The Sacramento Kings’ roller coaster of an offseason took a sharp turn up on Tuesday when the squad jumped up to the 4th pick in the 2022 NBA Draft Lottery. While Monte McNair and the Kings’ front office undoubtedly are celebrating, landing at #4 does present some real interesting debates, assuming that Orlando, Oklahoma City, and Houston select the consensus top 3 picks in Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith Jr., and Paolo Banchero. That would leave the Kings likely eyeing Jaden Ivey, Shaedon Sharpe, Keegan Murray, or *insert your favorite sleeper here*, and once again bring the debate between best player available vs. fit back to Sacramento.
Let’s dive into three quick thoughts now that the draft order is set.
1. Don’t overthink talent and pass for fit. Jaden Ivey is undoubtedly a complex fit with a team that already rosters De’Aaron Fox and Davion Mitchell. The 6’4 combo guard has exceptional offensive upside and some very real consistency concerns on defense. Selecting Ivey would put the Kings right back where they were a year ago, trying to balance a roster with a ton of guard talent and little patience to figure it out later. But in this humble draft evaluators’ opinion, the Kings cannot afford to pass on Ivey for a better fit – say, Sacramento’s favorite prospect Keegan Murray – if they decide they need to make the pick at #4.
If you’ve listened to any of the recent Kings Pulse podcasts I’ve done with Brenden Nunes (which includes a recent episode breaking down Ivey’s game), you may have heard us discuss tier-based rankings, but I’ll summarize here; I don’t subscribe to strict best player available drafting, as long as there isn’t a tier of difference between the considered players. In my evaluation, Keegan Murray is an exceptionally versatile player, a strong two-way forward whose composure and motor makes him seem a lock to be a starter for years. But I don’t consider Murray in the same tier of talent as Ivey. Ivey’s upside is absolutely special, and his offensive skillset and physical toolset (an elite combination of speed, explosiveness, force, and electric driving ability) give him a ceiling of “best player in the class” that I truly don’t see in Murray, or in any other collegiate prospect left on the board (even AJ Griffin, who I have ranked higher than Murray).
Do the Kings need any more messy roster fits right now? No. Would picking Murray be anywhere near as big a mistake as passing on Luka Doncic for ‘fit’ concerns was? Absolutely not – Ivey is nowhere near the sure-fire star that Luka was, and Murray is nowhere near as worryingly complex a prospect as Marvin Bagley was. But the Kings aren’t in a position to prioritize fit over a clear difference in talent; it’s been a reoccurring draft mistake that has set the Kings back over these 16 years.
If McNair disagrees on my evaluation and sees Murray (or whoever) as in the same tier of talent as Ivey, hats off to him and the Kings future. I think it would likely show as a mistake in a few years.
2. Wait to pull the trigger on any trades. I fully expect and want to see the Kings shop the pick around to possibly find a trade that brings in someone with Ivey’s talent level and who fits the Kings roster better – but above everything, I really want to see the Kings wait to see how the top 3 picks pan out before making any trades. It’s absolutely possible that one of Orlando, Oklahoma City, and Houston would have Ivey or Shaedon Sharpe at the top of their big boards, which would leave one of Smith Jr., Holmgren, or Banchero left at pick 4. If McNair goes all in on a trade before seeing where the chips fall, he could be handcuffing himself and miss out on a top-tier talent who does fit the Kings roster pretty damn well.
3. Does Monte McNair’s job situation impact his drafting? I wouldn’t be surprised if the #1 Google search in Sacramento on Tuesday was Shaedon Sharpe. Sharpe is the new international man of mystery, a top-ranked recruit in the high school class of 2022 who didn’t play a minute of collegiate basketball. He committed to Kentucky in November 2021 and joined the team in January 2022, and by all indications the plan was for him to play in the 2022-23 NCAA season. But Sharpe opted to jump right to the NBA instead, and his combination of size (6’6), explosiveness, and off-the-dribble shooting ability is certainly tantalizing, especially for a Kings team that desperately needs upside at the wings and forward spots.
But he hasn’t played competitively since last summer, and so NBA teams will have to evaluate him based on his high school tape (he played at Dream City Christian in Arizona), any Kentucky workouts and practices their scouts got to attend, and likely 1-on-none draft workouts in the upcoming month. Not the most complete evaluation process, unless you’ve been doing serious homework on Sharpe for years now.
