Oklahoma City Thunder guard Luguentz (Lu) Dort and Sacramento Kings guard Keon Ellis have a somewhat parallel story arc in the NBA, with potentially two very different outcomes.
Dort went undrafted and joined the Thunder in 2019 on a two-way contract. He made an immediate impression with defense, which earned him a contract shortly after. By June 2020, Oklahoma City gave him a four-year, $5.4 million deal. Two seasons later his team option was declined, and the team offered him a five-year, $87.5 million extension.
Ellis began his journey in 2022. After going undrafted himself, he joined the Kings and signed a two-way deal after showing promise on the defensive side of the ball. He earned a 3-year, $5.5 million contract in February 2024, a testament to his reliability on defense and growth. In June, the Kings picked up his team option, which makes him an unrestricted free agent next season. The Kings have the ability to extend him on Feb. 9.
On the court, Dort and Ellis evolved into defensive-minded, low-usage guards who can knock down threes. Ellis for his career averages 42% from three. Dort’s career average is 35% from three (with two more attempts per game). Dort’s career average in steals is 1, Ellis’ is 1.2. Both shoot 79% from the free throw line. Both aren’t really distributors, averaging less than 2 assists per game. Both are 6’4’’, but Dort can push opponents around more at 220 pounds, compared to Ellis at 175 pounds. But this makes Ellis quicker with ability to sneak into passing lanes easier. On the flip side, Dort is a better rebounder, probably because of his extra weight.
Bottom line: They are both 3-and-D players who play with discipline and are willing to sacrifice for the betterment of their teams. Ellis is slightly more efficient from the field, while Dort is a slightly better rebounder.
Each player’s year three served as their breakouts. Dort’s minutes jumped to 32 per game and he started in all 51 of the games he played in. He averaged 17.2 points, 4.2 rebounds and 1.7 assists. Ellis’ third year came with fewer minutes (24 per game) and he logged 28 starts in the 80 games he played in. He averaged 8.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.5 steals and 48% from the field and 43% from three. There weren’t a lot of shots to go around on a team that featured Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Malik Monk. On Nov. 18, 2024, in a game against the Atlanta Hawks, Ellis scored 33 points in 33 minutes on 9-15 from three.
As you can see, Ellis’ leash in terms of minutes was a lot shorter than Dort’s in year three. For the next four seasons after his breakout third season, Dort played around 30 minutes per game and started every game he played in other than 1. This included playing a key role in the Thunder’s championship last season. His shot attempts per game and scoring has incrementally decreased each year since his third year, but he has remained an integral part of the rotation. So far this season, Ellis’ fourth year, he has seen six less minutes per game than his third season and started in only 1 of the 9 games he has played in. Ellis’ year three, in my opinion, should have been the year he earned trust because his efficiency and defensive metrics show he is ready for a larger role.
As mentioned in a previous article, last season, some of the most efficient Kings lineups featured him, according to Cleaning the Glass:
- The lineup with the best differential had Keon Ellis in it
- The top SIX lineups in points per possession had Keon Ellis in it
- The top FOUR lineups with the best effective field goal percentage featured Keon Ellis
- The lineup with the best turnover percentage, you guessed it, featured Keon Ellis
- The top FOUR lineups with the best offensive rebound percentage had Keon Ellis
- Keon Ellis was in the lineup with the best free throw rate
- The lineup with the best points per possession allowed featured Keon Ellis
- The lineup with the best opponent effective field goal percentage had Keon Ellis in it
- The top two lineups with the best turnover percentage included Keon Ellis
Now, where Dort and Ellis’ trajectories begin to take different paths is within the goals of each organization they are with. The Thunder give their young players the ability to grow through experiences and trust, room to fail knowing their potential outweighed the mistakes and losses that could come from them, all while fitting in to what is going on with the rest of the roster. Player development is the team’s lifeblood.
Internal trust over immediate results.
Here are some Sam Presti quotes to ponder from this 2024 article:
“As they say, shortcuts cut long runs short, and we’re going to do everything in our power not to allow that to happen.”
“You can’t have one eye on the clock and one eye on the destination. We need to have two eyes on the path for us to be successful. We’ll let other people watch the clock.”
The Kings operate in a win-now mentality, with both eyes on the clock. The short cuts are evident with a roster of older veterans who are well-known around the league, but have no championships to their names. They all need the ball in their hands to be effective. More specifically, it features a glut of guards that prevent Ellis from having an increased role.
One franchise believes in cultural continuity and sustained development, the other believes in a win-now focus of hanging on to hopes of a Play-In appearance at all costs for the sake of entertainment.
And it was apparent Friday night at the Golden 1 Center when these two teams played each other. Dort didn’t play in the game because of a shoulder issue. Ellis didn’t play either, at least until the fourth quarter, due to a roster construction issue.
