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30Q: Can Keon Ellis repeat last season’s success?

Ellis' ascension was a highlight of last season, can he carry over his success into the new year?
By | 122 Comments | Sep 18, 2024

Mar 7, 2024; Sacramento, California, USA; Sacramento Kings guard Keon Ellis (23) reacts after the Kings defeated the San Antonio Spurs at the Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

One of the best parts of the 2023-24 Kings season was the emergence of Keon Ellis. Ellis started the season as a depth piece on a two-way contract, and ended the season the team’s starting shooting guard in must-win play-in games. Ellis’ leap forward was spurred by some injuries, but also by Ellis seizing opportunities and playing well whenever he had an opportunity. I firmly believe he should be the starting shooting guard as we enter the new season, so this question is not meant as a criticism or to cast doubt on Keon, but when we think about the big questions facing the Kings this year, it’s worth wondering if Keon Ellis can continue to play at the same level.

Despite modest averages for the season overall, Ellis had impressive numbers as his minutes increased, and especially as he became a starter. In 21 games started, Ellis averaged 8.8 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.7 steals, and shot 40.4% from 3 on 4.5 attempts per game. It was a luxury having a player who was able to contribute across multiple categories, space the floor, and play tenacious defense.

Luckily, the numbers suggest Ellis can continue to succeed. We can look at the whole of Keon’s minutes in the NBA, and if we look at them on a Per 36 minutes basis they are remarkably consistent:

2022-23, 71 minutes:  12.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.5 steals, 50% from 3 on 6.1 attempts
2023-24, 978 minutes: 11.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.9 steals, 41.7% from 3 on 6.2 attempts

Even if we break down the 2023-24 season on a Per 36 minute basis, Keon was still completely consistent:

Starter, 558 minutes: 11.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.3 steals, 40.4% from 3 on 6.1 attempts
Bench, 421 minutes: 10.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.4 steals, 43.2% from 3 on 6.3 attempts

What we see is that across two seasons, with dramatically different roles and playing time, and even across the entirety of last season before and after Ellis became a starter, he remains the same player, only the minutes have changed. There’s every reason to remain optimistic and confident in what Keon Ellis will do for the Kings, no matter what his role is next season.

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Hobby916
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September 18, 2024 12:41 pm

I sure hope so. He can be the low usage 3pt shooter that the offense needs with Fox, Sabonis, DeRozan, and Monk need, while focusing on defense against the opponents better guard/wing each night.

murraytant
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September 18, 2024 2:16 pm
Reply to  Hobby916

What has been consistent for him is his defensive effort. That’s natural and not coachable. And he has improved since his college days.
Offense- less certain but he has, as pointed out, been consistent. He is quick w enough to get some breakaway lay-ups and does hit the 3. His 3’s are less contested than others but with the Kings lineup that will stay the same- teams will go off of him all the time.
In SL he did work on ball handling, getting to the rim and a mid range game with a floater. Some progress but a work in progress. He is pretty shifty around the hoop and quick.
Last year he was reluctant to shoot at times. I think that will continue- he has to decide to shoot when Keegan, Fox, Monk and DDR are on the floor. Let it fly!
His value is guarding the top guard on the opponent. This frees Fox to guard #2 and take more chances.
He may actually play better with worse numbers due to the addition of DDR.

Hobby916
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September 18, 2024 2:20 pm
Reply to  murraytant

I think he is a pretty damn good fit with Fox, Murray, Sabonis, DeRozan

RobHessing
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September 18, 2024 12:48 pm

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catterj
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September 18, 2024 1:04 pm

I believe he will start, but the rotations will work out such that he receives fewer minutes than Monk. Being a starter, he may have to subsist on even fewer FGA than last year (as will all the 23-24 starters) due to the addition of DeRozan.

Hopefully, he can still stick his few 3PA at a good percentage. With Fox, DeRozan, Keegan, and Sabonis, and Monk coming off the bench, we don’t need another volume scorer. We do need a player that can guard the better of the opposing 1/2, allowing Fox to cover the lesser offensive player between the two. Said player being able to demand a defender at the three-point line is great.

Hopefully, he can continue to be a solid 3&D player, a great player to complete a starting lineup.

Jack
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September 18, 2024 1:44 pm
Reply to  catterj

I think he can. Don’t forget Keegan taking the better wing or forward. IMO Fox will contribute more on defense than last year.

Minimus
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September 18, 2024 1:57 pm
Reply to  catterj

He may start but the bulk of the minutes will go to Monk. So this means Ellis needs to be a role player that plays defense. If he makes a few shots that is great but do not waste the scoring ability of the roster trying to run an offense through Ellis.

