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NBA Draft Lottery: Schedule, Odds, and How to Watch

We've got all the details on this evening's NBA Draft Lottery.

Welcome, Kings fans, to the most wonderful time of the year! A traditional unlike any other! When the Sacramento Kings participate in the Draft Lottery for the 14th year in a row. For a few fleeting moments, we can enjoy some hope that the lottery gods will smile upon us. If they do, we get to spend a few months hoping the front office won't screw up the pick!

When: Thursday, August 20, 2020, 5:30 PM PT
How to watch: ESPN

The Kings will be represented by De'Aaron Fox, but the team representatives will be on virtual conference calls this year instead of all being in one room.

Odds:

The Sacramento Kings won the coin flip with New Orleans Pelicans, so the Kings will have the 12th best odds in the draft. Their odds for each pick are as follows (via Tankathon):

1st: 1.3%
2nd 1.4%
3rd: 1.6%
4th: 1.8%
12th: 86.1%
13th: 7.6%
14th: 0.1%

Due to the lottery structure the Kings cannot land anywhere in the pick 5-11 range.

If you'd like a refresher on how the lottery itself actually works, NBA.com has a detailed breakdown.

We will, of course, have a live thread up at the time of the lottery so we can suffer or celebrate together.

 

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MyNeighborTurturro
August 20, 2020 9:35 am

I’ll be channeling my inner-Pedro Cerrano today if anyone has a live chicken they’d like to donate. Praise Jobu!

ZillersCat
August 20, 2020 9:57 am

comment image
We got this?

Last edited 9 months ago by ZillersCat
Klam
Nostradumbass 18
Nostradumbass 19
Nostradumbass 18
Nostradumbass 19
August 20, 2020 9:39 am

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RORDOG
August 20, 2020 9:39 am

trying to figure out if I should get drunk for this one. I probably won’t. But who knows!

BestHyperboleEver
August 20, 2020 9:43 am
Reply to  RORDOG

What’s does “should” have to do with anything?

RORDOG
August 20, 2020 9:51 am

I mean you’re right. I got a solid buzz for the ’17 & ’18 draft and we moved up. I did not drink at all for the ’19 draft, and we all know what happened last year. We didn’t even get a dank pick in the first round. It’s like the lottery gods were saying

comment image?w=474&h=237

Last edited 9 months ago by RORDOG
Kosta
August 20, 2020 9:59 am
Reply to  RORDOG

What a perfect illustration of Vlade’s draft decision.

We shouldn’t be here today doing this. We should be in the playoffs with LD at the helm.

Just not very excited about doing this again this offseason.

andy_sims
August 20, 2020 10:08 am
Reply to  Kosta

Do you mean Lave Doerger? Or…

Because I really appreciate his strategy when playing the Lakers.

RORDOG
August 20, 2020 1:59 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

I think I’m going to try the drinking thing. A) the chit chat crap they do to extend the coverage for a full half hour is unbearable, and B) it’s for science. Would hate to be on my deathbed one day and wonder if drinking pleases the draft gods, and I didn’t use my power for good.

BestHyperboleEver
August 20, 2020 9:42 am

I already think this should be true. But if the Kings jump again, I don’t want to hear any “unlucky” comments for at least a decade.

andy_sims
August 20, 2020 9:44 am

What’s unlucky about grabbing the top pick in the worst talent class since players wore short shorts?

Otis
August 20, 2020 2:35 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

I feel an oddly familiar disturbance in the force.

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Last edited 9 months ago by Otis
andy_sims
August 20, 2020 9:43 am

We are absolutely jumping to #1 in this draft. We will take the best player, who someday will be a quality 8th man.

BestHyperboleEver
August 20, 2020 10:09 am
Reply to  andy_sims

But only on his 2nd contract and his 2nd or 3rd team.

Hozr
August 20, 2020 11:43 am
Reply to  andy_sims

So you’re saying he’ll be the best player on the roster? Score!!!

ZillersCat
August 20, 2020 9:54 am

Would taking Tillman at 12 look bad?

ZillersCat
August 20, 2020 10:02 am
Reply to  ZillersCat

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Last edited 9 months ago by ZillersCat
BestHyperboleEver
August 20, 2020 10:08 am
Reply to  ZillersCat

If we absolutely had to draft at 12 and couldn’t trade down, I would have no problem with taking Tillman.

I would like to think our new FO will be savvy enough to, if they are targeting Tillman, figure out if they can trade down for more assets and still take him.

