When considering trade assets for the Sacramento Kings, the most common names plugged into the trade machine are Kevin Huerter and Trey Lyles. The two were reportedly shopped dating back to last season’s trade deadline, and continue to be two of the Kings most likely to find a new home before the next deadline. But there are a couple of other Kings players that could have surprising value at the deadline, according to a theory put forth by Jake Fischer. Fischer is a tenured NBA reporter who most recently joined Marc Stein’s substack, and had an interesting article on a trade trend to monitor. The key detail around Fischer’s story is this:
Here’s the small print that inspired this whole piece: That wonkiest rule — let’s call it the One-Dollar Rule — gets suspended on Dec. 15. The date universally known as the unofficial start of NBA Trade Season, then, isn’t solely the day that numerous free agents signed in the summer become eligible for trade. It’s also the day that the One-Dollar Rule restricting the number of minimum contracts that can change hands in a trade gets lifted through the Feb. 6 trade deadline. From Dec. 15 until the trade buzzer sounds, teams can suddenly move as many minimums as they wish to help grease legal swaps.
Wonky, yes, but also important to file away.
Fischer expects that minimum contracts are going to be surprisingly valuable this year, and presumably going forward in this new CBA. While he discusses a few unique scenarios, the key idea is that with the salary matching requirements facing many teams, stacking minimum contracts is a valuable tool to reach matching for trades. Three-team trades to include additional minimum contracts could also be in play.
That could lead us to more three-team trades, like the creative route New York took to get Towns. I already wrote about the rise of multi-team deals last November. This season I’m anticipating second-apron teams like Milwaukee and Phoenix to scour the market for minimum-contract additions. Because any team, regardless of their cap situation, can always sign or trade for a player by way of the minimum exception. That doesn’t include two-ways converted into minimum contracts, like Grizzlies center Jay Huff, because Memphis technically used a piece of their mid-level exception to sign Huff. But any team can acquire or trade out players initially inked to a veteran’s minimum contract any time.
With this in mind, the Sacramento Kings have 5 minimum contracts on the book that may hold surprising value at the deadline.
Before I go into specifics a quick tip of the cap to Spotrac, the site I rely on for contract details for the Kings and every other team.
Colby Jones and Orlando Robinson
Colby Jones has two more seasons under contract, but neither is guaranteed at this point. He is guaranteed $1.1 million next season if not waived by 7/1/25, and the final year of the contract is a club option. Jones is a young player that a team can kick the tires on, still have team control over if they like what they see, but is essentially an expiring contract if the team decides they don’t like him. While we may be tired of watching Colby Jones minutes this season, he could prove an interesting inclusion in trade packages especially for rebuilding teams who don’t want to take on long term salary.
Orlando Robinson is an interesting trade chip based on his contract structure. Robinson is only guaranteed $500k of his $2.08 million contract, with the contract becoming fully guaranteed on 1/10/25. A team wanting to shed money for luxury tax purposes could acquire Robinson before January 10th and waive him, trading away guaranteed money for unguaranteed and reducing their cap hit. If Robinson isn’t traded before January 10th he’d still be an expiring contract. As an added bonus, Robinson will be a restricted free agent after the season, so if a team acquired him after 1/10 as an expiring contract but he ended up playing well, the acquiring team could still maintain player control.
The Rest of the Minimums
The Kings have several other minimum contract players that could be included in trades as well. Doug McDermott is also only guaranteed $750k with the same 1/10/25 guarantee date as Robinson, but due to when he was signed Doug cannot be traded until 1/16/25. While he doesn’t offer the same immediate savings options as Robinson, Doug does still come with a beneficial wrinkle. Despite making $3.3 million on his contract due to his years of experience in the NBA, Doug is still a minimum contract and only counts against the salary cap, luxury tax, and apron penalties for the standard $2.08 million.
Alex Len is fully guaranteed, but has the same benefits as McDermott. Len’s $3.3 million contract only counts as $2.08 million for cap purposes. Same for Jordan McLaughlin, who will make $2.4 million but counts for slightly less against the cap.
