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2022 NBA Draft Profile: AJ Griffin

Duke forward AJ Griffin is an elite deep shooter with real promise as a shot creator, and offers excellent upside for any team needing floor spacing. He's a poor defender and is a risky pick for a win-now team, but with patience and a strong developmental system, he could be one of the top players in this draft class.
By | 41 Comments | May 26, 2022

Jan 4, 2022; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward AJ Griffin (21) dunks during the second half against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

NBA Position: Small Forward

General Info: 18-year-old Freshman, played at Duke University. Second youngest prospect likely selected in the lottery range. From White Plains, New York.

Measurables: 6’6, 225 lbs, 6’11 wingspan.

2021-22 Season Statistics: 10.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.0 APG, 0.5 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 0.6 TPG (39 games played, 24.0 minutes a contest), 49.3% FG, 44.7% 3P, 79.2% FT

All hyperlinks in this profile are video clips showcasing the skills discussed.

One glance at AJ Griffin’s statsheet and it’s easy to find the numbers that have helped him generate lottery buzz for the 2022 NBA Draft. Standing at 6’6 and with strength and size few 18-year-olds can match, Griffin hit 44.7% of his 159 three point attempts for Duke this year and is one of the best shooters among recent drafts. While he was mostly stuck in the wings and corners as a catch-and-shoot sniper, his shot creation skills go well beyond that role. That said, his game is raw in multiple areas and he lacks any assured impacts besides his shooting range and shot-making skills. He’ll need a strong development plan from the start and isn’t without major risks, but I think Griffin can be the draft’s surprise star that is hidden in plain sight.

Watch everything AJ does in the above clip – relocates as Trevor Keels pushes the defense towards the rim, catches a messy pass, sidesteps, and nails the tough three in motion. He’s got the makings of an advanced deep shot creator, and has a shooting touch few 18-year-olds could dream of.

Griffin’s unique shooting stroke has made him a truly efficient deep shooter at every level of competition he’s played at, and as the son of  10-year NBA veteran Adrian Griffin (current lead assistant coach for the Toronto Raptors), he’s been on the NBA radar for a long while. It’s easy to doubt his shot in the moment when focusing on his mechanics

When you focus on his mechanics—his wide-base stance and glide-hand clutch—it’s easy to doubt in the moment that his is the form of an elite shooter. But he’s not hiding these percentages on low volume, and BOY do the efficiency rates back him up.

  • 45.6% shooter on all jumpshots in the halfcourt, 97th percentile (169 possessions)
  • 45.7% shooter on all catch-and-shoot shots in the half court, 95th percentile (105 possessions, accounting for 42.2% of his offenses workload)
  • 45.3% shooter on all jumpers off the dribble, 95th percentile (64 possessions)
  • 46.3% shooter on ALL possessions in the halfcourt, 99th percentile (291 possessions)
  • 79.2% from the free throw line on 53 attempts
  • 49.3% on all shots on the season, 292 attempts

TLDR: Griffin’s shooting analytics are insane and not just some low-volume trickery. Take that for data.

While his shooting mechanics are odd, his movement around the floor  truly looks the part of an elite shooter. He’s got advanced off-ball instincts, relocating around the arc to keep up with the offense, spin the defense, or give the ballhandler the obvious play. He isn’t a shooter who waits for the ball to come to him; he works to make it happen.

Coach Mike Krzyzewski stuck Griffin into the wings and corners and didn’t frequently expand on his catch-and-shoot role, aside from some dribble hand-off plays (a play he should see much more of in the NBA). Given that big man Paolo Banchero and all of Duke’s top players demanded various amounts of attempts and attention under the three point line, it’s easy to understand why… again, 95th percentile for catch-and-shoot shots! And these aren’t just simple attempts with tons of space and zero flexibility demanded. If the shooting window closes and a defender is in his face, he’s just gonna shoot over them anyways, thanks to his long arms and high release point.

But Griffin isn’t just an open catch-and-shoot dude. He’s a dangerous shooter off of movement, and has real one-on-one shot making upside. His dribbling ability is strong for his age; this combo against Miami in the ACC Tournament is a thing of beauty, and he kept Charlie Moore stuck shying off of him.

