When the Sacramento Kings acquired DeMar DeRozan it dramatically shifted the makeup of the roster. While there are questions about defense and fit, one of the biggest questions is how does DeRozan impact Keegan Murray’s role? We don’t know for sure what the starting lineup will look like, but we assume DeRozan probably starts at the wing, with Keegan Murray sliding down to the power forward spot. Keegan was always a bit of a tweener forward on offense, and has shown the ability to guard pretty much any position, so I don’t worry too much about Murray being called the power forward instead of the small forward. The bigger question is what will his role look like in the offense.
DeRozan has spoken since joining the Kings about how he isn’t concerned with the size of his role. He’s coming to Sacramento to win, and understands that he might get a couple fewer touches per game than he did as he led a middling Bulls squad. But DeRozan is still good enough that he warrants a significant role in Sacramento’s offense, and adding another high-usage, high-impact offensive player is bound to have a trickle-down effect. DeMar, De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, and Malik Monk all had usage rates over 22% last season. I’d expect everyone’s usage to decrease slightly, but I also still expect those four to lead the Kings in usage rate.
Keegan Murray entered last season with a perhaps unfair expectation from fans and coaches to emerge as Sacramento’s third main option on offense. He did his best to step up and answer the call, and demonstrated an improved ability to score off the dribble and took a significant step forward in finishing at the rim. Keegan became a threat to score at all three levels, but did so as the expense of his efficiency. Keegan’s three point shooting dipped from 41.1% to 35.8%. Keegan increased his two-pointer volume, and while he scored better on twos, his overall efficiency was still down, with his True Shooting % dropping from 59.7% to 56.9%, and his eFG% dropping from 58.4% to 54.8%.
My hope is that DeRozan’s arrival has a positive impact on Keegan’s offense. I still want to see Keegan attack at all three levels, but with more defensive attention on DeRozan (and Fox, and Sabonis, and Monk) Keegan can pick his spots rather than forcing the issue. The dream I have in my mind is Keegan playing the Harrison Barnes role, camped in the corner to space the floor and knock down easy, open shots. But unlike Barnes, Keegan can, and will, attack the defense on a closeout, moving into the mid range or driving to the rim. That is where Keegan has all the tools to shine on offense and thrive even in a smaller role than last season.
And in the meantime, Keegan can spend the year practicing against DeRozan and learning even more tools and tricks.
I’m really worried. I saw more pics of Keegan smiling this offseason than the whole previous off-season and season combined! (I just hope these are AI generated)
They might have been Kris…(I noticed that Kris had a birthday recently too)
As Keegan is moved to a more regulated power forward spot – I am expecting that we won’t see the 20 ppg scorer we spoke of at one time (the Kings had a trio of 20 ppg scorers that one season with Boogie Cousins (22.7), Rudy Gay (20.1) and The Pizza Guy Isaiah Thomas (20.3) 2013-2014) as I predict De’Aaron Fox at 24-25 ppg, DeMar DeRozan at 23-25 ppg, and Domantas Sabonis at 19 (like his 2 previous seasons) will add the bulk of the scoring (and let’s not forget the 15ppg or so from Malik Monk) and maybe Keegan at 16-18 ppg. You add that up – that’s 87+ ppg from those 5 (!). That’s a lot of offense.
I am most hoping and somewhat expecting a jump in his rebounding numbers (4.5 rookie year, 5.5 last season) to a 7+ rpg level with HB40 and his 3.0 rpg (yeah, you read that right) gone (though I will also mention that both Fox at 4.6 rpg and DeRozan 4.3 rpg last season are good rebounders)
I think that improved rebounding numbers, his defensive improvements last season and an improvement in efficiency – not just his 3FG% but picking his spots and shots better – will be what I am looking for. Basically, a better rounded NBA starter level player.
I will add, that though I don’t expect his points per game to climb dramatically, I believe we will see a Keegan Murray with more “break out” performances – more 25 point, 30 point and maybe some 35 point or more level outings.
Remember, last December 16 saw that amazing 47 point outburst against the Jazz with his 11 3 pointers in a row (he finished 12-15 from 3 point land), but his next highest scoring games were 33, 32, 32, 30 as his only 30 point or greater games in his young, two season career.
Of all the players on the roster, Keegan is the one who would seem to benefit the most from DeRozan’s arrival. I could see him getting a little more rest than last year, coming in around 32 mpg, down from 33.6. I bet that both his OR and DR numbers go up, DR more than OR. I would expect an improvement on his 3P shot to something closer to 40% and total PPG going up a little to the 16-17 range, due to getting his sea legs on defense and more efficiency / open shots on offense. He could have a really big season.
Given the work that Fox has put in on defense, along with the increased usage of Keon, I see Keegan really becoming an anchor on a defense that will flirt with the top 10 in the league all year. They’ll have some struggles against big teams again, but I expect better perimeter defense will relieve some pressure on Keegan to be dominant against classically big PFs.
Between KM, DDR, and Keon, I’m not sure who I’m most excited to watch this year. Probably DeMar, but Keegan is definitely right up there!
I love your high exactions and positive vibes on the son of Ambassador Sarek. I too believe he will have a much better season than last.
you might agree with this, I’m most excited to see DeRozan on the floor for Kings this season but most excited to see Spock’s improved game and collaboration within this newly formed Big 4.
With my SF Giants eliminated and the Niners being stuck in injury hell, I’m really looking forward to the Kings season getting started. I can’t wait to see DeRozan in a Kings uniform, along with the impact that he’ll have on Keon and Keegan outside the arc.
I’m also excited about what the Kings defense can become. Others have mentioned it on this site, but Fox has quietly become one of the best defensive PGs in the league. The Kings break my spirit every year, so I’m trying not to get too pumped up about this upcoming season. But I do expect a lot of really exciting moments, even if I don’t start the season expecting much more than competitiveness for a playoff spot.
