Is there more a fitting destiny for the 2023-24 Kings than this? The Kings finished the regular season in 9th, a seed that in most of NBA history would mean the season was over. But now with the Play-In tournament, the Kings still have a shot. It’s like Overtime on the entire season. But to move on, the Kings will have to do something they weren’t able to do last year: knock off Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors. This is Sacramento’s shot at redemption.
Let’s talk Kings basketball!
When: Tuesday, April 16th, 7:00 PM PT
Where: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
TV: TNT, truTV
Radio: Sactown Sports 1140
Three Things
Same Same, But Different
No two teams in the NBA have played each other more in the last year than the Kings and Warriors. After facing each other in a seven-game series last year, the Kings and Warriors split the season series this year with three of the games being decided by just one point. However the Kings and Warriors haven’t played each other in quite a while and both teams look fairly different. The Kings are obviously without both Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter, and new starter Keon Ellis has only seen 5 minutes of action against the Warriors all season. Whereas last year the Kings were all offense and no defense, as of late it’s been the opposite. The Kings ended up finishing 14th in defense, ranking as one of the top defensive teams since March 1st.
The Warriors meanwhile have been on a bit of a roll since the last time the Kings played. Back then they were just 19-23. The Warriors would go on to be 25-12 since then, a pace that would have landed them the 4th seed if they were able to keep it up for a season. They finished the season winning 10 of their last 12 games to put them in the position they are in now. Rookie Trayce Jackson-Davis now starts at Center and Kings nemesis Kevon Looney barely plays. Chris Paul, Jonathan Kuminga and rookie Brandin Podziemski run the bench unit. Steph is still Steph but Klay Thompson has regained a bit of his mojo. This is a dangerous team, better than their record suggests, and they have championship experience on their side, but are also using more youth than ever. But this isn’t like Game 7 last year where both teams had multiple games to figure each other out. This is one game, win or go home.
All Eyes on Domantas Sabonis
The Warriors series last year was not kind to Domantas Sabonis. Despite putting up 16.4 points and 11 rebounds a game over the series, it was clear the Warriors frustrated him in ways other teams didn’t. Golden State opted to sag off him and dare him to shoot jumpers, and they aggressively looked to take away the dribble-handoff game that was so crucial to Sacramento’s league-leading offense. Kevon Looney was also a wall in the paint, not biting on Sabonis’ many fakes and also dominating the glass in a way we almost never see against Sabonis. Sabonis is more key to the Kings offense than ever, especially with Malik Monk out, and the Kings can’t afford for him to struggle tonight. If the Warriors dare him to shoot, shoot. I liked the way he was confident in his midrange jumper against Portland in the final season, almost as if it was a test for this game. This is a chance for redemption not just for the Kings but for Sabonis as well, and if he can find a way to punish the Warriors for the way they play him, the Kings will have a good chance at pulling this off.
X-Factor
In a game like this, we know the stars are probably going to shine. Steph Curry is amazing and De’Aaron Fox is going to lead the way for the Kings in all likelihood. But in a win or go home like this, the winner is likely going to have a player who stepped up and played above and beyond. The Warriors probably have more options for who that player could be right now than the Kings. Could it be one of the rookies, Podziemski or Davis? Will Jonathan Kuminga come off the bench to drop 20+? Is Kevon Looney going to rise from the grave like the Ghost of Christmas past to haunt the Kings once more? Hopefully not.
For the Kings, the best bet is on Keegan Murray. Murray has stepped up his aggression of late and last year was more of just a spot up shooter against the Warriors. He struggled for the first part of the series before finding his rhythm. But Murray might also be tasked with guarding Steph, a tiring role in itself but one he has performed admirably in their matchups so far this season. Keon Ellis is someone the Warriors haven’t seen, and while he’s a defensive minded player, he’s shown he can reliably knock down his long range jumpers, leading the Kings in 3P% this season at 41.7%. This will be the biggest game yet of Keon’s young NBA career. Davion Mitchell’s another candidate to be the X-Factor. Last season the Warriors dared him to shoot the triple and he failed to punish them, making just 25.9% of his threes in the series. He spent all offseason working on his shot and while he started off the season poorly, he’s been lights out since the All-Star break, making 41.6% of his threes in the last 28 games. Then there’s Trey Lyles who has been Sacramento’s best big off the bench all season, or who knows, maybe Sasha Vezenkov finally has his hero Sacramento moment. Whatever the case, one (if not multiple) of these players needs to step up tonight if the Kings hope to move on.
Prediction
Would it be a Kings-Warriors game without some drama? Much like this game is overtime on the season, this game also heads into overtime. In the end, with the Kings down two points, the ball finds Harrison Barnes in the same spot as Game 4 last year. This time though, he knocks it down as the buzzer sounds and the Kings playoff hopes stay alive.
