’s the skin color thing.

BasketballHella
July 21, 2021 1:31 pm
Reply to  fiveswords

Yeah no, but thanks there chief.

Carl
July 21, 2021 2:11 pm

Him being Native American has nothing to do with this! 😉

BasketballHella
July 21, 2021 2:20 pm
Reply to  Carl

Hahaha

andy_sims
July 21, 2021 2:02 pm

There hasn’t been an above-average NBA player out of Michigan since Chris Webber. Maybe Robert Traylor for a couple of seasons, but it’s mostly Stiff City.

BasketballHella
July 21, 2021 2:20 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

Thanks Andy that is definitely the more eloquent version of what I was trying to say. Also I didn’t mean actual talent just the draft hype surrounding them.

Just read some of Nik’s vs Wagner’s draft analysis. It’s the selling me on the guys pro’s then listing some of those same things as his cons.

It seems like in the last couple of years draft analysts have banked more on what these guys could be vs what they are and then setting the accurate ceilings.

Yet another reason why I love listening to and reading Vecenie’s stuff. Guy has an uncanny ability to see thru the bullshit.

murraytant
July 21, 2021 2:58 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

You don’t think that the duds Jordan Poole is not the next Vinnie Johnson?

andy_sims
July 21, 2021 3:37 pm
Reply to  murraytant

If the guards there stay healthy, Poole will be lucky to get ten minutes per game, and could rack up some DNPs. He could definitely be a good rotational player under good circumstances.

murraytant
July 21, 2021 5:52 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

I was being sarcastic. Poole is indeed from Michigan and did show some scoring ability in second year but, as you say, with more players at guard, there are only so many minutes. I think he was somewhat like E. Pascall – lots of empty point calories- points on bad team.

SneakerKing
July 21, 2021 3:47 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

Jamal Crawford has something to say to you.

SneakerKing
July 21, 2021 3:59 pm
Reply to  SneakerKing

As does Caris Levert.

murraytant
July 21, 2021 5:53 pm
Reply to  SneakerKing

good player- bad kidney ( but gone through luck)

andy_sims
July 21, 2021 4:25 pm
Reply to  SneakerKing

Bring it, you bastards.

I hope Levert can stay healthy, he absolutely has promise. Plus, I used to hang out with one of his aunts in college, and it’s a great family.

Otis
July 21, 2021 4:29 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

LOL, I went through the list too. Really, only Levert and Crawford stand out. That’s a pretty ugly group of players.

But, similar to Duke, their guys can’t play in the NBA until they can. Things change, and one guy could change it. Not sure I’d hold Michigan’s recent NBA history against Wagner.

andy_sims
July 21, 2021 11:19 pm
Reply to  Otis

I can shift these ad hominem attacks against Wagner from that school with the terrible football team, to World War II. It’s easy!

Hobby916
July 21, 2021 6:07 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

Tim Hardaway Jr.?

Kingsguru21
July 21, 2021 8:29 pm
Reply to  Hobby916

Is that pro or anti Michigan?

Hobby916
July 23, 2021 8:50 am
Reply to  Kingsguru21

Unclear.

Want2win
July 22, 2021 12:49 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

Jamaal Crawford

aplumley
July 21, 2021 5:41 pm

It isn’t their games. Because their games don’t resemble each other’s at all. Stauskas was sniper in college that had defensive weaknesses. More of a one skill guy. Wagner is a utility knife who may end up being a jack of all trades and master of none type guy. But there is nothing about Wagner that reminds me of Stauskas other than they are both from Michigan and both white.

OG_Aggie
July 21, 2021 12:04 pm

I wish they’d trade the pick for win later talent. OKC for Zaire and Kai if they are there. But I guess the pressure to get swept in the first round is too great.

Mike120
July 21, 2021 5:04 pm
Reply to  OG_Aggie

That’s exactly what I’d like to see. Spot on.

Kosta
July 21, 2021 12:13 pm

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GFunkClassic
July 21, 2021 6:49 pm
Reply to  Kosta

This Franz is too puny to be pumped up about. ya

Noemal916
July 21, 2021 12:18 pm

Please, pass on Wagner. Didn’t watch much of Michigan last year, but he looked awful against UCLA and didn’t play well during March Madness. I don’t think he got what it takes to play in the NBA to be honest. Low ceiling, stretch four that lacks athleticism, he is a bench player at best. I would rather have the Kings select a player with higher upside. This pick has Nik Stauskas 2.0 written all over it.

