In a Kings season filled with inconsistency and change, Keon Ellis finished the year with career highs across the board, and we all pretty much wanted more. Not more from what is under Keon’s control, but rather more opportunities for the third-year guard when he was clearly one of the Kings better defenders and deep shooters. It took until the tail end of the season – the whole 7 games in the month of April – before Keon averaged 30 minutes per contest over the course of a month, and regardless of the lineup and coaching challenges Sacramento faced this year, that just doesn’t make sense for a Kings roster that struggled with what Keon is good at.
Keon averaged 8.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 1.5 steals per game while shooting a career high 48.9% from the field and 43.3% from deep. When Keon was on the court, he wasn’t asked to do a ton on offense besides spacing the floor and attacking in transition, but on a roster that shuffled around a ton of ball handlers, his spacing and off-ball quick trigger were ideal. From November through April, he shot 39% from deep or better in each month, and he lived at the three point line – he was second among all Kings in three-point attempt rate, behind only Doug McDermott.
The advanced stats for Keon are downright hilarious; he was 7th on the team in total shots taken and a damning 12th in usage rate among players who played at least 350 minutes in Sacramento (and a whopping 22nd among all Kings who ever played). And per Cleaning the Glass, across all guards in the NBA, Keon was in the 100th percentile for total points scored per 100 shot attempts, in the 99th percentile for effective field goal percent, and in the 0th percentile for usage rate per minutes played. There are certainly limitations to his offensive game – he’s not a point guard, and he was second-to-last amongst big-minute players in assist rate (ahead of only Zach LaVine) – but for his role, Keon’s numbers highlight his excellence.
Ellis also continued to be a strong and determined defender. His individual advanced numbers per Cleaning the Glass aren’t as strong as teammate Keegan Murray’s, but he did hold opponents to below the league average and was in the 94th percentile across guards for his 2.8% steal rate. And Keon was one of only two Kings in all four of their most successful lineups when comparing team points per possessions against their opponents (the second? DeMar DeRozan).
Keon was a model for his role on the roster even as little around him in Sacramento matched his consistency. Considering his defensive approach, deep shot ability, and easy synergy with the Kings ball handlers, it remains a mystery to me why Mike Brown didn’t start him from day 1. We can’t pretend Keon’s inconsistent playing time was the Kings biggest issue this season, but I know I’m not alone in wondering if the Kings could have gotten off to a better start this season – and survived the 13-18 start that cost Brown his job – if Brown had at least played Ellis more than 18 minutes per contest in those 31 games. While the roster will go through some restructuring this summer, I hope Doug Christie continues what he ended the year with and keeps Ellis in the starting lineup. I know it’s hard to give any player a great grade after the totality of the season, but Keon deserves it.
Keon and Keegan are by far my favorite Kings at the moment. Even if both are extended at higher salaries, their 2-way production vs cost is something to build around.
Keon is an elite role-player and I hope he’s here for a long time.
Keegan is at least the same, maybe more if given an opportunity.
Me too. Love watching those guys play (especially when Keegan is more assertive offensively). Get rid of DeMar and get those two guys more shots.
I hope Doug starts with them as the cornerstones of our team defensively!
100% and there is a legit chance that Devin Carter can join that group, he is already a GREAT rebounder for the position, has great defensive energy, and has shown the ability to hit the 3.
I don’t think rebounding is the skill set on the top of the list they want from Carter. I’d like for them to tear it down and them give him in good long look.
Unfortunately, I have no “favorite Kings” at the moment. My apathy for the team is at maximum level. I might check back in 2 years to see if the new GM has made anything along the lines of an interesting move, but I have zero expectations. I don’t see this current squad or any slightly improved version of it being anything other than a “play-in hopeful” – ever. Blow it up. All of it. Start with the owner and replace from there.
I just can’t get interested in grading any part of this team right now.
Ya… I’m dark on this team. Carry on and enjoy the thread. Apologies for raining on the parade. I’ll see myself out now.
It’s not that hard to figure out how to enjoy a clown show.
Pick another sports franchise with a competent ownership and you can balance it out pretty easily.
Who have you chosen? Asking for a friend.
I’m a third generation Eagles and Phillies fan. It balances out Vivek’s incompetence nicely.
Keon is fun to watch. He was frenetic and had some gambles defensively that cost the team, but he was being aggressive and most of the time he was effective.
Offensively, ball handling and playmaking aren’t his strengths. He excels at being the off ball floor spacer, which is what the team needs with Domas.