And this shot creation ability isn’t just a perimeter skill; he has some real standout moments in isolation, with strong balance and good footwork. Griffin has a pretty promising turnaround shot that won’t be easily blocked. He can’t create a ton of space due to his lack of burst, but he’s got excellent touch and can get a good shot off even without a created advantage. Of course, he can get overly ambitious with his dribble and get himself into bad positions and without a pass out. But in time, I believe in his shot-creation upside and trust in his shooting touch.

Griffin also has some drives to the basket that hint at three-level scoring. When he gets a step on his defenders, he does a good job of walling them off, and he can power through physical defense and finishing through contact. His driving game was limited by Duke’s cramped, Banchero-centric offense; per Synergy Sports, only 57 of Griffin’s shot attempts in the half court came around the basket (although he was efficient, 88th percentile for success). That said, he may not inspire fear in rim protectors early in his career. While he can muscle past or through many college defenders, his lackluster first step is limiting and he doesn’t beat many opponents to the basket. He’s absolutely a two-foot leaper, and cannot explode up and through bigs. He’s not going to generate advantages without some help from an offensive gameplan, but if NBA physical training helps him improve his first step at all, he’s got the strength and length to be tough to contain going downhill.

Unfortunately, the rest of Griffin’s game is much less concrete. For one, he’s not a natural playmaker for others, and seems to default to getting the ball back to his initiators. In this play, he gets doubled by Miami, hesitates to make the pass to an open Mark Williams, and defaults to getting the ball back to Banchero. With the ball in his hands, he’s apt to flash his dribbling ability, and if no advantage arises, he immediately passes out of it, sometimes causing turnovers. While Duke  had multiple playmakers, Griffin was not one of them, and averaged just 1.6 assists per 40 minutes. While his shooting touch will earn him a role early in his career, he’ll need to show he can make better reads before he’ll earn a real part on an NBA offense.

Griffin is also a poor defender at this stage of his career, and there are no quick fixes to his issues. To his credit, he was almost always engaged on defense across the games I watched—praise I cannot give to Jaden Ivey or Benedict Mathurin (or Shaedon Sharpe at the high school level)—but Griffin really struggles in multiple ways to stick with his matchups. He’s regularly taken advantage of in space and in traffic. He routinely gets taken out of the play by screens and doesn’t often know what to do when that happens. He takes bad angles on the perimeter and lacks the quick hip flips or foot speed to stop opponents once they are level with him. If the ball handler gets a step on him, he often straight up fouls to stop the drive. And he can get stuck ballwatching and lose his man on a cut.

His strength at 6’6 does show up on his tape, and he’s tough and doesn’t back down from physicality or the switches that teams threw at him. But his slow feet and lack of flexibility makes him a current liability on the perimeter. Sacramento is so desperately in need of a consistent 3-and-D forward, but Griffin would only provide half of that combo early in his career. I’d like to believe that, given his motor, strength, and physicality (and being the son of a coach who works for one of the better defensive teams in the league), he’s aware of his defensive liabilities and knows he won’t earn big minutes until that changes… but significant improvement is hardly a guarantee.

It should be pointed out that Griffin missed a lot of basketball in the final years of his high school career. He sat for most of his junior year after a knee injury, and then missed all of his senior season as New York shut down during the COVID pandemic. As such, perhaps some of his more instinctual issues on both ends—seeing the right passing reads, defensive angles, and what to do about screens, etc.—are exacerbated by the loss of two years of player development.

His history of ailments (most recently a late 2021 offseason knee sprain that contributed to a slow start to his Duke season) may give some teams real pause, especially considering his athletic stiffness. Earlier in his high school career, Griffin was much more vertically explosive, and then showed up at Duke with massive muscle gain (and Kings fans can think of a very recent example of how sudden muscle growth can impact a player’s agility). Hopefully, given time and an NBA physical training staff, Griffin finds some more flexibility and speed on both ends of the court – but that’s no sure thing, and shouldn’t be counted on to an extreme degree.

