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By the numbers: De’Aaron Fox is hitting his prime

It is a wonderful thing.
By | 19 Comments | Nov 18, 2024

Nov 15, 2024; Sacramento, California, USA; Sacramento Kings guard De'Aaron Fox (5) reacts after scoring a basket during overtime against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

De’Aaron Fox is a special player, as illustrated by his back-to-back performance of 60 points and then 49 points this week. Following the win over the Utah Jazz Saturday night at the Golden 1 Center, in which Fox had to fill the scoring void missing DeMar DeRozan, Domantas Sabonis and Malik Monk in the lineup, head coach Mike Brown declared that Fox is entering his prime. And it certainly makes sense given his age: Swipa turns 27 next month. The average age of players hitting their peak/prime is generally considered around this age, and some research indicates that it happens on average around 27 years old.

“He’s hitting his prime. He understands what winning is about,” Brown said.

A coach will more likely than not heap high praise on his players publicly, but Fox’s numbers also tell a compelling story that supports Brown’s assessment, beyond just the fact that he is at that age when NBA players typically begin their peak production.

The Scoring Evolution

Fox’s offensive output has reached new heights this season, posting a career-high 28.9 points per game while shooting 50% from the field. His points per game have increased each of his last three seasons (25, 26.6, and now 28.9). He can get to his spots when he wants too, as highlighted by his true shooting percentage of 61.1 (the highest of his career) illustrating that he’s converting at a high level when he gets there. The true shooting percentage is a measurement of a player’s efficiency when shooting. The average true shooting percentage in the league this season is 57.3.

The Usage-Efficiency Balance

What makes Fox’s progression impressive in recent years is how he has maintained efficiency while taking on more responsibility. From his early years of a 23.4% usage percentage (when he was just feeding an aging Zach Randolph … yeah, remember that?) to a career high of 32% this season. As this progression has taken place, his field goal percentage hasn’t suffered. He is at 50% from the field this season, which is just slightly behind his best at 51% in the first year of the Beam Team in the 2022-23 season. And he has improved from three, shooting 36% last season and 34% this season. It seems his days of shooting under 30% from three are over. This is an example of the consistency you look for in top players in their prime.

Control Of His Game

One of the most important developments of Fox’s career has been his ability to control his speed. When he first joined the league, he was flying up and down the floor. Former head coach Dave Joerger tried to harness that speed by pushing the whole team to attempt to run as fast as they could to keep up with him and tire opponents out. Fox’s first two seasons featured his two lowest field goal percentages of his career at 41% and 45%. These days he isn’t just trying to blow by everyone with his elite speed. He stops and starts to get his opponents off balance. He picks and chooses when to use it based on the game situation.  Along with that comes the game slowing down for him, the ability to find where he wants to be on the floor and getting there regardless of what the other team tries to do to defend him.

Assist-to-Turnover Ratio

Before a recent dislocated finger that caused ligament damage on his shooting hand that he is playing through, Fox showed growth in his assist-to-turnover ratio that hit 2.47 in 2022-23 and stayed above 2.0 last season. This is a very good ratio for a high usage player. He has hit 2.0 or above in 5 of his 8 seasons. This season it has dropped to 1.5, however, the injury to his finger is likely a key factor with that because it has forced him to dribble with his pinkie and ring finger taped together on his left hand. Playing through injury has become a hallmark of his game also, an example of his dedication.

The Statistical Perfect Storm

When a player reaches their prime playing years, you typically begin to see career highs popping up across various categories. He checks a lot of boxes so far this season:

Improvements On Defense

Ever since the 2022-23 season, when he was awarded Clutch Player of the Year, we have been introduced to the next level of De’Aaron Fox. We had seen it before then in flashes, but since then he has started do it more consistently while increasing his production and percentages. And he has become more of a two-way player at the same time, willingly taking on defensive assignments. In terms of his on/off stats, last season he was in the 84th percentile in opponents points per 100 possessions played, according to Cleaning The Glass. (This season he is in the 70th percentile.) He is in the 66th percentile in terms of opponent effective field goal percentage. Last season, he averaged a career-high 2 steals per game, and this season is right there again at 1.8 steals per game. This is the best back-to-back season for him in this category.

And there is still more to come in terms of potential improvement:

“When you have a guy that can score at three levels, it’s the best of all worlds. What he has to keep understanding, though, is me getting to my spots in that paint is what’s going to set up that three ball, and that’s what he’s really shown these last two games. He’s getting to that paint and so now guys are so concerned with him getting downhill that he’s got a ton of room when he lets that thing fly behind the line,” Brown said.

Fox producing at such a high level entering his prime years is reassuring for this franchise. Next season is the last of his 5-year deal he signed with the Kings in 2021-22. He is slated to make $37 million next season.

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Daydreamer
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November 18, 2024 10:12 am

All of this with an injured shooting hand! What if he wasn’t hurt?

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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Nostradumbass 14
November 18, 2024 10:25 am
Reply to  Daydreamer

I’m beginning to wonder if his finger has been somewhat of a blessing in disguise. He’s attacking the paint more and got back to his mid-range game while settling for less 3pt attempts.

Last season 37% of his shot from from 3, while this year it has dropped to 30%.

Last season 24% of his shots from from 3-10ft, while this year he’s at a career high 29%.

DeRozan may be the chairman of the midi-committee, but Fox is his vice-chair.

OLDBHOY
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November 18, 2024 10:28 am
Reply to  Adamsite

I completely agree. Even if his finger is fine, his mindset should always be attack first, second and third. Then if he takes an open three, fine.

9sac8
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November 18, 2024 3:06 pm
Reply to  OLDBHOY

Attack, attack, attack. Damn climbing the mountain together. We need to create some sort of separation. The West is crazy good this year. Expect a dogfight pretty much every night.