RORDOG
August 20, 2020 10:27 am

If anyone has a weird desire to get your blood boiling today, then listen to James Ham on Deuce & Mo. He says the reason Vlade was fired is because of fan outrage on social media, and says it’s revisionist history to claim we all knew Doncic was going to be a superstar prior to the draft.

First of all, the fan outrage may have reached a crescendo during the bubble, but it’s because getting rid of Vlade was long overdue and that was the straw that broke the camel’s back. If it took ownership seeing a supportive fan base turn into a pitchfork wielding mob to finally get rid of Vlade, then the fans should be praised for exerting pressure, not criticized!

And if Ham actually thinks fans are rewriting history then I challenge him to read history. Go back and read the lottery/draft threads and the comment sections for any pre-draft post on StR and Reddit. We went from complete euphoria after the lottery to abject misery on draft night. That doesn’t happen because we thought we missed out on just a really good player.

He also got into the Bagley stuff, and how the fans are wrecking his confidence. I feel bad for the kid, but I’m not sure if he’d be treated much differently had any other franchise picked him with a high draft pick. I get that a lot of it is just misplaced frustration with Vlade, but that’s almost more reason to get rid of Vlade. At least now we can conceivably start to put the mistake behind us since the person responsible for the pick has been held accountable.

SPTSJUNKIE
August 20, 2020 10:33 am
Reply to  RORDOG

First, if fan outrage got Vlade fired – than while I am not sure if that’s the best way to run a franchise – GOOD. It was necessary. And for all hand-wringing from some people about “what good does it do to be upset and calling for Vlade to get fired,” it would be ironic if we had an impact. Especially if we do get a qualified FO and become a competitive team.

Second, lol, I think it’s fair to say that most people – STR / TKH, Kings’ Twitter, and myself included did not know that Doncic would be in legitimate MVP discussion as a second year player. But he was by far both the casual and obsessed fans had Doncic in their top 2. And social media went ballistic even before the official selection.

Kosta
August 20, 2020 12:47 pm
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

Fan outrage got Vlade fired, yet Walton’s job has been declared safe.

Did we not criticize Walton enough this season?

Vivek, surely you’ve seen that you yourself are also getting lots of criticism.

Last edited 9 months ago by Kosta
Otis
August 20, 2020 2:40 pm
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

Yeah, people were getting apoplectic over the Bagley rumors in the days leading up to the draft. Very few thought he’d be dumb enough to actually do it.

richie88
August 20, 2020 5:06 pm
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

I can’t say that I knew he’d be a legit MVP candidate in his 2nd season, but I’m not surprised given what I saw, read & heard before the draft. He seemed like he’d at least be a star & there aren’t many prospects that fit that description.

lutherRackley
August 20, 2020 10:37 am
Reply to  RORDOG

Well said Rordog.

Gregoryl
August 20, 2020 10:50 am
Reply to  RORDOG

From what you say, I’m not sure I could stomach this podcast…:

  1. Wow, 3 Kings employees giving their unbiased Kings opinions? Fascinating!
  2. If social chatter in August 2020 was the reason Vlade got fired…. where was that sort of fan listening 3 years ago??
  3. As you said, Doncic was the clear local, national (and apparently Kings ownership) favorite. Seriously, the one time that Vivek decides to back out of a draft decision is this one??
  4. I took MBIII at his word when he said he planned to be the MVP, sorry if he’s fallen a tad short of that so far….
RORDOG
August 20, 2020 11:26 am
Reply to  Gregoryl

Deuce & Mo are fine. Deuce was actually pushing back some on what Ham was saying. Mo just feels bad that Bagley has to endure the added BS of people @’ing him constantly calling him a bust. I agree fans should probably not direct criticism at Bagley. I just think Ham kinda conflates general fan frustration with the small minority that take it too far.

Gregoryl
August 20, 2020 11:34 am
Reply to  RORDOG

MB III brought this on himself. Since the draft, he has shown zero humility or lack of ego in his own abilities.

Hozr
August 20, 2020 11:54 am
Reply to  Gregoryl

I have never understood the criticism that MBIII openly stating his amibition to become the MVP. I vastly prefer that to WCS openly stating that his goal is to be paid.

BestHyperboleEver
August 20, 2020 12:05 pm
Reply to  Hozr

I don’t really care either way. Unless it’s overtly terrible (like Rondo’s homophobic slurs) or toxic to the team, I couldn’t care less what the players say. Produce in a way that helps the team win, and you can talk about just wanting to get paid all you want.