I struggle to believe that Monte McNair, with one year left on his contract and his seat possibly warm, would take the draft’s riskiest lotto pick with his top offseason asset. That evaluation and decision would take some exceptional confidence on McNair’s part, and could either save or lose him his job. I have not watched full game film on Sharpe, so I’m not qualified to evaluate him or assess if he’d be a solid pick at #4. But I’m glad it wouldn’t be my job on the line if the Kings gamble on him.
Tuesday: Kings jump up in the lottery
Wednesday: B(atman) West graces us with his draft insight.
Thursday: KANGZ, probably
We all know the mandate McNair has to win and make that “Minnesota Leap,” so does that put extra pressure on him to move the pick for a win now type player? I ask because say a team like the Raptors wants to commit to the youth of Barnes and OG, really like a guy like Ivey or Sharpe, and is willing to part with Siakam. Does Monte listen to a #4 and Holmes package for Siakam?
That would make sense for Monte but not for the Kings long term, Siakam would likely leave after the 23-24 season.
At this point, I doubt the Raptors trade him. He was very good this season and it’s pretty fun to be able to trot out Barnes, OG, and Siakam together. If I were the Raptors and looking to trade one of them, it would OG. He’s the least skilled and most injury prone of the group.
I have thought the same thing. OG seems gettable from that team, who really need a dynamic scorer, and to somehow shore up rim protection.
ZOLTAR PREDICTS:
Sharpe definitely seems to have elite sit-out potential. A Ben Simmons ceiling in that area, possibly.
Why?
But by the time Sharpe is ready to play again, he’ll have matured from a young pup into a solid ready-to-contribute player!
We could use a BIG.
I get the feeling people don’t actually know the story on Sharpe’s status this year. He was a HS senior at the beginning of the year. He played 12 games in the 21-22 season for his HS team. He had enough credits to graduate, so he decided to graduate early. By doing that he qualified himself for the 2022 draft because he will have been out of college for a year before the 2022-23 NBA season starts having played his last HS game and graduated in October 2021. He was a 2022-23 UK recruit who, because he graduated early, joined UK in the middle of the season to work out and practice with the team.
Yeah we know that but has any of us seen enough of him to comment. I certainly haven’t.
You know enough to know that he didn’t just sit this year out for some mysterious reason.
He also isn’t nearly the mystery people are making him out to be. We have film and stats from his HS, EYBL, and FIBA play over the past couple years. It would be nice to have more info, but it isn’t like he just appeared on the court this year.
I’ll have to defer to the front office on Sharpe. I comment a lot on Koloko because I’ve seen his development first hand since 11th grade and coached against him when he played with Pippen, Martin and Manjon (recent transfer to Vanderbilt from UC Davis) in EYBL. I can’t comment on film which is typically embellished but you may have some first hand knowledge the rest of us don’t so that would be interesting to hear.
I saw this thrown around yesterday, getting a group opinion.
OKC calls, offers 2 for 4 and 2023 1st, Top 5 protected.
You taking that offer?
Yes, I would do that in a heartbeat.
Would you do #4 this year and 2023 top 1 protected for the #1 overall pick this year?
If the deal Dub_TC laid out is on the table? Probably not. I’d want Jabari Smith anyways and Chet Holmgren is going to go #1.
Fair enough! I’d be really excited about either Jabari or Chet, but I prefer Chet so that’s why I threw out the scenario for the #1 pick.
I was on the Magic’s SBnation site last night and there was a number of fans saying they hope Orlando trades back this year and pick up a first rounder for next year. I hope the Orlando GM agrees with them.
Holy shit, talk about spitting in the face of fortune.
If OKC makes that offer, I turn it down because it means there’s a pretty good chance they prefer Ivey, Sharpe, or even Murray over the consensus top 3. It’s a roll of the dice, but it just takes one of the top 3 teams to have different opinion than the “experts.” So I’d rather take my chances on whoever falls out of the consensus top 3, or at worst the best of the rest, plus next year’s pick, than a shot at Smith or Holmgren with no draft help or leverage coming next year.
Now who is that guy with the Gonzo avatar picture below?
Crandell is still around? lol
Kings leadership in action. Does anyone believe Monte hired her ? Actually, McNair is the true Assistant GM .
If I was a billionaire sports owner I would also want to groom one of my children to take over the franchise one day. Seems like a better option than just handing her the keys to the franchise without any prior experience.