Kings 126, Warriors 125
Fan Predictions
Tonight we will host Golden State;
Got to win to compete for slot eight.
The stakes are so high;
This game’s do or die.
Our time for revenge will not wait!
+1 We need a particular set of skills!
Unfortuanetely, I see Curry saying:
“Skills I have acquired over a very long career. Skills that make me a nightmare for teams like you.”
Duds are favored by 2, I’m surprised it’s not more, figured it’d be around 4 or 5. Guess Vegas expects a close one although most King’s fans seem pessimestic about this game.
I’m really hoping Domas shows out. After last year’s playoff debacle against the Duds, including the stomp, I really want to see Domas take it at DrayMoron and the Dud’s bigs.
We have no bench. Fox and Domas need to have the game of their lives.
It would be something to beat the Duds and Lakers to make the playoffs!
I’m flying out to Atlanta tomorrow for a trip at like 6:00am, but I know I probably won’t be able to fall asleep early because I’ll be watching the game, and whatever adrenaline I will have following the game.
I think the biggest matchup isn’t mentioned here; Mike Brown vs Steve Kerr.
I hope that Brown can pull some sort of rabbit out of his sleeve, because when it comes to in-game adjustments and ATO’s, he hasn’t looked good all year.
He will also be key in ensuring that Domasd has a good game. Domas can’t do it himself; he needs to be put in a position to succeed and Brown has to gameplan to mask his weaknesses.
It may come down to defense; if Keon and Davion can slop Steph down enough, it can be the difference.
And we all know that Domas won’t get the calls down low, so the uphill battle is even steeper.
Brown has to throw something different at Steph tonight. They just seem to let him run around freely and get where he wants. Can’t happen tonight.
It was pretty dumb of Mike Brown to let Curry run around freely and get whatever he wanted in last year’s series. He made Curry look like a Hall of Fame-level player.
I sure hope he reads this and tries another strategy.
The SFGate posting a little anti-Kings nooze: Warriors fans have new, embarrassing Kings gimmick to laugh at (sfgate.com)
I would encourage everyone to avoid clicking that link. No need to reward that drivel with your time, energy, or clicks.
Their TM site is preselling Playoff game tickets. How lovely, arrogant MFs
Brown talked a lot about wanting to see how this team responds to adversity….
Down two key players, win or go home game against an in-state rival…no better time like the present, fellas.
I don’t have a strategy, I don’t have a clue how to win this game, but I’m excited to watch it either way.
Great preview. There are many things different about this matchup compared to the playoffs last year. Looney was the Sabonis stopper, but now hardly plays, Curry cooked Fox and TD, but will now get a heavy dose of Davion and Keon (unless Brown has a brain fart and puts Duarte in), and Kuminga is a real threat and will keep Keegan occupied. The only things consistent will be Green pulling some kind of bullshit. If I were a betting man, I’d put money on him getting a tech.
I want to see either Davion or Keon on Curry the entire game, Fox get a shit ton of paint touches, Barnes and Keegan with lots of scoring opportunities, and a heavy dose of Sabonis on Jackson-Davis.
I’m a glass half empty kind of guy on this one, but damn it would be nice to send the Dubs packing.
It would be sweet to send both the Dubs and Fakers home.
Keegan has done a decent job on Steph also because of his length to contest.
but yeah, good point about constantly having a defender on the court to guard Steph. That was something lacking last year.
I haven’t posted at all this season, but it hasn’t been because I haven’t been watching. My wife and I welcomed twin boys to the world back in June.
We live in Orlando. Anyhow, I just want everyone to know that me, my wife, and my near 10-month year old twin boys are currently decked out in Kings gear and we will be willing and rooting for an upset and an end to the Warriors’ “dyansty” tonight.
Let’s go Kings! We can do this!!!
Congrats, PoundTheRock!
Congrats on the twins! Did you name them Keegan and Kris?
Woohoo!
Congrats, PoundtheRock!
Mazel Tov, PTR!
Congrats, and change your name to PoundsEverything.
Congratulations!
I can see the Kings losing tonight by 30 and being done for the season, or see them win 2 games and face OKC in round, and beat OKC. It’s been that kind of a season for this team…and I won’t be surprised by either outcome
I have not been paying attention – how did this work out for us?
20-5-5 baby!
A healthy Evan’s and Boogie, and a coach, the sky’s the limit baby.
Hey, don’t forget, Tyreke came back for a second go-around in 2017!
I can’t remember: What was the consensus around here about the pick beforehand?
I do recall posting something that Bob Knight had said about Curry’s ability to see and judge the floor in real time, and that it was about as good as anyone he had ever seen. The shooting was there, but there were a lot of concerns about the ankle. Curry did miss a ton of games in his first few years, and I don’t think many pegged him as a superstar before he became one.
Evans made a ton of sense, won ROY, and had the potential to be pretty damned good. Injuries and etcetera made that impossible, but at the time of the draft, Evans was the right pick.