Otis
August 20, 2020 2:42 pm

What this guy said.
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RikSmits
August 20, 2020 11:09 am
Reply to  RORDOG

Blame the fans? Serious?

I can’t stand Ham anymore. This is asinine.

BestHyperboleEver
August 20, 2020 11:10 am
Reply to  RORDOG

The tough truth is, while all of the BS trolling he gets on social media is stupid and childish, if he can’t handle that he isn’t going to succeed in the NBA. These guys absolutely have to have borderline delusional levels of self confidence that is pretty much bulletproof. That was true before social media as well.

RORDOG
August 20, 2020 11:50 am

That’s basically what Deuce was saying. Social media is absolutely toxic, and I’m glad I didn’t have to deal with it at his age, but come on it almost makes me want to be like “our forefathers fought and died in the mud at Bagley’s age, but he can’t handle a little fan criticism?”.

NinjaFetus
August 20, 2020 1:11 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

Is Ham the new Peaches then? Maybe not that level yet, but company shill?

We all knew Luka would be great someday. I wasn’t posting yet on StR, but when I watched clips I had visions of Steve Nash in a way. Yes, an MVP at some point, but not by year 2. Just goes to show the incredible talent he has and the growth he can do with a well run organization.

Until MBIII can be on the floor for, oh, more than 13 games a season, he is a bust as a #2 pick. I want him to be a good player, I really do. But the reality is that he has a long way to go to win this fan base over. He had no control over how he came to this team and I think nearly all fans understand that, but until he can be on the floor and produce to some level that backs up his comments he will be doubted and criticized.

RORDOG
August 20, 2020 1:33 pm
Reply to  NinjaFetus

To a certain extent, I get why Ham’s takes typically toe the company line. I don’t think he’d last too long if he was super negative. What annoys me is he believes the fans are misinformed when they disagree with the company line. He doesn’t get angry like Peaches, but he does have a condescending way of talking that’s very Kayte-ish.

Otis
August 20, 2020 2:46 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

It’s amazing (and somewhat telling) that the key to success in Kings media is to only mildly criticize the team, but it’s acceptable to go after the fans.

It’s a hell of a business model.

Kosta
August 20, 2020 4:11 pm
Reply to  Otis

This.

SelecaoKOJ
August 20, 2020 3:11 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

Ham, Kayte, and Jones all work for the man. I don’t bother to listen to their takes on the Kings. It’s horribly biased, most of the time inaccurate, and their sense of reality is always misplaced. Frankly, it’s annoying. Esp, Ham.

Timmy_13
August 20, 2020 2:36 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

What’s funny is that when I was listening to his Kings podcast last week with Doug, it was hard for him to describe how bad the Bagley pick was but if you read between the lines of his comments, you could tell he was frustrated about the Bagley pick. Doug defended it on how Kings fans are impatient which ended up pretty much by being a non-answer answer and just moving on to how Bagley will be good in the future etc.

I feel like the echo chamber of the Kangz organization can even reach new heights. By drowning out even little talk of criticism. It’s insane.

Otis
August 20, 2020 2:39 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

jjham – multiple time All-Star in the early years of StR, journeyman small-market-franchise propagandist since.

Timmy_13
August 20, 2020 2:43 pm
Reply to  Otis

Reading StR and CK (w/ Ham as head) back then was a refreshing part of my day as a Kings fan.

I understand he has a family to feed but he fell really hard to the dark side.

RORDOG
August 20, 2020 2:51 pm
Reply to  Timmy_13

I remember the pod Ham and Bruskie did when they basically just ripped on the entire Pete D era. It was a thing of beauty.

RobHessing
August 20, 2020 10:47 am

Rantdumb thoughts:

I would love to see us move up, but only so that the pick would have more trade value. No one in this draft greatly enthuses me.

Would love to see the Kings draft Kira Lewis at 12-13. A natural backup to Fox that could also play alongside him. Would give the Kings the potential ability to play at an extreme up-tempo even when Fox is out.

I know nothing.

BestHyperboleEver
August 20, 2020 11:07 am
Reply to  RobHessing

I like Kira Lewis. And I could convince myself that selling high on Fox and resetting the rookie contract on your “lightning quick 6’3 PG” archetype by targeting Lewis could be a savvy move. But I don’t think: A) they could realistically play together. They’re both 1 position defenders (such as they are) and would likely get eaten up on that end. B) That the Kings should be focusing their lottery pick on drafting a guy you plan on being a back-up long term.

