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Kings vs. Grizzlies Preview & Predictions: Loaded for Bear

Sacramento looks to answer a season long four game losing streak with a four game winning streak if they can come away with a win in Memphis tonight.
By | 23 Comments | Jan 29, 2024

Dec 31, 2023; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Sacramento Kings guard De'Aaron Fox (5) handles the ball as Memphis Grizzlies guard Marcus Smart (36) defends during the first half at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

It hasn’t always been pretty, but the Kings have responded pretty well so far to a season-long four game losing streak.  In fact, they’ll be looking to put together a four-game winning streak if they can take care of business tonight against an injury riddled Memphis Grizzlies team.

Let’s talk Kings basketball!

When: Monday, January 29th, 5:00 PM PT
Where: FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN
TV: NBC Sports California
Radio: Sactown Sports 1140

Last Time

The Kings posted their biggest win of the season on New Year’s Eve in Memphis, winning 123 to 92.  Domantas Sabonis had a 13 points, 21 rebound and 12 assist triple double and Malik Monk led the game in scoring with 27 points off the bench.

Three in the Key

Advantage Kings

The Kings have had some rare scheduling luck these past few games; including tonight, Sacramento’s last three games have all been against an opponent on the second night of a back to back.  Memphis was in Indiana last night where they lost 116-110.  To make matters worse for the Grizzlies, they possess an injury report that features four of the five players (Ja Morant, Steven Adams, Desmond Bane and Marcus Smart) the Grizzlies would normally call starters.  The Kings for their part are mostly healthy and playing some of their best basketball of the season of late.  This is a game the Kings cannot afford to let slip from their grasp, especially with four considerably tougher matchups coming up on this trip.  It would also help matters if the Kings could actually close a game out convincingly for once, something they were able to do the last time they played the Grizzlies. Let’s make it two for two.

A wounded Bear is still dangerous

Despite all of their injuries and the whole board stacked against them this season, the Grizzlies have actually been playing pretty well as of late.  In the month of January, Memphis has gone 8-6, with wins against some good teams during that stretch.  Now, the Grizzlies have lost some important pieces in that stretch, but even still, this is a team with nothing to lose and a bunch of guys who want to make the most of time they wouldn’t normally get.  It’s not a glitzy opponent but the Kings need to take them seriously.  Youngsters like Vince Williams Jr. and GG Jackson have been playing great as of late.  Jaren Jackson Jr. is still around and anchoring the middle while also typically leading the team in scoring.  Don’t give this team any confidence, especially in front of a home crowd that hasn’t seen many wins this year (Memphis is just 5-15 at home this season compared to 13-13 on the road).

Light it Up

The Grizzlies are not a good offensive team, ranking 2nd to last in the NBA in offensive rating.  When they win games, it’s not because of their offense, but rather their defense.  The Grizzlies allow just 104.7 points in games they’ve won, compared to 118.1 points in their losses.  In fact, the Grizzlies are 0-10 when allowing teams to score over 120 points, and just 1-19 when allowing teams to score over 116.  On the other hand, the Grizzlies are 8-1 when keeping teams at 102 points or fewer, and 12-3 when holding teams to 107 points or fewer. Memphis just doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with high scoring teams but they do have the ability to grind out wins if they get enough stops.  If the Kings can get their offense going like they have been lately (Sacramento has scored over 116 in 10 of their last 12 games), it will be hard for the Grizzlies to keep up.

Prediction

The Grizzlies play the Kings tougher than expected for much of the first half, even taking a small lead going into halftime, but the Kings come out of the gates in the second half and take firm control as Memphis finds no answer for De’Aaron Fox or Malik Monk and the Kings win by double digits.

Kings 119, Memphis 105

Fan Predictions

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Jman1949
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January 29, 2024 11:38 am

This seven game trip will continue
As we visit the Grizzlies’ venue.
We know that they’ve struggled;
Their lineups they’ve juggled
As their players treat muscle and sinew!

Jman1949
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January 29, 2024 11:40 am
Reply to  Jman1949

+1 Latest Grizzlies injury report:

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Klam
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Nostradumbass 18
Nostradumbass 19
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January 29, 2024 2:20 pm
Reply to  Jman1949

Jeeeeesus. They better NOT lose tonight.

Hobby916
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January 29, 2024 3:05 pm
Reply to  Klam

Ultimate trap game

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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Nostradumbass 14
January 29, 2024 2:44 pm
Reply to  Jman1949

How many are they going to have dressed? 8 is the minimum right? They may only have 6-7 who actually see the court.

UpgradedToQuestionable
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January 29, 2024 2:47 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Not only have we seen the Kings do the Kangz, but I watched a Sixer team that sat Embiid, Maxey and Tobias Harris almost post a W on the world Champs in Denver (and with Jokic and Murray and Aaron Gordon).

These professional basketball players in the NBA are pretty good!

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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Nostradumbass 14
January 29, 2024 2:48 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Looks like they are adding a dude for tonight who’s not even on their team. How does that work?

UpgradedToQuestionable
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January 29, 2024 2:49 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Hurt in for certain!

Jman1949
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January 29, 2024 3:09 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Were the Grizzlies being intentionally ironic by promoting a player named “Hurt” ?

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January 29, 2024 3:14 pm
Reply to  Jman1949

not so Smart

Russ916
January 29, 2024 5:11 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Apparently they signed him to a 10-day hardship deal

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January 29, 2024 1:21 pm

With the emergence of starters Kevin Huerter and Harrison Barnes, the trade talk has died down considerably.