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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Nostradumbass 14
November 18, 2024 10:13 am

If we are currently witnessing the prime years of Fox and Sabonis and the Kings fail to make any noise in the playoffs, let alone make the playoffs, what does that mean for the future? What does it mean for Monte?

Many of us got to witness first hand the greatness and prime years of Mitch Richmond, but had had little to no post season success. We can talk about his supporting cast, coaching, management, etc, but are we approaching a similar situation with not one great player, but two? Is the league just that much deeper with talent or are the Kings just Kangz?

We are long ways from failing to make playoff noise this season, so speculation is way early, but damn the West looks deep. The Kings could sniff 50 wins and still be a play-in team.

OLDBHOY
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November 18, 2024 10:32 am
Reply to  Adamsite

The West is brutally tough, historically tough. I am hoping for a top six finish and at least a competitive first round series. They have two very good players in their prime but also a pretty flawed roster overall. They could be better than two years ago but still not have as much success.

Last edited 17 days ago by OLDBHOY
Klam
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November 18, 2024 10:42 am
Reply to  Adamsite

There are several teams that I didn’t feel would be that good this year that have better records than the Kings currently. Just makes the West that much tougher to play in.

MMalone
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November 18, 2024 12:44 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Spend the money and put a team around him that is solid in every way. That is what every championship organization has done.

If this team cannot win with Fox get something for him in return.

MMalone
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November 18, 2024 12:27 pm

Go get another big so his prime includes championship contention.

Hippity_Hop_Barbershop
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November 18, 2024 12:32 pm

If Fox was on an East Coast team, he’d be on ESPN every night.

MMalone
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November 18, 2024 12:38 pm

He is often on ESPN here. If his team won more games he would have been on ESPN his entire career. Hopefully this year that changes.

Hippity_Hop_Barbershop
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November 18, 2024 1:10 pm
Reply to  MMalone

Agreed, we need a proper playoff run for real re$pect.

MMalone
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November 18, 2024 1:21 pm

Please…please…..get into the second round!

Klam
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November 18, 2024 12:42 pm

Fox is officially Player of the Week!

Sacramento's De'Aaron Fox and Orlando's Franz Wagner were just named Western and Eastern Conference Player of the Week.More NBA from me: marcstein.substack.com

Marc Stein (@thesteinline.bsky.social) 2024-11-18T20:35:16.396Z

UpgradedToQuestionable
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November 18, 2024 1:01 pm

First off – Blake! You hit your prime a while ago and you are now at Prime Plus. Bravo! on this article.

Flowers, Kudos, Praise, Applaud – all of that applies to De’Aaron Martez Fox (last name Him) which had the bright beam spotlight on his performance these last two games (68 more to go this season) which is incentivized by the team’s disappointing Playoff absence last season and the huge (thank you Adamsite) jump in contract dollars should he be awarded All-NBA (and/or I believe, Defensive Player of the Year and/or Most Valuable Player) this season

comment image.

With Domas, DeRozan and Malik Monk on the sidelines – Swipa gets to re-enact Rock Richmond circa 1995-96 (the roles of Brian Grant and Tyus Edney will be played by Keegan Murray and Jordan McLaughlin, respectively). I think he is up to the task.

Any comps to backcourt stars now or in the past? John Wall, Damian Lillard, Ja Morant, Tiny Archibald, Monta Ellis, Clyde Frazier?

Last edited 16 days ago by UpgradedToQuestionable
UpgradedToQuestionable
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November 18, 2024 1:12 pm

From CBS Sports with my parentheses and already mentioned by Adamsite on a different thread, with some extras:

Fox was eligible to add $165 ($55M/year) million and three years to his current, rookie-max contract this offseason. By waiting a year, he opens at least one more lucrative door and perhaps two.

No matter what, Fox will be eligible for a four-year, $229 ($57.25M/year) million extension next offseason. By waiting the extra season, he becomes eligible to get that extra year because he’d have one fewer year left on his existing contract.

If he receives the above mentioned accolades, this will allow him to add five new seasons to his existing contract next summer and guarantee him a staggering $345 million ($69M/year).

Last edited 16 days ago by UpgradedToQuestionable
NorCalKingsFan
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November 18, 2024 6:41 pm

Interesting. $345M/5 seems wild at first, but THB it really means nothing to me without being represented as a percentage of the cap.

Based on a quick search and an assumption the Kings will (and continue to) operate right around the 1st apron, his current deal (2024) is paying him $35M or around 20% of the $178M 1st apron threshold.

If he gets the $345M over 5yrs, that looks to be about 35% of the $196M cap.

Est. Salary as a % of 2025-2026 1st Apron ($196M) if Fox gets the SupaMax:
Fox = 35.2%
Domas = 22.2%
DDR = 12.5%
Monk = 9.5%
Huerter = 9.1%
Murray = 5.7%
Carter = 2.5%
Ellis = 1.2%
M. Jones = 1.2%

Some of the other notable players already eligible for the supermax contract (I believe):
Doncic
SGA
Edwards

While I hope Fox gets All-NBA and All-Defensive team, that $70M annual salary is going to be tough to build around, at least that’s how it seems as of now. For context, the highest annual salary in the NBA right now is Curry with $55M (31% of the $178M 1st apron), followed by Kawhi, Embiid, Jokic, and the 3 Suns all around $50M annually.

NorCalKingsFan
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November 18, 2024 6:46 pm
Reply to  NorCalKingsFan

edit, that should be Colby Jones instead of Mason

Kosta
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November 18, 2024 1:20 pm

Also starring Alex Len, as Duane Causwell…?

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