If the Jonathan Kuminga rumors and drama felt like they took forever last season, this season’s Jalen Duren saga is trying to match it. With just a week left until Duren’s qualifying offer deadline (October 1), Duren and the Pistons have yet to agree on a new contract. The Pistons have reportedly increased their offer to a five-year, $200 million fully guaranteed deal with no player or team options, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania. While it is less than the supermax that Duren was reportedly seeking heading into the summer, it’s still slightly more than he would get if he took the qualifying offer this year and then signed a maximum contract with another team (like the Kings) next summer. It also carries a lot less risk, given that he’s guaranteed to get that money now, whereas anything can happen in a year that could derail his value. Just look at what’s been going on with Jonathan Kuminga this summer.
The Kings are widely believed to be the team most interested in Duren, but should he become an unrestricted free agent next summer, they’d hardly be the only team interested. The Kings have historically not been a premier free-agent destination, and landing Duren would undoubtedly be the biggest signing in Sacramento history. It’s much more likely that the team is being used as leverage in these contract negotiations and that the Pistons and Duren’s camp will come to some sort of agreement before training camp. Still, I don’t fault Scott Perry and this front office for trying to do what they can to entice Duren to come here; 23-year-olds who have already made All-NBA teams don’t become available often, and almost never to teams like the Kings.
While Duren’s qualifying offer deadline is October 1, the team and Duren can mutually agree to extend that deadline, but they’d have to do so by the October 1 date. The math and the money still seem to be on Detroit’s side, but perhaps Duren feels disrespected enough by their initial offers that he’s ready to make the bet of a lifetime. I just have my doubts that he’s really that willing to leave that much money on the table for the opportunity to join the Sacramento Kings. But hey, I’d be happy to be wrong.
If respect is a big issue for Duren (that’s a big IF), then becoming a member of the Kangz dynasty doesn’t seem like a logical step.
But if he’s dumb enough to go for the QO, he may be dumb enough to sign with the Kings.
Wonderful.
Maybe he just really hates living in Detroit and really wants to move to Sacramento.
These are the deals that took care of themselves before the apron was a thing. Teams would simply overpay to retain their 2nd level players and move on. That is no longer the case. And it seems that one of the byproducts is that a lot of these players (Tari Eason, Ausur Thompson, etc.) are settling for deals that are well short of the max and perhaps closer to market value. Kuminga rolled the dice and it has not worked out well for him. Duren is a much better and rarer talent than Kuminga, so maybe taking a hard stance will work out for him. But man, it sure would be hard for me to walk away from $200m.
Yeah, the NBA middle class players are starting to get squeezed. Going forward going to see a lot of 3 max and a bunch of under 20 mil and minimum deals for contending teams.
Us moving on from Fox and even Dallas moving Luka could also be fallout from the latest cba. “Make sure your max and supermax guys are really of that level.”
I would think the NBPA is going to address the aprons in their next CBA negotiations. the middle class really is getting squeezed out with the new rules. hitting RFA isn’t what it used to be for the players.
They’re getting 51%. I don’t think the aprons are the problem. The max contract % is the problem.
I’d think the NBPA would be smart to push to flatten the pyramid. The superstars don’t need to make 75 mil+ a year and good players have to settle for 10 to 20 mil. Be much better to have the max be like 30 million and each team could have 5 or 6 players at that rate and raise the league minimum to close to 10 mil. The superstars are going to get their endorsement deals as well. They don’t need to take 35% of the cap or whatever the % is.
I think this is the way. Good call.
I think it is good overall for players like Ausar to be taking less than the max automatically, or Chet taking a flat contract, no escalator as the cap rises. Still well paid but room for team/player to negotiate.
I like how Bunson took a team friendly deal, and it definitely helped out. I also wonder, however, if it is going to be a focus of future Pablo Torre Finds Out episodes.
Crazy to think that Duren is wanting more than what Brunson makes.
Yeah, I wonder
Yikes. I had not thought of that but at this point I suppose I wouldn’t be surprised as much as disappointed.
Agree with your point about the apron, but in this instance, I feel like the Pistons are overpaying (5/$200) as it is and JD inexplicably isn’t taking the offer. There has to be some behind the scenes stuff going on that we’re not privy to that’s causing him to not jump at taking this contract.
One thing that jumps out to me is the Pistons putting a weight clause in the increased offer.
It does show a lack of trust on the Pistons part, like he is going to pull an Ayton and just cruise on his second contract. Could be one example of many that we are not aware of.
Negotiations continue with no Durend in sight.
How much more of this must we enDuren?
When will the Jalen of Duren end?