RobHessing
August 20, 2020 11:40 am

In today’s NBA there are plenty of “go small” opportunities to have multiple point guards on the floor. And both Fox and Lewis are long enough to defend a lot of NBA 2s.

That said, the drafting of Lewis would certainly ignite a lot of Fox trade conversation.

And 1 – Fox is a guy that you want playing full bore for roughly 32 minutes a night. That’s 16 minutes right there for a backup point guard. Now add in a compressed season, and you’re probably looking at a few nights off for Fox, and that does not take into account injury, which is more likely than not given his style of play. I think that the backup point guard could wind up being 6th-7th on the team in minutes, a primary core rotation player. Think back to B-Jax backing Bibby. Jackson was a critical component to the team’s success. Drafting at 12, I’m hard pressed to find a player that could have a larger impact.

PS – I know nothing.

BestHyperboleEver
August 20, 2020 12:02 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

I think that’s really well reasoned and makes a lot of sense. I’m still not into it. I don’t actually think either of them have any chance at defending non-PGs. Heck, I think they’re going to (and in Fox’s case are ready does) struggle to defend most PGs. They theoretically have the length for it, but both are comically skinny. IMO a guy like Kyle Lowry or Jevon Carter have a better chance of passably defending a 6’5 guy than Fox and Lewis do.

The bottom line is really that I think the player you’re describing isn’t really going to move the needle for the Kings. I think they should be more focused on guys that have a CHANCE to be Webber/Peja/Miller/Christie/Bibby level players than guys that will PROBABLY be a Bobby Jackson level player. And, of course, that’s looking at a ceiling outcome for Lewis as a backup.

WizsSox
August 20, 2020 4:56 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

I had this thought as well. Sure Lewis and Fox may not be able to guard bigger 2’s…but screw it, Kings can’t guard them as it is. Get back to what worked last year and just Run Run Run. Try to score 125 pts a game and track meet everyone. Seem like the future is to have 2 and hopefully 3 ball handlers on the floor. Would be a start.

andy_sims
August 20, 2020 11:57 am
Reply to  RobHessing

She sounds great.

RobHessing
August 20, 2020 12:08 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

Nameist.

Adamsite
Nostradumbass 14
Nostradumbass 14
August 20, 2020 12:59 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

I’d like to see the Kings move up because it just might tickle the fancy of a quality GM candidate out there. That being said, if the Kings do move up, they had better have a GM by the draft.

Keyan2016
August 20, 2020 11:08 am

With the luck that the Kings have I wouldn’t be surprised if they get a top 3 pick in this year’s draft and he turns out to be a dud and the 12th pick turns out to be a perennial all-star. Here is to positive thinking lol.

Last edited 9 months ago by Keyan2016
BestHyperboleEver
August 20, 2020 11:11 am
Reply to  Keyan2016

In that scenario, the Kings are lucky. They’re just also incompetent. Which IS consistent with what we’ve seen.

02kingsfan
August 20, 2020 11:17 am

I just think it would be funny (everything with this Kangz is funny at this point…..) if the kings somehow got the top pick and there is not a new GM in place in time for the draft so Vivek ends up making the pick….

jdwhit
August 20, 2020 11:21 am

The NBA League Office be like:

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SPTSJUNKIE
August 20, 2020 11:21 am

So I have started compiling the data and other variables for my annual draft model and given the lottery is tonight thought I would share some of the top prospects by key per 40 and other categories. If it’s not already clear, this is not my model or a prediction of success for anyone listed below.

But I thought it would be interesting to show as it can help get some discussion going about prospects and help people to see some less heralded prospects spike in certain places that makes them worth looking into more.

This is out of the top 94 prospects – have included players in various foreign leagues, though haven’t done any adjustment to their numbers to try to equate with US college numbers. I varied the number of people listed in each category in part based on interesting names.

I’ve bolded projected firstish round picks – though was pretty generous with that definition.