All together, the Kings have 5 minimum contracts that could be included in deals before the deadline (because he was signed later in the season Jae Crowder cannot be traded until 2/27/25, after the 2/6/25 deadline). If Fischer is right and minimum contracts become valuable, perhaps the Kings can use those contracts to improve the team or add some other assets to the war chest. Trade season unofficially kicks off on December 15th, when most players signed this past summer become trade eligible.
Greg, can you clarify, was the “one dollar rule” not at thing prior to this year? Were minimum contracts not allowed to be stacked in trade in prior seasons?
To clarify, any team either hard capped or over the aprons can trade for a minimum contract deal, even if it adds to this year’s total cap?
As an example, the Kings could send out say $20M in contracts (including a vet minimum deal or two) to a an apron team and only take back about $18M because of those vet minimum deals. This would allow the Kings to send out their non-guaranteed contracts (as you listed in the article) and an apron team could take on the additional salary, only to cut those players to save money.
I try to limit how much I quote things that are otherwise behind a paywall just out of respect for folks who are doing good work and trying to earn a living in this industry. Let me add some context from Fischer’s piece that got lost there with how I clipped the quotes.
Before that quoted part, Fischer had been discussing a rule that exists within the new CBA. Fischer explained that for most of the league calendar, “if a team aggregates the salaries of three or more players in a trade and the number of players that team acquires is less than that number of outgoing players, then no more than one of the outgoing players can be on a minimum contract”.
It was being referred to as the One Dollar Rule because the Knicks this summer found a loophole where they signed players to contracts $1 higher than the minimum and used them in the KAT trade.
For the minimums, even a team over the second apron can trade for a player on a minimum contract due to the minimum exception. He gives an example of Jose Alvarado, who is earning under the current minimum but has an extension coming up after this season. A second apron team could trade a first rounder (or more) for a player like him, and then have a bigger trade chip when his extension kicks in.
However, second apron teams can’t take back even $1 more than they send out. And they can’t aggregate players going out. But they can aggregate inbound players. So let’s use the Bucks as an example. If they were going to trade us Portis and wanted to shed salary, they could send us Portis for Lyles straight up. They take back $4.5M less, so it’s allowed. But then the Kings are in the tax. If the Kings want to avoid the tax, they Kings could trade Lyles, Colby, and Robinson. Lyles is expiring and Colby is essentially an expiring contract (as outlined above), and Robinson could be cut right away and save a ton of luxury tax for the Bucks.
Thank you for all that extra info! I had not heard about what the Knicks had done. Savvy as all get out.
Your last paragraph really answered a lot for me in terms of how the Kings non-guaranteed minimums can be worth their weight in gold to an apron team, especially ones off to a disappointing start like the Bucks or Nuggets.
Yeah. Especially for teams way above the luxury tax AND paying repeater taxes, every dollar saved on something like waiving Orlando Robinson would actually save $4. So acquiring Robinson and cutting him before his guarantee date would save the Bucks over $6 million.
McDermott and Orlando combined could save a team a ton of tax money. I’d be looking at Philly, who’s in the tax, to be selling off some of their role players. The Kings non-guaranteed deals for a guy like Kenyon Martin Jr. could help bolster the depth.
thanks for the info. I was wondering what the options are if the team is to sign Isaac Jones to a roster deal.
I am glad Mcnair and his staff are the experts with these rules. I find them to be the source of boredom and constant doubt about what can or cannot happen.
Thank you for explaining this part of the agreements and how that might impact this team. While ignoring the minutia that does not pique my interest I did learn that this team has the opportunity to turn over the bottom of the roster that has not performed or simply does not fit here for whatever reason. This team definitely lacks depth. The ability to move two or three players and in return get a decent player that fits is a great opportunity for this team.
Sadly, the new CBA is so complicated that it’s nearly impossible for a casual fan to know what can or can’t be done. I spend a lot of time trying to make sure I’m not getting things wrong, and I’m sure I still am. The new CBA made it way too messy.