Hobby916
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September 18, 2024 2:14 pm
Reply to  Minimus

I expect his role to be that of someone who will be left open and be opportunistic shots will come to him, and he needs to hit them. If they run offensive plays for him instead of Fox, Sabonis, Keegan, DeRozan, Monk, then he is either killing it, or the offense is having major issues and they are turning to Ellis as the answer.

Just stand around the arc, get a a kick out shot, and play good defense.

Sara Janelle Trampe
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September 18, 2024 4:32 pm
Reply to  Hobby916

If he shoots 3 for 5 from three point land he is doing great things for this team.

Hobby916
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September 19, 2024 8:40 am

That would be wonderful.

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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September 18, 2024 8:26 pm
Reply to  Minimus

In the year Bobby Jackson won 6MOY (02-03) he nearly doubled the point production per game of Doug Christie (15-9).

Doug Christie, averaging 9,4,4, while shooting 39% from 3 on 7 FGA, averaged 34 MPG. Bobby Jackson, averaging 15,3,3 while shooting 38% from 3 on 12FGA, averaged 28 MPG.

Monk may or may not get more minutes than Keon, but it may not be at Keon’s expense. Sometimes fit is better than production and last I checked…defense wins titles.

Last edited 25 days ago by Adamsite
BuiltToSpill
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September 19, 2024 7:46 am
Reply to  Minimus

do not waste the scoring ability of the roster trying to run an offense through Ellis

This is the type of comment that a non-serious person makes. It’s not even a concern in the slightest. Get a new schtick, SaraMarvin.

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 10:11 am
Reply to  BuiltToSpill

I see that Minimus is on a basketball forum talking about basketball and you are on a basketball forum talking about Minimus.

What do you think about something basketball related?

Is Ellis the next world champion defender?

I hope he is and think he can be.

BuiltToSpill
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September 19, 2024 11:56 am
Reply to  Ihskay

I would just echo what the article and other posters here have said. I think Ellis is a stellar find as an undrafted player. For his production, his contract is incredible. As long as he stays healthy, he will be one of the most underpaid players in the league.

I expect him to become an elite defender in the upcoming seasons but his summer league performance did leave me a little concerned about his ability to defend without fouling.

World champion defender? That phrase tells me the Kings are winning the Finals, so…uh…I’ll go with no. But I think he’s got the potential to be All-NBA good.

But the key thing with Ellis – something that others here have mentioned – is his astonishing fit with the starting lineup. He knows his role, he elevates the team’s defense, he doesn’t force his game, and he’s an outstanding 3P shooter. And as the article points out, he’s consistent, game after game.

To summarize, he’s a perfect fit as a starter and any arguments to the contrary are dubious and never backed with data. He’s clearly the love child of Bobby Jackson and Doug Christie.

But seriously, we’ve talked this subject to death all offseason. I’m tired of all the offseason jibber jabber and the endless knocks on Keon. He’s the 3 and D player we’ve been dying for, end of story. At this point, two years in, he’s one of the best undrafted free agents the Kings have ever signed, until the next Ellis hopefully takes that title.

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 12:02 pm
Reply to  BuiltToSpill

Who is knocking on Keon? Do you have data to suggest he can go from sub par summer league to All NBA? How has been when playing with Derozan in the starting lineup?

I like him and hope he is the one that gets us the ring. Be super cool if we get Giles back to play at his side while they march through the playoffs.

BuiltToSpill
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September 19, 2024 3:17 pm
Reply to  Ihskay

Giles? I’m in the “no, thank you” camp there.

There is a person who posts here under several different logins who incessantly drags on Keon and begs for him to be traded. To be honest, your somewhat antagonistic line of questioning and instantaneously responding to every post reminds me of that person. But I’ll play along for now.

I’ll share two data points to support my theory that he will become an elite defender.

First, his defensive rating of 109.0 puts him at 38th among players with at least 15 mpg. It’s an impressive feat, considering the sporadic minutes he receives and the fact that he’s a second year player. It’s also impressive because individual defensive rating is particularly skewed by the team’s defensive rating. The players above him are largely on team that are at the top of the ranks for team defense, like Minnesota and Boston.

Second, the eye test says he’s damn good and on the road to elite. If you watch enough basketball, you can tell the difference between Buddy Hield and Keon Ellis.

Finally, reading is fundamental. I didn’t say he had a sub par summer league. What I said, in effect, was that he got called for a lot of fouls in summer league. In my opinion, he had an excellent showing in summer league.