It’s meant to be, Jalen Durian is the King of Fruits
I get the feeling that what Perry is doing with Duren is exactly what he was doing last season with Kuminga. He’s hoping for some kind of miracle and an overpay to get a guy to come to Sac. Maybe he’s being played or maybe he just has a thing for overvalued RFAs.
Either way, it sure feels like Perry puts all his eggs in one basket while letting other possible opportunities pass him by. I feel he’s got a bit of tunnel vision when it comes to players…or maybe it’s Vivek.
Once the Duren situation resolves, it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see the Kings begin to make some other (major?) moves. We are just in a holding pettern of hell right now.
Lastly, if Duren really does value himself as more than a $200M player, I have all kinds of questions about his mindset and it gives me serious concern about him potentially becoming a King. If he’s not taking $200M to return to a contender to play alongside an MVP caliber player that gets him a half dozen dunks a night, what is it going to take for him to come to Sac?
I think it’s slightly different in that he sees Duren as a fresh slate/’start’ to his era. Sabonis out, someone younger in on a future-facing timeline. Not saying its a good deal or would maximize our dollars, but I think the fresh start of it all (though it’s a fresh start that locks us in) justifies the eggs in one basket approach.
If it were a Duren for Sabonis swap, I could justify an overpay via S&T. That’s two years of what is already committed to Sabonis that now is swapped with Duren.
What I worry about is Duren taking the QO, entering UFA next summer, and Perry still making an overpay with the LaVine free cap space, all while Sabonis is still on the roster.
The Kings would then lose leverage in trading Sabonis as the other 29 GMs know Perry needs to move off of him. I can’t imagine the Kings would begin the 27-28 season with Sabonis and Duren on the roster eating up a combined nearly $100M and playing the same position.
I suppose a lot could happen between today and whenever, but I’d never put it past the Kangz to f@#k it up.
In the end, I agree that Perry likely see Duren as a fresh start with his imprint on the team. I could think plenty of worse young players to build around other than Acuff and Duren.
Huge red flag. And I’d want nothing to do with that 5/$200 contract, that could end up being a huge albatross and we’re still trying to get out of current bloated contracts on the payroll.
Devil’s advocate: He is very young and could still get better, but yeah, what is going on in his head and behind the scenes is what is in question here.
I don’t know who’s dumber in this scenario, the Pistons for offering JD 5/$200 or JD for turning it down.
23 years old and turns down $200,000,000.00? I’m guessing two years ago he might have had $20,000 in an account. This is why tickets are hundreds of dollars. No love for the owners, but come on. He could take the $9M QO then blow out his legs and be done. Take the money young man. Get that huge(r) contract when you’re 28 and have a championship ring.
What’s nuts is he is only 22. He could play the entire 5 years on this guaranteed deal, and if he is legit, sign a super max deal at age 27 for in the ballpark of $400M. Dude could have over half a billion dollars guaranteed to him before he turns 30, but he’s balking. Crazy times.
So much leverage, so little time.
Imagine thinking Duren’s team is sitting around hoping their one big contract is with a career killing franchise like this one.
OK guys. Let’s say Duren stays with the Pistons and somehow Sabonis gets traded say to the Hornets,Now we have Raynaud and Cardwell. With Lavine and Hunter gone next year Perry can do a lot. My question is are you happy with Raynaud and Cardwell at center? Next question would you trade Monk and Clifford for RJ Barrett?
I’d take Barret over Monk and Clifford.
Whats in it for Toronto? I doubt they see anything in Monk or Clifford. And Barret is a free agent unrestricted after this year so very good chance he walks or forces a sign and trade.
“landing Duren would undoubtedly be the biggest signing in Sacramento history.”
Are we so quick to forget the very recent biggest signing in Sacramento history: DeMar DeRozan?
George Hill and Dennis Schroder.
I say for this to get done, I believe the Kings give up Sabonis, Cardwell and a first round pick The more money Duren gets the pick moves further away.
ACuff, Duren and Murray have a decent chance of being a solid core- 2 of them actually play D.
The 45-60 million in cap space takes away some of the sting of giving up first rounder. They could acquire 1 very good or 2 very solid guys and have space left over.
They would still have hopeful potential in Raynaud, Sharp and Clifford.
Would one of those solid players be Jonathan Kuminga?
I can’t take another year of that! Also, if Duren is here you can’t have another guy taking up a lot of minutes who is a below average NBA 3 point shooter.