Allegedly, Brown didn’t play Keon more because he took “too many gambles” defensively, and Brown thought it hurt the team. I get that, and at the same time, look where the team was when Brown was fired.
I do hope that LaVine is traded and Keon becomes the starting PG as the team finally makes the commitment to being a defensively centered team (I won’t hold my breath). Find a way to pair him with Jalen Suggs or a similar player (along with Keegan) and watch the defense take over games.
I hope we trade Lavine too but I don’t see Keon as the starting PG. Last year after the Lavine trade, 3 of our top 6 players were basically SGs (Lavine, Monk and Keon). We badly need a true facilitating PG for our offense. Defensively, I think Keon is fantastic against a PG, but with his offensive skillset and defensive versatility I hope he’s our starting SG and we trade for a true point.
I meant starting SG.
Lol.
Keon needs to start. What’s the most likely option:
I don’t think #2 or #3 are possible.
Agreed! I also don’t think we’ll trade Lavine, which sadly leads me to believe Keon won’t start.
The only way Keon should start is if they decide to tear it down and rebuild. In that scenario I’d love to see a lot of minutes for Carter and him.
Keon not starting when he is by far the best defender on this team makes no sense. MB wouldn’t even play him. Sh!t show of a franchise. Vivek wasn’t and isn’t the only problem, he’s just by far the biggest problem.
Monk and DDR should soon become the consensus top 2 players to trade. Monk has the most value with a good contract and ability to score. DDR needs to be gone as his scoring focus destroys the flow of the game and makes us offensively inefficient. If we get 5 roles players, who shoot the 3 and play defense (1-2 need to play the 3/4/5), we will probably obtain more cap space and more wins.
Lavine turns the ball over too much because he picks up his dribble too often. Keon needs Barbosa to train to be a passer/ball mover, who will get the same support from Sabonis. Keegan at the 3 and a decent starting 4 will make us better.
I like Keon a lot.
If I could nitpick, I’d wish he was a bit bigger and bulkier, as he tends to get overpowered by bigger players and also seems a bit too hesitant and soft when attacking the rim. But he’s using the tools that he has at his disposal as good as he can, I suppose.
I’d love to see his deflection numbers compared to others in the league.
I really hope that next season Doug will go away from the switch-happy defensive schemes, since that took away from the strengths of Keon and Keegan.
Switching is fine, when the personnel is there to execute it properly. Kings just don’t have that, and their players get hunted defensively every game. They need another solid 2 or 3 defenders to run a switch heavy scheme. LaVine and DDR are the main culprits.
He was tied for 6th (with Jalen Williams) in deflections per game (3.5) and was 2nd league in total deflections (272)…all wile getting just 24 MPG.
To add onto Adamsite’s comment, here are some additional Per 36 and Per 100 numbers for comparisons with the runaway steals/deflections leader Daniels
Dyson Daniels (1st Team All-Defensive)
2.6 STLs per 36mins
3.4 STLs per 100 possessions
6.2 Deflections per 36mins (#1 NBA)
5.8 Deflections per Game (#1 NBA)
Keon Ellis
2.1 STLs per 36mins
2.9 STLs per 100 possessions
5.0 Deflections per 36mins (#3 NBA)
3.5 Deflections per Game (#6 NBA)
Stats from basketball-reference
Switching is an essential component of any good defense, That’s why you want versatile defenders like you’re seeing on OKC, Minnesota, Knicks and Pacers. It’s ok to have a small on a big around the perimeter or big on small near the post. Nothing wrong with the scheme it’s the roster which is the only thing that matters. Have the right roster and those discussions disappear.
Definitely needs to get bigger so he can play more wing and take on any sized guard.
In a perfect Kings world Keon is the starting off guard picking up the opponents best back court player on the defense end and is a catch and shoot 3pt specialist on the offensive end. I could see him in that KCP role in Denver or Dort in OKC. They don’t need to score a ton, just make their open shots and keep defenses honest. Unfortunately, we live in a Kangz world where LaVine is going to eat the bulk of the minutes at the off guard spot and Keon really isn’t a PG.
Ideally, Kings move off of LaVine (I don’t see that happening) and acquire a long pass first PG who can get Keon and Keegan open shots and take the playmaking weight off of Sabonis, think a Josh Giddey type. The evil angel on my shoulder says go get Ben Simmons to play that role.