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 3:48 pm
Reply to  BuiltToSpill

Good to know you are the regulator of personalities on this site. You have expertise in that this is most likely your third or fourth reincarnation based on your personal attacks aimed at mythical users that when real also used fake names just like you. Statistically Keon is a stud amongst the studs of basketball but he rarely put together 15 minutes on the floor. That is an injustice in my opinion. Using the eye test I thought he was trash in the summer league but that is no matter because the summer league is trash basketball. Surprised to see you compare Hield to Ellis. That is like comparing a sea gull to an owl.

BuiltToSpill
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September 19, 2024 3:55 pm
Reply to  Ihskay

What are your hobbies, aside from an obsession with Keon Ellis?

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 4:28 pm
Reply to  BuiltToSpill

What makes you think Keon Ellis is an obsession? He is a great signing by Vivek and his crew after so many misses. I like the Kings and in some ways they are my hobby. I spend countless hours outdoors and travelling.

Are you upset by something?

When you want to talk about the Kings and basketball I am game bud! Enjoy the season and watch Keon soar to new heights!

BuiltToSpill
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September 19, 2024 4:33 pm
Reply to  Ihskay

So this persona pretends to love Keon. Got it. I’m done with this nonsense for a while. See you on the flippity flip.

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 4:37 pm
Reply to  BuiltToSpill

Thank you for being done and I look forward to the flippity flip? Hopefully we can mix some Kings and basketball talk in here. Derozan has a cool book on mental health. I am going to read it and it is probably something many people should read.

Minimus
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September 18, 2024 1:55 pm

Ellis’s impressive numbers as a starter are truly average NBA numbers. If success is Ellis once again being a consistently average NBA player the challenge is not that difficult.

Is Ellis a consistent average NBA player?

Hopefully he is. The bar is not that high.

murraytant
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September 18, 2024 2:19 pm
Reply to  Minimus

yes, average NBA numbers on offense but better than average on defense.
The key though is fit. The other 4 are all above average on offense. He provides balance.

Hobby916
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September 18, 2024 2:30 pm
Reply to  murraytant

Fit is key, like you said. The best 5 players on the court that synergize well.

Minimus
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September 18, 2024 2:33 pm
Reply to  murraytant

Is he really better than average on defense?

A player on the Kings roster that puts any real focus on defense stands out. He can play defense but nobody fears him.

Jman1949
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September 18, 2024 2:48 pm
Reply to  Minimus

I hope Steph continues not to fear him!

Minimus
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September 18, 2024 2:57 pm
Reply to  Jman1949

Good game. Highly doubt Steph fears him or anyone else within two hundred miles of the G1.

andy_sims
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September 18, 2024 3:10 pm
Reply to  Minimus

Christ, you’re boring, Bags. And I mean in the literal sense, proceeding laboriously at the same thing, day after day after day. Such a dumb hill to die on.

It is impossible to read your comments in anything other than a flat monotone.

Hobby916
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September 18, 2024 3:30 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

I agree.

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Ihskay
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September 18, 2024 4:28 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

everyone else with multiple names after getting kicked has at least figured out how to pretend to be something different.

Jman1949
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September 18, 2024 3:34 pm
Reply to  Minimus

As noted, I hope that continues.

Ihskay
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September 18, 2024 4:29 pm
Reply to  Jman1949

Yes! it will continue. it all starts with three posessions at a time and turns into dominance.

Ihskay
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September 18, 2024 4:27 pm
Reply to  Minimus

He beat Steph a few times accept it and rejoice in it.

Sara Janelle Trampe
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September 18, 2024 4:33 pm
Reply to  Jman1949

Please don’t show the video of Steph putting up 40+ on the kAngZ.

Jman1949
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September 18, 2024 5:09 pm

OK, I won’t

murraytant
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September 18, 2024 6:47 pm
Reply to  Minimus

yes he is far better than average on D

BuiltToSpill
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September 19, 2024 7:53 am
Reply to  Minimus

Is he really better than average on defense?

When teachers say “there’s no such thing as a dumb question”, they’re being kind to their students. The reality is that there actually is such a thing as a dumb question.

Last year, he was the best King by Defensive Rating and second in Net Rating. You could have looked that up.

Or…and hear me out on this…you could simply watch him play in a Kings uniform.

Last edited 25 days ago by BuiltToSpill
Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 9:50 am
Reply to  BuiltToSpill

Are you you or someone else pretending to be you?

Who are you talking about?

King Ellis?

BuiltToSpill
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September 19, 2024 3:27 pm
Reply to  Ihskay

Well, I am a fan of the band Built to Spill and I’ve only ever had a single login here. My name isn’t actually BuiltToSpill, if that’s what you’re asking.

