Let’s first be clear, Luke Walton and the players on the Kings roster will not be tanking. Walton has no incentive to lose games and, considering the speculation among fans as to whether he can even save his job, he actively has incentive to do just the opposite. Similarly, the Kings players are going to try to win every game. There’s no reason for any NBA player to be worried about the franchise’s ping pong balls. The players should do their best.
But what about the front office?
Sam Amick recently said that the Kings are not operating this season with the goal of making the playoffs. But despite that, there is still the question of whether or not the Kings are actually tanking.
The Kings could be doing a full-on tank, but that seems unlikely and isn’t what Amick or anyone else is suggesting. The Kings have a pillar in De’Aaron Fox, and several other young pieces such as Tyrese Haliburton and Marvin Bagley. There’s not a pressing needs to completely start over.
The Kings could be doing a mini-tank, which seems the most likely. This would mean focusing on regrouping the talent, avoiding bad contracts, and re-centering around Fox. This seems to be what the Kings are doing, and it’s why there’s speculation we could see the Kings begin to trade veteran players as the season continues.
But the other possibility is that the Kings aren’t tanking at all, but simply aren’t viewing this season as playoffs-or-bust. It could be that McNair is perfectly fine picking in the 6-10 range of the upcoming draft and simply waiting for the Kings to have the cap flexibility to sign impact free agents. While the playoffs may not be the priority, the Kings may not be actively working against the playoffs either.
We’re unlikely to know the answer to this question until we see the first big veteran (whether that’s Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes, Nemanja Bjelica, or Richaun Holmes) get traded, and even then it will depend on what we see the Kings get in return.
The good news (or awful news, depending on how you look at it) is that the Kings are likely not talented enough to make the playoffs this year. Not in the loaded Western Conference. Not unless the Kings were making bad trades to try to get over that hump no matter the long term ramifications. Luckily, we can feel confident based on their lack of spending in free agency that the Kings aren’t chasing win-now moves at the expense of the future.
To me, it’s seems clear they’re going all in on building around Fox. The bigger question may be, is Fox the type of player worth building around?
I don’t think he is. I think he is more of a Mike Conley type of player – which is still a very good (all-star in the right place) player. Hopefully the next two drafts yields us that talent.
I also hope Monte was right about giving Fox that massive extension and rebuilding around him.
I also hope Fox proves me wrong.
I’m not sure the Fox extension was Monte’s decision. It sounds like that decision had already been made by Ownership prior to Monte’s hiring. Who really knows though.
Here we are again, giving the GM a mulligan due to (possible) ownership interference.
Not saying you are wrong, but it is just not a good situation.
And assuming that Monte accepted such restrictions (the Walton one is confirmed), he does not deserve much slack for it, IMO. If he accepted an ownership decision to give Fox the max and he was the one to negotiate it, he also takes responsibility for it.
It could turn out to be the right decision, if we can find a franchise player to pair with Fox.
I would argue that the biggest reason other GM’s didn’t want the job is that they didn’t believe De’Aaron Fox was a franchise guy. Monte McNair did. And here you are.
I don’t think Luke Walton moved the needle as much as the narrative has led us to believe.
Don’t see how Monte gets a mulligan for the Fox extension. And, I suspect he wants Fox regardless.
I think ownership (Vivek especially) tends to respond to the whims of the fanbase, sometimes that coincides with what the GM wants and sometimes not.
Most likely he tops out around solid 2nd banana. Love to be wrong though!
Agreed. He’s shown he can be your second or third best player, but I’ve seen nothing to suggest he is a franchise player. I like the Mike Conley comp, I think that’s fair and realistic.
Would you consider Mike Conley the best player on those peak Grizzlies teams, or do you think it was Mark Gasol or Zach Randolph? I thought it was Conley. Regardless, I think you can get pretty high with Fox as your best player, but your 2a and 2b also need to be pretty good in that scenario.
I’d say Gasol was the best player on those teams.
I think that so much depends on the trade deadline and which players McNair can trade for younger assets. My feeling is that the Kings do better in the first half of the season than the second, after presumably Hield, Bjelly, and one or two others are gone. That’s when the real losing begins. I wish we’d tank harder, but if it comes out that way, I’ll be happy. Win or lose, the games will be fun to watch.