I expect, with Keon starting or playing significant minutes, for the whole season this year plus Fox and Keegan’s continued improvement on defense and the addition of DeRozan’s clutch offense, we will see a significant improvement in outcomes for the Kings. Not expecting top 3 seeding, but 4-6 is definitely within reach if they all click like they should and not have significant injuries.
Well said. Again, I hate to harp on Barnes because I like the guy and wish he was still here coming off the bench but… his defense was not good (DeRozan who has a bad reputation as a defender has a better defensive rating) AND… as you pointed out, his rebounding!!! I personally had forgotten about that “minor” detail. Our starting power forward last season averaged 1.6 FEWER rebounds than our starting point guard. Holy crap. That’s not Coke Machine level bad but it’s still shocking to to see.
I’m going to take a wild guess and say that 3.0 rebounds as a starting power forward is likely the lowest average of any starting power forward in the entire NBA last season.
I’m completely zoned in on that statistical number at the moment in regards to Spock which this post is all about. I too would expect the Vulcan’s rebounding numbers to go up from last season. Even if he only averages 5RB’s a game that’s still a significant improvement from the player you had at that position last season. Every possession counts in the NBA, we all know that. Does our starting power forward last season averaging 5 rebounds a game translate into more wins for the team? I would say 100% yes. Likely enough to avoid the play in.
Two comments:
More rebounding can only be positive, as long as we don’t give up defense. Keeping Keon as a significant rotation piece and adding more rebounding and scoring with DeRozan compared to Barnes will be huge!
You can attribute those generated photographs to his nemesis Nero. F@c%ing Romulans.
If the push into the tweener spot is not too much at the NBA level for Keegan he will be just fine. Derozan can open up the game for Keegan. If you have to choose to leave someone open to slow down Derozan it is likely Keegan getting the room to score. Super stoked to see Derozan doing what he has done for his entire career in a Kings uni!
The Kings are going to be really good. This is going to be fun. Can’t wait!
I expect Murray will get a serviceable amount of open looks on passes from DeRozan, as he does from Fox and Monk when they collapse the defense.
No way to really know how the rotations will shake out, but I’d expect Murray to have a considerable share of his minutes coming while DeRozan is resting.
Given what we’ve seen, the determining factor on how KM’s offense looks this season will depend less on what DeRozan does, than it will on Keegan’s confidence and willingness to be aggressive when he has the ball.
I think you might be right. When DeRozan goes off S’chn T’gai will slide to SF and Lyles will come in at PF. That feels fairly logical
I firmly believe that DeRozan will be a huge boon for Keegan. While Keegan has an ability to score off the dribble, create his own shot, or make tough baskets, it doesn’t seem to be what he excels at – at least not on the NBA level.
Last season I believe showed us that he is an extremely versatile 3&D forward that can defend multiple positions and score in various ways. DeRozan takes a huge burden off of him to become some ball-dominant superstar, which does not seem to come naturally to him. Instead, the offense becomes simplified to back-cuts and open 3s off of DHOs or kickouts.
I forget where I heard this, but this summer I heard someone talk about how the elite role players in the league are guys who have more talent than their role requires. Think Derrick White, Aaron Gordon, etc. These are guys who can perform their role (defend, rebound, move the ball, score when opportune) effortlessly because it is a simplified version of what they are capable of. And because they are more skilled than what is required of them, when a play breaks down they are able to rise to the occasion and do the things that are not usually required of them (get a tough bucket, dish for an easy look, etc.) – thus exceeding expectations.
Keegan seems like he might be one of those guys, both in skill and disposition. Maybe not an All-NBA caliber talent, but a guy who fits so seamlessly onto any roster that he is remarkably valuable nonetheless. The Denver Nuggets do not need Aaron Gordon to be the second or third option on offense, nor do the Celtics need Derrick White to be – and both the team and the players are all the better for it.
Yup. As I read the article and then the comments my first thought was an Aaron Gordon type of role. The difference is, Keegan has an outside shot. It’s a chance for him to be a true 3 and D specialist. I’m not banking on him being the next Shawn Marion or Andre Kirilenko on D, but an Aaron Gordon with range is great fucking asset to have as your 4th option on offense.
Yep. This is going to be one of those years where looking at Keegan primary stats aren’t going to remotely tell the story.
He’s going to probably average 16/6 a night, but it’s going to be the advanced metrics where Keegan is going to take a leap this season and jump off the page.
A combination of a third year jump, and taking just a bit of responsibility off his shoulders is going to do wonders for his game and his confidence.
And if DDR begins to decline as his contract goes on, Keegan is going to be right there at that point to pick up the slack.
If they stay healthy, it’s really hard to see this team not cracking the 50-win barrier this season. (Though, like Jack, I’d really like to see at least one more backcourt player with some height added before the season starts…)
I’ve only ever owned two jerseys. A #32 Orlando Magic Shaq jersey when I was a kid and a Keegan jersey from last year.
Is it October yet?
Had you not said Orlando I would have asked for you to be banned from this website. Hahahaha
October is one week away…and yet the season still seems far away.
On the court: With reduced pressure on Keegan to score more, Keegan’s gonna score more.
Off the court: New Pizza Guy?
He would have some big shoes to fill. Ben McLemore was the quintessential Pizza Guy, imo.
Malik Monk has already accepted that “honor”!
https://www.nrn.com/fast-casual/pizza-guys-announces-sacramento-basketball-star-malik-monk-their-new-pizza-guy
Thats amazing. I hadn’t seen that. Gonna definitely order some pizzas this season because I already know Malik’s commercials will be hilarious.
Badge Legend