NBA Position: PG
General Information: 20-year-old sophomore, played at Vanderbilt. From Metuchen, NJ.
Measurables: 6'4", 202 lbs, 6'11.2" wingspan, 8'4" standing reach, 32.5' no step vertical, 38' max vertical.
2015-16 Season Statistics: 14.1 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 5.2 APG, 1.2 SPG, 0.3 BPG, 2.8 TOPG (35 games played, 30.4 minutes per contest) - 42.7% FG, 79.9% FT, 40.6% 3P
Summary:
Baldwin is a physically gifted player with a good first step, insane length and a good success rate from three, but lacks consistency in his court vision, ball handling, and ability to create his own shot. He switches between looking like a future star and looking like a sure lottery bust. If he can develop his raw gifts and gain significant court awareness, he could be an above-average NBA point guard, but that is a moderately sized if.
Offensive Breakdown:
His numbers also dropped against better competition; against Tennessee, Florida, Detroit, Wake Forest, and Stony Brook (only Stony Brook made the tournament), he averaged 21.4 points on 60% shooting, while against Texas, Kentucky, Wichita State, Kansas, and Texas A&M (all tournament teams), he averaged 9.8 points on 34% shooting. Two pieces of good news - his assist numbers stayed consistent despite his opponents, and Vanderbilt won one of those contests against then 5th ranked Texas A&M (Baldwin had 17 points and 8 assists). Still, the noticeable drop against higher tier opponents (all who had solid, potentially NBA level guards) is a major worry.
Defensive Breakdown:
Much like his offense, Baldwin has significant potential as a defender but lacks the discipline to be an immediate contributor. This is a standard weakness for collegiate players, and especially so in this class. Baldwin is developing solid ball-hawking skills, and with his 6'11 wingspan and quick hands, this could be a serious strength. He's an engaged defender a majority of the time, but he tends to get discouraged and is too prone to inaction.
Baldwin's 11.1% total rebounding rate is very solid for a guard, and he could be a serious rebounding threat in the NBA thanks to his length and 38' inch max vertical.
Intangibles:
Baldwin is an enigma who can look like a future star one moment and a basketball newbie the next. Two back-to-back plays I remember from Vanderbilt/Kansas capture this best - on the first play, he got by his defender, contorted his body to block out two rim defenders, and used his long arms for a highlight spinning lay-up. The next play, he dribbled out the clock, fail to see two open teammates at the top of the paint, and forced up a contested mid-range jumper that barely grazed the rim. All of his weaknesses are curable with a few years of development, but I think he'll disappoint if he's expected to be an immediate contributor. Regardless, his fuller range of developing skills give him a moderately high ceiling, and in a class full of project players Baldwin certainly belongs in the lottery conversation.
Fit with Sacramento:
Baldwin has the length and shooting ability to play off the ball, but aside from proven success as a catch-and-shoot longballer, he was never asked to consistently play off the ball. His excellent length and quick first step will help him in guarding some two-guards, and I think he has the most defensive potential of the point guard class not named Dunn.
As always, check out the DraftExpress breakdowns.
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