It takes some real imagination to see AJ Griffin in purple and black. I fully believe he’ll be an immediate impact shooter, and even if he again gets stuck in the wings and corners, his catch-and-shoot skill alone will earn him minutes. Aside from Harrison Barnes, Griffin would be the best shooter on the Kings from day 1. Sacramento desperately needs a high-octane bomber to fit next to De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, and aside from Jabari Smith Jr., Griffin is the best shooter in the draft. But his multiple swing skills—defensive awareness, playmaking for others, attacking closeouts—will significantly limit him at the next level, at least early in his career. All concerning issues given Sacramento’s own weaknesses and the immediate goals of the franchise.

We talk about Shaedon Sharpe, Jaden Ivey, and Keegan Murray as different pinpoints on the risk vs. reward discussion; AJ Griffin is very much an upside play without any sureties beyond his deep shot, shot making ability, and defensive motor. Like Sharpe, it would take major confidence for the Kings to select a project player given the playoff push and the team’s history with developmental gambles. But if the Kings are truly considering Sharpe, they absolutely should consider Griffin; he’s as big a risk as Shaedon but also comes with a guaranteed elite skill that the Kings need.

Griffin deserves real consideration early in the lottery for any team that needs a big time deep shooter and shot maker. There’s no assurances beyond his shooting wizardry, and I expect #4 is likely too high for McNair (and many Kings fans alike). But I believe that with patience, a coach with a defense-first approach, and a strong developmental system, AJ Griffin can be one of the top players in this draft class.

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LesJepsen3pointer
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May 26, 2022 10:16 am

Great breakdown! Those highlights certainly give one confidence in his ability to hit shots. What worries me is just HOW BAD he is on defense. Sam Vecenie calls him the SINGLE WORST DEFENDER in the draft.

Shmutty Fields 2.0?????

Last edited 1 year ago by LesJepsen3pointer
LesJepsen3pointer
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May 26, 2022 10:28 am
Reply to  Bryant

That’s fair. I hear great shooter + awful defense, and I get nervous!

He’s young, his IQ could be fine (it’s tough to tell in college). Plus, it’s possible his athleticism returns with time and no additional injuries.

Greg
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May 26, 2022 12:35 pm

Bryant and I had the same discussion in Slack the other day. I laughed that Bryant is hyping up the next Buddy Hield.

MidtownMike
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May 26, 2022 1:11 pm
Reply to  Greg

Kings could do a lot worse than a 6’6 strong 18 y/o buddy with a trade back around 7ish

andy_sims
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May 26, 2022 1:26 pm
Reply to  MidtownMike

Say this for the old man, he sure as hell as been durable.

RobHessing
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May 26, 2022 2:13 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

Him and Barnes both. A very understated and underrated part of their games.

Kingsguru21
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May 26, 2022 3:56 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

I suspect that was partly why Carlisle could tolerate taking back Buddy Hield. His contract is only for 2 more years, and if you have guys missing games, you can at least pencil Buddy in the lineup.

Last edited 1 year ago by Kingsguru21
Hamlet1989
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May 27, 2022 8:21 am
Reply to  Kingsguru21

Yes. Buddy does make a strong, if pricey, addition to an NBA bench.

Hamlet1989
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May 26, 2022 2:37 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

The Buddy Hield comps this year make as much sense as they did last year, to Moses Moody. 6’7″ tall with 7″ wingspan equals a much higher defensive ceiling than BH.

ArcoThunder
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May 26, 2022 2:50 pm
Reply to  MidtownMike

They could also do a lot better around 7 ish

Hamlet1989
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May 27, 2022 6:53 am
Reply to  Greg

Didn’t you hype-up the last Buddy Hield?

