Welcome back to Chainmail! This week, we’re welcoming Brenden Nunes to the Roundtable (no, we don’t have a pizza sponsor) to field some draft and trade questions. Let’s dive right in!
From Rob Hessing:
Rank your top six draft prospects, and then rank what you perceive as the organization’s top six draft picks:
Tim: Me: Holmgren, Smith Jr., Banchero, Sharpe, Ivey, Murray
Kings: Smith Jr., Banchero, Holmgren, Murray, Ivey, Sharpe
Will: I flip flop on Smith Jr. and Holmgren everyday. Today? I’ll sayin Jabari, Chet, Paolo, Ivey, Murray, Sharpe… I think the Kings probably swap Murray and Sharpe there at the end.
Brenden: Me: Holmgren, Smith Jr, Banchero, Ivey, Murray, Griffin
Kings: Smith Jr, Holmgren, Banchero, Murray, Ivey, Griffin,
It seems most people think we will take a player at 4 or trade down for a pick and a veteran. I feel like I’m in the minority of thinking we will trade up. If we traded up from #4, what’s a realistic trade for the #1 pick?
Tim: It would cost a ton and then some. My guess is a lightly to unprotected 2023 first round pick (the deal would have to be officially completed after Sacramento made their selection to avoid Stepien rules) and maybe an additional asset. And for what it’s worth, I don’t think any team in the top-3 is going to consider trading back.
Will: I really don’t see a deal to be made with Orlando. Tossing in Davion Mitchell doesn’t do much because they’re stacked with young point guards, tossing in a vet is meaningless to their rebuilding efforts and the picks Sacramento is sending them are immediately devalued by the first overall pick jumping onto their roster.
Any thin margins for a trade up is probably gotta lie with OKC or Houston. Sam Presti has his eyes set on a star and if he feels like that particular player isn’t available… maybe he takes #4 and next year’s first and a pick swap. He’s already stated that they’ve got another season ahead of talent acquisition and whose to say what he does if his favorite guy is gone.
Brenden: I am all for trading up if it’s reasonable, but that would really require one of the other teams in the top-three being high on one or more of Jaden Ivey, Shaedon Sharpe and/or Keegan Murray. My guess on a trade would be pretty much what Tim laid out with the 4th pick in this draft for example being swapped with OKC at 2 for Sacramento’s 2023 top-4 or unprotected first. Also, can’t help but wonder what sort of value Davion Mitchell holds in this conversation…
Give us your best realistic trade(s) involving the pick.
Tim: If the Pistons really want to move up to snag their guy at four, a Jerami Grant + #5 for #4 trade feels semi-realistic. Grant is on an expiring deal and everyone knows that the Pistons aren’t going to re-sign or extend him. A player in that situation would probably net Detroit a mid-20s pick (similar to Harrison Barnes’ value) which feels about right for the opportunity to move up one spot in the early lottery. I haven’t always been the biggest Grant fan, but adding him for little cost and getting to run him for a year before having to commit big money could be great for Sacramento. He’s also the sort of versatile defender who would pair well with Domantas Sabonis.
If the Kings are looking to deal the pick straight up, they must be getting an All-Star in return.
Will: I hate it, but honestly, Tim’s deal is as realistic as they come in this case. It’s expensive and mostly a lateral move but it’s got the stench of Kangz on it.
Brenden: Tim’s Jerami Grant move is the most obvious to me, and it’s I personally would be happy with if Grant’s extension is closer to the 4yrs/$90-million that Mikal Bridges just got rather than the crazy 4yrs/$117-million max he could receive.
To throw another one out there, John Collins has been another popular name and Kevin Huerter has been floated out there as potentially available as well. I wonder if there’s a deal that Sacramento could find there with something like Harrison Barnes, Justin Holiday and the fourth overall pick for John Collins, Kevin Huerter and the sixteenth.
If the Kings can’t get reasonable return from Detroit or Indiana for swapping down to five or six, who do you like at four, assuming that the top three goes as expected?
