In April of 2023, the Golden State Warriors exposed Domantas Sabonis. Golden State’s defensive gamplan was to regularly leave Sabonis open above the free throw line, clogging the paint and daring Sabonis to shoot. Sabonis didn’t, and a narrative was born. Even as he attempted to improve last season, the criticisms remained. Sabonis needed to shoot threes, and make them, and shoot them at higher volume. You could see the growth last season, but the volume was still low and Sabonis never looked comfortable. Sabonis finished last season averaging 1.1 threes per game and making them at a very respectable 37.9%, but it really wasn’t much different from his numbers the season before.
This season we’ve seen Sabonis take a major leap forward in his willingness and ability to take threes and long twos when left open, and he’s hitting them with consistency. It’s the exact leap people have wanted to see from Sabonis, and we’re far enough into the season now to start believing our eyes and the numbers.
Taking a look at Sabonis’ shot charts from the previous two seasons compared to this year, it’s obvious how much more comfortable Sabonis is and how well he’s shooting:
20 games into the season, and Sabonis is on pace to more than double his three point attempts, as well as his long twos. Sabonis is averaging 2.5 threes per game, and is making them at a fantastic rate of 42.2%. On shots 15-19 ft, Sabonis is shooting 64.3%. 20-24 feet? 55.6%. Sabonis’ worst distance inside the arc right now is 5-9 feet where he’s still shooting 46.2%.
And watching the games, the eye test backs this all up. Sabonis’ first instinct is still not to shoot when he’s away from the basket, but if he’s left open he pulls up and punishes the defense. His shot looks smooth. He looks comfortable. An open Sabonis three is a shot I welcome seeing.
The improvement has also carried over to the free throw line, which was always a weakness for Sabonis. Domas came into this season as a career 72.6% free throw shooter, with a career best season of 75% in 2017-18. This season Domas is shooting 84.1% from the charity stripe. Being able to consistently punish opponents from the line is huge for any big man.
Domantas Sabonis put in the work and improved on one of his biggest weaknesses, and has turned it into a strength. For as much flak as he caught over the last year or two, it only seems right that we take the time to acknowledge and celebrate the way Sabonis has improved his game and made himself even more valuable to the Kings.
Good stuff, Greg.
I like seeing an aggressive and involved Domas in the 1st half the other night. Where he gets tripped up is that low-post, dribbling too much and allowing defenders to swipe at the ball. Make a decision to pass or shoot.
Hopefully teams start to respect his outside shot so the lane stays more open for cuts and drives. Get the motion offense going, because your big is a good shooter and passer.
A power forward that can score on the wing and in the paint is what he needs.
Why?
He is the only big in the paint and is attacked because he plays on a small team.
A scoring threat next to him will force a defense to slack off of him occasionally.
We can get more rebounds with size.
He will have someone to pass to in the paint from the high post.
Many more reasons. The need for a four has been discussed in detail for over a year now.
That’s just not true. Kings have the 5th best points in the paint defense in the league this year. They were 13th last year. The problem is 3pt defense, teams are shooting 45% of their shots from deep on the Kings, good for 5th most in the league. Only the Jazz, Bulls, Grizz, and Hawks allow more 3pt attempts, but the Kings allow the 2nd most makes at 14.8. The team is getting killed from the 3pt line, not in the paint.
Is he not the only big in the paint?
Is he typically in foul trouble because he is the only big in the paint?
Would the three point shot be defended better if we had some more size in the paint so our small guards do not have to collapse into the paint to successfully defend the paint?
Our team collapses into the paint instead of defending the perimeter because we lack size and a good defensive mindset. Our perimeter defense sucks and our defense in the paint is good because we give up the perimeter to protect the paint.
5th best of anything. Last years rebound leader. Last years steal leader. We are FAST. All of these equal a below .500 team because our roster is missing pieces.
Tell me more.
What do you think about the need for a big?
They need one
Again, you said: “He is the only big in the paint, and IS ATTACKED because he plays on a small team.”
I point out facts using stats, you then argue that he is NOT BEING ATTACKED because the defense is collapsing and allowing threes and even admit the “defense in the paint is good” when the crux of your argument is that we need better defense at the rim.
You’re talking in circles.
Attacked by defenders and by other bigs getting to the basket easily. You must have one thousand posts talking about how Sabonis takes a beating and it is all the referees fault. The statistics you listed without understanding them were in reference to the lack of three point defense and decent defense in the paint.
I explained what has been said many times by you and others here. The team does not defend the perimeter. They defend the paint. Get another big at the four and the defense can function in a complete way instead of half assed.
If you don’t like change stop complaining about the team.
Please see my response to Delesandro.
Ok? What are you getting at?
We are ok without a power forward?
You just said the perimeter defense is horrible and the inside defense is ok.
Are you saying that the team should maintain the interior defense at the sacrifice of the perimeter defense?
I think length, height, and toughness are a glaring need for this team.
In my mind, it’s not a one or the other. I’ve often pointed out that the Kings appear to sag off the perimeter to help prevent the down hill drive to the paint. The result of that is more open 3s as they rotate to help, but they are being coached that way.