Enough to get Bobby Portis?
Lyles plus a minimum or two would be about equal salary in the trade. Portis makes 12.5m. Lyles is at 8m plus 2 minimum guys around 2.08m each is ~12.2m. That might not entice the Bucks, but that would rid them of Portis player option next season of 13.4m.
*** check my math***
If a supposed contending team like the Bucks are willing to sell low on Portis for Lyles and some vet minimum deals, is he really gonna move the needle that much, or is it just the Bucks getting desperate financially?
I wouldn’t expect the Bucks to make that deal. Just an exercise in using the vet minimums.
I was on Portis island for a long time as a trade target, but like you stated, at this point Portis doesn’t move the needle much.
Portis would be great to get but I think we would be renting him for the remainder of the season. Next season is his option if I remember correctly. Losing Lyles and a couple of the other bottom of the roster players is not a big deal in my opinion. If he decides to leave the team is not gutted. A power forward is definitely a need unless Keegan gets back to his usual production.
Beyond this one sided point of view we have to understand that the Bucks are not waving the white flag this season. Probably more important in the considerations of the Bucks is that Lyles provides nothing for them.
trading off role players and one dollar players for other tole pieces and one dollar players from other teams would make cents. (sorry).
I’m of the belief that the Kings top 5 core players – Ox, Fox, Monk, Keegan, Deebo seem set and not only aren’t going anywhere, but are “underwinning” if such a term exists, given their substantial level of talent.
I don’t know that a new gaggle of players would fit better, worse, or not at all, but there is last season’s Dallas cohesion that everyone will always look toward for hopes and dreams for a better tomorrow.
Now – how would Coach Brown handle rotations for any new additions?
Your guess is as good as mine.
underwinning as opposed to underperforming.
Their numbers tell a different tale. The sum of the parts is less than the whole.
The shooting is the easiest and most glaring deficit (and thankfully, somewhat countered by the welcome increase in free throw percentage)- and that’s just offense.
Would new role players fix that? And also fix the defense?
I really like the underwinning definition and the sum of the parts is less than the whole. The perfectly describes the Kings current roster, IMO. I compare that to the Kings playoff season from two years ago where I’d define them as the sum was greater than their parts on their way to the #3 seed.
unsynergistic, lol
KOC covered the Kings current state on his recent pod and urged the FO to blow it up. And as my recent comments have suggested, I feel the same.
He pointed out how teams that were recently behind us have now surpassed us (HOU, SAS, MeM, etc) and that our core can’t compete for a title, so what’s the point.
We can obtain a haul for our four best players and rebuild around Ellis, KM and DC and picks. The next two drafts are loaded. Do what Hou and Okc did and haul picks.
KoC also posited SAS as a landing spot for Fox, pair Fox and Wemby and Fox can learn something from CP. SAS has young players and a load of picks to offer.
I know a blow it up scenario won’t happen, but Fox, Domas, DDR and Monk would return a crap ton of assets.
Again, imo the Fox and Ox core will never sniff an NBA Finals, so what’s the point of holding on to this core?
So all but 5-8 teams (maybe?) Should be blowing it up or continuing a rebuild?
-Boston
-OKC
-Lakers (just because AD and LeBron)
-Suns (Booker and KD)
-Bucks (maybe?)
-Nuggets (except Murray has been bad for a while)
-Orlando, Knicks and Cleveland are getting there, but haven’t taken the next step.
Some fringe duos might be in there, but that’s a lot of teams that are needing to blow it up and look for future assets, according to KOC.
Good to remember that people said the Celtics should blow up the Tatum/Brown duo because it would never win a title.
Yup. They kept adding until they got the right group of players (that Jrue trade was a freaking steal).
The Jrue trade, the White trade, and the Zinger trade all have paid off in dividends for them
And their coaches (and GM) changed.
Brief History of the Celtics
Harken back to 2020-21
HC Brad Stevens, GM Danny Ainge
record: 36-36 (COVID) (7th in EC)
Roster: Tatum, Brown, Smart, Pritchard, Grant Williams, Robert Williams, Tack Fall, Fournier, Luke Kornet, Kemba Walker.