The line of questioning feels like it’s coming from someone who’s trying to deflect from their own issues…

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 4:08 pm
Reply to  BuiltToSpill

My issue is trying to figure out if you are talking about Ellis or all of the imaginary voices with imaginary names. Built to Spill was a great band. Saw many of their shows. Good to meet another fan. Whenever a new name pops up does it upset you? I am just another fictitious name here same as you. Love to talk basketball and the Kings.

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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September 19, 2024 8:02 pm
Reply to  Ihskay

Built to Spill aren’t a “was.” They are playing Harlow’s next week.

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 9:21 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Really?! I need to go! Life got busy with travel, family, and stuff. I stopped going to shows for a while. More responsibilities and all.

RobHessing
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September 19, 2024 11:08 am
Reply to  Minimus

He is far better than average when you look at the roster that he is on, and that is really what we’re taking into consideration here. Is he a better defender than Caruso? No. But Caruso is not on the roster, so what’s the point?

The yardstick is a combination of who is the best player baseline to baseline, coupled with who is the best fit with the core four starters (Sabonis, Murray, DeRozan, Fox). Monk is a bit of a wonky fit due to his usage (25.9% to Ellis’ 12.4) and the team is better served with him as a bench spark. Healthy, effective Huerter would be an alternative, and he does board a little better than Ellis, and is longer. But Ellis seems to have a pretty good edge when it comes to lateral quickness and filling passing lanes. And with the arrival of DeRozan, Huerter’s volume as a shooter (13 shots per 36 compared to 8.5 for Ellis) is not nearly as important. If Ellis can convert when left open, that is really all you need from him offensively.

The only real question seems to be whether what we saw from Ellis last season was fad or fashion. Relatively speaking, it was a sample size that was on the smaller size. But when I factor in where this kid came from (undrafted) and how hard he has had to work to get and stay here, it would not surprise me at all to see him come into camp and slam the door shut on the starting job competition.

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 11:44 am
Reply to  RobHessing

I love the randomness of bringing Caruso into the conversation out of the ether! Not at all related to anything in the article or discussion but really a fun leap. I agree that Keon can be good. He can go from nothing to starter. It is that easy. Play a few good games when two key players are out and you get your chance to shine. Is Caruso a player you like to talk about so you inserted him in the mix?

RobHessing
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September 19, 2024 11:47 am
Reply to  Ihskay

The inclusion of Caruso was a response to:
Is he really better than average on defense?

With all of the response packed in between that comment and mine, I can see why there would be some confusion.

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 11:51 am
Reply to  RobHessing

Caruso is the bar for average on defense. We all have our own standards so now that makes sense. Ellis might be the bar for optimum level defense if he gets to play this year. We will see what Mike Brown does with the new lineups with Derozan in the mix and Barnes gone.

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 12:23 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

Read all the in between and never saw Caruso. Still love randomness and the search for the connection. I think it makes sense though. Caruso is what Keon can be if he plays.

RobHessing
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September 19, 2024 12:38 pm
Reply to  Ihskay

K,,,

The question was whether Ellis was better than average on defense. My response is that he is not at the level of Caruso, a 1st and 2nd team all defense honoree. But Ellis is a plus defender when compared to the Kings roster, and that this is what needs to be considered when comparing and contrasting Ellis to other Kings options at the shooting guard position.

Apologies for confusing you. I thought it was pretty straight forward, but I obviously missed the mark.

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 1:07 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

I love Ellis and think he is probably one of the top ten defenders in the Western conference but has been unjustly left on the bench too long.

So you think he is an average defender when compared to the other players on the Kings roster which makes him an under average defender because they do not play defense when compared to the NBA. None of the Kings including Ellis as good as Caruso.

RobHessing
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September 19, 2024 1:14 pm
Reply to  Ihskay

Reading: It’s fundamental.

He is far better than average when you look at the roster that he is on, and that is really what we’re taking into consideration here.

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 1:26 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

Got it. Cannot compare him to the NBA but must compare him to his own team which is below average defensively therefore he is above average on a below average team comparison. Caruso is the level beyond the Kings roster. I don’t think you give him enough credit by saying he is only above average when compared to below average players. Keon is top ten in the Western Conference in my opinion.

Last edited 24 days ago by Ihskay
RobHessing
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September 19, 2024 2:09 pm
Reply to  Ihskay

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Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 2:15 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

I read very well and that is what you wrote. Keon has to be compared to his own team. His own team is defensively bad without question. Keon compared to his own team, which is without question bad, is above average. Caruso somehow came into the mix because he is first or second All NBA which is far superior to the entire team that Keon is compared to. Writing is also fundamental.