Points per 40 (good scorers tend to get over 20)
James Wiseman 34.3 (only 3 games)
Markus Howard 33.5
Yoeli Childs 30.8
Jay Scrubb 30.5 (JUCO)
Vernon Carey Jr. (28.6)

Steals per 40
Tyrese Haliburton 2.7 (googley eyes)
Leandro Bolmaro 2.7 (foreign league)
Trent Forrest 2.5
Devon Dotson 2.4
Paul Reed 2.4
Killian Hayes 2.3 (foreign league)

OBoards per 40
James Wiseman 7.5 (3 games)
Austin Wiley 6.7
Tyrique Jones 6.1
Freddie Gillespie 5.8
Omer Yurtseven 5.6

Three point % (minimum 3 attempts per game)
Aaron Nesmith 52%
Yoeli Childs 50%
Saddiq Bey 45%
Desmond Bane 45%
Kaleb Wesson 44%
Immanuel Quickley 44%
Tyrese Halliburton 43%

True Shooting %
James Wiseman 76% (3 games)
Udoka Azubuike 69%
Aaron Nesmith 69% (wowsers for a wing)
Obi Toppin 68%
Nick Richards 67%
Onyeka Okongwu 65%
Tyrese Haliburton 63%

O-Rating
James Wiseman 149.8
Killian Tillie 130.8
Sam Merrill 129.7
Nick Richards 127.8
Aaron Nesmith 127.8
Freddie Gillespie 127.7
Devin Vassell 126.9
Obi Toppin 125.3

D-Rating (lowest of course)
James Wiseman 80.8 (3 games)
Precious Achiuwa 82.5
Udoka Azubuike 82.9
Aleksej Pokusevski 84.5 (foreign league)
Mamadi Diakite 85.1
Freddie Gillespie 85.5
Tyler Bey 85.7

BPM (does not include players in foreign leagues – not tracked)
James Wiseman 18.0 (3 games)
Xavier Tillman 12.6
Udoka Azubuike 12.4
Obi Toppin 12.3
Jalen Smith 12.0
Killian Tillie 12.0
Malachi Flynn 11.7
Onyeka Okongwu 11.6
Tyrese Haliburton 11.6
Vernon Carey Jr. 11.3
Devon Dotson 11.3
Daniel Oturu 11.1

Highest FT% with 3 point% <= 33% (best chance to improve outside shooting)
Killian Hayes 87% (foreign league)
Kamar Baldwin 84%
Devon Dotson 82%
Tyrese Maxey 82%
Trent Forrest 82%

Stocks (Steals + Blocks) per 40
James Wiseman 5.7 (3 games)
Paul Reed 5.7
Aleksej Pokusevski 5.3 (foreign league)
Onyeka Okongwu 5.1
Freddie Gillespie 4.6

Points per terminal possession (points per anything that ends possession)
James Wiseman 1.4 (3 games)
Aaron Nesmith 1.2
Nick Richards 1.2
Obi Toppin 1.1
Jalen Smith 1.1
Onyeka Okongwu 1.0
Isaiah Stewart 1.0
Zeke Nnaji 1.0

Points produced per terminal possession (points per anything that ends possession)
James Wiseman 1.5 (3 games)
Tyrese Haliburton 1.4
Sam Merrill 1.4
Abdoulaye N’Doye 1.3
Malachi Flynn 1.3
Obi Toppin 1.3
Payton Pritchard 1.3
Killian Tillie 1.3
Aaron Nesmith 1.3
Killian Hayes 1.3 (foreign league)
Cassius Winston 1.3

HIGH: TOs produced per terminal possession (TO per anything that ends possession)
Leandro Bolmaro 0.21
Udoka Azubuike 0.19
Jaden McDaniels 0.18
Killian Hayes 0.17 (foreign league)
Trent Forrest 0.17
Ashton Hagans 0.16
Austin Wiley 0.16
Tyler Bey 0.16
Patrick Williams 0.16
Precious Achiuwa 0.15

LOW: TOs produced per terminal possession (TO per anything that ends possession)
Devin Vassell 0.06
Jordan Ford 0.07
James Wiseman 0.07 (3 games)
Killian Tillie 0.07
Sam Merrill 0.08
Ty-Shon Alexander 0.08
Malachi Flynn 0.08
Saddiq Bey 0.09
Aaron Nesmith 0.09

The last couple of metrics on terminal possessions is just an efficiency look at who is doing good things with their possessions. A/T is helpful for skill, especially when controlled by position – which I haven’t done yet. However, this can give a quick view that shows certain scorers as well who can get their points without being sloppy with the ball.

Again, none of this is to say a player is good or bad – but hopefully useful for some early discussion about players and maybe helps to identify some players not discussed as much who you may want to look into more.

Last edited 9 months ago by SPTSJUNKIE
BestHyperboleEver
August 20, 2020 11:25 am
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

Nice work.

RORDOG
August 20, 2020 11:53 am
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

Jay Scrubb? Sounds like he’ll fit right in on the Kings

BestHyperboleEver
August 20, 2020 12:31 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

I don’t know much about Jay Scrubb, but scrub jays are assholes.