As the Thunder pulled away from the Kings after the first quarter, it became glaring Ellis had not entered the game. As the game went on into the third quarter and the Kings could not make a shot or stop anything, the guy who can do both remained sitting on the ground near the bench. Ellis maintained a cheery demeanor, celebrating made baskets and supporting his teammates. But that is all he could do as the four-guard lineup featuring Dennis Schroder, Zach LaVine, Russell Westbrook, and DeMar DeRozan tried to make things work with the severely overmatched Drew Eubanks at center. Eubanks finished with 1 rebound as Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holgrem erased his presence on the boards. (There is still no one who can pick up the slack when Domantas Sabonis isn’t on the floor and he missed this game. Which is a whole other roster construction problem given the Kings traded away Jonas Valanciunas in the offseason for Dario Saric, who didn’t play Friday.)
Anyhow, when Ellis finally entered the game in the fourth quarter the game was already pretty much in the books.
Following the game, head coach Doug Christie had this to say about why Ellis sat the first three quarters: “It’s a numbers game. I mean there’s a big logjam there. So, night to night it could be different. It’s not going to get any easier once you get Keegan [Murray] back.”
Translation: Once Westbrook no longer has to play at power forward, he will need minutes at the guard spots, which further limits Ellis.
Christie also was asked how difficult it is to figure out the correct rotation with what he has to work with.
“I think the correct rotation is going to be whoever plays defense,” he said.
Ellis played 12 minutes total in the 132-101 loss.
Christie has his own set of pressures to deal with right now in terms of trying to manufacture wins with a deeply flawed roster construction featuring aging, well-known veterans who expect minutes so it could be a variety of reasons he does not feel he has the ability to give Ellis extended run. Maybe he doesn’t think Ellis is up to par in terms of doing other things outside of on-ball defense and shooting threes. Ellis isn’t a great rebounder and his per 36 minutes put him at 3.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists and only 12.9 points. Christie was a defensive specialist also, so it makes it even more curious as to why he doesn’t play Ellis more.
Whatever the head coach’s real reasoning is though isn’t as important as the question of why this Kings team doesn’t seem all that interested in finding out if Ellis is their Dort. There is probably a lot of politics going on around this. And maybe they already think they know what he is and have made a decision for the future.
There also seems to be a dedication to winning now while not having a real chance of winning anything significant, and at the same time not being bad enough for a high lottery pick. Now, the Kings also don’t have Shae Gilgeous Alexander, which plays a pretty large factor into roster decisions, but without a clear path to even the ability to find their SGA, why not figure out the pieces you do have so if the opportunity arises you can act with a supporting cast ready and waiting?
Look, Ellis isn’t a franchise player who is going to win a game at the buzzer for you or take over a game, but he is a guy you put in a position to make an impact long-term if you are looking to build cultural continuity and sustained development.
The ‘come clean, tell-all’ article somebody gets out of Monte, Mike Brown, DC, or you name it after they have retired and don’t need another NBA job will be awfully interesting.
Do those articles happen often? I have a feeling that they don’t.
Wish it would. Maybe more likely in the clickbait media environment we increasingly live in.
Mike Malone (especially) and Pete D’Alessandro have more or less already said it.
Has anyone from TKH reached out to kings personnel (FO/Coaching/player) on the condition of anonymity to speak on the Keon farce? This is year 3 and everyone has been tight lipped ….. including keon. Im guessing keon is being told to be a pros pro so not to impact his next contract.
Thanks. Good article, highlighting one of the more frustrating stories of the season (so far).
Unless they overpay him like crazy in February, Keon will be gone next season. Good for him.
I’m so tired of this shit. Preach, preach, preach defense and then sit your most enthusiastic defensive player. It has gotten to the point that I am happy for Fox that he got paroled, and I will feel the same for Domas, and Ellis.
I was going to write a weekly this season, but honestly, I’m barely watching the games right now. It is a roster and broadcast team that is really hard to watch / listen to, and this is coming from someone that has seen more than his fair share of shitty basketball.
This community deserves so much better.
To the point of the roster you can’t watch, I was thinking about the individuals the other day, and other than Sabonis, Keegan, and arguably Monk, everyone else just isn’t a King. No one is going to remember the Sacramento years of LaVine, DDR, Schröder, or Westbrook. They are just temporaries. There is no connection to them and the city of Sacramento. No matter what Fox does over the next few years, he will always be remembered as a King. Maybe part of it is being home grown (Fox and Keegan), or positive years of production with actual winning (Sabonis and Monk).
Years from now I feel like The Old Guard(s) time is Sac is going to be an answer to some random trivia question, like Shaq in Boston, Olajuwan in Toronto, or Nash in LA. There is just no connection with the player, the franchise or the city. They are mercenaries who I don’t get the feeling are playing for the city and fanbase, but are rather just playing for themselves.