My perfect situation would be to go young, send off DDR or LaVine, and even Monk, off to Denver for a Porter Jr, package or off to Orlando for Black/Anthony/Isaac/KCP bundle. Why not both?
I could get behind the idea of this 9 man rotation:
PG: Anthony Black, Carter
SG: Keon, KCP
SF: Porter Jr.
PF: Keegan, Johnathan Isaac
C: Sabonis, JV
…and I’d still ofter Ben Simmons a free agent deal for shits and giggles.
Curious what the Magic think of their cap the next couple seasons. Suggs and Franz on max rookie extensions, and Paolo is coming up soon. That’s a lot of salary for a 6-10 seed, maybe higher if they stay healthy.
I like Suggs. Not sure he if he is more of a PG or SG, but I like what he brings defensively.
I have to say, (I don’t know why I have to, but it bugs me so much) that I just don’t get the Jonathan Isaac fantasy.
He is the defensive version of Marvin Bagley III. He can be an imposing defensive additive, but since he can’t stay on the court, it just doesn’t matter. If he was at the vet minimum, I get it, but he is due $66M over the next 4 years. He is 28 and the contract runs through him being 31 (2028-2029).
He is not a starter, he is a back up, that is unreliable – and this season, one of his recent healthiest – he averages 5.4pt/4.4rpg and shots 41.4% FG. He played 15.4 min per game during the regular season and 13.8 min per game this post season.
I just don’t get it.
That’s the thing, his deal is good. The one nice thing is that the last three years of his deal are partial guarantees. After next season he has only $8m guaranteed 26-27 and zero guaranteed the two years after that. If he does get hurt, the Kings could cut bait or move him to a team that’s looking for a deal like his to waive. His contract has value.
ORL definitely put injury protections in his contract:
5yr/$84M – $25M/$15M/$14.5/$14.5/$15
I get the idea on the paper, but he’s so hit or miss (game-to-game and year-to-year). In 2023, he shot 51% from the floor and 38% from 3, but last year he shot 41% from the floor and 26% from 3. I wouldn’t do it, but I could understand why someone else would, especially if the cost in acquiring him is low (or he’s added into a trade for salary reasons). I do think ORL wants to move him.
Yeah I got sucked into the Jonathan Issac thing a couple of years ago but no not interested anymore.
That’s why part of me thinks a contract and offense output of DDR or LaVine could be appealing to them. They’d be on the last year of their deals the year Paolo’s extension, which is likely coming this summer, would kick in. LaVine would likely still be a good producer and on an expiring deal they year their big three are approaching their peak.
I like the Magic bundle and makes sense for both teams.
We get much deeper and better defensively and have a bunch of smaller contracts to use in trades.
I think Ben Simmons would be an decent pickup as he could slot into the starting lineup as our Point-Forward. He’s not perfect (he wouldn’t be available if he were) but he does provide ball-handling, play-making, and defense and he’s one of the few players available that also help the Kings put their best 4 on the floor (Ellis/LaVine/Simmons/Murray/Domas) while shoring up most of the team’s deficiencies.
I could see this working, but it would rely on a standard offensive set where Simmons, Keegan, and Lavine make cuts off of Domas in the high-post (w/ Simmons cutting 1st to the rim nearly every time to stretch the D), followed by Keegan and LaVine mixing it up at all three levels. Domas reads the D and dumps off to Simmons at the basket, or DHO to LaVine/Keegan, or spray to Ellis in the far corner should the D cheat or collapse. The BBall version of the “Fly-Option” offense with Domas as the QB.
W. Carter and Cole Anthony (or Black–less likely) is a better solution for Monk. Porter Jr. seems like an injury and makes too much. Isaac is alos too injury prone for a Monk trade. Simmons is not a bad free agent to pursue in the 5-7 million to play about 25 minutes a game and help the defense quite a bit.
I like the KCP comp by Adamsite. He also fits the type of player that we Kings fans pine for: a hustle, high energy defense first player who hits the 3. DFS, and the TWolves Nickeil Alexander-Walker/Jaden McDaniels/Donte DiVencenzio kind of player. The NOP’s Herb Jones.
Three and D (really should be D and three, but not as catchy). Keegan, the same – though I would really like to see that 3FG% climb back up to the 40+ range. We know he can do it.
Throw in a stretch-ier version of that and the Kings are starting to look more imposing on defense. (Bobby Portis, Jarred Vanderbilt if my Naz Reid fantasy can’t be fulfilled). I hope the Kings can keep Jake (not from State Farm) LaRavia.
