Chainmail: Talking rotations, Keegan’s ceiling, and much, much more!

Welcome back to Chainmail! We had a ton of great questions this week, so let’s dive right in, shall we?

From andy_sims:

I was also wondering about the concern regarding Fox and Sabonis not being staggered. If we had no bench guys who were capable distributors, I could see it. From what we saw last year, the two played very well together. Is staggering them to keep the offense moving actually necessary?

Tim: I think it’ll take a little while until we find out how much Fox/Sabonis need to be staggered versus paired up. Obviously, they’re the two best players on the team and having them on the floor together gives the Kings their best chance of winning against other lineups, but Sacramento, while deeper, also doesn’t have many options outside of those two who can carry an offensive load, unless Keegan Murray continues to flourish as he’s shown. I’ll give Mike Brown a quarter of the season to figure things out before declaring what’s needed in that regard.

Will: I think that if we are to believe the Kings when they say they’re gunning for a playoff spot, we have to also believe that they believe they have enough talent to make staggering Fox and Sabonis a little less than absolutely necessary. Sure, it’s a good idea to have at least one of those guys on the floor alot, maybe even as much as possible, but Monte and Co. have made moves for a couple seasons now in the hopes of increasing the talent level and lightening the load on the main guys now. Haliburton (and later Sabonis) and Davion Mitchell were both talent picks that should lighten the load for Fox. Barnes, who was brought in to help Fox way-back-when with the scoring load, now has rookie Keegan Murray to help him on night’s he pulls the invisible man act. The acquisition of guys like Huerter and Monk should, in theory,  help give Fox some breathing room. Now, Sabonis is another question altogether. Outside of Neemias Queta flourishing into a young Jokic, there is no replacing his rebounding, scoring, screen-setting and passing when he steps out, but the Kings have to believe Richaun Holmes can produce minute-to-minute like he was prior to last season’s disaster. Will it happen? Lord knows. But, unlike the absolutely pure delusion of last season, I can squint now and see the theory and logic behind believing they could pull a cohesive team together when Fox and Sabonis sit.

From Kosta:

Is it possible that there is a lot more tanking this season for Wembanyama and Scoot, and if so, could this help the Kings get into the playoffs?

Tim: Scoot and Victor both looked like potential generational talents in their face-off the other night, so yes, I imagine tanking might be the worst it’s ever been in the 2022-2023 season. However, I don’t think it will help the Kings all that much. The Jazz already blew things up, the Spurs are clearly trying to lose, the Thunder may never win again, and the Rockets aren’t good enough to make any noise in the play-in tournament. That was all already settled before those amazing performances.

It’s likely that eleven teams will be competing for the ten postseason spots available in the Western Conference, with the Kings, Lakers, and Blazers my most likely candidates to land in the 11th slot. The only way I can see the tank wars helping the Kings is if one of the other wannabe contenders falls out early and decides to cash out on the draft rather than compete for 10th, but I’m not sure that we’ll see that happen. Sacramento desperately wants to win more than anything in the world, Portland has to appease (or trade?) Dame, and the Lakers aren’t going to waste a year of LeBron and AD when they don’t control their own pick.

This is the easiest path to the play-in the Kings have faced yet; they just have to perform at a halfway decent level to get there, tankers or no tankers.

Will: If a team that was gunning for the playoffs last season and has a reasonable shot this season suddenly reversed course after seeing Wembanyama or Henderson play this week, they’re years too late to the start of the race to the bottom. Sure, there’s a chance that the unknowable occurs and a team like the Mavericks lose Doncic 5 games into the season and decide to jump in, or Denver loses Jokic and Murray early on and make a go for it, but every team that’s truly, truly been in on this draft class made their moves already to start this season. There’s no chance in hell the Lakers decide to roll out a tank if any of Lebron/AD/Westbrook are healthy and the Blazers won’t as long as they still employ Dame Lillard. They Kings are going to have to earn their spot the old fashioned way: praying for better teams to collapse under their hubris.

From rff:

Do you foresee times when Fox is at the 2 and Mitchell is at the 1?

Tim: That would actually be my preferred starting lineup: Fox, Mitchell, Huerter, Murray, and Sabonis.

That group puts Sacramento’s best defender in the starting lineup, and he can cover for Fox at a much higher level than anyone else on the squad, and I truly believe in Huerter’s potential as a full-time wing for this team. This adjustment also keeps Murray at his natural position at the four, provides enough shooting for Fox/Sabonis (although we’re crossing our fingers that Mitchell finds his three-point range, which is by no means a guarantee), and Barnes and Monk can come off of the bench as the primary offensive threats with the subs.

