Kings vs. Thunder Preview & Predictions: End of the road

It’s the last road game of the regular season for the Sacramento Kings, and it’s going to be a tough task against a very good Oklahoma City Thunder team.  The Kings have the series lead for the season at 2-1 so far, but the Kings are shorthanded and the Thunder are at home.  Both team still have a lot to play for, but the Kings need this one more.

Let’s talk Kings basketball!

When: Tuesday, April 9th, 5:00 PM PT
Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
TV: NBC Sports California
Radio: Sactown Sports 1140

Last Time

The Thunder shellacked the Kings in their other visit to Oklahoma City this year, 127-113.  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dropped 38 points on 57.7% from the field and Jalen Williams added 32 of his own on 65% from the field.  The Thunder as a team shot 54.1% from the field and 48.1% from three.  Malik Monk led the way for the Kings with 26 points and Domantas Sabonis added a triple-double with 21 points, 14 assists and 11 rebounds in the losing effort.

Three in the Key

Keep Shai off the line

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is having an MVP quality season, averaging 30.3 points, 6.3 assists, 5.5 rebounds and 2.1 steals a game.  Only Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have averaged more points in a season for the Thunder.  SGA is an incredibly talented scorer, particularly in the midrange, but it’s his ability to get to the line frequently that leads to a lot of efficient nights.  SGA averages 8.6 free throw attempts a game and makes 87.2% of them.  The only player in the league who has shot more free throws than SGA this season has been Giannis Antetokounmpo (who has shot a whopping 170 more while making 19 less).  The Kings can’t afford to let SGA live at the line.  He’s likely going to get his points regardless, but at least make him earn it.  Keon Ellis has given him trouble at times but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Kings try both Ellis and Keegan Murray, especially if Jalen Williams misses the game (he’s currently listed as questionable).

Dominate the Glass

The Thunder are a good defensive team, ranking 8th in the NBA in defensive rating.  However, they’re one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, ranking 29th in defensive rebounding rate and opponent second chance points.  Chet Holmgren leads the team in rebounding at just 7.9 a game.  Domantas Sabonis in particular should be feasting on both ends of the floor and the Kings need to punish Oklahoma City for their overall lack of size.

Don’t let the supporting cast shine

The big names in Oklahoma City are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, but the Thunder supporting cast is pretty dangerous in their own right.  We’ve seen Lu Dort drop 30+ on the Kings before, and Josh Giddey is a triple-double threat.  Isaiah Joe and Cason Wallace are sharpshooters from distance and the Thunder have a whopping 10 players shooting over 39% from distance.  SGA and Chet are probably going to get their numbers, but if some of these other guys get going for the Thunder it could be a long night for Sacramento.

Prediction

It’s a duel for the ages as for the second time this season SGA and Fox both drop 40+ points, but also for the second time this season, Fox comes out victorious.

Kings 124, Thunder 199

Standings Watch

Around the association today we have some other very important games that could affect Sacramento’s standings:

#5 Dallas takes on the Charlotte Hornets. A win for Dallas would all but guarantee them a playoff spot.

#7 New Orleans is on the road to take on the Portland Trail Blazers.  Let’s go Portland!

#4 L.A. Clippers are taking on #6 Phoenix Suns.  The Clippers can clinch a Top-5 seed with a win tonight while the Suns could fall into a tie for 7th with a loss and a Kings win.

#10 Golden State takes on #9 L.A. Lakers.  Given that the Lakers need to be a full game ahead of us in the standings to pass us up, we want the Warriors to win this one.  This is an important game for both of these teams and might decide homecourt advantage in the 9-10 win or go home play-in game.

Fan Predictions

Link to Leaderboard (Updated 2/21/24)