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NBA Draft 2016 Scouting Profile: Denzel Valentine

Michigan State Senior Denzel Valentine checks every box the Kings could want in a player on offense. Could the team cover up his defensive limitations enough to justify selecting him at #8?
By | 0 Comments | Mar 6, 2019

NBA Position: SG/SF/PG

General Information: 22 year old senior, played at Michigan State. From Lansing, Michigan. 2016 AP Player of the Year.

Measurables: 6'5.75", 210 pounds, 6'10.75" wingspan, 8'6" standing reach, 27' no step vertical, 32' max vertical

2014-15 Season Statistics: 19.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 7.8 APG, 1.0 SPG, .2 BPG, 2.7 TOPG (33.0 minutes per contest) -€” 46.2% FG, 85.3% FT, 44.4% 3P, 57.9% TSP

Summary:

Valentine is a player who represents the best that the full-NCAA experience offers the NBA; he's an older senior (still only 22!), and while he doesn't have the athletic luster of his peers, he provides hallmark traits across the board. He's an excellent shooter with crafty footwork and deep range, and also proved to be one of the smartest passers in the game. He'll have serious defensive limitations in the NBA in isolation, but that won't be from lack of effort. He's proven to be one of the hardest workers in college basketball, and has made major improvements throughout his career; skills that were weaknesses in his freshman year (shooting ability, range, ball-handling) are now what define him as a prospect.

Offensive Breakdown:

In a league that demands more playmakers spread across the offense, Valentine's court-awareness and proven success in a motion offense cannot be undersold. Valentine wasn't even supposed to be the primary ball-handler for the Spartans this year; he took over due to injury, and morphed into one of the best floor leaders in the country. He finished the year with a 28.4% usage rate, a 45.8% assist rate, and a surprisingly low (given his usage in the offense) 14.8% turnover rate, which equated to a near 3/1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He showed great command of Michigan State's offense and consistently made the smart, correct play on offense.

Valentine will not need to command the ball to be dangerous. his shooting makes him a serious off-ball threat, both with his feet set and on-the-move. 52% of his shots were from three, and he sank 44% of them. His quick footwork broke defenders constantly, and even with guys glued to him, he showed an ability to knock down step-backs and faders. He was a major threat in the pick-and-role thanks to his dangerous range and his ability to dump the ball over the defense.

While he showed good ability to get into the paint in college thanks to his great footwork, he may need to focus on his shooting and limit his drives due to his lack of speed. He also never showed consistent ability in the one-on-one, and the speed and length of the NBA game might disrupt his passing skills. Valentine will be a serious weapon on offense in the NBA, but he's going to have to understand his physical limitations. Regardless of these weaknesses, it's impossible to gamble against such a hard-worker… at least on offense.

Defensive Breakdown:

Any Tom Izzo star is expected to give total effort on the defensive end of the court, and despite playing such a massive role in the offense, Valentine was never a sub-par defender due to intensity. Unfortunately, neither his body nor his awareness equal his effort levels; Michigan State did have to hide him on defense.

Intangibles:

While the first round loss to Middle Tennessee was a shockingly disappointing end to his career, Valentine was a model four-year starter who was the heart and soul of one of the best programs in the county. Tom Izzo has produced NBA talent before, and showed near-absolute confidence in Valentine.

It would be irresponsible for an NBA squad to bank on Valentine as a focal point of a team; rather, he's a player who can take a developing team to the next level. Valentine will have serious worth in the NBA small-ball era—he'll present a capable shooter and ball-handler on offense, and a determined defender on the other. Valentine has a strong history of exceeding expectations through his hard work and smart play; he doesn't have the NBA body to be a superstar, but he'll provide value regardless.

While his talents will be much better suited to an NBA offense, teams will need to be aware of his defensive limitations; his lack of burst and lateral quickness is much harder to hide on defense than on offense. If he's surrounded by great athletes who can complement his ball-handling and cover up his defensive issues, he could be regarded as a steal of the draft. He's got a much higher floor than some of the players in the 8th-14th range, and would be a smart pick as long as a team has the foundation to utilize his skills and doesn't need him to be the focal point.

Fit with Sacramento:

Valentine has skills the Kings would absolutely love to add; he's an unselfish playmaker, a great ballhandler who can play multiple positions, and he's a lights-out shooter. He checks every box the Kings could want on offense. But I don't believe the Kings can cover his defensive weaknesses enough for him to be a valuable pick over the other prospects in his draft range.

As always, check out the DraftExpress breakdowns;

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