The Play-In seeding is set. The late-season struggles of the Sacramento Kings landed them 9th in the Western Conference, in the bottom half of the Play-In bracket. Since the Kings haven’t been in the Play-In before, I thought it would be beneficial to do a quick review of how it works, as well as the ramifications on Sacramento’s draft pick this year.
The Kings will start on Tuesday with a game against the Golden State Warriors, in a chance to avenge themselves after last year’s playoff loss. This is a one game matchup. The winner moves on, the loser’s season is over.
If the Kings win against the Warriors, they will then play another game against either the Los Angeles Lakers or the New Orleans Pelicans. The Lakers and Pelicans will play each other Tuesday, prior to Kings/Warriors. The winner of that game will be the 7th seed. The loser of that game would be the Kings (or Warriors) matchup in the second Play-In game. Just like before, this is a one game series. Winner is the 8th seed, loser’s season is over.
In short, to make the playoffs (and to be clear, the Play-In is not considered to be the playoffs), the Kings need to win their next two games.
Onto the matter of Sacramento’s draft pick. The Kings owe the Atlanta Hawks a protected first round pick. This year the pick is top-14 protected, meaning that the Kings will keep their pick if the pick is anywhere in the lottery. With the introduction of the Play-In, the 13th and 14th picks aren’t decided until after the tournament. Luckily for us, it makes the pick easy to track.
If the Kings win both their games and advance as the 8th seed, the pick goes to Atlanta. If the Kings lose and miss the playoffs, regardless of whether it’s in the first or second Play-In game, the Kings keep their pick.
If the pick does not convey this year, the pick is top-12 protected next season, and top 10 protected the following year. After that, if it hasn’t conveyed, the pick becomes two second round picks.
Given that this year is viewed as a particularly weak draft, Kings fans should certainly be hoping to convey the pick this season. Doing so would also free up future first round picks for trades. The Kings still have the ability to trade future firsts if the pick doesn’t convey this year, but it becomes much more complicated.
Here’s hoping the Kings can simply win their next two games, convey the pick, and then be a nightmare matchup for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Thanks.
So just win these two games and the season will feel quite a bit different again, I suppose.
(P.S. Typo in the title: “affects”.)
Updated title. (You’re correct it should have been affects instead of effects, but it felt weird to me so I went with impacts)
Wish I could feel confident in a one game playoff against Curry . Just don’t !
It’s worse than that. It’s a one game playoff against Curry, then if won, another one game playoff against the LeBrons or the Pels. It’s a gauntlet no mater which way you look at it.
I honestly think this is not all that bad of a trade off considering the rollercoaster that has been this season. I see the merit of making the playoffs and getting another year of credibility and experience even if its an exit in the first round. It comes also with the noted caveat that the conveyed firsts would open up bigger potential trades.
In the same token considering the odds seem to be against us in getting a spot, I wouldn’t mind that lottery pick for an addition or draft day trade. I think the west will improve, hopefully we do as well, but we do have less resources than some to make such additions this summer. A younger add in a draft with variance in evaluations in the lottery could fetch needed youth and talent. Even with the Hawks commitment expunged many could beat us in trades where multiple picks are attached in future boatload offers. That said an assured lottery pick may be able to fetch something for a team wanting a specific name on draft day. Obviously likely for not the same return but also in a less costly expense. Arguably a more practical alternative when the question of how good is this team really? is a regular debate even for the nightly watchers.
Its a knife edge I can’t say Monte planned for but it’s worth noting the silver linings in the predicament. We are injured entering a tough path to the playoffs. That said we do have a shot. The other path is a bargaining chip or ability to add some needed talent that wasnt assumed at the beginning of this season. Of course I wish things were different but here we are.
Best outcome: Beat the Dubs and Pels/Lakers.
Alternative outcome: Bryant writes draft previews on Ron Holland, Tyler Smith, and DaRon Holmes.
DaRon is a baaaaad man.
I’m surprised he’s not ranked higher, but I also get Bagley vibes from him.
I would have been OK with Bagley at 13 or14.
Less pressure. Just make it as a rotation player and maybe a starter somewhere mid-career.
At the time, sure, but not any more. He’d be a late first round pick in a re-draft.
Yeah, there are easily 18+ guys that you would take ahead of him in a re-draft. What a deep draft, and what a stunningly bad pick.
At 13 or 14?
What has he done that warrants being drafted?
Reading is fundamental:
And my guess is that most folks would have seen him as a steal at 13-14 at the time.
Truth.
I second that and support any level of basic literacy as a human right.
Reading is fundamental…
So..your opinion is he should have been picked at 13 or 14 and you would be ok with that.
What has he done that warrants being drafted?
Knowing what he is you are good with him at 13 or 14?