Build a better starting 5, then fill out a complimentary bench.
Another good comp, and one that I didn’t want to allude to until I dug in a bit deeper, was Dyson Daniels. Go check out his numbers in New Orleans before the trade. In the O4′ season Daniels was coming off the bench for the Pels and got 22MPG, which is not too dissimilar to Keon’s 24MPG this past season. Their numbers are on par, and Dyson can’t really shoot from deep like Keon can
Fast forward to the past season where Daniels got to start in ATL to the tune of nearly 34 minutes per game, and he led the league in steals and deflections while earning All-Defensive honors. I feel there is no reason Keon can’t do something similar if given the same opportunity.
Adam, if Daniels was coming off the bench in ’04, does that mean he guarded K-Mart or BJax?
I believe Kevin Garnett, who was MVP that season but I do recall Dyson shutting KG down every time they played that season. And Daniels was a Hornet, not a Pelican.
Doh….24′
I’d like to keep LARavia at the right price. If I was GM, I’d probably just keep Murray, Ellis, and LaRavia and the rest are on the trading block. I’d want a haul for Sabonis and salary relief and some low level draft compensation for the rest. Maybe just start with Val to Denver for Watson or Strawther and a salary filler. This is going to take a long time.
I do think DeRozan has some value, I think Houston or Denver are good fits for him but I want salary relief and a couple of second rounders in return.
I’d take a shot at Amen Thompson on Houston. DDR for Thompson, Landale and Holiday. Might be asking for to much but it does get Lansdale and Holiday off their books and DDR has a shorter contract in duration than Thompson.
Thompson, Watson, Strawther, and Kuminga are my prospects worth taking a shot at. If they didn’t work out it would set the franchise back much. So Watson in the Val trade, Kuminga for the right price in free agency, and Thompson in the DDR trade.
Carter,
LaVine, Monk, Ellis
LaRavia, Amen Thompson,
Murray, Watson,
Sabonis, Kuminga
I like that as a first step. Maybe see if you can also grab Lonzo Ball on the cheap. Maybe add Chris Paul in free agency and make him a player/coach. I like that too. That would be an interesting roster to watch develop and should land us in next years lottery.
Thompson is not going to be traded . He is their MVP. Watson , Strawther, Kuminga possible .
I thought Sengun and Green were their MVPs
By most accounts, Amen is the most untouchable on their roster.
I like LaRavia too, but the upcoming FA class is pretty thin and he’ll likely get more elsewhere.
You sound just like Jerry Reynolds. I mean that as a compliment !
OT: Investing little tidbit I recently saw in Ham’s socials: Kings worked out Yaxel Lendeborg today, among others. Yaxel is projected on many boards to go near the end of round 1. He’s a senior, 6’10 PF with a 7’4 wingspan. If anything, he has a cool name.
An athletic Kyle Anderson. Fine for a mid-late 1st..
Let’s be careful to not make him out to be Scottie Pippen. Given his contract he was good value. What I fear with him is another over pay like we did with Holmes. Let’s just be careful what he and is not. A nice piece coming off the bench who gives a lot of effort on defense. He has his limitations beyond that as of now. Not to say he can’t develop more of a game as his career progresses,
I will never understand how Coach Brown could preach Defense and 3 point shooting and screw over Keon who was good in both areas .
You talk like Ellis is Anthony Edwards. He played enough given what they were trying to do. I’d like to see them tear it down and then give him all the minutes you want.
Well, Keon was the best 3pt shooting guy in the rotation and was an absolute pest on defense so maybe you characterizing him as 3rd string SG (from your post above) is just as extreme as comparing him to Ant, of which only you did.
He is a high effort and yes pesky on ball defender. I don’t find him to be a great off ball defender as he’s often out of position when guarding more than one pass away. As for his shooting, when left alone he’s a spotty shooter but has limited ability to put the ball on the floor and create a shot,
I’m pulling for him but let’s be realistic about his skill set. Brown used him appropriately and playing in a limited role is a lot different than heavy minutes against the opponents first unit. 3 and D is a very loose definition these days.
No he didn’t. He was better than Huerter and didn’t start,. What plainly stated was Brown preached Defense and 3 pt shooting . He was clearly better than Huerter in both areas and didn’t start and got DNP’s or less than10 minutes in several games . Made zero sense at the time and less looking back . Never compared him to Ant but think he has a chance to be a K. Caldwell-Pope caliber .