Maybe she can start out as a Video Coordinator, rather than start out as Assistant GM?
She’s a daughter, not a son!
Hmmm…If he’s going to hand over the franchise to her, I think he could just hand it over to her. Meaning, owners don’t have to be GM’s. You can own a team without being involved in GM-type duties. So she doesn’t need to learn anything about GM’ing if she’s just going to be an owner.
So if he wanted to groom her as an owner, he could (and maybe already has) have her sit in on ownership meetings and things like that.
If she ever is the owner of the Kings/steward of Gondor then I will respect her a hell of a lot more for understanding “GM-type duties” because of her professional experiences learning the ropes in Stockton. You’re right though, as owner he could just flat out hand the franchise over to her. The fact that she is willing to, checks notes, go to Stockton to learn how to run a basketball organization is encouraging. Not sure how many billionaire heiresses would be willing to do that when they know that Daddy could just hand over the franchise.
I respect that she wants to learn more about basketball ops, but it seems like they gave her a job that’s too important for her lack of experience. After the owner of the Ottawa Senators died, I read that 1 of his daughters interned in their FO. Interning in the FO seems like it’d be reasonable as a 1st job in basketball ops.
I strongly doubt that McNair saw where this was going, and decided that it was a hill worth dying on. It’s a terrible look for the franchise, or any company, but I’d guess that there’s not a great deal of damage that daughter can do in Stockton. She likely has to run any actually important decisions through McNair, anyway.
Or Paul Johnson more likely.
..including a new Defensive Stance
I’m not really all that worked up over this. The Kings jumped three slots in the draft, and that is a very good thing.
This front office has had its wins and losses (and the team has its wins and losses and losses under them), but I give them good marks for the draft. Haliburton was a steal at #12, and Mitchell was at least a fair value pick in the here and now.
My top four would probably be Smith, Holmgren, Banchero, and Murray, but I would lose no sleep if Ivey or Sharpe (or anyone else) wound up being the pick at #4. I would defer to this front office on that.
It will also be interesting to see if one of the first three teams jumps at Sharpe and/or Ivey, which would drop at least one of the consensus top three to #4. Ad to that, Indy wants to move up. And I wonder if there is an opportunity on draft night if Detroit wants a specific guy at 4 that the Kings would be willing swap 4 (and Holmes/Holiday) for 5 and Jerami Grant.
There are options on the table that were not there yesterday morning. It will be fun entertain all of the possibilities, and to see what the organization eventually does.
Maybe Monte can inquire about Haliburton+6 for the Kings 4?
Depending on the players that are on the board at the time, the 6 and Jalen Smith might intrigue me.
Jalen Smith in an UFA.
Yeah, I saw him with team options via bbref, but his most recent option was not picked up, so UFA city for Jalen.
Yeah that’s not a bad idea. The Kings need to pull off on a smaller scale something like Boston did decades ago when they traded down with the Warriors and then drafted Kevin McKale while the Warriors moved up to get Joe Barry Carroll. Tall order.
Kevin McKale, legendary power greens forward for the Celts.
Joe Barely Cares! That was some kinda trade. Good lord those Warriors teams were a mess. Some fun players to watch, Purvis Short could get a bucket, but a messy organization.
Robert Parish was also part of that deal . All time theft by Red Auerbach .
Or absolute abject stupidity by Al Attles. But people forget, there was 2 stupid transactions there that got Boston that amazing haul.
The first was Detroit trading their first round pick in 1979 for Bob Lanier. Of all the horrific management decisions of that era (and there are so many, you wouldn’t recognize the modern NBA without them), that’s arguably a top 5 all time baddy. Why? The Pistons owner at the time, Bill Davidson, was pushing to improve the Pistons to make the playoffs.
Of course this led to Davidson hiring Jack McCloskey in 1980, who hired Chuck Daley (well in 1983), who drafted Isiah Thomas a year later, traded for Bill Laimbeer a year after that, and the rest is history.
But, the Pistons part of that equation gets lost because history remembers the Pistons in the 80s as a successful franchise on and off the court. As history should. But the fact is, the Celtics were never in a position to fleece the Warriors if they hadn’t gotten lucky and fleeced the Pistons in the first place.