Conversations ok?
In. The. Year. 2018, I. Would. Have. Been. Fine. Spending. A. 13. Or. 14. Pick. On. Marvin. Bagley. Based. On. What. We. Knew. About. Him. At. That. Time.
Appreciate the attempt at conversation.
Best outcome is the Kings beat the Dubs and Lakers, sending both those teams on vacation and franchises into tailspins knowing their respective eras are over.
When does a Lakers era ever end? Their fanbase goes into a meltdown when they don’t win a title or two every decade.
It will end with a King’s defeat, soon enough!
IS THAT SO MUCH TO ASK?!?
Funny you should mention these guys. I was looking at hype video of those exact same three guys last night. While I think Zach Edey is intriguing for a number of reasons, I think the Kings need a big athletic (6’9″+) PF most of all. Kinda leaning towards Holmes based on 5 minutes of seeing each guy.
I know it was difficult to tell during The Toxic Booger Years, but at my core I am an optimist and always BELIEVE.
I fully expect this team to surprise us and make some noise. Hell yea I do.
I’m nervous, but hopeful. Playing the Warriors yet again is rough, but at least Keon adds more defensive options against the guards, so it might not be so nightmarishly close.
I’m really hoping the Pelicans get their revenge, because I feel very good about a Lakers showdown.
Really, though, I mostly want us to make it in. We have assets that we can spend IF we convey this pick. Don’t make it in, the budget gets painful during a critical juncture.
Go Kings!
This is the time for Mike Brown to come up with a good plan, especially regarding Domas.
I think the Dubs allow the fewest points in the paint.
If it’s simply Splash Brothers against Spray Brothers I won’t fancy our chances much.
did you just coin that?
Well, I used a version of this before.
Spray Bros gotta get paid!
Excellent.
It would make sense to be Kerr’s opening plan. Have Domas shoot the jumper, clog paint to prevent Fox drive and Domas dribble. If the first half open 3s fall, then Kerr may adjust?
I know all of you watched last nights game. Just a little thing but Sabonis was hitting mid range shots and a three. Might be possible if he did this tomorrow night it might have an effect on the outcome.
I was there and thought the same thing. Make 50% of the middies and 1-2 from three and it’s a new scenario.
Problem is that the offense is typically very spread out when Sabonis shoots these rare shots, as they’re never (rarely) a set play. Nobody is in position to rebound. So score or one-and-done.
Clearly he can do it but seems so focused on getting teammates shots. . Too unselfish ( very rare flaw ) .
Who are the Spray Brothers? Harrison Barnes and someone else?
Let’s launch (and make) those 3s baby!
when people refer to this year’s draft class as being weak, I think they are referring to the top 5 prospects and not the overall depth. A late lottery pick should get a good player.
That being said, I agree it would be better for the Kings to advance to the playoffs.
This is disappointing.
NBACentral on X: “Get-in prices for the NBA Play-In: Warriors @ Kings: $212 Hawks @ Bulls: $58 Heat @ 76ers: $50 Lakers @ Pelicans: $39 (Via @TickPick ) https://t.co/iiEVs2nYuM” / X (twitter.com)
Oof. Bay area tech folks driving up prices.
Aren’t the prices set by the franchise?
Yes. Pretty sure the prices in that tweet are the primary prices set by the team, not the secondary market.
Yes but demand sets the price right? We don’t have salaries like those in the Bay Area, those demand would affect pricing I would think.
It’s funny, I donate my work to a big art auction, and when I’m feeling insecure, the organizers have reminded me…. ..It only takes two people to start a bidding war. 😉
I opened up Ticketmaster this morning then QUICKLY closed it. I think yelling in the living room seems attractive enough.
Seems more like price gouging . Kings could give loyal season tix holders a real break but they don’t .
This would make sense. Locals discount based on home address, and then charge the $500 lower level seats to our Bay Area friends.
The ticket prices to STH was announced last month, not yesterday.
For my seats: (Row C, lower bowl, end of sideline section)
$145/seat Regular Season
$ 192/seat Play-In
Which is more ? Loyalty not rewarded .
$484/seat for Unrenewed Play-In (the seats were renewed for next season).
Outrageous price gouging by the only team in the division that doesn’t spend to win.
Gotta pay Keon.
OT: I really thought I should share what Tim pointed out this morning before it’s lost to the interwebs. There is going to be a discussion this summer of giving Fox a max extension, but these numbers give me concern.
Those numbers are very concerning and it felt very noticeable this year even compared to last year. I’m fine with him shooting more 3’s but there’s a balance that has to be there and right now it’s tipped too far in one direction. I can’t tell if it’s an issue with him feeling like he can’t stay healthy for a full 82 game season driving that much or if he’s lost just a smidge of athleticism. I guess time will tell.