RobHessing
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September 19, 2024 2:41 pm
Reply to  Ihskay

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Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 3:02 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

There are two of you that use the same .gif instead of words. I guess I need to up my .gif game.

andy_sims
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September 19, 2024 3:45 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

Off topic: I read the word “fundamental,” and it suggests that there should be the word “fundament,” which I have never heard used once in my life. So I looked it up.

I recommend highly.

Jack
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September 19, 2024 6:46 pm
Reply to  Ihskay

Keon is already good and he is already a starter.

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 9:24 pm
Reply to  Jack

He is starting opening night!? I am stoked! He is the man! Who gave you the starting line up before training camp has even started?

Jack
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September 20, 2024 6:53 am
Reply to  Ihskay

i’ll get back to you opening night.

Ihskay
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September 20, 2024 7:07 am
Reply to  Jack

So you don’t know if he is a starter? I was hoping that has been settled already and you had some inside connection that speaks to you in the night.

Hobby916
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September 18, 2024 3:25 pm
Reply to  Minimus

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jwalker1395
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September 19, 2024 1:23 am
Reply to  Minimus

He is an All-Defense caliber player that puts up consistently solid numbers in all other categories. That is NOT an average player. In fact, it’s one of the most valuable role players in the league.

Sara Janelle Trampe
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September 18, 2024 4:31 pm

If Keon succeeds we succeed. Go Keon!

ArcoThunder
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September 18, 2024 7:43 pm

To answer the question: Yes

The thing with Ellis is that at this point in his NBA career, on this team, he knows exactly what his role is. The best part is, he knows he can fulfill that role by just being himself. No one is asking him to do more than what he does (half of which comes absolutely natural for him, DEFENSE).

The organization and fans want Sabonis to try to stretch the floor a bit more by taking more 3’s and making them, they want him to shoot the elbow jumper as though he is Chris Webber and protect the rim like Mutumbo.

The organization and fans want Fox to be everything and more. Drive to the hoop more, create contact and get to the line, be a 90% free throw shooter, play elite defense, be a 40% 3pt shooter, create for his teammates to the tune of at least 6 assists a night and become a more vocal leader.

The organization and fans want DeRozan to fit in while also asserting himself, be a better 3pt shooter and play better defense.

The organization and fans want Spock to be more assertive on offense, develop a deadly mid range game, be a 40%+ 3pt shooter, rebound at a higher rate, protect the rim better and become one of the best defensive forwards in the league.

The organization and fans want Monk to be a better defender and eliminate his occasional erratic play.

The organization and fans want Keon Ellis to be Keon Ellis.

Adamsite
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September 18, 2024 8:30 pm

If he does the Kings will be a very deep and explosive team. I’d go as far to say that the Kings will make the playoffs if Keon is the real deal. Monte may also be in the running for GM of the year as well. Still, health of the roster dictates all.

Jack
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September 19, 2024 7:11 am
Reply to  Adamsite

My biggest concern is the health of Sabonis. If, heaven forbid, he is out for an extended time we have no good backup. Len and sometimes Lyles would be our backups. They would help but not long term. Monte needs to address this before training camp. I came up with 3 candidates that would address the backup center position as well as a backup at power forward which was my second concern. The 3 were Isiah Stewart, Wendell Carter Jr. and Zach Collins. After comparisons and careful consideration IMO Stewart would be #1.
Here is an example on how to get him. Trade Lyles, McDaniels and Colby Jones and a #1 pick. The #1 pick is the kicker. Huerter stays per most people want and Stewart backs up Sabonis and Murray.

Adamsite
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September 19, 2024 7:28 am
Reply to  Jack

I think that goes for any team, Jack. If Embiid or Jokic go down for an extended amount of time their teams suffer tremendously. It’s virtually impossible to replace that kind of production, even if you got a Stewart, Carter Jr, or Collins. No Sabonis means no playoffs, so I’m not all that concerned with who backs him up.

Hobby916
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September 19, 2024 8:44 am
Reply to  Adamsite

When Sabonis gets in foul trouble, that is when I get a little concerned about his backup. I think they can get away with Len/Lyles/Robinson in those games. Adding DeRozan helps in those games. Gives the offense another guy that can make things happen. Barnes was unable to do that.

Maximus
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September 19, 2024 9:00 am
Reply to  Hobby916

They actually won the the minutes Sabonis was off court.

https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612758/onoffcourt-summary?SeasonType=Regular%20Season&dir=D&sort=DIFF_NET_RATING

When Sabonis was on, team was +0.8. When he was off, team was +4.0.
Fox’s improved 3pt and defense makes him very versatile across various lineups.

