By the numbers: De’Aaron Fox is hitting his prime

De’Aaron Fox is a special player, as illustrated by his back-to-back performance of 60 points and then 49 points this week. Following the win over the Utah Jazz Saturday night at the Golden 1 Center, in which Fox had to fill the scoring void missing DeMar DeRozan, Domantas Sabonis and Malik Monk in the lineup, head coach Mike Brown declared that Fox is entering his prime. And it certainly makes sense given his age: Swipa turns 27 next month. The average age of players hitting their peak/prime is generally considered around this age, and some research indicates that it happens on average around 27 years old.

“He’s hitting his prime. He understands what winning is about,” Brown said.

A coach will more likely than not heap high praise on his players publicly, but Fox’s numbers also tell a compelling story that supports Brown’s assessment, beyond just the fact that he is at that age when NBA players typically begin their peak production.

The Scoring Evolution

Fox’s offensive output has reached new heights this season, posting a career-high 28.9 points per game while shooting 50% from the field. His points per game have increased each of his last three seasons (25, 26.6, and now 28.9). He can get to his spots when he wants too, as highlighted by his true shooting percentage of 61.1 (the highest of his career) illustrating that he’s converting at a high level when he gets there. The true shooting percentage is a measurement of a player’s efficiency when shooting. The average true shooting percentage in the league this season is 57.3.

The Usage-Efficiency Balance

What makes Fox’s progression impressive in recent years is how he has maintained efficiency while taking on more responsibility. From his early years of a 23.4% usage percentage (when he was just feeding an aging Zach Randolph … yeah, remember that?) to a career high of 32% this season. As this progression has taken place, his field goal percentage hasn’t suffered. He is at 50% from the field this season, which is just slightly behind his best at 51% in the first year of the Beam Team in the 2022-23 season. And he has improved from three, shooting 36% last season and 34% this season. It seems his days of shooting under 30% from three are over. This is an example of the consistency you look for in top players in their prime.

Control Of His Game

One of the most important developments of Fox’s career has been his ability to control his speed. When he first joined the league, he was flying up and down the floor. Former head coach Dave Joerger tried to harness that speed by pushing the whole team to attempt to run as fast as they could to keep up with him and tire opponents out. Fox’s first two seasons featured his two lowest field goal percentages of his career at 41% and 45%. These days he isn’t just trying to blow by everyone with his elite speed. He stops and starts to get his opponents off balance. He picks and chooses when to use it based on the game situation.  Along with that comes the game slowing down for him, the ability to find where he wants to be on the floor and getting there regardless of what the other team tries to do to defend him.

Assist-to-Turnover Ratio

Before a recent dislocated finger that caused ligament damage on his shooting hand that he is playing through, Fox showed growth in his assist-to-turnover ratio that hit 2.47 in 2022-23 and stayed above 2.0 last season. This is a very good ratio for a high usage player. He has hit 2.0 or above in 5 of his 8 seasons. This season it has dropped to 1.5, however, the injury to his finger is likely a key factor with that because it has forced him to dribble with his pinkie and ring finger taped together on his left hand. Playing through injury has become a hallmark of his game also, an example of his dedication.

The Statistical Perfect Storm

When a player reaches their prime playing years, you typically begin to see career highs popping up across various categories. He checks a lot of boxes so far this season:

• Career-high PER (22.5)
• Career-high usage percentage (32%)
• Career-high free throw percentage (84%). And second highest free throw attempts of his career at 6.8.
• Career-high points per game (28.9)
• Career-high rebounds (5)
• Sustained elite points per possession (1.2)

Improvements On Defense

Ever since the 2022-23 season, when he was awarded Clutch Player of the Year, we have been introduced to the next level of De’Aaron Fox. We had seen it before then in flashes, but since then he has started do it more consistently while increasing his production and percentages. And he has become more of a two-way player at the same time, willingly taking on defensive assignments. In terms of his on/off stats, last season he was in the 84th percentile in opponents points per 100 possessions played, according to Cleaning The Glass. (This season he is in the 70th percentile.) He is in the 66th percentile in terms of opponent effective field goal percentage. Last season, he averaged a career-high 2 steals per game, and this season is right there again at 1.8 steals per game. This is the best back-to-back season for him in this category.

And there is still more to come in terms of potential improvement:

“When you have a guy that can score at three levels, it’s the best of all worlds. What he has to keep understanding, though, is me getting to my spots in that paint is what’s going to set up that three ball, and that’s what he’s really shown these last two games. He’s getting to that paint and so now guys are so concerned with him getting downhill that he’s got a ton of room when he lets that thing fly behind the line,” Brown said.

Fox producing at such a high level entering his prime years is reassuring for this franchise. Next season is the last of his 5-year deal he signed with the Kings in 2021-22. He is slated to make $37 million next season.