WizsSox
July 21, 2021 1:46 pm
Reply to  Noemal916

but he looked awful against UCLA and didn’t play well during March Madness

To be fair, in the first 3 games of the tournament he averaged 12/9/4 shooting 48% from the field. But if one bad game makes or breaks the scouting report, then so be it.

andy_sims
July 21, 2021 3:38 pm
Reply to  WizsSox

Small Sample Size bias is a two-way street.

WizsSox
July 22, 2021 8:56 am
Reply to  andy_sims

Well when the three games practically mirror the stats from the whole season, it’s kinda more confirmation than outlier.

Last edited 13 days ago by WizsSox
richie88
July 21, 2021 3:37 pm
Reply to  Noemal916

He was awful against UCLA, but he was good in the other tourney games. Moody was much worse in the tourney.

Want2win
July 21, 2021 12:40 pm

Yup I’m in the Wagner camp! Good defender, well rounded BBIQ,

rc50cal
July 21, 2021 12:50 pm

Didn’t watch much of his him in college, but I like what I read in the profiles about Wagner. Like certain contributors to this website, I’d lean defensive difference maker.

RAP87
July 21, 2021 1:37 pm

I hope the consensus are wrong for the Kings. I’m okay with Wagner, but not at #9.

SexyNapear
July 21, 2021 1:46 pm

Get the Turkish kid.

July 21, 2021 2:23 pm
Reply to  SexyNapear

Sengun or Bust!

andy_sims
July 21, 2021 1:59 pm

I suppose the question is, who is likely to still be there at nine that would be a better choice than Wagner? I’m thinking Moody, but there could be others.

murraytant
July 21, 2021 3:07 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

While I believe Sengun is going to Orlando to pair with S. Barnes at #5, if he falls to #9, take him. If, by chance, Kuminga falls, I would take him over Sengun.
If they are both gone, it may come down to Wagner, Moody and Bouknight. Bouknight is smaller, has poor TS%. Moody is longer but not too good on the move. So, I go Wagner- a bit of RoCo.
Trade Buddy to Pacers for #13, move 13 to OKC ( they want to consolidate) for 16 and 18, take Jones and Williams
It is nice to be the GM where I can do anything I want.

andy_sims
July 21, 2021 3:38 pm
Reply to  murraytant

Roger Corman?

richie88
July 21, 2021 3:43 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

Robert Covington.

andy_sims
July 21, 2021 4:26 pm
Reply to  richie88

He’s very good!

MyNeighborTurturro
July 22, 2021 11:03 am
Reply to  andy_sims

Tough crowd. Maybe they all need to go watch Death Race 2000 or Chopping Mall.

Socalpurplecurse
July 21, 2021 7:18 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

Only have about 6 players above him for us in order in our range
1) Sengun
2) Kai Jones
3) Moses Moody
4) Bouknight
5)Ziare Williams
6) Davion Mitchell

Carl
July 21, 2021 2:14 pm

If they don’t trade the pick, I truly will not understand what they’re doing. They refused to move guys at the deadline and refused to tank. Holding the pick given those circumstances makes absolutely no sense to me.

The only thing I could think is that the front office would be so enamored of their own ability to get a Halliburton every year that they don’t think they need to deal it to get better. Or maybe they believe that the plus/minus for the starters last season was real (doubtful) and adding some bench players makes this a playoff team (nope).

Last edited 14 days ago by Carl
WizsSox
July 21, 2021 2:43 pm
Reply to  Carl

I dunno. I think Barnes was the only obvious moveable piece that would get a real return back. What if Monte generally likes Barnes and doesn’t see him as easily replaceable? He’s only 29 and theoretically everyone is looking for those big multi faceted wings. Not impossible he is on this team for 4-5 years.
Debatable whether Buddy is a positive or negative asset, so who knows to what degree he is moveable (million times debated on here) and I still don’t think you are getting anything of value for 30 games of Holmes at last deadline beyond a couple seconds or non interesting young player.
I don’t feel not making moves with core players last deadline prohibits them from making this pick in a development timeline sense.