Still they need a credible back up center, just to demolish opponents’ back up centers when Sabonis goes to the bench.

catterj
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September 19, 2024 10:02 am
Reply to  Maximus

Wow, that’s an eye-popping stat. Thanks for that.

RobHessing
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September 19, 2024 11:13 am
Reply to  Maximus

This is weird, as it does not jibe with the net rating or VORP that you find on basketball reference, which shows Sabonis as the most irreplaceable player on the roster by a pretty vast margin.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAC/2024.html

Maximus
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September 19, 2024 11:25 am
Reply to  RobHessing

VORP has to be calculated. Not sure what formula they use. Not sure if they even update that formula since it was created.
It is not weird. I think VORP formula is heavily based on raw as well as efficiency stat.

On the other hand, the NBA net rating really is just based on team plus minus normalized to 100 possession. So this is direct team impact stat.

RobHessing
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September 19, 2024 11:31 am
Reply to  Maximus

Right, and when you look at bballref, Sabonis has a net rating of +15 when you look at his O (127) and D (112).

The eyeball test tells me that this team can put a patch on a Fox absence with guys like Monk and Ellis. Is it pristine? Far from it. But there is really no alternative other than completely revamping the offense if Sabonis goes down, and there is zero benefit defensively to him being on the shelf.

Mileage varies, and all that.

Maximus
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September 19, 2024 1:29 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

And Fox has an O of 113, which does not make sense at all. And then you really have to dig deeper into how they get to those number.

To me, it looks like the O rating is based on the player’s TS% instead of the team performance. Which really emphasize what I said that a lot of basketball reference stats (VORP, BMP, ORTG, DRTG are based on individual stats instead of team performance.

I usually use
https://dunksandthrees.com/epmhttps://dunksandthrees.com/epm

and

https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/nba-estimated-raptor-player-ratings

for team impact stats

Cleaning the glass is also really good with lineup analysis.

NBA.com stat is tremendous if you want to analyze a specific area.

Adamsite
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September 19, 2024 11:31 am
Reply to  RobHessing

Those numbers really are weird. Anyone looking at the nba stats page would assume Alex Len should be getting 30+ minutes a game over Sabonis, but we all know that isn’t true.

RobHessing
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September 19, 2024 12:14 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Yep. He also has a box plus/minus of +6.5. Fox is next best at +2.2.

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 12:24 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

If anyone uses the per 36 for a starting line up creator that team will lose. I did it in fantasy league once and it was horrible.

Maximus
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September 19, 2024 2:31 pm
Reply to  Ihskay

Lol, stat is never wrong. Only the one who wields it.

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 3:51 pm
Reply to  Maximus

Stat is never wrong. Who is stat? Who are you debating?

Maximus
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September 19, 2024 1:34 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Are you talking about the Min on court and off court?

The right column is Min on court which is all that you probably need. Min off court is redundant.

Last edited 24 days ago by Maximus
Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 1:39 pm
Reply to  Maximus

There is basketball and then there are stats. The two do not directly correlate.

Maximus
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September 19, 2024 2:28 pm
Reply to  Ihskay

When you compete at the highest level, you will need any advantage you can get. Stat is just a tool and you will need to learn how to use it.

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 2:59 pm
Reply to  Maximus

Stats are a tool on the basketball court? I have never heard that before. Based on that Keon is not the starter because statistically Huerter and Monk have played more basketball in the NBA and scored more points, picked up more rebounds, and so on.

I take offense to that and highly disagree.

Maximus
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September 19, 2024 3:35 pm
Reply to  Ihskay

As I said, you would need to learn how to use it.

As for Keon, I recommend this video for you

It’s made by Kings film room, who’s is very knowledgeable about the Kings and basketball in general.

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 3:53 pm
Reply to  Maximus

I can use statistics. Pretty good at it actually. It goes far beyond numbers and decimals. Most get lost in useless statistics that actually disprove what they are trying to point out because they do not understand the statistics and what they mean. The real problem is reality vs. statistics in sports.

Maximus
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September 19, 2024 4:23 pm
Reply to  Ihskay

Most get lost in useless statistics that actually disprove what they are trying to point out because they do not understand the statistics and what they mean

Is this why you never post any stat?

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 4:45 pm
Reply to  Maximus

Is this a statistics competition? What is stat? Like most people I follow the game. Some statistics and mostly watching athletes compete. Statistics do not do a good job of telling the story of competition. Statistically speaking Ellis should have never been on this roster. He was an undrafted free agent. As a human competitor he earned his way into the starting line up in my opinion. Statistics are a component of basketball. If I were to post statistics only (is that what you mean by stat?) then so much reality is ignored. Some enjoy copying and pasting random numbers from a Google search. Not my thing.