Give me some young and thirsty guys who I remember being drafted. I don’t care if they don’t win for a season or two, but what I do care about is they are Sacramento’s.
I find it odd that anyone would even watch the Kangz. Let this franchise burn.
Bravo, Blake. Thanks for his piece. Many of us agree, including Rob (pictured on the right).
Te NBA is littered with examples of guys who made it in the league and had an impact because of what they do defensively, and many find their way to winning ball clubs. I wonder why that is?
It’s just many of us here on TKH that see it. Kings Reddit sees it. other teams’ blogs see it. Deuce has all but called the Kings out for it, even Jerry freaking Reynolds says Keon should get 30 minutes a night. It’s only the Kangz that fail to see it.
Doug is correct, it is a logjam, and if he DNP/CD any of the other guards or dicked around with their minutes like he does Keon, there would likely be hell to pay in the locker room. Doug is taking the path of least resistance. I think it should also be mentioned that Carter, and any development he might need, is being sacrificed at the expense of “The Old Guard(s).” It’s now on Perry to clean this shit up, becuase once Keegan returns it’s going to get even worse.
It’s enough to make a guy want to put on pants.
What if Perry’s boss doesn’t want it cleaned up? That’s where my money is.
I’m not holding my breath. Perry had a full offseason to do something and he just made it worse. I’m hoping for the best, but right now, it looks like Perry is either under Vivek’s thumb, an idiot or both.
Given that McNair’s replacement happened practically (literally?) over night, with no search, my guess is it’s the first one, and he’s going to keep putting together NBA celebrity, fantasy basketball and retirement tour rosters.
I’ll go with both.
His inane 6 points are dumb platitudes, just like the Monday Morning inspirational quotes he posts on X. He gives the distinct impression of a man who hasn’t had an original thought in his life.
Very true, Christie is completely soft. Letting old guys get minutes to appease Vivek and won’t stand up to vets. Major problem with ‘players coaches’. Christie is a cute idea, typical Vivek. Looks good on the surface, no substance.
Excellent stuff. Even when Brown was here, Keon’s minutes were an issue. The dude has worked had, and I want to see that pay off for him. I suspect it will be on another next season. Whichever team signs him will be looking at the Kings and laughing while saying “why the hell did they let this guy go?”
I personally do not want to wait until next year. The more you wait the less the Kings front office has some power to make trades. Ellis is a good example. Sabonis is another while you wait you lose baganing chips.Carter is another. In the article above it showed you what OKC does with young talent. We just let them sit and waste their to be talent. If you aren’t going to play them then trade them. I fear Clifford and Raynaud will be in the same boat along with Ellis and Carter. You aren’t going to win with the old guard so play the young guys at least some sort of meaningful minutes so they can develop. I truly believe Vivek is running the show and his younger talent are just fodder.What a sad state the Kings are in. As long as Vivek runs the show we will win nothing. Good luck you younger players. You are on a team that won’t play you so you can develop. It’s really hard to watch.
I just don’t understand Doug Christie anymore. I am starting to really realize if he is a good coach. I understand he has almost nothing to work with. He won’t play Ellis or Carter to where they just sit on the bench. Is this going to happen to all the young talent on this team. I guess he will only play the older guys and is afraid to bring in a guy like Ellis who is your best up front defender. We got killed last night because the” old guard” could not stay with their man. Sure they score in the twenties almost every night but because of their poor defense we lose by 31. Just doesn’t make sense to me. OKC has a way of developing their young players. We don’t. I watched last night and just cried. No Ellis and no Carter, who by the way is probably our third best defender on the team. I guess Perry is waiting for 2 or 3 years to then decide what to do. Play Schroder, Westbrook, LaVine and Derozan. They aren’t winning anything. Trade and get some younger players to develop a long with the young talent we already have. Maybe some draft picks. We won’t win a lot of games to start with but at least they would be fun to watch as that develop. GO KINGS!
I’m with you, with a caveat. If I could wave a magic wand and make Schroeder, DDR, LaVine & Monk disappear, I’d wave it. Leave me Sabonis & Westbrook to play with the youngsters and pad their stats until closer to the deadline, then wave the magic wand again. Play the youngsters, lose a ton, hope to fall into a top 3 pick.
Bad basketball is bad basketball, but at least there’s a bit of a point to youthful bad basketball.
That is a solid plan going forward and one that could actually change the direction of the Franchise . Sadly, solid plan for a future is not on Vivek or his puppets timeline .
The question you have to ask yourself about Doug is, would he be coaching any of the other 29 teams? Would he even be a top assistant? It was the same when Vlade was GM. Does he even get a front office job for the other 29 teams, let alone GM?
If the answer to the questions is likely no, then you can confirm the fact the neither Vlade or Doug should have been put into those positions.
Then you have to ask, well why do they have those jobs?
His name starts with a V and he looks like Mr. Burns.