Tim: Shaedon Sharpe is who I’m currently falling in love with, even though I had him behind both Jaden Ivey and Keegan Murray not long ago. Beyond anything, the Kings need superstar talent. Fox isn’t a superstar. Sabonis isn’t a superstar. Shaedon Sharpe is their best hope at snagging that player in a slightly unexpected place. Yes, there is huge risk with such a pick, but the Kings have been playing with fire and a shortened timeline since the Haliburton trade, so they may as well go all-in at this point. If Sharpe is the star we’re hoping for, the Kings dodged a bullet. If he’s solid but unspectacular, the risk was understandable. If he busts, that probably spells the end of the Monte-Fox-Sabonis crew, which probably isn’t the worst long-term result for this organization.
Will: Assuming the Big Three stay where they’re supposed to go in the draft, I can’t help but think Keegan Murray is the guy for Sacramento. Sure, sure we’ve already heard from James Ham that the Sacramento Kings aren’t really looking at him for that slot so take all this with a lump of salt. Murray is a guy who doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be effective, is a growing talent on the offensive end and plays damn good defense… sure, he fits a need (gasp, FIT!) as well, but if Monte’s eyes continue to be on smart players that can make an impact on both sides of the ball… Murray should absolutely be the selection.
Brenden: I think I’m going to be a Jaden Ivey guy assuming that Jabari Smith Jr, Chet Holmgren, and Paolo Banchero are the top three. Ivey’s athleticism is simply too intriguing to pass up on to me, and Sharpe is too much of a wild card with him not having been in an authentic competitive setting for the last year. Ivey’s shooting needs some work, but it still went down at an alright rate in his sophomore season at Purdue. He’s talked about as being very coachable due to his mother being Notre Dame’s head coach and her previously working with the Memphis Grizzlies led to Ivey being around that team often — it’s hard to not see a little Ja Morant in his game at times, but they are not the same player.
I personally think that Keegan Murray, if he doesn’t move up, is the best and safest pick at #4. Do you agree?
Tim: Keegan Murray is going to be a very, very good NBA player, and he’s probably a little underrated at this point, which is an odd thing to say when he’s expected to go in the top six or seven picks. Murray is solid to very good at almost every aspect of basketball and he just put up 23.5 points and 8.7 boards on 55/40/75 shooting splits while playing good defense. The primary knock on Keegan is his limited ceiling and age (he’ll be 22 at the start of next season), but I just don’t see his limitations as much as others. Very few players dominated on a nightly basis like Murray did, and unlike many highly-touted draft prospects, he rarely struggled against bigger, more talented teams. If the Kings walk away with Keegan Murray on draft night, they’ll have made a smart, if safe choice.
Will: I agree.
Brenden: Yeahhhhh, averaging 23.5 points on 55.4/39.8/74.7 shooting splits led to Keegan Murray deservedly being debated as the best player in college basketball all of last season. And 55.4 percent from the field while attempting nearly five three-pointers per game is beyond impressive. He’s got promising defensive ability both on the perimeter and at the rim, but wasn’t exactly a standout in either aspect to me. I think it won’t take long for Keegan Murray to have a Jerami Grant level of impact in the NBA, which is something that the Kings desperately need, it’s just hard to not take a higher ceiling option at the fourth pick in the draft.
I’d talk myself into Keegan Murray if he that was the front office’s decision, but I would be very concerned about the future regret that could surround Jaden Ivey’s career from Sacramento’s perspective. There are only so many times that an organization like the Kings has an opportunity to acquire players who have All-Star potential and this is one of them.
Seems like a big weight has been taken off of Richaun’s shoulders this summer. Is he worth keeping to see about his fit as a backup and/or increase trade value, or should they look to move him this summer?
Tim: I would like to find Richaun Holmes a new home, preferably on draft night so the Kings aren’t competing with free agency. He’s not going to want to play a backup, 15-minute per game role in Sacramento when he could be starting for at least a half-dozen teams, assuming he can also return to pre-injury form. I would not be shocked (and this is 100% assumption on my part) if a trade request has already been made.
Will: It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Holmes back in a Kings uniform to at least start next season as their 7th man. All of his on and off the court drama aside, he’s got a new coach, a new system and the same GM who signed him to the largest deal of his life… who knows what that combo comes up with to fit Holmes into the squad this upcoming season. If for no other reason that just to see if his un-Holmes like play was a product of Kangzian existential angst and recoup some value before sending him away at the trade deadline, Holmes should stick around for a bit.