On some level aren’t Sabonis and Duren similar players, have some great (but not the same obviously) attributes that you want in a center but have holes in their game were you’d question paying them 40 Mill a year
if you trade Sabonis and get Duren is the team better, or have you swapped one problem for another and have no cap room. The Kings aren’t going to be players on the big time free agent market, so its drafting well and trades, so have some cap flexibility might be required
I get that Duren sees himself worthy of a big contract, I’m not so sure that I want to be the winner of this game of musical chairs what ends up the winner with him on the team and Kings are capped out with a roster with talent issues
Is the current collective bargaining agreement a mess yes, but I think with the rising values of ownership the owners have all kinds of money and really hold all the cards, they may really like this deal as it keeps costs down. I makes building and keeping great teams almost impossible but maybe most of the owners who just want to make money don’t care about that I’m not sure the Players association has the vision or strength to change it sadly
One thing that sets them apart is Duren is 8 years younger than Sabonis. Fits really well in Perry’s rebuild timeline.
IMO, Duren is like Dwight Howard but without the rim protection, which is sort of like how Sabonis is like Jokic but without the shooting.
For the life of me I can’t figure out how a physical specimen like Duren isn’t an elite rim protector. He looks like he’s chiseled out of marble and is 6’10” with a 7’5″ wingspan…but he can’t average a block per game?
Duren has 254 career blocks in 276 regular season games which is good for 0.9 blocks per game. For comparison Keegan Murray has 206 blocks in 256 regular season games which is good for 0.8 blocks per game. Duren has 0.8 steals per game compared to Keegan’s 0.9 steals per game. Now, blocks and steals are not a true indicator of a “good defender” but they are a factor. So when folks say Duren could be the “ying” defender to Acuff’s “yang” offense, I scratch my head a bit. Mark Williams has a better steal and block rate than Duren.
So is a rock hard center who can’t shoot or protect the rim at an elite level really worth $40M, or did he benefit from sharing the floor with an MVP caliber PG and all-defensive first team wing?
Bascially, should Duren land in Sac tomorrow, do the Kings get the all-star/all-nba player of last year or $40M version of non-shooting Wendall Carter Jr.
Looking at career block %, Duren is at 3.2. Murray is at 2.3, Sabonis 1.2. Embiid is 4.4, and you would hope that Duren was closer to Embiid than Murray.
As always, the question is, what is the alternative? You can opt to not spend money and wait for the next opportunity, but the entire time you do that the clock is ticking on Acuff. Duren/Acuff would be a huge roll of the dice, but it might be the only roll that you get during Acuff’s gestational timeline. I would have serious reservations about Duren, but those reservations are lessened by the reality of (lack of) alternatives.
And 1 – I have yet to see a second contract cripple a team’s payroll. That is, Fox’s second contract did not cripple the Kings, and Murray’s won’t either. The luxury tax 1st apron is this year is a little over $200m. In that regard, Murray is 12% of that number, which is highly manageable, whether or not it is moveable. The $40m per that Duren turned down is 25% of the number, which is healthier, but not a number that would get you Batman or even Robin. As the cap continues to climb, we have to remember that these salaries aren’t as impactful as they were just a couple of seasons ago. It was just a few years ago that the MLE was at $8-9m per, now it’s over $15m.
Long story short, the dollars don’t give me a ton of concern when it comes to Duren. It’s the “if,” as in, “If Duren and Acuff both hit…” That is a big, big “if.” But given the visible alternatives, it would at least be interesting to see it play out.
Agreed. It would be interesting, and perhaps Duren is a delicate mental/emotional type that would really benefit from being so visibly chased like this.
I think too, as you mention Keegan, that he might still be the most compelling part as he still has not had a season that he has been healthy and not had to sublimate himself to Fox, Monk, Lavine, DeMar, et al.
His rebounding and defense and versatility are already plusses, even big plusses. If he had a defined role in an offense made for him to be integral rather than just settling for leftovers, and the Acuff-Duren-Keegan dynamic seemingly obvious, I think it would not be such a big “if” for him to over perform that contract.
Have to disagree on Keegan. My observation is that he can’t dribble, create for others, create for himself or shoot off the bounce. Keegan is a spot shooter at best, and asking him to do any more is inevitably going to lead to low efficiency offense. If you want him to be good on offense, ask him to do less, not more.
To your point, he could be Shane Battier if the team would stop asking him to be Paul George.
Perfect comparison, and Shane Battier was pretty respected as a player, while never being a scorer.
Excellent points. I guess the thing for me is that Jalen doesn’t really excel at any one thing that convinces me he’s worth that deal. There are just three other guys who signed rookie extensions larger than what he is asking for: Paolo, Chet, and Jalen Williams. I have those 3 guys a solid tier to two above Jalen. They can create their own shot and score in bunches, create for others, and/or defend at an elite level. IMO, Jalen does none of those three things.
Jalen can score at the rim, catch lobs, rebound at a decent rate, and….yeah, that’s about it. Put it this way, I’d rather have Walker Kessler (drafted the same year) on his deal than Duren. At least Kessler can defend the paint at an elite level. Myles Turner also comes to mind. Not only can he defend, but he can hit an outside shot. He’s also making Keegan Murray money.