Monte’s building up our vet’s value so it is detrimental to go full tank mode at the start of the season. If we get decent picks or players in exchange for our guys then the tank can easily happen at the 2nd half of the season.
This is the perfect year to tank.
No fans in the area (limited fans later in the season) and a stellar upcoming draft class.
I imagine us going into next season with a strong young core completed by a new high 2021 draft pick. I think about Cade on this roster or any other of the highly-skilled wings. I can imagine how excited our fan base will be.
I want that feeling for myself, for the whole fan base, and the organization.
This is the year to build all of that and it starts with trading the vets, getting assets, and losing games for a high draft pick.
I wish for some signature wins, but I will be a little disappointed if we are within the 8-10 seed, have all of the vets past the deadline, and are clearly making a push.
I have a skybox for all 36 games, where I will sit alone screaming “Boooo-urns ” at the head coach.
Tanking and not making panicked deadline moves to add veterans are two different strategies in my view. Definitely don’t want to see them trade future assets in order to push for 8th seed or play-in seed. I’d also like to see them trade any veteran that they can get positive value for, even if the intention isn’t to bottom out. The next two drafts look like an outstanding opportunity to build a contender 4-5 years from now. Probably the kings only opportunity.
They’re tanking whether they are doing so intentionally or not, because the roster is one of the five worst in the league.
I think they are, but there is no market for Buddy/Barnes, and Bjelica was just picked up
i think Buddy starting over Hali is good for the tank anyways
Barnes may be around another year or two with his contract. But I can see a great market shaping for Buddy if he is shooting 40%+ from three, and his turnovers and his usage stay reasonable. If we get the Bjelica from last year, he will have a solid market, too. There may be a lot of moving parts this year with COVID. Maybe some teams get desperate for help? Hopefully not at the expense of player health though.
Barnes made more last year than Dominique Wilkins made in his whole spectacular, long career. Anybody else have trouble relating?
Barnes is a solid 3D wing who would be a great glue guy on any contender.
Absolutely, but how much is a contender willing to pay for a glue guy?
That is the rub with Barnes’ contract.
Ehhhh, Good “glue guys” usually offer more than Barnes’ 3-and-passable-D profile. Especially at $20MM per.
No team will pay that much for a Glue Guy ! Moving Barnes means taking a bad contract as part of any deal !
Barnes is a solid pro and all around good guy. I’d be quite happy if he sticks around through the end of the contract to be the veteran mentor for our young core.
Are the Kings tanking? Eh, who knows. I don’t really care, don’t think it matters. It matters where they end up in the 2021 draft, and that’s simply about one thing: Luck.
I would like to see forward incremental progress this season in area’s that need improvement from the main players, and I would like to see the young players progress (I’m not sure what that really means but I’ll know it if I see it).
But tanking? Eh, sure. Whatever. Tanking has become synonymous with playing badly for whatever reason. But sometimes teams are just bad. And I think this Kings team just isn’t very good on the defensive end. That will lose you a lot of games. Especially since the West is brutal, as you’ve pointed out Greg. It’s a pretty simple equation at the end of the day. Team with a lot of holes with a brutal schedules equates to lots of losses.
Simple.
I think they are tanking without needing to “try” to tank. This conference is loaded and after the Kings ship out a few guys, the losses will come naturally. Hopefully, the effort and cohesion is there.
Agreed. Just let the West do it’s number on the Kings. To me, it’s less “tank” and more “youth development.” Results in the wins/loss column should be the same. It’s all semantics.
Yes, I’d be perfectly happy if we lost 60 games, but a decent portion of those games were competitive ones where they just got out-experienced.
I don’t mean this the wrong way to Greg, but I have always disliked this framing.
I think the term “tanking” gets overused. To me tanking is trying to lose and means employing strategies that you would not use if there was no incentive to lose (i.e., the draft order was randomized).
I think we are a rebuilding team who is not defining our success this season by wins and losses. I think even if the draft order was random, we would try to shed big contracts for cap flexibility, pick up more future assets, and give more development time to our young players.
Now, doing all of those things means that we are likely to lose more games and we will not be competing for the 8th seed. But that is very different than intentionally losing in an effort to get more ping pong balls.