Last edited 14 days ago by WizsSox
Otis
July 21, 2021 2:49 pm
Reply to  WizsSox

I’m not sure Buddy was moveable, in any way that would help the team longterm. But I think some of the pushback on McNair’s lack of activity at the deadline was due to the team’s rumored desire to push for the play-in game…which means either Vivek influenced him or he’s not super bright.

Last edited 14 days ago by Otis
WizsSox
July 21, 2021 4:00 pm
Reply to  Otis

Fair on pushback. I just don’t know how much of that is good reporting or just “Vivek is gonna Vivek” hypothesizing. I’m sure quality reporters at some point said they are looking at play in, but without some quotes or people on record (maybe I missed), I am not sure what to make of it. Largely because Monte’s actions to me didn’t scream trying to make play in. Got a couple reserves that could improve bench beyond the current season (Wright and at least having Davis’s rights to match). Gave up nothing of consequence asset wise, unless you consider the cap space for Holmes the big value piece given up. Which is OK to consider.

I get frustration in that nothing substantial either way was done, appeasing nobody in the process maybe. But if the deals aren’t there, then they aren’t there. None of us have any clue if they were or not.

If they had gone after Vucevic or did something like the Bulls did, then I think it’s pretty obvious what the intent was in regards to making a play for play in. Since they didn’t and no one overtly said they were going to, hard to get too pissed at Monte and the deals from my end.

Last edited 14 days ago by WizsSox
Otis
July 21, 2021 4:09 pm
Reply to  WizsSox

I guess it’s all a matter of reading the tea leaves. Early on, Barnes was rumored to be a hot commodity on the FA market, and that wasn’t just local reporting. Then seemingly overnight he was off the market completely.

With Holmes, it’s hard to tell. Seems that as an expiring deal, he could have brought back a little something from a contender. Then Monte could choose to make a run at him in the offseason, if he liked.

And if those reserves could improve the bench beyond the current season, wouldn’t they improve the bench for a play-in run?

WizsSox
July 21, 2021 4:15 pm
Reply to  Otis

Oh for sure they would in short term. Not mutually exclusive. I just don’t know if I would categorize it as, they were dying to make the play in, that they mortgaged future moves/non moves. Which some on here kind of make it seem like occurred (tone wise) when they discuss the Kings were idiots for “pushing for the play in”.

I say this knowing its entirely possible Vivek told Monte not to sell at deadline…personally I have liked Monte’s approach thus far so sans evidence of the play in push, I am looking for more moves before I start to really evaluate Monte’s tenure. As if he cares : )

Last edited 14 days ago by WizsSox
Otis
July 21, 2021 4:26 pm
Reply to  WizsSox

I think the idea was that they thought they had enough “as-is” to make the play-in game, so they pulled those guys off the market.

WizsSox
July 21, 2021 4:40 pm
Reply to  Otis

Namely Barnes. Yeah, reasonable hypothesis that’s what happened. Do they get one of those back to back Memphis games or that big Spurs game with Fox and Haliburton playing?

Low goals, but not an unreasonable prediction by the FO.

Very interested to see how the next 3 weeks turn out.

Last edited 14 days ago by WizsSox
Otis
July 21, 2021 4:47 pm
Reply to  WizsSox

I’d argue that they were wrong to care about it, maybe not wrong that it would work?

On the other hand, the team had a better record and better NetRating this season without Fox and Haliburton. They could have ended up even further out.

WizsSox
July 21, 2021 4:59 pm
Reply to  Otis

Yeah missing 3 OKC games for both at end of year prolly furthers that record (mainly) and splits more than what it actually is.

Carl
July 21, 2021 5:34 pm
Reply to  WizsSox

I can’t agree on Monte’s approach. I’m not even sure what it is or if it’s “value buying,” how that’s going to improve this team. The reasons they stood pat (possibly trying to make the play-in?) might make the situation worse, but the lack of activity is bad enough on a below average, largely hopeless team, without having to know the reasons why.

Monte could certainly still salvage this, but a nothing offseason just leads to another wasted year. I don’t expect that. I expect absolutely everything is on the table, and then we can at least evaluate the quality of those moves, as opposed to evaluating a lack of doing anything.

