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Why it makes sense for Rudy Gay to opt out of his final year, and why he could still re-sign with the Kings

Rudy Gay has to make one of the biggest decisions of his life in the next couple months, and it could mean leaving a lot of money on the table.
By | 0 Comments | Feb 27, 2019

With all that being said, $19.3 million is still a lot more than anybody is going to offer Rudy next year, and it's possible that should he opt in, he'll still get a good contract offer next season.  Of course, that comes with its own inherent risks, as he'll be a year older, might not play as well, or suffer a big injury which will drastically lower any potential new contracts.

Recently, we've begun to hear some speculation, mainly on local radio like the Grant Napear show, that Rudy will opt out.  It's important to note that this is all speculation and Napear has said multiple times that it's just his opinion.  Carmichael Dave has also voiced a similar opinion.

I'm inclined to agree with them, for a few reasons.

Second, Rudy is set to be a much bigger name free agent this year than he would be in 2015, even if he manages to duplicate the success he had this year.  Take a look at some of the likely top names that will be available this summer and then compare it to the list of likely FAs next year.

Now to be fair to the 2014 Free Agents, many of the 2015 free agents could be off the list as soon as next year thanks to extensions on rookie contracts (Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson for example), and I also left off possible free agents like Miami's big 3 simply because I don't see them leaving Miami.  The point is that Rudy is a much more prominent free agent this summer than he'd likely be next year.  Right now the only real big names among wings this summer are Luol Deng, Carmelo (who will likely stay in New York), and Gordon Hayward (who Utah will likely match any offer on).  I guess you could throw in Trevor Ariza with that group after his much improved year in Washington.  I'm not including Paul Pierce because he's largely a role player at this stage in his career.

Finally, opting out also puts some pressure on the Kings to retain him and could drive up his overall market value.  Even if Rudy wants to stay with the Kings, it'd make sense for him to test the market and put some pressure on the Kings' side to try to get a deal done, perhaps to guarantee an extra year (something only the Kings can do) or some more salary.  Small market teams typically tend to overpay for premier free agents, even when retaining their own.  Of course this point could be rendered moot if he simply doesn't want to stay with the Kings and wants to go elsewhere.

Should Rudy Gay opt out, it's not the end of the world for the Kings.  It doesn't even mean that he's necessarily leaving the Kings either, although it decreases the chances drastically.  Rudy leaving still wouldn't be terrible for the Kings, although retaining him is much preferable.  At worst, the trade that acquired Rudy Gay allowed the Kings to save some long term money by shedding the contracts of Chuck Hayes and John Salmons.  Without Gay, the Kings will once again be looking for an answer at Small Forward, but will have plenty of cap space and flexibility to do so in the next few years.  They could even be poised to make a big splash in the crowded 2015 free agent market themselves, or use their newfound flexibility to make a similar trade to the one that brought Gay to Sacramento in the first place.

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