Might also be coaching. Or a combination of all that.
It could be coaching but I would seriously question why any coach would advise Fox to drive that much less. It seems the annual drop in at rim field goal rate also predates this current coaching staff so it seems something else may be going on.
The thing is that isn’t just based on threes. Fox takes a lot more midrange shots now too. Early in his career Fox used his speed and took a lot of shots at the rim. Now he has a much more varied shot profile.
Yeah and last year I thought the shot profile was about right. This year? Not so much. He clearly isn’t driving as much as he used to and to be fair, his three point shot percentage went through the roof this year which probably explains a lot of the change at least for this season.
I care more about point totals and efficiency than where on the court he gets his points.
I completely agree but his efficiency went down this year despite his three point percentage going up quite a bit. That doesn’t happen very often.
I am sure Fox would give up more of those 3pt shots to Huerter, Murray or Barnes, if they were more efficient or willing.
It is ridiculous to know that Fox is the best high volume 3pt shooter on this team, a team full of good shooters.
Speaking of contracts, why the heck did Monte pick up Duarte’s option for next year? Coulda used that money for Monk or a free agent
Did Monte really do that? Was it recently?
I think it was back in October.
Ah, I must’ve missed that.
is he even worth a second at this point? I suspect not.
He didn’t have much of an outside shot then. Now he does. Fox is vastly improved year-over-year. His decision-making and options have also changed since the arrival of Sabonis as well as Huerter.
His 3pt shooting for this season is at the league average and is 7th on the team, yet he shoots the most 3’s of any King. He may be improved, but it doesn’t make him or the team better.
Not looking at stats but….
He loses the ball in the paint more than any other King as well.
Playing ISO Fox ignoring the four defenders waiting for him.
Yes you also have to look at stats. Your mind can only process a small number of samples.
Even with stats, you need to figure out which stat is best to correlate with what you are looking for.
I think this is what you want to look for
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/drives?TeamID=1610612758&dir=D&sort=DRIVES
You can scroll to the 3rd column to the last, which is the TOV%. Fox is at 5.6%TOV, Monk is 6.5% and Sabonis is 7.4%.
Players change over time. Fox relies on speed. As he gets older, and as the NBA has figured him out, it is harder for him to score. Fox needs to develop a shot and a veteran presence.
Driving into four defenders is not worth a max extension. Let the man go.
LOL. Who’s Tim? Allow me to remind you. When McGenius pulled off the incredible trade for Domas, that launched Fox career into the rarified air, our Friend Tim tweeted ” I HATE THIS FRONT OFFICE”.
Really? While you were hating, I was falling head over heels in love with this Front Office.
I only remember this because it was the transformational moment of this franchise AND I keep the receipts. And when a keyboard warrior and fan is so EGREGIOUSLY misguided I remember. Being sort of wrong and semi-wrong may slip by conscience, but I remember the overt clownishness and self-indicting trollishness because it is FUN and FUNNY and may come be a relevant reference in the future.
Now being wrong is NO crime. No harm no foul no biggie it is all good. I am wrong. Being wrong is LIFE. Life is about making mistakes licking your wounds learning and being less wrong. But when you are EGRIGIOUSLY wrong, and arrogant about it, when you are SO off base you are NOT on the field, you are on the outside of the stadium, you are outside of the area code in which the stadium resides, you have the discernment of a turnip.
Do you have ANY idea how good Domas is? Or did you? And if you don’t know be aware at least of what you don’t know and proceed accordingly. Knowing what you don’t know is a sign of intelligence. The idiots don’t let that stop them. Sad Note: There are a lot of idiots.
Domas is friggin amazing. He’s generational. He’s indestructible. He’s better than C-Webb. He’s better than Cousins. And yet he’s not perfect and in my last post I told you the manner in which he was imperfect. He choked away the PHX game because he wants to win SO bad, and plays SO hard, his discernment was compromised due to combination of stress and fatigue. This led to the rebounding fouls and a tragic careless pass.
In addition, he needs to emulate the greats, in particular the peers in which he compares, Joker and Embiid. No one says the obvious but I say it. So am I genius to point out what no one else seems to recognize? You decide. Doams did what he needed to do versus POR, swishing 4 outside shots, including two 3s, all net. Calm and fluid and splash. This is what we need, this is what the team needs. The over / under tomorow on perimeter shots is +/- 2,5 . Over we win, under, I am not so sure.
Domas can shoot the ball. So he needs to shoot the ball instead of driving into multiple defenders when the path is not clear. There is a time to ox your way to the cup and a time to use touch and finesse. It is not advanced physics, it is common sense.