RORDOG
August 20, 2020 12:34 pm

my cat hates them. They basically just fuck with her, and she’s ruthless bird killer usually.

Otis
August 20, 2020 2:55 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

They are some mean mf’ers.

SPTSJUNKIE
August 20, 2020 11:54 am
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

Since I realize this is a data dump – that some people will want a TL;DR for – here’s some quick takeaways from the data:

+ James Wiseman looks like an analytics beast on both sides of the ball – though he only played 3 games against an easier part of the schedule, so a lot like Kyrie a few years back – this should be taken with a grain of salt. That said, the impressive early stats and pedigree clearly make him worth looking into early on.

+ Tyrese Halliburton is likely going to be an analytics darling as models come out. He spikes in a lot of the key counting stats per 40 that tend to pop when the models are done and is also a hyper-efficient shooter / scorer.

+ Aaron Neismith can shoot, score, and take care of the ball.

+ Obi Topin is very efficient and excels at all aspects of offense for a big

+ Killian Hayes has some strong pros and cons statistically, but looks like he should become a good three point shooter over time. If we jump into the top 3, I imagine he’ll be a polarizing player.

+ Killian Trillie is a late first / second round prospect high on a lot of these lists and could do quite well in the models. Worth another look.

+ Devon Dotson has good applied athleticism numbers and looks like he should be able to shoot – worth a long look as those two skills alone can help you carve out a long career.

+ Aleksej Pokusevski is a foreign player that probably is not on everyone’s radar, but probably should be. From a skill and efficiency perspective he is really intriguing. Though when you see a picture of him and his wire thin frame, you might understand why he’s projected for the mid to late first.

Again, this isn’t a model or projection yet. Or even a scouting report. Those will come. But thought people might enjoy seeing some of the sausage-making and hopefully having some more names on their radar outside of the few really big ones.

Last edited 9 months ago by SPTSJUNKIE
Dirkula
August 20, 2020 12:16 pm
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

Couple of French dudes named Killian? That’s different… would make for some great Jerryisms!

SPTSJUNKIE
August 20, 2020 12:21 pm
Reply to  Dirkula

The Kings lineup is Killian it right now.

Adamsite
Nostradumbass 14
Nostradumbass 14
August 20, 2020 1:02 pm
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

Man, I would love to get Haliburton. He might even be my choice at #1.

BestHyperboleEver
August 20, 2020 1:05 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Obviously, they’re different players with different skill sets, but Haliburton kinda reminds me of Derrick White. Just good, smart, versatile basketball players that work in any system on any team.

Adamsite
Nostradumbass 14
Nostradumbass 14
August 20, 2020 1:31 pm

Yeah, I could see that, but I do think Haliburton has something that will make him better. I’d put money on him going top 5. I think he could be a great pairing with Fox in the backcourt. Both are willing passers and Haliburton has all the makings of being an elite defender who can shoot from 3.

I just hope that whoever has the opportunity draft him, the Kings had better be on the line to inquire about any possible trade. I’d dangle Buddy to move up in the top 5 to get him. That is how much I like him.

BestHyperboleEver
August 20, 2020 2:29 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Well, I should say I really like Derrick White and think he would be one of the top 3 or so players on the current Kings roster.

If that helps with the reference. If they were to draft Halliburton and he were as good as White, I would be happy with that.

Adamsite
Nostradumbass 14
Nostradumbass 14
August 20, 2020 2:30 pm

As would I.

WizsSox
August 20, 2020 5:05 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Does Buddy get you into the top 5? Buddy and the 12th? What team on a total rebuild wants Buddy at 20+ a year for the next 4 years?

More realistically is there any middling team that thinks Buddy can give them an extra step up that would give up a 12-low 20s pick for Buddy? What salary are we taking back?

I keep coming back to Al Horford and the Sixers. No I do not want Al Horford and his contract? He’s 27 mil a year for 3 years. Last year is partial guarantee. So Buddy’s contract is an extra year past Horford’s partial. I’m interested in Zhaire’s Smith’s progress this year in G league.

Horford, Zhaire Smith and Philly’s pick (22nd?) for Buddy? I have trouble coming up with a team (Philly needs shooting badly) and contracts for a trade to work. Two young picks and Zhaire Smith and Horford to provide a leadership and defense for 2 years even if off bench. It’s not great but…Thoughts?