Brenden: I’d be absolutely shocked if the Richaun Holmes plays for the Kings next season. Unless the idea is to see more of him alongside Domantas Sabonis (please, no) then there just simply isn’t enough playing time for him on this roster and he should have decent value on the open market where Sacramento can help add wings.
Could the Charlotte Hornets consider moving either of pick 13 or 15 in this draft for Holmes now that Montrezl Harrell’s deal has expired. Harrell is just a better Holmes, in my mind.
Who of the top 3 is most likely to slip?
Tim: Chet Holmgren. He’s a gawky unicorn who needs at least a year or two to put on weight and adjust to NBA levels of speed and strength. I think the top-3 will stick as it’s projected to go, but if someone’s going to slide, it’ll be Chet.
Will: Definitely think it’s going to be Banchero who drops and all it’s going to take is Houston falling in love with Ivey or Sharpe as the backcourt-partner-of-the-future with Jalen Green. Smith Jr. is too safe a prospect to fall and Holmgren is too much of a unicorn to pass by… Banchero is a great young player with a mold that GM’s have seen before.
Brenden: Oof. I think Paolo Banchero? Really expecting that the top-three does go as expected… but, what do I know? If I have to guess one I’d go with Banchero though, probably because I think that Chat Holmgren and Jabari Smith Jr are too phenomenal to second guess.
Do you think Monte gets an extension before the season starts? Or is he going into his final season with the Kings?
Tim: No, he won’t get an extension, nor should he receive one. In the two years that Monte has been in charge, the Kings have posted a record of 61-93, or an average of 32 wins per season. At some point, results have to matter, and Monte has shown no results in two years at the helm. If he misses the playoffs this next season, he’s gotta go.
There’s also the factor to consider that managerial contracts in the NBA have no limitations for in-season adjustments. The Kings can choose to offer Monte McNair a new contract at any point next season. At the All-Star break, if the Kings look great, Vivek can throw him a three year extension. If Sacramento looks terrible 30 games in, Monte can be dismissed and the Kings aren’t out a decent chunk of money. As weird as it feels, I’m with Vivek on this one.
Will: Let’s put it this way: Monte isn’t getting an extension at the start of this season. If the Kings are rocking and rolling near the trade deadline, I can see Monte saying “hey, are you really still letting me make these decisions without giving me extra years on my contract?” and Vivek handing out a two year extension prior or just after the All-Star Break. It also wouldn’t surprise me at all if there is a hard-line playoff mandate: get me a four game series in the playoffs and you get your money… to which we’re probably saying bon voyage, mon Monte.
Brenden: I’m for Monte McNair getting an extension, but I understand why it’s an unpopular decision. My thought is that he just traded away Tyrese Haliburton to acquire Domantas Sabonis, who has a very specific timeline to himself but needs an improved surrounding roster (which he could have improved by now).
A front office member feeling unable to take the “right” move because it’s lack of immediate payoff and their own future riding on immediate production concerns me. I don’t think Monte McNair and Wes Wilcox have done anything to prove they are clearly good General Managers, but they also haven’t proven to be bad either. Just allow them to line up with the player that they invested in and new head coach Mike Brown to try and have everyone on the same page for once.
What’s the lowest level of player you would accept for the 4th pick? I think Beal is a pipe dream, but what about Siakam or Grant?
Tim: Tyrese Haliburton
Will: I’m actually of the opinion that Beal is more gettable at this point than Siakam. Wizards are stuck at the cross roads without any help in sight, Beal is getting older every season and the Wiz already have youth to jumpstart any rebuild they want to do. Meanwhile its the Raptors that surprised everyone by not being terrible and growing into a really nice amalgam of youth and experience. The Raptors could easily run this back and be okay… the Wizards, not so much.
I’d definitely place my line for the fourth pick right around that kind of player… or maybe like an OG Anunoby and a future pick mixed in.
Brenden: Damnit, Tim. Maybe Jaren Jackson Jr, Mikal Bridges or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander?
Jerami Grant for the fourth pick straight up would be bad to me. Just take Keegan Murray at that point and his added years of team control. I’ll go with John Collins, and even that trade would be questionable to me.