2021-22
HC Ime Udoka GM Brad Stevens
record: 51-31 (2nd in EC)
Roster: no Kemba. Added Sam Hauser and Denis Schroeder and Al Horford
2022-23
HC Joe Mazzulla GM Brad Stevens
record: 57-25 (2nd in EC)
Roster: added Derrick White, Blake Griffin, Malcolm Brogdon
2023-24
HC Joe Mazzulla GM Brad Stevens
record: 64-18
roster:added Neemias Queta… and Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingas
Trophy Time Banner # 18
That’s 4 seasons. With Danny Ainge and Brad Stevens as GM. With 3 different coaches. With an large roster turnover but also keeping many pieces in place (you’ve all seen the emergence this season of Peyton Pritchard) super acquisitions.
But that is a lot of maneuvering in Boston (not Sacramento)
Takes time, patience, smarts, luck- and even then.
I like our competitive Kings team, and expect better and more. Blowing it up with Ranadive and Brown and McNair – hard NO. I am delighted they’ve gone this far
The Kings version: I’ll leave out roster
2020-21
HC Luke Walton GM Monte McNair
31-51 (12th in WC)
2021-22
HC Luke Walton (6-11) Alvin Gentry (24-41) GM: Monte McNair
record: 30-52 12th in WC
2022-23
HC Mike Brown GM: Monte McNair
record: 48-34 3rd in WC
2023-24
HC Mike Brown GM: Monte McNair
record: 46-36 9th in WC
Conclusion: The Sacramento Kings are not The Boston Celtics
The Kings are a competitive, still figuring it out (and IMO, going to figure it out, tweaks needed) likable cast of characters of a team.
Comparing Tatum/Brown who had been in countless ECFs and deep playoff runs to Fox/Ox who have never won a playoff series is apple and oranges and a weak argument.
Sure. Unless you count degree of difficulty. Put the Kings in the East and I think Fox and Sabonis would have a lot more playoff wins under their belts.
But the main point is that even with much more success there were people saying Boston needed to blow up that duo because they would never win a title.
My $0.02 on this are pretty simple; I am tired of being bad, mediocre, and uninspiring. Up until the last couple years, the last time the Kings were good was when I was in middle school. Right now, does this team profile as a quote/unquote championship contender? No. But league history is littered with upsets, spoilers, and teams that catch lightning in a bottle and ride it all the way to the top. I don’t think a single person thought at the start of last season that Dallas, who had just missed the playoffs completely, would run all the way to the Finals. Toronto’s championship run was a couple bad bounces on the rim away from being ended by Philly. Miami recently battled all the way from the play-in to the Finals. The We Believe Warriors smacked #1 Dallas as the 8th seed years ago.
Personally, I want to see how this season and next play out. We’ve underperformed and had lackluster games this season, but I’m still tuning in to every game and mostly enjoying it, and that’s what it’s really about, right? Enjoy the game. Besides, tanking and asset accumulation is no guarantee either. Just look at how The Process has played out in Philly.
This team isn’t perfect and it needs some change, but I’d rather see them try and go for broke at this point than throw in the towel.
I agree. The Kings need some changes to personnel or play style, but blowing it all up might be a bit premature.
I think DeRozan has been a weird fit, and the role players haven’t figured out how to be good on a consistent basis.
The team could go on a 10-2 stretch and turn the season the around, if everything starts to fall in place and work (I won’t hold my breath though).
My problem this season is that the games haven’t been necessarily “fun” to watch. Mostly I am filled with disappointment and aggravation.
Absolutely agree on the last point. Of the last three seasons, this has been the least fun to watch so far, but at least unlike other seasons, there’s still a glimmer of hope tuning in each night. The 2010s involved a lot of soap opera hate watching, tuning in wondering what historic feat the Kings were going to let the opponents have.