Otis
July 21, 2021 5:49 pm
Reply to  Carl

Honestly, I still have no idea what Monte’s team building philosophy is at this point, outside of “maintain flexibility”. Hopefully, this offseason will shed some light.

murraytant
July 21, 2021 6:01 pm
Reply to  Otis

value buying is good but Wright’s deal negatively effected Holmes possibilities and the flexibility seems less

Otis
July 21, 2021 6:07 pm
Reply to  murraytant

Yeah, I feel like we are receiving mixed messages.

WizsSox
July 21, 2021 6:28 pm
Reply to  Carl

Don’t disagree on the second half of that Carl. At this point Monte is 10 months in with one abbreviated offseason and a deadline. I think he is a net positive, evaluating on what’s been done thus far, but it’s for sure wait and see mode. If this next offseason comes and goes with mainly just a rookie add (Unless he hits HR again) and we get to next deadline looking like a repeat of last year, I will have more questions than answers probably.

Last edited 14 days ago by WizsSox
murraytant
July 21, 2021 6:00 pm
Reply to  Otis

Holmes will be very difficult to re-sign. Will take either a big concession on his part or significant Kings movement on the trade front.

murraytant
July 21, 2021 5:59 pm
Reply to  WizsSox

trade deadline followed Kings win streak- lots of streaks and that may have effected hold tight strategy. I hope it was not Vivek.
Buddy does have some value to right team. Barnes has more but will not get an equal return.

WizsSox
July 21, 2021 6:24 pm
Reply to  murraytant

Yeah I think you may be right on Buddy. I just think on this website we haven’t been able to pin it down with any consensus so seems like a real wildcard.

Carl
July 21, 2021 5:12 pm
Reply to  WizsSox

This is less about whether they should have moved guys and them not moving guys at the deadline. If you’re trying to win now, then sure, you don’t move those guys. It also means you deal the pick.

If you’re trying to rebuild, you start moving those guys, and keep the pick.

They’ve pretty clearly chosen the first, which is why it makes zero sense to me to hold on to the pick, **given their actions so far indicate that they’re trying to win now.** Holding your vets and your mid lottery picks is no strategy at all, in my opinion.

As far as moving Holmes for a couple of seconds, it’s:

  1. Better than losing him for nothing, which seems fairly likely.
  2. Improves the team’s draft position.
Last edited 14 days ago by Carl
WizsSox
July 21, 2021 5:42 pm
Reply to  Carl

What is the 9th pick (Bagley or Buddy salary filler) getting you? I mean we don’t have the answers, but is it a needle mover and guaranteeing you a playoff spot based on current roster? I am not positive. Even if it is, I don’t think not making the move last spring means they are hell bent on the 8th seed this year and will sacrifice the future to get it.

I guess I just didn’t see much wrong with finessing the edges at the deadline and staying in play in contention/8 seed this past year, while also helping to build out the bench for this season possibly, while giving up pretty minimal assets (Depending on your view on Holmes and his necessity future success)

I get that the play in/8th seed is not a great goal for a team. But I do think the idea of playing some type of meaningful games down the stretch has some value, especially for a team that is not all out tanking in the future. Without Holmes, that was toast. Is that worth a couple second rounders? Prolly varies a lot by individual. They at least had meaningful games for most of the remainder of the season, unfortunately Fox and Hali didn’t get to play in some of them down the stretch.

I don’t think moving Holmes improves your draft position all that much. The top 6 were pretty set by then I think. It was going to be a race between Raps, Kings Pels, Bulls etc. They came out in middle of that. I’ve said this a few times, if there is even a 25% chance that Holmes gets retained for the 4-47 offer then I think that’s worth bypassing for a second or two. There’s real value in him on that type of deal vs the likely value that come from those picks, which historically is not a 25% hit rate to get a player of Holmes caliber.

If they were to really tank and trade Barnes, Hield, Holmes at deadline and then sit Fox for a decent chunk down the stretch (Ala Shai), then sure maybe they could have gotten into that top 5-6. I get the argument if that’s the direction someone wanted to go.

Last edited 14 days ago by WizsSox
Carl
July 21, 2021 10:05 pm
Reply to  WizsSox

What is the 9th pick (Bagley or Buddy salary filler) getting you? I mean we don’t have the answers, but is it a needle mover and guaranteeing you a playoff spot based on current roster?

