By the Numbers: 2026 NBA Draft Prospects

It’s been a while since I’ve truly done much of a deep dive into the NBA Draft, but it’s something I used to enjoy doing back for the old site.  In fact covering drafts and prospects is how I actually got into writing about the Kings as a hobby, and frankly, the Draft itself has probably been one of the more exciting parts of most Kings seasons over the last 20 years, even if the results themselves haven’t always panned out.

But I still love the Draft. The Draft is like NBA Christmas, full of wonder and hope that this prospect or the next will be the one that turns the team around.  I may be a bit more jaded than I used to be after getting a few too many lumps of coal over the years, but I’m still thoroughly invested and so I thought I’d dust off the old tables and go over some of the numbers for this latest group of prospects in what is widely considered a very strong and deep draft.  Numbers don’t tell the full story of course, but I’ve found over the years that they still paint a decent picture, and they’re also a good way to spot some intriguing players on the fringe that have certain numbers that pop out so that I can take a further look at later.

As such I’ve compiled the basic and advanced statistics for about 70 prospects in this draft (not every prospect but the ones that appeared on most of the big boards as potentially drafted), as well as their physical measurements from the combine. I used basketball-reference.com as my source and as such I didn’t include the data on any of the international prospects, although this year’s draft is a little lighter on those prospects compared to year’s past.  In fact, Karim Lopez is the only international player consistently projected in the first round.  I’ve embedded the tables below, but just in case you are having trouble reading them on the site or want to sort columns yourself, I’ve also included links to the google sheets themselves.  For the Basic and Advanced statistics, I’ve added a percentile gradient: red means low, white is average and green is high.  Any text with white font means that player is the worst of his peers in that category, while yellow text indicates they are the best.

Without further ado, let’s take a look at these numbers and then I’ll share some of my thoughts below.  Keep in mind that this is far from the kind of detailed, in depth analysis that front offices and even other fans/writers will perform, and any findings are just one man’s opinion.