Hamlet1989
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May 27, 2022 9:18 am
Reply to  Hamlet1989

To be clear, I am still a Buddy Hield fan. Of course, I’m more a fan of Buddy the person, and player, and less a fan of his contract. Maybe I also feel a misplaced animosity toward him because they chose him over Bogie.
I think the original trade for Buddy was an overall success, but they let him become a FA and eventually over-paid him. When Vlade, Vivek, and company, committed to BH, they used all the salary space available for the 2 spot, which basically precluded Monte, Vivek, and company from making a serious effort to re-sign Bogie.
We know from video evidence it was basically Vivek’s idea to acquire Hield in the first place, and he is of course the common denominator in all this. Given these things, it’s hard not to assume Vivek and his fondness for Buddy’s game was the driving force behind the Kings overpaying for Buddy. This ultimately led to Bogie being shipped out (which was another shitshow,) They didn’t want pay another shooting guard and attept to re-balance the roster later, because of the win now mandate, and they thought they were getting DDV.
More examples of mistakes the Kings refused to acknowledge, let alone account for, that they are still paying the price for. The rest of the story gets really long, but it involved dumping MBIII to get DDV, giving up a salary controlled asset, (Haliburton), for a non-controlled asset, (Sabonis) and Buddy playing for bonuses for a couple seasons. It wasn’t all bad, and it wasn’t all Buddy’s fault, but overall, after the contract, it wasn’t very good.

Hamlet1989
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May 27, 2022 8:08 am
Reply to  Bryant

If you expect #4 is likely too high for McNair (and many Kings fans alike,) then why did you pick his profile #1 to present as an option?

SPTSJUNKIE
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May 27, 2022 12:14 pm
Reply to  Bryant

Great write up – fantastic having all of the video links. Not only is the content great, but must have taken a lot of time. This really is the top tier writing I come here for.

Adding one other dimension to your point here, as you discussed a bit in the post, Griffin has had multiple injuries and put on a ton of muscle. Part of his bad defense is awareness and will take some learning, which is reasonable, especially consider his lost seasons, youth, and that he’s at least a decently high awareness offensive player – so basketball processing speed doesn’t seem to be an issue.

The real question is can he either a) recover athleticism / speed two years removed from injury and/or b) drop some of the new weight and gain some speed / dexterity in the process. If so, some of the issues he has changing directions or guarding the perimeter might be greatly diminished.

Ralph_Furleys_Tailor
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May 26, 2022 1:11 pm

Todays random draft facts.

in the 2000 NBA Draft with the 16th pick the Kings drafted Hedo Turkoglu and he lead his class with a career 63.3 win share…which proves Geoff Petrie could really spot value. Even better, in the second round with the 45th pick the Kings drafted Jabari Smith…which, of course, will help them land his son on a hometown discount deal in 5 years (assuming he is better than Jabari Parker)

rockbottom
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May 27, 2022 6:57 am

So T Robinson, at 5 and Jimmer at 10 get a pass?

ArcoThunder
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May 26, 2022 2:50 pm

Do not want

Sochan way better

RobHessing
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May 26, 2022 10:51 am

Fantastic write-up. Griffin is outside of my top seven, in a group with Davis, Mathurin, Eason and Sochan.

andy_sims
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May 26, 2022 10:55 am

An elite shooter with very little ability to play defense? Hell, at least Buddy Hield was good for a few assists each game.

I hope the kid has a great career, but he’s not going to be Desmond Bane or Tyrese Haliburton. And there is still his injury history, which has been followed by adding muscle weight to his frame. Makes me jumpy.

Hell of a write-up, as always, but let me ask: Does anyone else have trouble getting the streamable.com links to work? I’m using Firefox, but don’t have problems with other streaming sources. I can right-click and open the frame in a new window, but as I’ve said, I’m a very busy man.

Hamlet1989
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May 26, 2022 2:29 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

Desmond Bane or Tyrese Haliburton? Try Jimmy Butler, or Kahwi Leonard.

BestHyperboleEver
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May 26, 2022 6:10 pm
Reply to  Hamlet1989

I’m really having a hard time seeing the relation to any of the 4 guys mentioned.

rockbottom
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May 27, 2022 7:00 am

They were all passed on for varied flaws . Bane 27, Butler30, Hali 12. Kawhi 15. Clearly, draft mocks missed as they do every year .

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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May 26, 2022 11:39 am

Sorry, but I don’t want the Kings drafting anyone who is a question mark on defense.