Now, I don’t think that’s a personnel issue, it’s a system issue. It’s by design. If you add a rim protecting big next to Sabonis to help with paint defense, like MMalone suggests, you just took a perimeter wing defender out of the set. You’ve gone from 4 quick footed perimeter players to 3. Teams are simply going to stretch more and shoot more 3s, which the Kings, in Brown’s system, doesn’t defend.
There are plenty of teams, lacking length and height, that defend the 3pt line, because they are coached that way. The three top 3pt defending teams in the league right now are Golden State, Dallas, and the Thunder who all lack height and length in their core rotation (Chet has played in just 10 games) and all of their starting 4s are smaller than Keegan.
I truly feel their defensive issues are a systemic problem more than a player problem.
To stress my point, Cleveland has a worse 3pt defensive percentage than the Kings, and they start two long and tall rim protectors in Allen and Mobley
Having length and height for rim protections does not equal better 3pt defense. It just isn’t that black and white.
Bad defenders and undersized guards play a step or two back to avoid getting beat on defense. It is not a coaching issue. It is a player not willing to or capable of playing man to man defense. They give up a few steps to stay in front of an opponent instead of stop the opponent.
Go to a grade school playground at recess and see it in action.
Hear, hear!
His shot is noticeably improved, as is his willingness to take it. It’s a refreshing change. I have very little to complain about in Sabonis’ game (sans an uptick in turnovers and fouls).
I love Domas and kudos to his shooting development but his recent turnover numbers are disgustingly bad and hurting the team. That is not an ‘uptick’.
A (big) part of that is on coaching but he is not blameless.
Just checked. He had 45 TO’s in the last nine games…
And yet only averaging 0.4 more per game than last season.
Yes, but also averaging 1.8 less assists per game than last season.
Ok but that’s not what you were saying was the issue. His turnovers have gone up slightly on a per game basis. Calling them an uptick is accurate. The last several games have been particularly bad, not disagreeing with you there. But now shifting to assists being down is moving the goalposts.
Turnovers hurt the team. That’s why I led with that complaint in the last recap. But they are also a very recent issue, not even an issue that’s been consistent over the full season (for Domas).
Keeping the goal posts stationary.
I think he turns the ball over more when they are playing from behind. Taking more risk to score instead of maintaining possession. Instead kicking the ball back out he has to dribble or leap uncontrolled to score.
No math or statistics to show it. My opinion asked on watching him and this team play.
I was talking about “his recent turnover numbers” and pointed out the last 9 games. Then you mentioning the numbers for the whole season is not moving the goal posts?
If not, and saying that you need to look at the whole season so far for perspective (which is fair), then why would be also looking at the assists numbers be moving the goal posts? Assist to turnover ratio is relevant here.
I agree. The TOs are slightly higher, as are Fox’s, but the assists are significantly down. I feel it’s acceptable to have more turnovers if the assists are kicking up, that just the law of averages. The more you pass the higher the tendency of a TO.
The fact that both stars on the Kings have a glaringly worse assist to TO ratio than in the past is what is relevant. To me, it sounds like a system thing. It could also be the introduction of DeRozan. I feel passes to him don’t often get turned into assists because he goes into dribble ISO mode. Barnes too could get a bucket in in post if he wanted to, but he was also more of a catch and shoot player (which IMO Sabonis needs around him).
Doesn’t help when the team sucks at making shots.
I may be off course here (of course), but I believe that a large influence in assists and thus assist/turnover ratio is this teams poor 3 point shooting.
DHOmas (because he DHO’s mas) is missing an assist or four a game when two of his three previous targets are clanking something fierce (Huerter and Keegan. His third target, Black Falcon returns to SAC today).
Can’t assist if you can’t score.
I am very much impressed with the rung up the ladder improvement with Sabonis shooting from the high post elbow and the 3 point line. You can see him look much more comfortable in launching the 3 instead of his past I’ll pretend to shoot the long ball fake and then pass.
Even greater kudos to his free throw gains. He gets fouled a lot- whether it is called or not is a different issue – but to have him make those two FTs or complete a 3 point play (yes yes the old fashioned way) makes this fan very satisfied.
He’s becoming/become a 3 level scorer (inside/outside-3 Point/FT.
Big Ups to #11! He’s no longer just Dunkin’ Domas.
Solid points! Poor three point shooting, to many ISO scorers, and an increase in TO’s are all contributing to less assists. It would be interesting to see how many of his assists are (or are not) going to outside shooters as compared to players on cuts to the rim or under the hoop and compare that to years past.
Sabonis is the long term hope for this team.
Domas has his flaws but it’s difficult to find a harder worker, great teammate , highly skilled and still improving player in Kings history . Truly enjoy watching this ultimate competitor .
I think he knows how to win. Understands what a winning culture is. That is huge.
I love how Domas works on his game, plays hard, and gives a crap. He presents some team building challenges, but with a good long PF next to him, our defensive scheme should be more effective covering the 3PT line and cover some of his weakness defending the rim. It’s exciting to see him adding wrinkles and improving his efficiency. Here here.
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