Probably not. I’m not arguing this is a *good* strategy, but I think it’s the only strategy that makes sense, given their actions.

I guess I just didn’t see much wrong with finessing the edges at the deadline and staying in play in contention/8 seed this past year,

Yeah, I can see your position if you thought the team was a legit playoff contender. I absolutely never thought they were in any sort of contention, so their actions made no sense to me.

They at least had meaningful games for most of the remainder of the season

I see your point, and maybe I’ve watched this team too long, but I didn’t think any of the games were meaningful. I feel like if they had gotten into tenth place, it’s because the guy in front of them tripped on his shoelaces, and not because they were fast enough to beat him in a race. And even if they were that good, 10th out of 15 is not even close to good.

if there is even a 25% chance that Holmes gets retained for the 4-47 offer then I think that’s worth bypassing for a second or two.

Just a difference in perspective, I think. I see this as pretty black and white. If you retain the Holmes, you made the right move by holding him. If you lose him for nothing, you wasted an asset. If there’s a 75% chance he’s gone, get the asset. But again, I never thought they were in any sort of contention anyway, so that informs what I think they should have done with Holmes.

Last edited 14 days ago by Carl
BasketballHella
July 21, 2021 2:49 pm
Reply to  Carl

This is where I’m at. They literally have left themselves no room with anything. I can’t remember a time the Kangz were as boxed in as they are on all fronts.

Which is why my feeling is now that they are just gonna add the pick and run it back.

I think keeping and signing Holmes after dumping Bagley is gonna be sold as “the move” of the offseason.

If they lose out on Holmes though then I’m going to be patiently waiting with the popcorn to see the freak out move that will inevitably come too late.

murraytant
July 21, 2021 3:11 pm

it is going to be tough to re-sign Holmes. May come down to have to trade Buddy for zero and renounce Davis, in order to get a chance at Holmes

andy_sims
July 21, 2021 3:43 pm

Since Bagley can’t be “dumped”, as it won’t help the cap situation to pay him to go away, that won’t be a factor. If he’s able to be moved to free up some space, you take a good look at that.

As far as Holmes goes, as much as I love his play, I don’t know that I’d want to go much higher than what Sacramento can currently afford. Someone will probably throw something in the neighborhood of 4/$60 million, and I’d be disinclined to match it, barring a sign & trade scenario.

Carl
July 21, 2021 5:19 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

And if Holmes is worth $15 million, he had value at the deadline that was pissed away because _____________.

SBKangz
July 21, 2021 6:48 pm
Reply to  Carl

Because who would have given up those assets for Holmes? And if you want to try to get him to sign a deal with you next season making him and his family pack up in the middle of the pandemic and move (players generally hate being traded) isn’t a wise choice. I think Monte wants to keep Holmes and trading him for garbage was viewed as not worth the risk of pissing him off.

You’ve got an anti Monte bias and that’s fine. He’s certainly not done anything that set the world on fire. But the kings are in a dumpster fire and very limited on moves (outside of a full tank)…that’s not his fault. Playing the long game and waiting for better deals for Barnes/buddy could make sense. It might not and we can judge him later but you can’t say at this point it was the wrong call. There was no desperate overpay at the deadline this year. We got a little stronger with Wright and Davis.

Carl
July 22, 2021 5:36 pm
Reply to  SBKangz

I have an anti-incompetence bias. McNair has been passive so far. I’m rooting for him to actually improve this team. Time will tell if he’s up to the task. But I’m not going to wait around with him doing nothing for years on end withholding judgement. This team made zero improvement from last season to this, didn’t make any significant moves in the offseason (aside from a very good draft pick) or the deadline and kept the coach, where 4 or 5 actual playoff teams changed theirs. McNair’s job is to improve the team. So improve the team!

Kingsguru21
July 21, 2021 9:03 pm
Reply to  Carl

And if Holmes is worth $15 million, he had value at the deadline that was pissed away because _____________.

I don’t understand what one has to do with the other. One value is in the FA market, the other is with less than a half season and EBR rights the same as what the Kings have this offseason.

I don’t get it. What did the Kings lose by holding onto Richaun Holmes exactly?

Carl
July 21, 2021 10:11 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

I don’t understand what one has to do with the other.