These is what happens when a team isn’t very good. The fans start looking for a shining light and then embellish that player until he becomes something more than he is. We did this with Holmes and Ellis worries me because I see a possible overpay coming.
As a middle to end bench player in a limited role I do like him and maybe he’ll develop further. As a starter at this point is a bit over the top. Now if we tear it down, play the hell out of him and see how he performs in heavy minutes. Asking a NBA player to go in there and bust his balls on defense for a few minutes and take uncontested open shots against the opponents second unit is a much easier assignment than playing 37 minutes a game effectively.
The guy is a role bench player at this point but if you believe he’s Caldwell Pope and it makes you feel better then continue to run with it. I’m not inhaling at this point.
Lastly, I’ve never made much of the coaching. Fans went crazy for Mike Brown at the beginning and I said the coaching really didn’t matter much because the marginal difference between NBA coaches is very small IMO. Heck Doc Rivers won a championship and he’s got to be in the lower 10% of NBA coaches. To blame Mike Brown on Keon’s usage is just la la land talk.
Blaming Brown is factual . Just keep inhaling !
Spotty shooter? Really? 49% from the field and 43% from 3. Come on man, you are just hating at this point.
He’s not a 3 way or even a 2 way scorer. He can shoot wide open set 3 pointers but doesn’t really present an overall offensive threat.
Let’s see, according to you he’s a great defender which he’s not and a great offensive weapon. I mean that makes him an all star instead of a mid bench reserve which he is. I like him for what he is and the role he can play, but this crap is over the top. I wonder why the rest of the NBA isn’t clamoring over this guy. You think it’s homer embellishment you might be portraying.
Will see what happens with his career but I highly doubt he ever arises to the pedestal you and your valet rock bottom have placed him on. I hope I’m wrong but I don’t see it. Not to say he can’t have a long NBA career as a role player.
you want to see real great defenders, watch these guys who do it for entire games not just short stints off the bench.
Dort, Caruso, McDaniels, Halliburton, Walker, Siakam, ANT, Bridges, J Williams and I’ll add SGA who goes under the radar regarding his defense. Gobert a bit overrated but still good.
and this is why the teams those players are on are still playing.
Now you are just putting words in my mouth. When did I ever say he was a great offensive weapon? I clearly compared him to KCP in this thread. You want another one…Doug Christie. Ellis is your 5th option on offense but he can shoot so well he keeps defenses honest. He’s not an all-star, not even close, and he probably doesn’t start on a lot of teams, but he’s the best backcourt defender this team has AND he was their best shooter, ergo the dude should be fucking starting and getting 30+ minutes on this team. You calling him an end of the bench player is utter nonsense and clearly comes from personal bias, but whatever floats your boat I guess.
I would come up with your own phrases – whatever floats your boat is someone else’s vernacular.
You said he should be a starter earlier and then said he’s a dog defender a 3 and D guy and pointed out some shooting statistics. If one didn’t know otherwise they would think you’re describing an all star. If he’s in your starting lineup playing over 30 plus minutes then your team is in rebuilding/tanking mode. Hopefully he becomes more than a mid bench player but using a small sample of stats against second units in non crunch time and running with it is faulty analysis. Also when you start debating in your mind if someone is a 2 or 3, your mind becomes is operating in the world of irrelevance.
Love me some Keon but I did realize the other day that he does have a tweener issue, that makes it difficult to start him. His size makes him a 1 or 2 but he doesn’t really run the point and distribute or score a lot like an off guard/shooting guard. He is also too small to start as a wing, though he can play a little wing. He’s a nice backup 2 that doesn’t score a lot but plays great D and can be a star role player. I just don’t see him being a star unless he can become a legit scorer. Love his game though.
Ok so here’s my purple colored glasses take for this team.
first, trade Demar. To Miami for Duncan Robinson and Jaime Jacquez should work.
second, sign a point guard. Any PG. there are a fair number of passable ones out there. For Kicks I’ll say Malcolm Brogdon
third: get a PF – move Keegan to the 3. This one is tougher – but I don’t hate resigning Tre Lyles.
Pg: Brogdon (other PG) – rumored interest in Drue Holiday is interesting / Devin Carter
SG: LaVine / Keon / Robinson
SF: Keegan / Jacquez
PF: Lyles / other PF
C: Sabonis / Valuncunias
Yes, this means not starting Keon, but injuries happen. Another option is work on Keon’s ballhandling so he can play PG. The other option is try to trade either Keon or LaVine for PF – say Collins.
Badge Legend