Statistically Ellis is boring. In reality as a competitor and a driven human Ellis is great story for this team. That is why there is so much discussion about him.

Last edited 24 days ago by Ihskay
Maximus
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September 19, 2024 5:02 pm
Reply to  Ihskay

Watch the youtube I recommend. There are some excellent statistic in there.

I am amused why you like Monk so much. Why don’t you tell me what is so good about him? Anything, statistics or eyeball observation.

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 9:31 pm
Reply to  Maximus

He competes and plays with passion. That is the eye test. Statistically he is ok. He has not played enough minutes to establish who he is. He definitely has not played enough whole games to reveal statistically what he is as a starter. His grit, determination, and raw talent are not represented in a statistic.

Lecture someone else on what to watch. You enjoy it and that is great for you.

Maximus
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September 19, 2024 11:27 pm
Reply to  Ihskay

He has not played enough minutes to establish who he is. He definitely has not played enough whole games to reveal statistically what he is as a starter. His grit, determination, and raw talent are not represented in a statistic.

Lol, this is even more apt description of Keon than Malik.

Ihskay
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September 20, 2024 7:10 am
Reply to  Maximus

Lol? I do not see where you are going with this? You must have some “stat”.

Maximus
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September 19, 2024 3:54 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Ah I understand what you mean now.

It means Len is really good in his role or the lineups that include him is really good. But the lineups that include him is a limited number.

In the end, Lens case a small sample size. Sabonis though is a fairly large sample size across multiple lineups.

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 4:02 pm
Reply to  Maximus

Per 36 is trash because of this. Stats merge with reality quickly in sports.

UpgradedToQuestionable
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September 19, 2024 9:10 am
Reply to  Hobby916

Good point. Injuries are a sure fire way of losing playing time, but so are fouls. I thought an underappreciated improvement in Domas game last season, which truly was an amazing season when you sit down and look at it, so let’s say it is an underappreciated aspect of an underappreciated season – is his lowering his per game foul stat from 3.6 fpg (6th in the League) 2022-23 to 3.0 fpg (13th in the League) last season. Interestingly, if you look at his last full season in Indiana (2020-21) he was at 3.3 fpg – The Ox is a bruiser – who knew?

The next King in the higher fouls per game statistics; Keegan Murray has been in the top 50 (or so) and was at 2.6 his rookie season to 2.7 last regular season.

Maximus
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September 19, 2024 9:16 am
Reply to  Jack

Isiah Stewart, Wendell Carter Jr. and Zach Collins

I don’t think their teams have any incentive to trade them. The Pistons and the Spurs are actually trying to win. The Magic does not have to trade one of the bigs now or even this year.

The one guy that I think will be available by the trade deadline and also a good fit is Larry Nance Jr. He is expiring so probably McDaniels, Colby Jones and a 2nd pick would do.

Jack
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September 19, 2024 10:00 am
Reply to  Maximus

Trade doesn’t work. If you trade either one you would have to include Lyles. In case of the Pistons they at one time wanted to trade Stewart. They also want first round picks. Still might work.

Sara Janelle Trampe
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September 19, 2024 10:17 am
Reply to  Jack

I love you Jack!

Please trade McDaniels and all of the players named Jones for Jokic.

Maximus
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September 19, 2024 10:41 am
Reply to  Jack

You are right. Also need to include either Len or Robinson to make it work. (Len+McDaniels+Jones+2nd pick)

I don’t see any reason to trade Lyles for any of those guys. Lyles is a back-up 4. Those guys are tweener 5.

Last edited 24 days ago by Maximus
Jack
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September 19, 2024 7:00 pm
Reply to  Maximus

Stewart, Collins and Carter have all played power forward and would be good backup for Murray.The Pistons really need a stretch 3 shooter. Lyles fits that bill.

murraytant
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September 19, 2024 2:22 pm
Reply to  Jack

what about the trade exceptions Kings got in the Raptors trade(dump)?

catterj
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September 19, 2024 10:07 am
Reply to  Jack

As you and Adam are saying, if Sabonis gets a long-term injury, the Kings are done, but that is in no way my biggest concern. Sabonis is an iron man. He played half or more of a season with a broken thumb. He’s certainly young enough to most likely stay healthy. *Knock on a big redwood in Tall Trees Grove*

Also, I doubt Monte makes a trade at this point in the offseason. Same goes for the rest of the GMs. There might be a few, but generally at this point teams have assembled their rosters and are going to see how they pan out before trading anyone. Trade season generally starts on December 15th anyway.