Basic Stats

Link to Google Sheet itself

Advanced Stats

Link to Google Sheet itself

Physical Measurements

Link to Google Sheet itself

Lottery Thoughts

• I’m not sure there is any analytical model out there that wouldn’t have Cameron Boozer at #1. So it’s a little bit crazy to me that he’s not only not projected #1 in most mock drafts, but often instead at 3 or 4.  There’s basically nothing that Boozer does that is bad.  He’s an excellent and efficient scorer, able to draw a ton of free throws and also hit a good percentage from three (39.1%).  His offensive box plus minus is far and away the best of this class, and while he doesn’t block a ton of shots, he has a solid steal rate and defensive box plus minus as well.  That’s not to mention that he’s also an excellent rebounder and has the second highest assist rate of any non-guard in the draft.  If this were almost any other draft, Boozer would be the clear consensus #1 pick and I’m not convinced most analysts aren’t just overthinking this.
• Caleb Wilson isn’t that far behind Boozer in terms of advanced statistics.  He’s not quite as good of a passer (but still solid for a big man), is a better shot blocker, and doesn’t take nearly as many three point attempts but is still efficient with the shots he does take.  He’s also got about the same standing reach as Boozer but on a much slighter frame (Boozer has more than 40 pounds on him).  I can understand those who say Wilson could end up being better than Boozer, but I think he’s going to have to figure out how to become a passable shooter to truly excel in today’s NBA and right now he mostly operates near the rim offensively.
• AJ Dybantsa is widely considered to be the player that the Wizards will take #1 and he is clearly one of the best offensive players in this entire draft, plus he has excellent measurables for a modern NBA wing.  He still needs to work on his outside shot (just 33.1% from three in college) but he’s an excellent driver and gets to the line a ton. He’s also a willing passer with a 22.1% assist rate.  Dybantsa was the engine behind the entire BYU offense, as evidenced by his monster 33.9% usage rate.  It’s the other end of the floor where the numbers don’t look so good though.  For a player of his size to have such a low block rate is kind of crazy.  Kingston Flemings, who got so much flack from pundits for his lack of wingspan, actually has a higher block rate than Dybantsa.  Still, the talent and physical tools is palpable, and Dybantsa could end up being a game changer if he can develop on that end of the floor as well.
• I’m not going to spend too much time on Darryn Peterson other than to say that this guy is most definitely a shooting guard.  He had a pretty low assist rate and turnover rate, but also a super high usage.  That basically means that whenever he got the ball, he was looking to score.  To be fair to him, he’s pretty damn good at it, and would probably have looked even better had he not been dealing with various injuries throughout the season.  He also showcased some defensive chops with a solid steal rate, and better than average defensive box plus minus.
• Darius Acuff is atop a lot of personal Kings fan draft boards at 7, including mine, and it’s easy to see why. He’s an excellent scorer and shooter, with his 44% from three on nearly 6 attempts a game making him one of the best perimeter threats in the entire draft.  He was also a more than solid playmaker with a 32.2% assist rate and just a 10% turnover rate, which is impressive for someone who handled the ball as much as he did.  Of course on the other hand, Acuff might literally be the worst defender in the entire draft.  His defensive box plus minus of 0.7 is the worst of every prospect on this list.  He’s also among the bottom in rebound rate, steal rate and block rate.  While Acuff’s measurables show a player who has the size to at least be competitive as a defender, it’s hard to believe he’ll make a drastic leap on that end.  I still think he has the potential to be so good offensively that you take him anyway and figure out the rest later, but it’s definitely not something you can just ignore.
• Kingston Flemings isn’t quite as good offensively as Acuff or even Wagler, and you can see his tendency to favor the midrange in his advanced statistics: he has both a relatively low three point attempt rate and also a relatively low free throw rate, meaning he doesn’t drive as much to the basket.  He wasn’t a bad three point shooter by any means, making 38.7% of his attempts, but he did shoot just 2.9 attempts a game.  His assist and turnover rate were both pretty similar to Acuff, but it’s on the other end of the floor where he stands out.  Flemings has the third highest steal rate among all freshman, and his defensive box plus minus of 6 was tied with Cameron Boozer as the highest of any freshman as well as being the best among all guards in the draft.