Adding to this. I do not expect McNair to employ “the process” in order to try to build this team.
Houston’s approach during his tenure there was all about building up assets and then trading them for better assets (basically a form of asset efficiency). I assume we will ditch our big contracts and gain cap flexibility. Given our young players additional run and try to build player’s value. And maybe tank the last 5-10 games of the season, if necessary.
But then I expect us to build upwards even next season and start performing better. I don’t see us intentionally trying to have a prolonged stretch of lottery appearances.
I seriously hope that the kings are not trying to tank. Now before you jump all over me, remember KANGZ…Seriously when has this team ever been successful at executing a plan in the past 14 years, if we try to tank.. One of a couple things will happen.
Yeah if we try to execute a plan that has us doing a tank or a mini tank it will get Kangzed..So I just hope that we play fun basketball and somehow because we’re doing and trying that the lottery balls bounce in our favor and we get one of the top five players from next years draft, oh and Dallas wants to trade Doncic for Bagley
It makes sense that McNair’s goal is to win games without mortgaging the future. Though the Kings’ “value” free agents (Whiteside, et al) will get minutes, as the season progresses, the young players’ minutes will eventually become greater than their contributions justifybut the goal won’t be to tank, it will be to further their development. The Kings won’t win a lot of games, and they might not get a top-5 pick (though that will be more likely than the playoffs). I’m totally fine with this approach.
To answer the question with a question, which people love, why are you hitting yourself?
I have a feeling this is the right answer. They are realists – not expecting to make the playoffs.
And maybe that’s fine, if the upcoming draft is as good (and deep) as I’m hearing. I probably would have preferred to deal Fox if they could pull a nice haul, move Barnes and Buddy for whatever they could get, and truly tank.
Whatever you want to call this, they are putting a ton of eggs in the De’Aaron Fox basket.
Assuming the Kings were able to draft Cade Cunningham, how would you feel about a Cunningham-Fox pairing?
What the heck is a Cade Cunningham?
A guy. According to a rumor.
big if true
But he would take the ball out of Foxes hands ! LOL and why Luka is not here ! Cade does seem to be far better than Fox at same stage !
I can never see the point in tanking. You trade away all your talented players over age 25, get a bunch of expiring contracts and late 1st and 2nd round draft picks, the team sucks for the year, games are unwatchable, then you get the #2 pick in the lottery and select Jabari Parker or a comparable player (let’s leave Marvin Bagley out of this for now), then, after two seasons when it’s obvious this guy isn’t the franchise, tank again.
Is that strategy really better than putting the best team on the floor night after night even if you only win 38 games? If the whole reason to tank is to get one draft pick you still might get Donovan Mitchell or Kawhi Leonard.
Play the best team you have and develop the young players while doing it. No reason trying to field a 1972 era college all star team (lots of would be college juniors and seniors) against NBA men.
Knicks currently have 11 former lottery picks on their top roster ! LOL
This team as currently constructed will not make the playoffs. Could they win 30 games? Sure. But, I am not sure that helps the team in the long term. I am hoping Hield, Holmes, Bjelica, and Whiteside are not here for the duration of the season. If they are, Kings will be mediocre, not terrible. Which is not an ideal place to be for next years draft. The most likely way this team will ever get a Star player, is through the draft. High end free agents are most likely not coming here. Fox will be a solid 20pt scorer. A difference maker, shows up against the elite teams, makes other players around him better? I haven’t seen it yet. This team really has no core. You are banking on Fox elevating his game. Bagley is still an unknown. But, one more injury and we’re talking NBA draft bust. Hield is not long for Sac. So, I don’t consider him part of the core.
I’m looking forward to the season, because it’s the first time in over a decade that we’re not having a bunch of subpar free agent signings held up by the FO as “proof” were trying to put together a team that attempts to make some noise in the west.
Perhaps this is off topic but it could play into tanking whether they want to or not. Both Holmes and Whiteside have only this year on their contracts. So likely they will be traded by the deadline or will sign with other teams in free agency next year. So what is Monte’s plan at the C position next year? Overpay an FA? Draft one?
…Trade for one? Appropriately pay for one in FA? Use cap space to acquire one that is perhaps a little overpaid but comes with an asset? Throw the max at Gobert?