If a guy is worth $15 million as a free agent, he has trade value, even for a half season rental. Am I wrong?

I don’t get it. What did the Kings lose by holding onto Richaun Holmes exactly?

Whatever they could have dealt Holmes for at the deadline. They got Delon Wright for the ghost of Corey Joseph. At minimum Holmes was worth a second. Second round pick > nothing.

Last edited 14 days ago by Carl
Kingsguru21
July 21, 2021 10:35 pm
Reply to  Carl

Yeah, you’re wrong. FA value and deadline value are different things.

It wasn’t just Cory Joseph, either. It was also 2nd rounders. Although I’ve never had an issue with that deal from the beginning.

outrider
July 22, 2021 10:52 am
Reply to  Kingsguru21

Question for you. If we don’t extend the QO to Bagley, that makes him a UFA and if we do that makes him an RFA? Is that how that works?

Kingsguru21
July 22, 2021 1:06 pm
Reply to  outrider

If we don’t extend the QO to Bagley, that makes him a UFA and if we do that makes him an RFA? Is that how that works?

If you are looking ahead to the summer of 2022, then yes. Bagley already has a contract for the 21-22 season, that option was picked up last December (as all rookie scale contracts were).

1st round picks operate under a different set of rules. Their contracts are already negotiated during the CBA negotiations between the NBPA and the league. That includes when the options years are picked. ALL option years on rookie scale contracts are picked up a year prior to the season. For example, Tyrese Haliburton’s 3rd year option will be picked up this October (as per usual) because the Kings have to pick it up a year prior to it kicking in. And Tyrese as we all know is a 1st round pick.

One other point about the QO and the UFA. No matter what, whoever ends the season with Bagley, provided he isn’t waived, will end up with full Bird Rights and the right to offer the QO to Bagley. There’s not much chance of Bagley taking that QO unless he just really wants to be an UFA and he can’t come into agreement with the team that offers him the QO. That’s a very rare scenario, it hasn’t happened too often recently and I can’t remember the last time it happened with a 1st round pick (Ben Gordon comes to mind in 2008).

Hope this helps a little Outrider!

outrider
July 22, 2021 2:32 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

Yeah, i was just speaking generally in terms of the mechanics of the QO/RFA/UFA process, but that would be in 2022.

Your explanation did help, so thanks!

Last edited 13 days ago by outrider
Carl
July 22, 2021 11:36 am
Reply to  Kingsguru21

So Holmes wasn’t even worth one second round pick? He literally had no value at all at the deadline?

Kingsguru21
July 22, 2021 12:59 pm
Reply to  Carl

So Holmes wasn’t even worth one second round pick? He literally had no value at all at the deadline?

I don’t see the point of seeking out “value” rather than lose Holmes for nothing. You’re not losing Holmes for nothing. But trading him for a 2nd round pick that has little value on it’s own seems a poor way to utilize assets to me. Getting something for a player like Holmes is more about optics than actual assets IMO. Your scenario is a perfect example of that.

Yes, I’d rather Holmes walk for nothing than trade him preemptively at the deadline. Just because there are suitors (which we knew) and the Kings may not be able to offer the same contract to Holmes that other teams are doesn’t mean holding onto Holmes is a mistake. You see it that way. I don’t.

I think the chance of resigning Holmes using his EBR’s is far more valuable to the Kings than trading him for a 2nd rounder. There just isn’t much incentive for other teams to give up other than marginal value. Marginal value does nothing for the Kings. Let me put it this way: I’d rather the Kings take a shot at resigning a valuable, but limited, player at fair market value than give up without taking a real shot at it. This team has a long history of poor value to contract in part because those making the decisions didn’t really understand how to do so.

If you get a slam dunk deal you move Holmes. But at the money Holmes was making and the fact Sacramento was likely (and should be) asking a lot to move Holmes tells me they think there’s a better than whatever shot you think the Kings have at resigning Holmes using his EBR’s. I don’t think the trade value was easy for other teams to deal with given how little Holmes was making and how much the Kings were going to ask to deal him. That’s a tougher deal to line up than maybe some realize. And why would you give Richaun Holmes away? (That’s what teams wanted.) To me you’re giving Holmes away for a 2nd round pick.