Yeah, I was high on the pick.I was more torn between Tyreke and Rubio and couldn’t care less about Curry at the time.
Jonny Flynn was ahead of Curry and IIRC Geoff Petrie implied he really liked Jrue Holiday (who was the youngest player in the draft at that time, I believe)
This. The consensus was overwhelmingly Rubio – the entire conversation really revolved around Griffin or Rubio until the Kings got ping pong balled down to four. When the first three picks went Griffin, Thabeet, Harden, it was time for Rubio madness, right up to the moment that it wasn’t. Curry was not much of a thought around here, and by the time the season ended, everyone was pretty happy with the selection of Evans (though no one could understand why Kevin Martin had to go – turned out it was to pay the electricity bills, I think).
Kevin Martin was a class ambassador for Sacramento – they didn’t seem to handle Tyreke’s rookie year well (it was rotten Peaches) and IMO, treated him poorly.
El Pistola was all the talk – remember the “his Mom cut his steak for him” story?
Minny traded down and David Kahn picked two PGs (Flynn and Rubio) in a row?
Were there every more PGs in a draft than that one?
Evans, Rubio, Flynn, Curry, Brandon Jennings, Jeff Teague, (who scored 50 in the first month or two), Ty Lawson, Darren Collison – and Nando de Colo, Patty Mills, Nick Calathes, Pat Bev, Eric Maynor… amazing.
That’s also the draft of Omri Casspi and Jon Brockman.
Nice memories.
And so long ago.
Kmart would be so perfect for this team
I never understood that trade either. Wasn’t KMart hurt that season? A wrist or something? I just recall the talk being about opening up the backcourt for Tyreke.
I remember the prize in that trade was Carl Landry, but the Kings already had Shock and Hawes, so the argument ot move KMart seems silly.
Yep. The organization undertow was that Evans and Martin didn’t mesh in the backcourt, but they played very few games together. And that was the year that Peaches intimated that Martin was soft, when in fact he finished the game (and played rather well) in which he broke his hand. Martin and Evans got in five games before Martin broke his hand, and only seventeen after he returned.
Even more bizarre was that Landry was traded a year later for Marcus Thornton, who eventually was traded for Jason Terry (who never reported) and Reggie Evans That means an asset in Martin was turned into Evans in 4 years.
KMart went on to have another very productive 5 years and was averaging 19 PPG in Minny playing with Adelman when Thornton was flipped for Evans.
What nonsense, and that was only the relative beginning of the Kangz years.
Man, the Bayou Bomber made some big shots while he was here, and could really light it up. He was fun to have around.
But Kevin Martin was much better. He was as good a shooting guard as there was for a nice stretch.
You HAVE to have an open backcourt.
HAVE to.
Think how awful it would be if there were De’Aaron Fox and Luka Donçic?
I /shudder the thought.
most on STR said Curry was soft (in caps) and because of recent experiences with Kmart and Francisco Garcia, vehemently said no way.
It’s a long time ago, but wasn’t there something about Rubio having a pretty lackluster tryout, or maybe that he wouldn’t visit at all? I’m pretty confident that Evans had great workouts and was a man among boys on the floor.
I wish we could access the comments from STR so I could nail down just exactly how stupid I am.
Well, this is it, isn’t it?
What feels strongest to me, is something Greg mentions above;
Can the Kings rise to the occasion?
Given what we’ve seen in the last two weeks – losses to Dallas x2, Boston in the last second, OKC in the last minute, Phoenix in the last 30 seconds – it would be a welcome surprise.
Then there is playoff basketball – tough D and an inside game, a strong bench tend to be the most consistent of winning formulas. Any team can be hot for a game, and we aren’t talking about a series – but the odds are against a hot shooting Kings team outshooting the Warriors.
I have tickets to this one, in my little group of season ticket holders, I got lucky. I’ll show up as soon as I can get there – but boy, this team has been all about the second half. If the score is close at halftime, or if they are up by 20 – it doesn’t seem to matter. They won’t win this one unless they play a full 48 minutes. Every possession. I just don’t know if they are capable.
As for the Draymond circus – he’s going to come in and pull some stunt from the get go on Domas. It’s going to be up to the officials to handle him. I was at the Game 2 at G1C last season – The Stomp – and he was disgraceful. Not just the incident, but his behavior during the review – goading the fans, acting the jerk. I am not predicting turmoil – but again, it wouldn’t be a surprise. As for the rest of the squad – Klay’s been looking quite good from the 3 point line (and just won the FT % title over Steph). Look for free throws to also be a factor tonight – not just the calls or non-calls, but the makes and misses.
Let’s hope the beam is lit tonight.
Kindly disregard.
Praying for Domas to have a monster game to ease the pain that is Tyrese making the USA Olympic team
You have something against Lithuania?
No, and I can’t say that my feelings are rational
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