If the last two years have taught us anything, it’s that you can get a perfectly reasonable center for almost nothing at the end of free agency.
Like, for example, the two guys NotAlwaysLogic is talking about losing.
The Kings are going to call an audible. In February.
Despite all the excitement watching Kyle Guy run around the scrubs in the 4Q, these two games have really shown their lack of talent, it’s glaring.
If they don’t get two superstars, then we’re just spinning our wheels. I personally don’t think Fox is a superstar, and I’m not seeing a core at all.
Hopefully Sacramento is more than just McNair’s GM career launching pad, but I have my doubts. I’m looking forward to seeing how he flips his assets, and I suppose we’ll have to wait until the deadline to find out the answer to Greg’s question.
Either way I’m not stressing about losses because I accepted that long ago.
EMBRACE THE TANK, YOU SNOWFLAKES!
It wouldn’t surprise me if McNair didn’t look to make any trades this season, unless it was an offer that would drastically improve the team going forward. He may want to play this season out with the current roster to maintain flexibility, then use the summer for trades, free agent signings, etc. to improve the Kings.
Hi everyone !
I’ve been a silent member of the community for about 10 years and finally decided to join the conversation. The fact that English is not my native language certainly influenced my silent mode, but as we say here “pardon my french” so hopefully you will pardon my english.
I really wanted to react about the tanking strategy as for my point of view, this is not in itself a winning formula. There are so many examples of misusing a high draft selection, failing to evaluate talent, failing to develop talent and instilling bad habits and the wrong culture.
How many contending teams today really had to tank to get to the point they are now ?
How many star players were grabbed late 1st rounds or even in the 2nd round and flourished because of the way some franchises evaluate talent and develop them properly ?
Well-run franchises only tank when they face severe injuries to their star players.
Even the 76ers and their famous “process” are not in a perfect situation now. They had so many great assets, picks, cap space… and they selected Simmons and Embiid, but also Fultz, Payton, Saric, Zhaire Smith, MCW, gave albatross contracts to Harris, failed to keep Butler and so many moves that proves that piling up assets is only good when you have the ability to turn them into value.
One last thing… even without high draft selections, there are a few gems playing in Europe that, in the right context, could turn into gold without needing 1st round picks to get them. And they won’t require a huge overpay to lure them to the NBA.
Again, it requires excellent player evaluation and the right envrionment to develop their skills.
Watch out for Campazzo in Denver : they didn’t need to have even a 2nd round pick to get him to a very affordable contract.
Players to watch in Europe : Gabriel Deck (Real Madrid), Nando DeColo, Shved, and a few others like Micic
Welcome to the club! Great first post. Look forward to seeing how some of those European players progress.
The Kings community is global !
Thanks to you guys we feel connected to the kings family in every part of the world. Keep up the good work.
In regards to tanking or not, my main point was : before assessing this question, the FO and the ownership should make sure that we create a real culture of developing talents, or a system in which we can improve the value of young players. Miami is the best example : look what they did with the likes of Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn, and in the less recent past with Tyler Johnson, Derrick Jones Jr, Whiteside, McGruder… they grabbed them for nothing and made them look as legit NBA players. That’s impressive and inspiring.
Kings should commit themselves to develop talents, hire the right player development coaches and reshape their scouting department. That is necessary if we don’t want to waste picks year after year
Welcome!
Welcome to hell. The upside is we got a lot of tree’s around here.
what up dog
I don’t understand this site’s continual desire to trade away Hield, Holmes, Barnes and Bjelica. While none are all-stars and a few on bad contracts, even by tanking, we won’t be able to get four players of this caliber in the draft or through free agency. If we’re drafting in the 6-10 range, there is no guarantee we will get a 20-point per night shooting guard and the others are far better than second round picks. It’s highly doubtful, regardless of how much cap space the Kings have, that they will do nothing more than be able to bring in a second-tier free agent as this isn’t exactly the destination for a top 50 player (except for the one we just let go for a bit more than the mid-level exemption for nothing). This team has lacked consistency at all levels, but particularly on the floor. Let these guys play together for more than one season and see if they can gel. They’re all still fairly young and I don’t see what would be wrong with taking a page from the Spurs and constantly brining in new players to eventually replace outgoing veterans. Fox shouldn’t be the best player on this team. He should be someone that makes everyone around him better if he deserves a max contract. Let’s see if he can do that before we start four rookies around him with a few journeymen.