IMO, this is what having an actual professional who belongs sitting in that chair looks like. Tough decisions are tough. And this was a tough decision. Maybe Monte goes 0-2, it happens. But this was a difficult needle to thread as it always has been, and if it doesn’t get pulled off hopefully it will be because of factors beyond Monte’s control.

Put another way, and hopefully the last paragraph, I’d rather the Kings try to resign Holmes and whiff than move heaven on earth to pay him 15 million a year. Let another team do that. There are other valuable role players than Richaun Holmes. There’s no need to panic if he’s playing for another team next season. There are alternatives there.

What concerns me is if there isn’t money to improve the roster. But I’m hoping there is money to invest in the now so that this team has actual chance at success. We’ll see.

andy_sims
July 21, 2021 11:22 pm
Reply to  Carl

Maybe teams weren’t so hot on acquiring a rental and facing a huge payout at the end of it.

Next time, leave a larger blank.

Otis
July 22, 2021 8:37 am
Reply to  andy_sims

I don’t think anyone believes we would have gotten back a king’s ransom for him at the deadline.

But if he’s good enough for the team to attempt to re-sign in the $10+ million range, he should be good enough to have gotten something back at the deadline.

Ultimately, maybe he’s just not that good.

andy_sims
July 22, 2021 1:03 pm
Reply to  Otis

There’s a whole lot of range between where $10 million starts, and where that plus sign ends. Of course you resign him at around ten million if possible. Who is disputing that?

Otis
July 22, 2021 1:08 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

I feel like even $10m annually is a bit of an overpay, but I don’t doubt some team will give him that annually.

Carl
July 22, 2021 11:37 am
Reply to  andy_sims

Your position is that Richaun Holmes had absolutely no value at the deadline?

andy_sims
July 22, 2021 1:05 pm
Reply to  Carl

And your position is that something of value was offered in return? I’m reading that you consider a second-round pick to be fair return, but I disagree, and shockingly, so do a lot of other people.

Tell me with a straight face that had McNair dumped Holmes for a second-rounder that you wouldn’t still be talking about what a moron he is.

Kingsguru21
July 22, 2021 4:48 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

Tell me with a straight face that had McNair dumped Holmes for a second-rounder that you wouldn’t still be talking about what a moron he is.

Co signed.

BasketballHella
July 21, 2021 8:54 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

Dumped as in traded for a second rounder.

andy_sims
July 21, 2021 3:39 pm
Reply to  Carl

“refused” lulz

Mike120
July 21, 2021 4:59 pm

Visions of “Nik rocks!” keep popping in my head. Kings can’t afford to not get starting level talent with that pick.

Last edited 14 days ago by Mike120
TheGrantNapear
July 21, 2021 6:29 pm
Reply to  Mike120

🤙

kings4ever
July 21, 2021 5:05 pm

We are not drafting this limp-lillied house plant. He sucks. He is a career backup.

Do you know that Ziaire projects to be better than Wagner in every facet of the game?

Ziaire can peak around 22/5/5/2/1 by my projections. He’s that good. I studied him closely and he has zero fundamental defeciencies. And if he truly is close to 6’10, watch out. He’s not unlike Fox as a rookie in that he’s a plus athlete with quickness, size, fundamentals, yet lacking in shot consistency and strength vs physicality, just like 1st year Fox.

This is the type of guy you want to bet on; fundamentals and athletic profile are impressive, where you see a clear path (to stardom) with development in the weight room and shot refinement. You are betting on variabes that tend to have favorable outcome versus betting on some fundamentally defecient wannabe (Barnes, Kuminga) or a shooter cannot create a shot for himself (Moody, Wagner)

Ziaire is switchable onto guards too whereas the house plant will get dusted by guards.

You would have to believe our GM is a complete utter moron to draft Wagner or Moody over Williams, and he is not a complete and utter moron.

I noticed Isiaiah Jackson, aka the Unicorn, was added to Tony’s list of prospects in SAC.

Ah yes, it is coming together nicely, isn’t it? 🙂

And you know who I did not notice on this list? The house plant!

Ziaiare has a beautiful textbook arc on his shot and does a splendid job getting to space, with his length and side steps and step backs and high release point. The house plant has NO such ability. You think our GM does not notice this? He didn’t even bring Wagner to town yet, his name has probably already been crossed off the list, HA-HA!