At one point long ago (last week) I was very in favor of a trade for Marcus Smart as I believe he would add a significant upgrade to Kings defense which is not cutting it. He provides enough on offense to offset Huerter and eliminates Davion.

I strongly doubt it,, but I had higher hopes that it would, and should, even if it couldn’t.

I will probably look and comment on every roster the Kings face from now until next Thursday.

andy_sims
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January 29, 2024 1:39 pm

Recent play has certainly upped the value for both, but I expect that movement is a decent possibility should a defensive wing or shotblocking big be available for a reasonable price.

And if they both stay, as you said, it’s hardly the end of the world. If the Kings could figure out how to maintain big leads, most other problems solve themselves.

ForKingsandCountry
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January 29, 2024 2:56 pm

The trade talk certainly shouldn’t have died down. The Kings need a major defensive upgrade to compete. It was as true last week as it is this week as it was in the offseason. The Knicks were in a very similar position to the Kings before they made the OG trade and that has really improved their team. The Kings still need to do something similar to be anything other than a team that loses in the first round of the playoffs.

murraytant
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January 29, 2024 4:50 pm

OG has really helped the NYK. More than I would have expected.

NorCalKingsFan
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January 29, 2024 5:15 pm
Reply to  murraytant

The Knicks were in a very similar position to the Kings IMO, then they moved a shooter for a defensive specialist (who importantly, is not a black-hole on offense) and it completely rebalanced their team. Not to be overlooked, Hartenstein took over at C when M. Robinson went down in mid-Dec and NYK has gone 12-6 with Hartenstein starting at C (which timing-wise, coincides with the OG trade).

That is the kind of result the Kings are looking for, the only problem I see is that other than OG, they aren’t really any players available who can do the same for the Kings (Caruso probably could but I don’t think he is really attainable).

murraytant
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January 29, 2024 4:49 pm

There have been at least 4 Kings games this year when team played without a star or stars and Kings pooped the bed- Philly, Pacers, and ??
Be careful.
I have been yammering about the Kings and their 3-4 man keep away. Now HB and Huerter have said give me the ball too and the Kings look more like last year.
it’s all fine to have Fox, DS and Monk carry a big part of the load but not the entire load. The others just sit around.
Spread the rock, the love, the honey.
I would double JJJ tonight. and leave Smart open- oh, yes Smart is smartin and on the bench.

NorCalKingsFan
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January 29, 2024 4:50 pm

In terms of trading Barnes:

I am pretty sure Monte was/is only looking to include Barnes in a deal if it was to make a “big” move that definitely increases the Kings talent level.

Barnes is a crucial part of this team’s cohesiveness/closeness and as James Ham put it, “has been Fox’s veteran mentor since mid-way through Fox’s 1st year in the league”. Barnes is a jack-all-of-trades vet who plays nearly every game, hits 40% from 3pt, and doesn’t complain about his role, not too mention that he is an excellent human being off the court. I don’t think Monte moves Barnes unless it is for a OG or Siakam-like talent.

Huerter on the other hand, I believe could be traded for a defensive specialist to start next to Fox BUT I think moving Huerter is a very difficult decision to make for the Kings FO because they don’t want to see Monk get signed away in the off-season and the Kings be left with no Monk and no Huerter to be that shooter running DHOs with Domas (when its not Keegan). It would help the Kings prospects of re-signing Monk in the offseason if the Kings free up some salary in the process if they decide to re-balance by moving Huerter.

Since a consolidation package of Barnes & Huerter to pick up an even better player is off the table for the most part. I think Monte would ONLY move Huerter for a player like Caruso (and to a lesser extent Thybulle) as that type of upgrade/rebalance of talents can lead to more wins by removing the volatility that occurs when solely relying on your offense. I think Monte is searching for someone shooting threes at at 37%+ clip this year (Huerter 37%, Caruso 42%, Thybulle 37%) but also has the defensive and connective play that should give the Kings a higher overall ceiling than what Huerter offers as a shooter (to be fair, he can also rebound pretty effectively for a wing). On top of that, Caruso makes around $10MM/yr, Thybulle $11MM/yr and Huerter is around $17MM, freeing up around $6MM or so per year that could be added to Monk’s offer. There is a lot that needs to be right for any trade to make sense and that doesn’t even consider whether or not the other team is even interested in what the Kings have to offer (whether that be players or draft comp).

Unless Monte is certain that he is upgrading the team to operate in more balanced nature (not so reliant on the offense), I don’t think he makes any moves unless they can be achieved without including any of Barnes, Huerter, or FRPs. For all these reasons, I don’t think the Kings make any moves trade deadline.

Just my $0.02

Sacto_J
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January 29, 2024 4:09 pm

Memphis is one of those teams we should always be wary of. They have a decent historical track record against us and are usually a tough team for us no matter who, what, or where.
No quarter for these wounded Grizzlies tonight, Let’s put them down early and by a lot.
Go Kings!!!

andy_sims
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January 29, 2024 4:13 pm
Reply to  Sacto_J

Let’s run them to death, or at the very least, into a deep, vegetative state.

I can’t get over how well that phrase describes Arizona.

murraytant
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January 29, 2024 4:52 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

Arizona = deep vegetative state?
There are some nice hikes there outside of Tucson and near Phoenix.
Not a lot of vegetation but nice and scenic.

andy_sims
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January 30, 2024 9:13 am
Reply to  murraytant

That was a reference to the populace.

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