The biggest weakness with this idea is Sacramento’s lack of a reliable third ball-handler, but starting Mitchell and then staggering his and Fox’s minutes throughout the game doesn’t feel particularly difficult to this small giraffe.

Will: If Jerry Reynolds can see it (he mentioned this same course of action in one of our latest episodes) then I can see it too! I’d see this more as a closing lineup for some games down the stretch of the season, with the Kings best defender, their two best players, their best shooter and either Keegan Murray or Harrison Barnes at the four depending on the given night and while it probably wouldn’t happen a ton this season, I’d assume the Kings may end up doing this more and more as Mitchell and Murray mature in the coming years. Mitchell still needs to consistently hit that outside shot, Murray will need a bit of seasoning and a third ball handler will need to be found when the day comes that this is line-up numbero uno, but nothing from the aforementioned players or from Monte McNair exclude those things from happening.

From RikSmits:

How much of a pyrrhic victory would be reaching the play-offs in a season where many teams are Sucking for Scooter or Eschewing Victories for Victor?

Tim: If the Kings actually make the playoffs (NOT the play-in), then I can forgive missing out on Victor and Scott. Yes, they’re both potential generational talents and I would trade any combination of assets/players that the Kings currently control to acquire either one of them, but the Kings are not going to pursue that path under any circumstances, so I can’t get mad if they’re successful in the path they’ve chosen. At some point, you have to win, especially with a fan base that is slowly deteriorating.

Twenty-eight teams aren’t going to get one of those guys, including multiple teams that are throwing away the 2022 season to try luck out in the lottery. Sure, I imagine a path in which the Kings traded Fox/Barnes/Holmes at the last deadline for young players and assets, still drafted a player like Murray or Ivey, and then tanked for one of the two young basketball gods, but Monte McNair chose to win now.

Now, what I cannot and will not forgive is if the Kings try to win and fail. Again. There will be (basketball) hell to pay if the Kings can’t even make the play-in this season, and depending on end-of-season record, that very well may not be good enough for me.

Will: Yeah, I wouldn’t see it as a pyrrhic victory if the Kings made the playoffs, mostly because of the aforementioned reasoning behind who’s dropping and who ain’t. I would have loved either of these guys – I’ve been talking about Wemby for a few years now and my goodness is Scoot going to be a great player in this league. If ever there was a tank commander at The Kings Herald, I’d like to think I’d at least get honorary status as one… but the truth is – Monte was hired to go the opposite way with the goal of reaching the playoffs and reaching that goal, without losing major assets (Hali-Sabonis is a wash currently) and in a somewhat repeatable fashion is just a plain ol’ victory. The Bogi stuff and some of the dumb decision inbetween then and now keep it from being an overwhelming success but, it would be a good solid victory that Sacramento could build off of. The playoffs vindicate Monte, placate Fox, encourage Sabonis to re-sign, energize the fanbase and generally just build the vibes for what would be an even more hyped season next year.

The play-in though? The play-in does none of that and adds only further anxiety to a fanbase that’s one unexpected balloon pop away from having a coronary.

From 1951:

Is Keegan Murray one of the three best players on the Sacramento Kings right now?

Tim: Yes, and he might be the second-best by the end of next season.

Will: If Keegan Murray was clearly the third best player on this team, it wouldn’t be HIS position that’s the last up for grabs in the starting line-up. No, he isn’t, and throwing that pressure on him right off the bat would be unfair to any rookie coming into the league. We did this Davion Mitchell last year. Radio hosts predicting he’d be the MVP of the team when not including Fox, people writing articles about the likelihood of him winning a DPOY and spraying the comments with the already foreseen future of him changing the culture from DAY ONE. Turns out, he was just a rookie point guard – doing well some nights, needing a lot of work other nights.

Keegan is not Lebron James. He’s a great young player, he’s done incredibly well to start his NBA career and I expect really big things from him but, in due time. Harrison Barnes will still be a better NBA player than Keegan Murray next year. It wouldn’t surprise me if Davion Mitchell was a better overall player, as well at the end of the day. By the end of the season? It’s a wash. By next season? Ooh boy, who knows, but it’s exciting to think about.

Now you want to say “third best offensive player” or “third best shooter” and narrow it down? Okay, I can listen. But he is not the third best player on the roster right now, I don’t expect him to be and it won’t ruin my enjoyment of watching him play if he isn’t all season long.