Don’t call us, we’ll call you!

Ziaiare was NOT good driving to the hoop, admittedly, but this can be remedied when he adds 10-15 lbs of muscle so he does not get bumped off his lane. This will give him another means by which to create space for his perfect arcing shot. Wagner who is suppose to be well developed physically, allegedly, did NOT use his size advantage with many weak flailing attempts over length. Sad!

Wagner is more likely to have a psychological block too, lack of self belief, based on the hesitation you seem him engage in when left open. You do not just go from wavering confidence to elite confidence, from beta to alpha. It rarely happens. And using FT% in college as a predictor of perimeter shooting in the pros is a crock, something the mock nerds seem to like, because the correlation coeffecient does not factor for the 90% FT shooters in college who wash out in the pros and are removed from the data pool.

Unless I missed something, the only team ahead of SAC who had Ziaire in for a workout was GSW. They could take him, but more likely they will take Bouknight, and Curry will put him “under his wing”. Mitchell is also a possibility but Bouknight is the leading candidate there.

So there is about a 70-80% chance Ziaire will be around at pick #9, then the odds we take him are about 70-80% too. Then there is Alperen and Jackson who could also sneak there way in with a dazzling workout. Meanwhile the house plant waits by the phone waiting for it to ring.

HongKongKingsFan
July 21, 2021 5:35 pm
Reply to  kings4ever

Don’t you think Ziaire is way too light in weight ?

And he somehow looks small, as his frame is not that big……..

I doubt he would be bullied by others in day 1.

andy_sims
July 21, 2021 11:26 pm

Some teenagers are skinny, that’s all. Yes, even in the United States.

TheGrantNapear
July 21, 2021 6:31 pm
Reply to  kings4ever

ZW>Wagner

WizsSox
July 21, 2021 8:49 pm
Reply to  kings4ever

I don’t even know what to say to this post…but if we get Wagner, he officially must be called “House Plant”. I can see the local Green Acres commercial already.

“I’m a Plant Guy”

Last edited 14 days ago by WizsSox
andy_sims
July 21, 2021 11:23 pm
Reply to  kings4ever

I would also prefer ZW if both are available.

ScottyPop
July 22, 2021 8:53 am
Reply to  kings4ever

I can’t believe I’m saying this or that I read one of K4E’s entire posts, but I agree with this take.

I’d rather ZW or Jalen Johnson over Wagner. Both seem to have considerably more upside. This would seem like a “safe” pick for me. Meh.

Bryant
Member
July 22, 2021 8:57 am
Reply to  kings4ever

I’m glad that Ziaire got moved from the Moron Monte to the McGenius list.

While I will have Franz a spot higher than Williams, I would be extremely excited for Ziaire and agree his ceiling is higher than Wagner.

NorCalKingsFan
July 21, 2021 5:24 pm

Anybody but Wagner. I don’t want Sengun either, but I’d much prefer him to Wagner. I watched Wagner for the past two years and all I see is career backup at best.

HongKongKingsFan
July 21, 2021 5:38 pm

Heard Magic might be interested in Sengun, while Raptors might take S. Barnes at 4….(like P-Will last year)

I like those pick by the above teams….the more players jump...the higher chance we can get Kuminga at 9th !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

murraytant
July 21, 2021 6:08 pm

Barnes goes at 5. Bouknight at 6 to OKC. duds have choice- young guy who will be worse than Oubre to start his career ( Kuminga) vs. trade or Mitchell. Then Sengun to Orlando and a chance at Kuminga at 9. a slim chance

RAP87
July 22, 2021 1:20 pm

Slim chance Kuminga slides to us but crazy things have happened before!

Bitgod
July 21, 2021 5:47 pm

I hope they make a new video of Vivek going around asking Franz? Franz?

HongKongKingsFan
July 21, 2021 5:56 pm
Reply to  Bitgod

comment image

Vivek: “Are you ready? 1, 2, 3, Franz Rocks !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

TheGrantNapear
July 21, 2021 6:32 pm

Lol 🤙 Vivek is such a douche

eddie41
July 21, 2021 6:55 pm

Mock drafts are cute.

andy_sims
July 22, 2021 1:08 pm