I admittedly don’t pour over college hoops, so that said…based on stats and reading scouting notes about Ivey, he seems like he’s basically the second coming of De’Aaron Fox, with a good deal of overlapping strengths and weaknesses. I just can’t get excited by adding that to the roster, unless the idea is to move Fox. Which seems like an incredibly heavy lift at this point.
Ivey seems more like a Ja Morant LITE coming out of college. He’s more explosive and has a better motor than Fox. Fox seems to disappear or uninterested at times.
Yeah, I don’t think this comparison works. Ivey doesn’t have anything approaching the passing or facilitation skills of Morant. He also isn’t more explosive than Fox. He’s stronger. But not more explosive.
In general, Ivey is more of a SG and should be compared to other combo/shooting guards. He isn’t going to be a primary ball handler in the NBA. Or, if he IS a primary ball handler, his team isn’t going to be very good.
From what I read, and limited observations, he seems very similar to Fox in the sense that he plays faster than his mind can process. Morant on the other hand seems to process at the same speed he plays. So did Kidd. Then we look at defense and shooting and well … doesn’t seem to be in a top tier.
If you want to compare him to somebody in the NBA, I think you’re better off comparing him to combo guards like Rozier. And I wouldn’t agree that Fox plays faster than he can process. Fox’s ability to play at that pace is basically his one elite skill.
I mean court vision. peripheral vision. and keeping track of all the moving parts. I suppose it shows up more in soccer where a center midfielder has to see 360 degrees. In that sense I agree with your assessment of Ivey as more of a wing and I am absolutely baffled why Fox does not spend more time at the wing.
Those are the kind of conjectures I saw made about Donovan Mitchell and going further back Steph Curry. Certainly not implying Ivey will be one of those guys but I think that kind of analysis can get you in trouble trying to fit someone to a specific role.
You didn’t see those kinds of conjectures for those players from me.
You do however acknowledge those conjectures were made often and turned out to be big misses.
Sure, that kind of conjecture about the NBA role of a prospect is always made with every prospect. To some degree, that’s literally the definition of draft scouting and a big part of the job description of NBA scouts and FO personnel. Sometimes they’re wrong. Sometimes they’re right.
What McNair has to show is a path to improvement and a realistic plan to being championship competitive. I think putting out a young promising roster with growing pains is something the fans can accept and will appreciate. This win now expectation is not realistic and dangerous for the long term good of the franchise. I suspect the Kings will draft Murray and perhaps try to pick up a cheap veteran like Olidipo. Not what I would do but something I could live with. What I oppose is sacrificing our future draft capital for some temporary improvement. I think the Kings have to hit it big with both their first and second picks but hitting it big does not necessarily translate to significantly more wins immediately. I would clean house and build through the draft but I can live with a draft that yields Murray and Koloko and a roster with young exciting talent that supplements Fox and Sabonis and provides hope for the future. We don’t have that now but that’s what McNair has to produce this off-season. To me the big conundrum is what to do with Barnes. He should be moved but if you’re in this so called win now mode, can you really afford to move him?
I suppose the question is whether anyone the Kings can draft can be that third guy next to Fox & Sabonis, or if the pick + whomever would be adequate to acquire such a player. I wouldn’t object to sending out current players, plus up to two picks for the opportunity to add an all-star-level player. The details absolutely matter there, but I’d guess that the door is open for such a transaction.
Agree. I’m not for sacrificing future draft capital at this point.
I do expect Monte to trade down 1 or 2 slots to try and get some additional assets given that the top 3 prospects (Smith, Holmgren, Banchero) are all gone.
If Pistons fall in love with one of Sharpe, Ivey or Murray that they are willing to trade Grant or Bey and the 5th pick for the 4th, Barnes or Holmes then I would definitely go for it.
This will be an interesting 4 weeks leading up to the draft that’s for sure.
If Sharpe comes in for a workout, I’d love to see Davion volunteer to guard him.
It would answer a lot of questions.
I agree with the reasoning of drafting a player that you rank in a higher tier over fit (assuming there aren’t a gazillion mini-tiers). However, I’m not sure Ivey is in a higher tier.
Yep. I hope someone besides the Kings falls in love with Ivey.
Maybe its just me and I think I’m in the minority here, but I don’t see what other people are seeing in Murray as the 4th pick. If we trade down for him, pick up a starter level player then I’d be ok. I’m not seeing elite athleticism or pop and I have seen him struggle against elite competition. Is he going to struggle to defend and get his shot off at the NBA level? Just not seeing anything but a role player, rotational guy. At 4, I’d be hoping to get a potential pillar of the franchise type talent. If Monte scouts him and decides he’s the guy, I’d be fine with it as I trush Monte. I’m just not seeing what’s so special about Keegan.