Adamsite
Nostradumbass 14
Nostradumbass 14
August 20, 2020 5:22 pm
Reply to  WizsSox

All good questions. I don’t know if Buddy can the #12 can get you to move up if you really want someone in the top 5.

One team that might want to trade back, especially if they fall out of top 2, are the Warriors. I don’t think they area going to want a high priced first round pick that they aren’t too high on.

Wanna get crazy? How about Buddy and the #12 for Wiggins and their top 4 pick. It saves the Warriors money and gets the Kings into the top 4 if there is someone they really want.

CoreyBrewersD
August 20, 2020 6:51 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Not sure why Dubs would do this. Maybe Bags for the #2. They grabbed Russel and then ultimately Wiggins to hold a max slot. Buddy doesn’t fill a max slot or a player that puts them over the top. Dubs need a 3 and D veteran SF, backup point, and a big(that are a dime a dozen).

SPTSJUNKIE
August 20, 2020 2:11 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Yeah, he’s one of my early draft crushes. He plays a big rigid and isn’t a bit time shot creator – so I don’t really see him having a path to being a traditional, star player.

But he’s got a chance to be a top 50 type of RPM (or your favorite summary statistic) player for a long time. If we could trade either Buddy or Bogi (via S&T or signing and trading during the season) – Halliburton seems like he could be a great fit next to Fox.

He has the length and good enough lateral speed to be a good defender. And he’s probably not a primary ball handler, but he’d be a fantastic secondary ball handler next to Fox. He wouldn’t solve all of our problems, but he’d add another high IQ player to the roster and would make us a better, smarter team.

Adamsite
Nostradumbass 14
Nostradumbass 14
August 20, 2020 2:30 pm
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

To me the fact that he can shoot, defend, pass, and handle the ball, checks the important boxes for me.

BestHyperboleEver
August 20, 2020 2:35 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

It would be great if he showed more ability to create his own shot (he’s really mostly a spot up shooter at the moment), but yeah, the BBIQ and passing alone would be a great infusion.

Adamsite
Nostradumbass 14
Nostradumbass 14
August 20, 2020 2:43 pm

I think that is why I like him off the ball playing alongside Fox. That being said, if Walton can’t utilize Buddy as an off ball pure shooter, we should’t expect him to do so with Haliburton

SPTSJUNKIE
August 20, 2020 4:06 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Agreed – it’s why I have a hard time seeing him as a traditional star player. I don’t think he has the creation ability to be “the guy” and break down a lot of players 1:1.

Though, I think almost like a better Lonzo Ball (who can shoot) – his shooting and the ability to run a lot of P&R in the NBA will help. As a secondary ball handler who could be the primary ball handler when Fox is out of the lineup or 1A to Bogi’s (or a similar type of player’s) 1B – he would add an important dimension to our offense, while eventually helping our defense too.

andy_sims
August 20, 2020 12:04 pm
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

This is nice work, thank you.

As an aside, I know it’s de rigeur when grading college players, but why do they extrapolate using Per 40? The NBA plays 48 minute games, and stat-heads use Per 36 as a benchmark. Very few college players play the full 40 minutes, so why don’t people running numbers go with the same 75% figure, and grade Per 30?

I am ranting about this because there is nothing else going on in the world right now worthy of my considerable outrage.

BestHyperboleEver
August 20, 2020 12:10 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

The point of the per __ is to compare players to their cohort with numbers that are recognizable to us rubes. You COULD choose something that makes it consistent. But both are just ways to make per minute numbers somewhat resemble the 20ppg, 10rpg, 10apg, measuring sticks we’ve been trained to recognize throughout our lives.

Doing per 1Min would make the most sense, but we would have to re-set what we see as a reference number.

SPTSJUNKIE
August 20, 2020 12:20 pm

Bingo. I don’t know of any good reason why it’s per 40 other than that’s what some sites did and others followed suit.

Really, it’s just trying to normalize everyone to the same minutes as a comparison so that one player doesn’t look more impressive because they played an extra 10mpg. But as BHE said, it’s just easier for most people to contextualize 20 points per 40 than 0.5 points per minute.

That said, in some of the models I have done, while per 40 numbers tend to be more effective in the model, often mpg can pop as well. Basically, it’s useful to look at individual numbers on a normalized basis.

However, college coaches are not dumb. And in general, if a college coach is only giving a player 20mpg there’s a reason for it. Except on the most crowded of teams – coaches generally are not leaving talented, smart players who can help them win games on the bench.