Sara Janelle Trampe
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September 19, 2024 10:18 am
Reply to  catterj

If he does get hurt Jack trades a future third round pick for another All Star three days before the playoffs start and we are all good.

murraytant
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September 19, 2024 2:19 pm
Reply to  Jack

I like the idea of Stewart and he might be available but Lyles is the back up 3/4 and if he goes there is no one in that spot since you trade Jalen as well.
I certainly don’t mind giving up Jones and Jalen but not Lyles. And Huerter is the other option- but then giving up solid shooting.
Could Stewart be gotten with Jones, Jalen and a #1?
O I am looking at the Mavs trades- got Washington, Gafford and klank and did not give up much- Green + Hardaway + picks and ?

Jack
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September 19, 2024 7:06 pm
Reply to  murraytant

Huerter for Steward would work but I was trying to keep Huerter. If we could get Steward he would also backup Murray plus be the backup to Sabonis. You kill 2 birds well not kill but a backup for two important starters. To me Stewart is much better than Lyles.

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 1:21 pm

I am most concerned with how does Vivek keep Ellis here as the most under paid player in NBA history after his already established success is obvious to the world beyond this fandom?

Vivek is a bad ass for getting Keon and I hope he can keep him.

Adamsite
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September 19, 2024 1:29 pm
Reply to  Ihskay

comment image

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 1:35 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

How does he keep Ellis when his contract up? He has one more year after this one. Does he give him a big deal as an extension at the end of this year to keep him?

Adamsite
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September 19, 2024 1:40 pm
Reply to  Ihskay

Please tell me you know who the GM of the Kings is.

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 1:47 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Monte Mcnair who works for Vivek who saved this team for Sacramento. Vivek has historically corrupted every decision this team has made since he purchased this team. It was either him or his amazingly talented daughter that gave Monte permission to sign Ellis. How else would he end up on this team?

His contract is a team option next year so does he give him a big extension this year to lock him up for his career?

Last edited 24 days ago by Ihskay
Adamsite
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September 19, 2024 2:02 pm
Reply to  Ihskay

comment image

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 2:03 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Is that not Monte and Vivek?

Daydreamer
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September 19, 2024 3:43 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

ABB = ShaneKC = Sara Janelle Trampe = Minimus = Ihskay? If so, weird.

BuiltToSpill
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September 19, 2024 3:49 pm
Reply to  Daydreamer

It’s J.D. Vance weird. I knew that a thread on the one player ABB hates more than Bagley would bring out the crazy, but literally 1/3rd of the posts on this page across three personas is beyond the pale. If they were a family member, I would quietly suggest they seek professional help. This is not a well adjusted human being, unfortunately, and I feel sorry for them.

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 3:56 pm
Reply to  BuiltToSpill

Is this a forum for the Sacramento Kings and basketball or strange conspiracy theories and personal attacks on fictional people hiding behind fictional names in a basketball chat forum? I might be in the wrong place as a basketball fan that loves the Kings.

How does Vance even come into the conversation?

Jack
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September 19, 2024 7:09 pm
Reply to  Ihskay

Let’s stay with the Kings and keep politics out of this.

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 9:32 pm
Reply to  Jack

I agree! What about the multiple personality tin foil hat conspiracy stuff?

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 3:00 pm
Reply to  Greg

Hopefully they get the extension sorted out quickly if Ellis actually does pan out to be everything I think he can be.

andy_sims
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September 19, 2024 4:19 pm
Reply to  Greg

I could see Ellis’ career following along the lines of PatBev. It’s rare for guys picked in the second round or undrafted to ever get huge deals. A guy like Lou Williams, as good a scorer as any in his prime, never made more than eight million in a season.

Keeping Ellis when that time comes should be very workable. Unless he has the kind of season that put him in conversations about the all-star game, I’m hoping that Keon can stick around Sacramento a while on a reasonable contract.

BuiltToSpill
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September 19, 2024 4:22 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

I always like your perspective, Andy. I’ve had Beverly on the brain re: Keon for a while now, too.

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 4:52 pm
Reply to  BuiltToSpill

Take Pat Bev out of Israel and put him in Kings jersey!

I do think he is an amazing ambassador for the game and Israel is lucky to have him.

Ihskay
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September 19, 2024 4:51 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

I hope they take care of him very well, when he earns it, so that when his second deal comes to him he does not feel stuck and taken advantage of. Pat Bev did a great job of steering his own career and determining his own destiny instead of the typical NBA salary structure owning him.

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