As you said, the fit with Acuff is what it comes down to. Can Jalen feed of Acuff’s playmaking? Who knows. Hell, we don’t even know if Acuff is a playmaker at this level. We do know he comes with some questionable defensive skills, so I guess I’d prefer someone behind him and defense that I know is an elite defender.
Maybe the best outcome here is for Duren to take the QO then hit UFA next summer. The Kings will have the cap space. That way we can see if he is for real and also see if Acuff is as well.
I agree with pretty much everything you say here.
I noted earlier that it would be hard for me to say no to $200m. Maybe Duren sees it as saying yes to leaving $87m on the table, which is what the $200m deal shorts him of the max. It’s a weird time for this group of 2nd contract guys and their agents. The apron is real and it is wreaking havoc on what used to be a rite of passage.
Yeah, to double down, Jalen had one good year (a contract year!). His first 3 were rather pedestrian. His one good year also coincided with the best year Detroit has had in near a generation. Was he a product of team success or a key cog to get there? Combo of both?
I should also note, he returned to those pedestrian numbers when it counted the most…in last year’s playoffs. The guy averaged 10 and 8 through 14 games. Yikes.
Playoff Jalen is the least of my worries. And he’d fit right in with playoff Ben.
I still like Max and Dylan. Perry brought them in and I think they should have a chance for Max to start and Cardwell to back him up. To me 200 mil is not what the Kings should offer for one not proven long term center. Find another way to trade Sabonis maybe to the Hornets or Raptors. Next year Perry can do a lot to rebuild the Kings even without Duren. GO KINGS!
I’m not ready to anoint Maxi or Dylan as the future bigs of the Kings just yet. If either of them become a solid backup, I’d good with it. As of today, if they are your big rotation (much like last year) this team isn’t sniffing 30 wins.
Maxi has the offense and Dylan has the defense. Too bad they can’t morph into one player.
I’ll go for that.
I think what you are saying is pretty true Murf.
They might not be comparable player, at least directly, but they have a comparable value, even if the strength and weaknesses are different.
I probably value rebounding more than most, as Coach Fitch at EGHS always said, you can’t win if you don’t have the ball, so I do like both Sabonis and Duren quite a bit.
But as Adam noted, and Sabonis being one of my ten favorite players in the league, Duren is so young that whilst 5yr/200m is a gamble, the lane for it turning out is pretty wide with what he has done already and the physical specimen he is.
You can’t stand at the craps table and be afraid to roll the dice.
OT: Damn, quite a lot for Steph.
That’s the same that Kawhai got in Toronto. It is also less than what he could have asked for. I think it is good on teheDubs for doing that. They should keep Curry a Dub for life. That is so rare these days.
Yeah, good all around. Curry taking less, though he really should have taken even less IMO, could help the team add better players. Probably bee seeing more of this on 3rd or 4th contracts in the future.
I’ll buy a ticket on the “biggest signing in Sacramento history” train after they make it to the NBA finals. Until then that distinction belongs to Chris frkn Webber, hands down.
My non-Sabonis trade idea is Monk, Hunter, Raynaud, and the ‘31 MIN first for Duren and Duncan Robinson. DET has had interest in Monk in the past, get an expiring wing in Hunter and a shooting big, and a juicy first. Kings get Duren in the door instead of leaving things up for chance next summer. They also get off an extra year of Monk. Raynaud becomes expendable in this scenario.
I have seen other posts about losing leverage to trade Sabonis if he doesn’t go out in the Duren trade. What kind of leverage do they have now? Instead of other teams willing to give us matching salary and a few seconds, they give us matching salary and one second? I would just salary dump Sabonis at that point and turn the page. I bet that will be the eventual outcome anyhow.
In this scenario, the Kings could find another free agent to target (RJ Barrett? MPJ? Lu Dort? Herro?) next summer and finally head into a new era.
Buddy Hield is the new Luke Ridnour
Two former Kings SGs on one team (Kevin Huerter).
Huerter is on the Pistons now. Hard to keep up with all the movement around the league when we are lulled to sleep by the inactivity of the Kings.
Whoops, lol. Completely forgot.
Man, keeps getting wilder and wilder.
He feels “disrespected” by the Pistons, lol. “Here is $200m, come play some basketball for us.”
Generational money that he’s toying with because he wants a few extra million per year that will never affect his standard of living. Just wild.
“…but watch your weight.”
Lol gotta love these shenanigans when they’re not our team.
Remember the first rule about the Kangz, Jalen Durden – no one talks about this fight club.
Badge Legend