If the Kings – Blow it Up
Pick your powder: trade Domas, Fox, Deebo and Monk (do I have that right?)
ok… you have set the fuse and lit the match over, say 2.5 seasons to do that? 1.5 seasons? 3?
You’ve traded for young pieces and during these down years (the record is worse, you all know that, the tank is rolling) you see some emerging talent, maybe you hit a draft pick during that phase. Mostly hits on the new picks, some meh, okay?
Ranadive fires/hires new GM. Ranadive/GM fire Mike Brown after 2 seasons and hires … ? because they’ve hired well before, shouldn’t be a problem, amirite?
Using the visage of today, is this rebuild that you imagine going to be closest to:
A) OKC
B) Houston
C) San Antonio
D) Orlando
E) Philadelphia
F) Minnesota
G) Utah
H) Portland
I) Detroit
J) Washington
I’d say… Detroit most likely. The Kings had the chance to be Minnesota but chose to go Bagley III. Also, for reference on Hinkie and Phila. Embiid was drafted in 2014. If it clicked just right, maybe the Kings could be Orlando but in the Western Conference. Maybe Houston – but as Shania says “that don’t impress me much”
Maybe my Kings purple colored lenses are shading my view- but this frustrating season should, but doesn’t have to, get better.
Oh! +1:
Is the timing of this rebuild factoring in what may be or not be, League expansion to 32 teams?
and the pick swap of 2031.
and another +1 +1
add Jordi’s Brooklyn to the rebuild list
Just playing Devil’s advocate, but I think Philly’s “Process” was the blueprint for teams like OKC, Houston, Brooklyn, Spurs and Utah. Philly made some bad choices for all to learn from, but I think showed how a rebuild can be done quickly and effectively.
And the process was thwarted by the league by forcing Sam Hinkie out. There were some bad decisions after he was fired that out his process in jeopardy.
Not saying they would have won a title or anything, just that he didn’t get to see it through.
I think they definitely created a blueprint, but I’d say all the other teams who followed it were the ones who figured out how to make it quick and effective, because with the benefit of hindsight, those are two words I wouldn’t apply to Philly’s rebuild.
Plus, I think we could find agreement that maybe some of it is just bad luck, because it seems clearer now that Embiid is not that guy.
I don’t put much weight in KOC’s analysis of the Kings. He’s been doubling down against the Kings ever since the Sabonis trade.
“Kings need to upgrade from Sabonis at Center” -KOC
How are they going to get Jokic or Embiid (who isnt better anymore because he can’t get on the court)?
Agreed. I also don’t think the Spurs need to go star hunting. They have a solid young core and potentially have 4 first round picks this summer. I don’t think Fox moves the needle one bit for them and I also don’t think he’d work well next to Wemby. KOC just seems to produce a lot of outlandish stuff in recent months to get eyes and ears.
Has KoC been wrong? We have no playoff series wins to show for that trade. His stance in “blow it up” is with the position that this core will never compete for a ship, not that this core can’t be solid or good or win some games in the playoffs. But the ultimate goal is to win a title and with Fox and Ox essentially on super maxes after this season, I don’t see it.
What is a reasonable amount of time to give a group of players before it is decided that things need to be blown up?
Are titles the only barometer for success?
That’s the goal is not?
I’d say we regressed the last two years then progressed
Were the Jazz with Malone and Stockton successful? Should they have been blown it up after a handful of seasons?
The goal should always be to win a title. You can have a successful season and still not reach the ultimate goal of a title. Put the best possible team out there that you can and compete. You ay get a title or not.
The Kings have regressed since 22-23 season for many reasons. Fox and Sabonis aren’t the reasons they have regressed. Supporting cast hasn’t been good. Coaching hasn’t been good. This season has shown us what happens when role players aren’t playing well and the coach is proving to be under performing.
Fox is not on a supermax yet, it remains to be seen if he’ll even qualify for it. And if he does, that doesn’t guarantee he gets the full amount of it (although it would be likely he’d get the full amount).