It’s always good to avoid generalities. “this site” hasn’t expressed a collective desire to trade the players you mentioned. If you disagree with a specific take, then you can just reply to it.
Speaking of generalities on this site and not avoiding them, I will summarize a few concerns with Buddy and Harrison.
For Buddy specifically, there are some people who feel that he has been disrespectful towards the city of Sacramento. I am from Stockton, so that doesn’t bother me.
Both, Buddy (in 2 days) and Harrison are 28 years old. There are some people who feel that both will be on the downside of their NBA careers just as Fox is beginning to peak. It is less about getting rid of Buddy and Harrison than it is about acquiring assets/players who will be peaking around the same time that Fox is.
There are others who feel that Buddy and Harrison and Fox are overpaid, and that the Kings should try to trade both players if it can be done without giving up any significant assets to free up the cap space for the flexibility.
In my opinion, there is some merit to both of those points. I agree that both are overpaid now, but that the structure of their contracts will make them more palatable in each of the coming seasons. I personally would not trade them just to get rid of them though. The problem as that they are and are paid like they are the 2nd and 3rd best players on the team. If they are the 4th and 5th best player on your team, then you are probably in pretty good shape.
The most direct path that I see to this team being good in the somewhat immediate future is for Bagley to be healthy, and for the team to get a solid wing in the 2021 draft to push Buddy and Harrison down in the hierarchy. Those are both big ifs.
There may be a higher probability of success in trading Buddy and Harrison to push for the 23-24 season and beyond.
The GM would not mind getting his own guy in here, probably putting it mildly. He likely wants a reason to fire Walton, say a 5-20 record to start season. By contrast Walton is coaching for his NBA life. This coach is not about tanking, he’s about self-preservation.
The irony is that his plan to try to stick around will seal his demise. Unless he shocks, he is going to try to win with Bjelica and Joseph and Frank instead of Kyle Guy and Metu and Woodward. He is going to pin his prospects on retread vets past their prime who never that good in their prime.
What will not be an unintentional effort to tank amounts to the same end bc when you litter your rotation with weak links, low energy slugs, your outcome is predetermined, unless you have career nights from one of your top guys.
We can overcome our talent disparity with energy and synergy, like we saw in the last game in spurts, with cohesivness and pluckiness. If we go this route a lot more becomes possible and we could have a fun overachieving season.
We have the fastest guy in the NBA, a rookie who looks like he can special, and other guys who want to play fast and we have bigs that can complement our tempo by erasing plays at the rim and trigger running (Whiteside, Metu) . How can anyone say Bjelica and Joseph and Kaminsky fit this vision????
If you think they have a place, you have clouded vision, you are confused, you are overly inclusive to a fault. I think this coach is confused, maybe even personally troubled? Walton has a strange nature about him, I cant put my finger on it; cynical, jaded, self-defeated, self-entitled, instead of happy, optimistic and enthused to have one of the greatest jobs in the world.
He may be stewing about the loss of Bogi for nothing. He may be thinking his GM has set him up to fail. And there may be some truth to that. Regardless Waltons personality filters down to the team and informs his decisions. So will we tank? The man in charge feels to me like an unintentional tank commander.
Counting on a 19 year old to save the day via draft may be the most clouded vision ! Like I pointed out earlier the Knicks have 11 former lottery certain stars on their roster while Denver has 3 and Utah 2 ! Just sayin!
Fox got a max contract long before his actual play merited it and unless this season is a major improvement this may turn out to be the worst Kings signing in years ! Truly, hope to be wrong but but a lot hinges on health and improved leadership by Fox !
Guys were are going to the playoffs this year, so don’t worry about all this tanking stuff. Things are just going to work out.
I hope not. Tanking should not be allowed. I mean, Pete Rose is ineligible for the baseball hall of fame because gambling on a game while manager is against the integrity of the sport, but throwing basketball games is encouraged?
Move Joseph, Bjelica. Play to win. See where you are after 20 games and adjust accordingly. Need to know if Fox, Bagley, and Haliburton are our future.
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