From what I’ve been able to piece together, Murray has an exceptionally high floor, and could be a starter for many years in the NBA. The question is whether or not he can reach a higher level than that, given his relatively unexceptional athleticism, and that’s really the only thing keeping him out of the top four or five.
There are certainly plenty of players who manage to have terrific careers, despite having a less optimal kind of athleticism. Murray seems like a smart player who will be able to compensate, and could also be a real glue guy wherever he lands. I don’t think I’d raise much of a fuss if he’s taken by Sacramento at four, but would love it if the Kings could bounce down to five or six and still get him, depending on what/who comes back in the transaction.
If I were to rank the 6 guys we seem to be talking about most by floor, it would probably go:
Smith Jr.
Murray
Holmgren
Sharpe
Banchero
Ivey
By ceiling it would be:
Holmgren
Sharpe
Banchero
Smith Jr.
Murray
Ivey
Not a lot of quibbling to do here, although I’m not wholly convinced that with improved defense, and a steady growth curve, that Ivey won’t end up as the best player in the group.
Standard prospect disclaimer: Why yes, that is a lot of ifs!
Ivey has the athleticism, size, strength, and wingspan to be a good NBA defender. But when I watch him, the problem seems to be that he 1.) Doesn’t know where to be and 2.) Doesn’t give a shit enough to be there anyway. IQ and Motor don’t tend to be things that develop later, and they happen to be my two biggest Q’s for Ivey, which scares me too much to pick him.
If we’re going for the upside to be the third guy next to Fox and Sabonis, then I’d hope for Sharpe to impress in workouts. Otherwise, just take the guy you know is gonna be a long-time NBA player in Murray.
Are we sure Murray is a long time player? Not very athletic IMO. Getting some Marcus Fizer vibes from him.
I’m honestly not certain where these concerns about athleticism are coming from. He runs terrifically in transition and is a fairly explosive leaper. He’s not the most agile player on defense, but his length and ability to absorb contact more than makes up for it.
Yeah, to me he’s just as athletic John Collins.
With respect to you, I disagree completely. Not even close IMO.
He is also a good cutter to the basket, something we are missing in our offense.
Is he as athletic as Franz Wagner? Actual question, I don’t know
Wagner is actually a fairly good physical comparison for Murray. Wagner is better moving laterally, which makes him more capable on the perimeter whereas Keegan is a bit stronger when absorbing contact which makes him more suitable in the post. Both can switch defensively, though.
On offense, Murray is better in transition and has excellent footwork in the post, but Wagner is a better playmaker. Both can knock down the 3.
I’d expect Murray to be a better scorer over his career than Wagner, but Wagner to be a better passer and perimeter defender.
I don’t think Holmgren or Sharpe have a higher floor than Banchero. I’d probably say that Ivey has a higher ceiling than Murray (though I think the most likely outcome is that Murray will be the better player).
Who is better at 4 ?
Ivey’s shooting & playmaking aren’t good enough for me to see him as special. That’s esp. true if he plays next to Fox. It seems like that’d lead to poor spacing that’d hamper the effectiveness of Fox & Ivey.
I basically disagree with every single bit of this article 🤷♂️
When I look at Murray Sabonis, Barnes Fox and whoever starts at the to see a pretty solid rotation. You have very strong fundamentally gifted players at 3,4,and 5
not necessarily a flashy lineup but with the Sabonis’s play making and Mike Brown as a good veteran coach I like it. You might be able to trade Barnes and get a different three that’s a little bit more flashy. I also think someone would want to have Holmes on their team. I see a team that can get to the playoffs next year if they draft Murray and can make one decent trade for another consistent proven score hopefully it’s a three
Read somewhere that the Kings would trade Holmes and their #4 to the Knicks for Barrett
and Quickley and their #11. We could then pick up Eason or Sochen. Ant comments?
Starters would be Fox, Divincenso, Barrett, Collins and Sabonis.
I have a feeling that none of the top 3 (Chet, Jabari, and Banchero) will be accepting a pre-draft invite from the Kings. My logic is that if any of them fall out of the top 3, they know that the Kings will draft them at 4 regardless of seeing them or not.
Badge Legend