• Keaton Wagler is another name often put around the Kings, and I was pleasantly surprised to see how good of a passer he was for a bigger guard.  However I’m still unsure on if he could passably play Point Guard at the next level or if he will simply be a Shooting Guard who can also make plays.  One thing I found surprising was his relatively high free throw rate which was among the top for guards in this class.  We’ve heard that Wagler went his entire season without making a single dunk which would seem to indicate an aversion to attacking the rim to me but he seemed to do plenty good of a job of attacking and getting to the line, which is a nice sign that he isn’t afraid of contact.  He’s not just an outside shooter, although he is excellent from there as well with his 39.7% three point percentage on 5.9 attempts a game.
• Mikel Brown is a popular name for the Kings as well, but I don’t like what the numbers have to say about him.  To me the numbers scream that he’s a chucker.  Almost 60% of his field goal attempts were threes, and he made just 34.4% of them.  He had a relatively high assist rate, but he also had a high turnover rate, which to me indicates more reckless passing.  He also had one statistic that really threw me for a loop; He only got one offensive rebound in the 21 games he played. I know, who really cares about offensive rebounds for Point Guards right? Still, I thought that was strange.  Now Brown was dealing with a back injury for most of the season (another red flag to me), but coming into this season was projected as the top Point Guard prospect. He’s got excellent size and he was arguably the best player for Team USA at the U19 World Cup, leading a team that featured AJ Dybantsa, Koa Peat and Morez Johnson in Points and Assists while shooting 46.7% from the field and 47.6% from three over 7 games.  Still, which Mikel Brown are you getting?  I’m not sure that’s a gamble I’d make, but also this team might just need to make that bet at this point if they feel the risk is worth it.
• Labaron Philon measures up well with some of the other Point Guards in the draft, but he’s a sophomore instead of a freshman and is one of the lighter players in the draft, coming in at just 176.2 pounds at the combine.  Despite his slimmer stature, he wasn’t afraid to attack the basket and get to the line, and he’s also a solid three point shooter, making 39.9% of his threes on 6.2 attempts a game.  I’m not sure I’d take him at 7 but if the Kings were to trade back he’d be on my radar.
• Brayden Burries is interesting as well, but the big question with him is if he can be a full time Point Guard.  Burries averaged just 2.4 assists a game as a freshman, but shared a backcourt with senior guard Jaden Bradley who handled the primary ballhandling duties.  I think at the next level Burries will be asked to be a Point Guard, and I think he can be one in the same vein of Jamal Murray.  In fact, Murray also averaged just 2.2 assists a game in college as a shooting guard before making the full time transition to Point Guard in the NBA.  Murray’s definitely more of a scorer than playmaker, and Burries likely will be too, so it’s a good thing that he’s pretty good at it.  He’s also a solid defender, with the second highest defensive box plus minus among freshmen.
• Aday Mara is probably going to make some team very happy as their new Center of the future.  If he was a freshman, he’d probably be in consideration for the #1 pick, but he’s a junior and as such has a bit lower of a ceiling.  Still, he’s gigantic at 7’3 barefoot with a 9’9 standing reach, has the second highest block rate in the entire draft at 12%, and even posts a solid assist rate for a big man.  Mara is exceedingly efficient offensively, making 66.8% of his field goal attempts last season, but he’s also limited and doesn’t have much range outside of the paint.  That’s not likely to get better either, as evidenced by his 58.5% career free throw percentage in college.  Still, he could end up being one of the leagues premiere rim protectors from day one.
• Yaxel Lendeborg is another player who looks ready to come in and make contributions from the start.  His numbers are fantastic across the board, and he has the measurements and skill to be able to play anywhere in the frontcourt for an NBA team.  He is second in offensive box plus minus and third in defensive box plus minus across all prospects.  His rebounding looks a little low for a big man, but that can be partially explained by sharing a frontcourt with Aday Mara and Morez Johnson, as Lendeborg’s rebounding numbers were far better in his previous two collegiate years before coming to Michigan (albeit in a far worse conference).  The biggest thing going against Lendeborg is his age. He’s a fifth-year senior and will be 24 years old when the NBA season starts.  That’s an immediate turn off to me as a Kings fan even if I think he’s going to be awesome, and him going to a veteran team like the Warriors or Thunder (picking 11th and 12th respectively) makes me a little queasy.  If only this version of Yaxel had been in the 2024 draft.
• Nate Ament looks like a big project to me, and if he didn’t have such excellent measurables he probably wouldn’t be considered a lottery prospect.  Despite being almost 6’10 barefoot, he managed to shoot under 40% from the field, and only 33.3% from three.  He did get to the line quite a bit, and he was also an above average rebounder, but anyone taking Ament is likely going to have to wait a few years to see if he can fill out and develop his offensive game.  For teams with patience and a good surrounding foundation it might be a good bet, but I wouldn’t put the Kings in that group.