Sabonis is not on a supermax, essentially or otherwise. This season he’s the 26th highest contract in the NBA and will continue to slide down those rankings. Having one player in the top 30 (Fox after extension) and another in the 30-45 range (Sabonis after this season) is very reasonable when you have two top 45 players.
And yes, he’s wrong. It was a win-win trade for both teams. Playoff series wins as a barometer of success of one trade is a bullshit standard, I’m sorry. There are so many things that have contributed to the Kings not winning a playoff series the last two seasons (roster construction, injuries, Curry dropping a 50 piece in game 7, Barnes missing a last second three that would have changed the entire Warriors series) and pretty much none of it falls on Sabonis.
And De’Aaron Fox is exactly the type of star you build a contender around. Top 10 in scoring this season. 26.6 pts, 5.9 assists, 5 rebounds, 1.8 steals per game, and capable of completely taking over games. You want to blow it up to get a star, not appreciating the star we already have, the exact type of player you’d be hoping to land in a rebuild.
I think that is the point of contention and discussion these days, and will continue to be if/when Fox signs that extension. I, for one, think it’s hard to make that case when the Kings have had so little success with him as their #1.
Building around a player who puts up eye popping box scores but hasn’t proven to be a winner or make those around him better could be a flawed strategy. I point no further than DeMarcus Cousins, who put up bigger numbers with more accolades than Fox has accomplished in more time as a King.
Vlade, for all his faults, was in a very similar situation with DMC as Monte is with Fox. Do you go into the offseason with your star player entering his final season under contract and a max extension looming, or do you cash in your chips?
Fox is in year 9 I believe and been to the playoffs once and fans still think he’s someone you build a contender around, makes no sense. It’s Big Cuz 2.0.
Year 8, but your point stands. I also get Greg’s point that the Kings can afford to have Fox and Sabonis on max deals, and independently they deserve them. If they miss the playoffs again, however, the question is SHOULD the Kings pay to have both on the roster. I honestly can’t think of any teams that have built around and paid for two max contract players but continue to miss the playoffs.
IMO, If you are missing the playoffs with those kinds of contracts on your roster, you are doing things wrong.
You evaded my point about comparing the big 2 of BOS to our big 2 by going off on specifics of contracts.
The point remains, BOS’ big two earned the right to stay together with repeated deep playoff runs whilst our big 2 have accomplished nothing when it comes to the playoffs.
To boot, Brown and Tatum have never missed the playoffs.
Trae Young has been to the playoffs three times, including a Conference Finals run. And he’s been in the league one less year than Fox. And he’s definitely been the number one option on those teams. Is Trae Young better than Fox? Or has he had better teams around him and played in a weaker conference?
Playoff win totals as a way of evaluating a single player leaves an awful lot of context on the sidelines of the analysis.
I don’t know about better, but he’s different. He’s more of a traditional PG that can lead the league in assists.
In terms of salary, he’s worth a max deal, just like Fox, but that’s not the issue I have. My concern is having Sabonis and Fox locked up as your two max to near max deals, but they haven’t really had success.
Of course that could all change if the Kings make a playoff run this year. If so, then build around those two no matter the cost. If, however, the team underperforms and continues to do worse than last year, why are you investing the future into both of them.
As to playoff win total, if you are about to give one of the largest contacts in NBA history to a guy who hasn’t won a thing in 8 years, I question your sanity, no matter how good we may think he is. Better players have been traded after accomplishing a lot more, so by no means is Fox some untouchable super star.
Not arguing that he’s an untouchable superstar. I’m saying that “accomplishing a lot more” is dependent on a lot of things. Supporting roster, which conference you play in, etc.
For sure, but Fox is currently playing with the best cast of characters he’s ever had. As an example Trae Young hasn’t shared the court (and cap sheet) with a guy like Sabonis.
If Fox can’t lead this current squad into an impressive playoff run why is he deserving of a possible super max deal? The truth is, if the plan is to pay him that much, is he really all that deserving of it.
A title isn’t the Kings goal though. It’s to sell tickets to their new arena. A rebuild probably helps their chances of a title, but kills their ticket sales. They won’t do it.
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