BestHyperboleEver
August 20, 2020 12:16 pm
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

Meaningless point of accuracy:

Tillman, Bane and Flynn are probably projected in the 1st round at least as often as guys like Tillie, Bey, Winston, N’Doye, Nnaji, Stewart, Reed and Dotson.

I’m guessing you have a particular source you used for that reference.

SPTSJUNKIE
August 20, 2020 12:22 pm

Fair enough – I was eyeballing it. Probably could have cast an even wider net.

Was just trying to help some names stand out against some of the fringe prospects.

Adamsite
Nostradumbass 14
Nostradumbass 14
August 20, 2020 1:01 pm
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

Why does this get down votes?

RobHessing
August 20, 2020 1:31 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

TL/DR – Too Long, Downvote Reactively

SPTSJUNKIE
August 20, 2020 2:18 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

Lol

Otis
August 20, 2020 2:48 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

He really should have made a Fanpost.

Kosta
August 20, 2020 4:14 pm
Reply to  Otis

I hope TKH brings (back) the Fanpost.

SPTSJUNKIE
August 20, 2020 2:17 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

I just assume some people saw it as a long data dump that breaks up the flow of the thread.

As I work on the model, I want do to more like this with hopefully more and more insightful data. But I do appreciate the up and downvotes and feedback on how to help spur a productive conversation without being disruptive.

Can try doing some smaller data batches instead of a long list like this.

BestHyperboleEver
August 20, 2020 2:30 pm
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

I assume “downvoters gonna downvote.” I doubt it really has anything to do with the actual content of your comment.

Kosta
August 20, 2020 2:38 pm
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

Your comment was great, SPTSJUNKIE. Thanks for contributing to the discussion with the work you put in to all of that.

Last edited 9 months ago by Kosta
ScottyPop
August 20, 2020 1:37 pm
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

How the hell does a post this good get thumbs downed?

There isn’t even any opinionated stuff that someone could really disagree with.

Thanks for the excellent info sir.

SPTSJUNKIE
August 20, 2020 2:19 pm
Reply to  ScottyPop

Thank you – hope to post more as I get deeper into the modeling versus just doing a single model / scouting post like past years. But do want to be respectful of the threads and what the board wants. So thank you for the positive feedback.

Kosta
August 20, 2020 2:39 pm
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

You’ve always been respectful and a great member of this site and the previous one.

citykidd
rff
August 20, 2020 12:14 pm

Weak draft. If the pick isn’t in the top 3 re-sign Bogi, then trade Buddy plus the pick for a all star SF, PF, or center if there’s a deal like that out there.

WizsSox
August 20, 2020 5:12 pm
Reply to  rff

Who is trading their all Star SF, PF or center for Buddy and the 12 pick( in a weak draft as stated)? It’s fun to say these things, but they don’t just materialize bc we say them. Have a name in mind?

Now you might be able to get a former All star at a crappy contract for just Buddy…I’ve been looking about this and there doesn’t seem to be a lot of teams with interest, timeline match, matching contracts, assets, picks for a Buddy trade. I’ve seen online people say there would be suitors…but I don’t see many. Philly…Denver?

1951
August 20, 2020 12:33 pm

Maybe we can get Luka … I mean, lucky tonight!

RobHessing
August 20, 2020 12:41 pm
Reply to  1951

comment image

RORDOG
August 20, 2020 1:53 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

lookin like Miggs from Silence of the Lambs

andy_sims
August 20, 2020 2:00 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

Recd for jizz reference.

Kosta
August 20, 2020 2:40 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

I heard Vivek likes jizz bands.

ZillersCat
August 20, 2020 4:50 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

comment image

Last edited 9 months ago by ZillersCat
RORDOG
August 20, 2020 12:45 pm

I think the most Kangzy thing to happen would be for the Pelicans to jump into the top 4. That would bring things back into harmony after the Kings lost a coin flip with Chicago, but ended up getting the second pick due to having the right combination of ping pong balls.

jdwhit
August 20, 2020 1:20 pm

If we move up in the draft and have the opportunity to draft LaMelo Ball, we have the upside of LaVar trashing Luke Walton until we get a new coach!

Wonderchild
August 20, 2020 1:27 pm
Reply to  jdwhit

He’s certainly got the experience doing it.

CoreyBrewersD
August 20, 2020 9:03 pm
Reply to  jdwhit

Just Hire Lavar as an assistant GM. He will work for free if we draft De Angelo with a late 2nd rounder the ratings. +++

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