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A Look Back at Recent NBA Draft Lottery Classes

By | 0 Comments | Feb 19, 2019

For bad teams, the NBA Draft is a beacon of hope, a chance to get that one of a kind player that can alter franchise history. In no other sport can a single player have such a huge impact on a team, and it's no surprise that the greatest dynasties are often built around a great player(s) that that team drafted.

With the lottery in mind, I thought I'd take a look at 10 past drafts (not including last years) to see just how good the players in the lottery have been, and what the average chance of getting a good or great player has been.

2001:

Superstars: None

2002:

Above Average: Nene (7th)

2003:

2004:

2005:

2006:

Superstars: None

2007:

2008:

2009:

Superstars: None Yet

2010:

Superstars: None Yet

Stars: None Yet

Analysis:

Players Drafted: 140

Total Superstars: 8 (5.7%)

Average Pick for Superstars: 3.3

Total All-Stars: 19 (13.6%)

Average Pick for All-Stars: 4.3

Total Above Average: 27 (19.3%)

Average Pick for Above Average Players: 6.1

Total Average: 35 (25.0%)

Average Pick for Average Players: 9.3

Total Busts: 51 (36.4%)

Average Pick for Busts: 8.8

Superstars from 2001-2010 Drafted Outside the Lottery: None

So yeah, the lottery is kind of a big deal when you're looking for impact players. As the saying goes, the cream rises to the top, and it's no wonder that nearly every superstar drafted over the past 10 years was chosen in the Top 5 (way to ruin it Amare). The All-Star were similarly drafted very high, with an average pick of 4.3 meaning most were also picked in the Top 5. There were a similar amount of All-Stars drafted outside of the lottery as in it, but there was also a greater ratio of one-time All-Stars in that group.

An interesting number though is the fact that the average pick for Busts is higher than the average pick for average players. That's because almost every year there is a player in the Top 5 who completely fails. In this sample, 7 of the 10 years had at least one top-5 pick as a bust, and all 10 years had at least one or more top-5 picks as a bust or average. Considering a top-5 pick is your greatest chance at a star, that really hurts.

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