Post-Lottery Thoughts

• Allen Graves from Santa Clara has a very weird and interesting profile.  He’s got solid size for a 3/4 combo at almost 6’8 barefoot with an 8’10.5 standing reach.  He doesn’t score a ton (just 11.8 points a game) but he’s exceedingly efficient when he does (51.2% from the field and 41.3% from three). He’s an excellent rebounder, particularly on the offensive glass, and he’s got the 2nd highest steal rate in the draft as well as a solid block rate while almost never turning the ball over.  These kind of stats kind of remind me of Kyle Anderson, although Anderson was a far better playmaker in college.
• Cameron Carr is someone who popped out at me when I first compiled these stats.  At just 6’4.5 barefoot he has an almost 7’1 wingspan, and that probably accounts for the reason that his block rate is higher than that of any non big man in the draft, while also posting solid rebounding statistics as well. He’s also not a slouch on the other end of the floor as well, averaging 18.9 pionts a game while shooting 37.4% from three on 6.1 attempts a game.  Two-Way wings that can guard multiple positions are NBA gold right now and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Carr go in the lottery as a result, especially since this draft seems a bit light on wings.
• Dailyn Swain is another wing that has some two-way potential.  He’s a better playmaker and rebounder than Carr, and also posts a higher steal rate.  He’s also very efficient from the field, making almost 60% of his twos.  That efficiency combined with his high free throw attempt rate makes me believe that Swain is very good at attacking the rim.  Shooting, once again, is the real question mark, as Swain shot just 34.4% from three last season on only 2.6 attempts a game. Still, that was a sizeable jump from his previous two seasons, and his free throw percentage of 81.5% for his career speaks to someone with good mechanics.  He also needs to cut down on the turnovers, posting a very high 16.4% turnover rate.
• I’ve always been a sucker for bigs who can pass, and Joshua Jefferson might be the best passing big man in the draft, posting an assist rate of 27.7%.  He’s also a solid rebounder and posts good steal and block rates.  If there’s a big knock on him it’s his shooting as he only shot 34.5% from three as a senior.
• Tarris Reed Jr. has an intriguing mix of rebounding (elite on both ends of the floor), passing (above average for a big man) and shot blocking (4th highest block rate in the class). I think the only things really holding him back from being considered a better prospect are his age and the fact that he doesn’t have any outside shooting ability (he’s 1 for 7 from three over all four years of college and shot just 58.2% from the line).
• Zuby Ejiofor has a similar profile to Reed in a slightly smaller frame.  He’s not as good of a defensive rebounder, but he’s a better playmaker and more importantly he’s shown some semblance of offensive range. It’s not much range (30.5% from three on 1.6 attempts last year) but it at least shows a willingness to step outside and provides a bit more of a foundation on that front.
• Baba Miller is an intriguing huge wing at almost 6’11 without shoes, but also a very skinny 208.2 pounds.  He had the second highest defensive rebound rate in the draft, a solid assist rate and was a good shot blocker.  He looks like he can contribute as a solid wing defender from Day one, but whether or not he can carve out a real role for himself depends on if he can provide anything offensively. Miller wasn’t much of a shooter in college, making just 19.2% of his threes as a senior, and just 29% over his collegiate career.  His Free Throw Percentage of 61.9% for his career is discouraging in that regard as well.
• Henri Veesaar is this year’s stretch center similar to Max last year, although he’s a bit skinnier than Max and also a better shooter having made 42.6% of his attempts last year as a senior.  He’s also pretty skinny for a center at just 227.2 pounds.
• Rueben Chinyelu is the best rebounder in the draft bar none, posting the highest offensive and defensive rebound rate.  That makes sense when you consider that he has a massive 7’7.5 wingspan despite being just over 6’9 barefoot.  I would have hoped his block rate would be a bit higher though even though it’s solid.
• Milan Momcilovic is the best shooter in the draft, having made 48.7% of his threes on 7.5 attempts a game.  He’s also got solid size for a wing at 6’8.  But can he do anything other than shoot? The statistics don’t really show that.  The Kings could use shooting for sure, but would Momcilovic be anything other than a slightly taller Doug McDermott?
• Ugonna Onyenso is the best shot blocker in the draft and it’s not close.  He had a block rate of 17.4%, and swatted nearly 3 shots a game in under 20 minutes of actual playing time.  Another intriguing aspect of his game is that he has started to branch out as a shooter, as he attempted one three a game last season as a senior after not shooting any threes in any of his prior seasons.  He only made 27.8% of them, but if he can develop that part of the game to become even an average three point shooter, he’d be the exact type of big most NBA teams would want.
• Jeremy Fears Jr. (Brother of Pelicans rookie Jeremiah Fears) and Braden Smith are the draft’s best passers (in fact Smith holds the college career assist record with 1,103 assists over four years), but they’re also two of the tiniest players in the entire draft.  Fears is just 6′ barefoot, and Smith is 5’10.25 and also weighs just 166.6 pounds.  If I had to pick one that would be better in the NBA, I’d probably lean Smith solely because he’s the better shooter.  Fears gets most of his points attacking the basket and getting to the line, and that won’t be as easy to do at the NBA level.  While Smith is smaller, he’s a far better outside shooter. Still, it’d be tough to project either of these players as anything other than backup PG options at best.
• Maliq Brown has one of the weirder advanced statistics profiles I’ve seen. He’s a forward/center who has the highest steal rate of anyone in the draft as well as the highest defensive box plus minus at 8.9.  He’s a better offensive rebounder than defensive rebounder, but he’s also the most turnover prone player in the entire draft.  He also has the lowest usage in the draft which means he barely touches the ball and given that turnover percentage probably can’t be trusted with the ball for any length of time.  His high FG% basically means that all he does is dunk, but he also did shoot some threes (not well).  He’d be an interesting option for an undrafted two-way player probably for a team that needs some defensive size and doesn’t really need offense from their big man.
• Peja is my favorite player of all time and I know his son Andrej Stojakovic is getting some draft hype (although he could withdraw and go back to Illinois) but I think he probably should just go back to school.  None of his statistics really scream to me that he’s an NBA player.  Interestingly for the son of Peja, he’s not a great shooter and is much more of a driver.  But he’s also not that good of a rebounder, passer or defender.

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Keep an eye out for some further deep dives on specific prospects as we get closer to the NBA Draft, but this is nice first look to get acquainted with the players that many teams are hoping can become a big part of their future.  Let me know in the comments if there’s anything that stood out to you, or maybe who you’d like to read more about in the coming weeks.  Starting Monday, we’ll be doing our community draft board polls as well, so look forward to that and have a great Memorial Day weekend!