DC is not a good HC.
Great article Blake, I wish the Kings would embrace rhe OKC way. It seems most of the league acknowledges that occasional rebuilds are part of what it takes to have success in the NBA. Unless you are a large market that can quickly re-load in free agency then it’s going to take time, which will eventually pay off and be worth it.
Also large-market teams often do both simultaneously with rebuilds that are combined with free agent signings at the right time. A small-market team like the Kings really needs to use the OKC method (just copy it dummies) and go all in on building through draft and player development. Trades should be used for draft picks and there should be little to no free agent signings in the first few years of the rebuild. The instant gratification tactics of the Kings have a slim chance of working.
Viveks only concern is to try and not lose many more games than the previous year. What a boring strategy, larger profits and franchise valuation would come after a few years of tanking and this fanbase is not going anywhere.
There is really only one franchise that continually doesn’t build through the draft and instead relies on market and clout, and that is the Lakers. For them draft picks are just tokens used to acquire established talent around the league.
As to the other contenders and past champions:
Denver: drafted Jokic, Murray, Porter Jr.
Bucks: drafted Giannis, had a home grown Middleton
Celtics: drafted Tatum and Brown
OKC: traded for picks and youth (SGA) and drafted Chet and Williams
Raptors: drafted Siakam, OG, and undrafted VanVleet
Spurs: Drafted Robinson, Duncan, Parker, Ginobli, Leonard
Mavs: Drafted Dirk
In order to win nearly every NBA teams has to draft, develop, and control their talent. Yet, for some strange reason, Vivek and co. feel they can build a team like the Lakers by signing old stars and overpaying in free agency. It’s mind numbing to see Vivek try and “think outside the box” when it comes to roster building.
The only logical conclusion is their he is either incredibly dumb or he just doesn’t care to try and win. I’m thinking it is the later.
Meanwhile, the casual fan is pleased as punch to see players with one foot out of the league like Russell Westbrook and Demar DeRozan steal minutes from the guys who SHOULD be getting them.
It’s really something to behold. We are leading the NBA in % of shots taken from midrange, while having the second oldest team in terms of average usage.
I refuse to say we are a win-now team. We suck. We are a lose-now team.
We are a wince now team.
The city does deserve much better, but Casual Fan enables Vivek to keep doing this. If attendance dropped to 8,000 per game, things would change.
Great article. Lord knows if there is a way for Vivek and Co. to screw up a good thing they will. He/they remind me of someone else who thinks he knows it all, but in point of fact is a total dunce. In the racing community it’s called “all show and no go”.
I don’t remember what I was looking for, but a couple of months back I cycled through every Kings season since they came here, via basketball-reference.com, and some consistent patterns became clear. Sometimes some of these patterns would overlap, but the end result was always the same – misery for Kings fans.
Extended periods of desolation. Like the 8 year stretch in the 80s/90s where we couldn’t even win 30 games, or the 16 year stretch where we couldn’t make the playoffs. Lots of mierda during those stretches and in general.
The savior who isn’t, or how many drafts can you whiff? Since we’re not a FA destination, drafting well, especially in the lottery, is critical. This is a bit tricky as a lot of teams have whiffed on lottery picks, but we just seem to be gifted at drafting players who ended up not being what we needed them to be, see Evans, Cousins, Bagley, etc., and/or we just happened picked the wrong guy when other choices were available (Jimmer over Klay, Robinson over Lillard, McLemore over a traffic cone). Now, some of those guys seemed reasonable at the time, but there were also WTF? moments in there as well (Bagley, Papagiannis). Bottom line, we’ve never drafted a true foundational piece whether it was due incompetence or just tough draft luck despite having high picks.
Bad owners/FOs and here today gone later today coaches. For me, the root of it is ownership as the rest seems to derive from that.
The Lucy/Charlie Brown effect. Even with the above always hovering and in play, there were times when sunlight somehow made its way through the clouds in the Kingdom and we actually had a championship caliber team (01-04), or at least seemed to be building positively for the future (mid 90s Mitch teams, Scores era, Beam Team era) only for the sunlight to disappear via tough beats and puzzling disintegrations of what seemed like promising teams.
I know it’s meant a bit tongue in cheek, but if you follow this team long enough the “You Can’t Hurt Me I’m A Kings Fan” t-shirt slogan becomes a reality!
Hooray for still not having an organizational philosophy!
Who’d have thought you’d need a PLAN to be successful in the NBA?
Presti is a G and Monte/Perry are not.
OKC is literally set for the next decade the way they keep drafting and developing players they’ll be able to put around their big 3.
Ajay Mitchell, a second year player is putting up 17 and 4.
The infrastructure is there for this franchise to have a Spurs/Duds like run over a decade to a decade and a half.
We’ll still be mired in a mediocre existense that never ends courtesy of Vivek and then eventually his daughter.
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