Is Jalen Duren really going to do this?

If the Jonathan Kuminga rumors and drama felt like they took forever last season, this season’s Jalen Duren saga is trying to match it. With just a week left until Duren’s qualifying offer deadline (October 1), Duren and the Pistons have yet to agree on a new contract. The Pistons have reportedly increased their offer to a five-year, $200 million fully guaranteed deal with no player or team options, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania. While it is less than the supermax that Duren was reportedly seeking heading into the summer, it’s still slightly more than he would get if he took the qualifying offer this year and then signed a maximum contract with another team (like the Kings) next summer. It also carries a lot less risk, given that he’s guaranteed to get that money now, whereas anything can happen in a year that could derail his value. Just look at what’s been going on with Jonathan Kuminga this summer.

The Kings are widely believed to be the team most interested in Duren, but should he become an unrestricted free agent next summer, they’d hardly be the only team interested. The Kings have historically not been a premier free-agent destination, and landing Duren would undoubtedly be the biggest signing in Sacramento history. It’s much more likely that the team is being used as leverage in these contract negotiations and that the Pistons and Duren’s camp will come to some sort of agreement before training camp. Still, I don’t fault Scott Perry and this front office for trying to do what they can to entice Duren to come here; 23-year-olds who have already made All-NBA teams don’t become available often, and almost never to teams like the Kings.

While Duren’s qualifying offer deadline is October 1, the team and Duren can mutually agree to extend that deadline, but they’d have to do so by the October 1 date. The math and the money still seem to be on Detroit’s side, but perhaps Duren feels disrespected enough by their initial offers that he’s ready to make the bet of a lifetime. I just have my doubts that he’s really that willing to leave that much money on the table for the opportunity to join the Sacramento Kings. But hey, I’d be happy to be wrong.