ArcoThunder
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May 26, 2022 2:53 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Let alone the worst defender in the draft. Hard pass.

BestHyperboleEver
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May 26, 2022 6:07 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

I simply wouldn’t draft any non-elite prospect with leg injuries they haven’t shown any hint of bouncing back from this high. Maybe you take him in the second half of the 1st in hopes that his athleticism suddenly returns and his injuries are behind him, so you get a lower risk lottery ticket. For example, despite the outcome, taking Giles at 20 after already pocketing 2 1st round selections was a good risk, IMO. I’d see Griffin close to the same way.

Last edited 1 year ago by BestHyperboleEver
Hamlet1989
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May 27, 2022 5:41 am

Giles had missed almost three years to surgeries in both knees and played less than a hand full of games at Duke. Griffin started 39 games!

Hamlet1989
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May 27, 2022 6:55 am
Reply to  Hamlet1989

NO SURGERIES!

OG_Aggie
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May 26, 2022 11:40 am

Definitely a trade down candidate, but not at #4 is what I get from this. I agree

Last edited 1 year ago by Rob Rodgers
Hamlet1989
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May 26, 2022 11:41 am

LOVE THIS GUY!!!!!!

eddie41
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May 26, 2022 12:04 pm

Who’s better: AJ Griffin or Jordan Nwora?

RobHessing
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May 26, 2022 12:52 pm
Reply to  eddie41

Nwora is 23 and has two years of NBA experience under his belt, so I don’t think that we’re comparing apples to apples here. But if both of these guys were available in this year’s NBA draft, my guess is that the not-yet 19 year old Griffin would come off the board long before Nwora.

eddie41
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May 26, 2022 1:05 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

Motion to strike as nonresponsive

RobHessing
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May 26, 2022 1:15 pm
Reply to  eddie41

Put another way, Griffin is four years younger than the youngest player on the current Kings roster (Queta). He’s five years younger than last year’s rookie pick (Mitchell).

Not campaigning for Griffin here – I have him somewhere between 7-12 on my list. But Jalen Duren is the only top 30 prospect younger than Griffin (which is crazy when you look at Duren’s physique). You’re not drafting AJ Griffin (or any of these rookies) for who they are today.

If Griffin and Nwora are both UFAs today, I’m taking Griffin. But I’d rather spend the #4 pick on someone else. I don’t care much about Nwora one way or the other.

Hamlet1989
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May 26, 2022 2:26 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

Yeah! Your right, except I am campaigning for him here. I have him between 4-6.

eddie41
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May 26, 2022 5:06 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

I get it. It’s just a question. I haven’t looked too much into Griffin. Great shooter, but I share some of the concerns noted in scouting reports, and several times while watching video footage, I thought his body mechanics (legs specifically) were abnormal, which not only would place him at a disadvantage from a mobility standpoint but also potentially have something to do with his injury history. Big risk for a top 10 pick.

as for Nwora, don’t knock the idea yet. I think I saw his name on the roster for the Nigeria national team, coached by you know who. If I recall correctly, he was an elite scorer at Louisville with a high 3-point shooting percentages. Also 6’7”. Only question mark was … wait for it … defense.

Kingsguru21
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May 26, 2022 2:03 pm

Thanks for these write ups, Bryant. I’m not super fond of AJ Griffin, but Id be thrilled to be wrong if the Kings end up with him.

MaybeNextYear
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May 26, 2022 2:14 pm

Here’s a great example of the value of moving up to pick number four. Griffin is right in the thick of names you’d be looking at with picks 7/8. Now that we are picking at four, he’s just too much of a reach. There are better options.

rc50cal
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May 26, 2022 4:03 pm

Our long nightmare is over. Our Buddy Hield replacement is here!

i don’t mean to suggest that he has the same body or has the same ceiling, but he would help with our shooting deficiency.

I’d really hate the pick at 4! At 8-9, it’d be a different story.

eddie41
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May 26, 2022 7:42 pm

Hey, you guys remember David Bluthenthal? signed with the Kings briefly in 2004? Well, apparently, he went on to be an outstanding shooter in the EuroLeague for a decade.

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