Fast forward to tomorrow, Fearless Fox, and from now on every time I post her I will refer to the NBA league leader in Steals, who deserves a spot on All-NBA and All-Defense, and a Super Max, as Fearless Fox, is going to be the BEST PLAYER ON THE COURT.
Tomorrow Fearless Fox leaves no doubt.
Tomorrow Fearless Fox overcomes the haters the doubters and the refs.
Tomorrw Fearless Fox overcomes the pessimistic side of you.
Tomorow is the pinacle of Fox career because everything has been leading to this moment.
You had your time Curry. Time to Pass the Torch.
Meanwhile the Doomers are like “Uh how bout we trade Fox for Brandon Miller”.
WTF.
I am too good for this site. Why am I here? You’re welcome.
Don’t get it twisted.
The 9th seed is a tragedy. It is an epic failure. But it is okay for the following:
Fearless Fox has waited for this moment. As has Domas. As has Davion. Kevin waited for it too. And hoped he could call in sick and his wish came true. When you are scared you hope to have an excuse not to show up to the basis of your fear.
I kind of sort of even believe that HB has waited for this moment, to redeem himself for the Game 4 miss being shunned by his former team exploiting the 4th or 5th worst defender on the floor assigned to him.
Call me crazy but I sort of kind of believe in HB.
Tomorrow Fearless Fox will shine. The Warriors are OLD and SLOW. To eliminate them from post season competition is OUR championship. Whether we go any further is less important than ending their season. Do you get it?
Tomorrow is NOT about advancing. Tomorrow is about eliminating. Thats the objective. Then we can consider other possibilities. That’s all for now. Ciao frens.
Sending Green and Klay and Curry into the Off-Season IS our championship game?
How is this NOT obvious??! Maybe in the same everyone else around here doubted the defining trade of this iteration of the team. Oblivious to the obvious. Do better Kings fan. Follow my lead.
lol
I’m definitely bookmarking this post.
You’re doing the Lord’s work Adam.
The Warriors have gone 27-12 in the last 39 games. They could go through to the Western Conference Finals.
Hoping for a surprise tomorrow. Need big games from everyone, I guess, but, for me, especially Keon, Keegan and Harrison.
In a single game elimination situation your stars need to step up. Of course some role players need to have good games but they need big games from Fox and Sabonis.
Do you think the Hawks would be agreeable to renegotiating the terms and accept the 13th or 14th pick if that scenario plays out? Wouldn’t it be in the Hawks best interest to agree? Would the Kings even do that in order to free up draft capitol for a potentially bigger move?
No pick conveyance is guaranteed, especially with a franchise like the Kings. I’d imagine ATL looks at Sac and really wonders if they will make the playoffs going forward. They are also devoid of picks after leveraging their future for Murray.
They may just happily take the pick as a bird in hand situation.
Mike Better not come out with the same substitution rotations. I’m tired of seeing him pull Fox with 6 minutes left in the 1st quarter and giving up a huge lead. Then playing from behind the rest of the game.
I was really hoping the Kings would at least get the 8 seed. There’s a bid difference between the 7/8 and 9/10 seeds. The 9 and 10 seeds are in a play-in tournament. They have to win both games to get the number 8 spot in the real playoffs. The 7/8 teams are in a play out tournament. They have to lose two games to get eliminated from the playoffs.
If the KIngs lose, I assume they get a lottery ticket. I think Orlando one year missed out to the Pacers for the last playoff spot and ended up with the number 1 pick, which they used to draft Shaquille O’Neal. I may be wrong on that story, but a draft pick is still worth something.
Good players are available in a weak draft. The Kings could steal someone at 14. That would make missing the playoffs worthwhile. Otherwise, beat Golden State!
If I’m not mistaken, that loss to the Suns because of a lazy pass by Sabonis cost the Kings the 7 spot. 2 points translated into 2 spots.
Reply to self. I was wrong. We’d be the 8 spot facing the Pelicans away if we’d won. Still better than needing to win two.
I think the Pels would have finished a game ahead of the Suns, so we’d have finished in the 8 spot and facing the Suns in Phoenix.
I feel like we hit a stand up double last year and forgot to tag first on the way, so now we have to go back and touch the bag before we head back to 2nd.
This team has had a rough season but held up fair. Not great, but fair. Its nice they still have a shot at the post season, and a chance to punch 2 of their historical antagonists in the mouth in the process. They should do that, it would be good for their confidence and egos no matter what might happen in the playoffs. I’d enjoy it, that’s for sure.
Keeping it positive while there’s still a sliver of light to the season.
Let’s go Kings!
Good stuff, wasn’t up on the whole draft pick situation. Definitely a little disappointed Kings didn’t finish in the 5-8 seed range. This season was a bit less than expected but definitely still successful compared to previous years, being ten games over .500 is pretty good. If by some miracle we could eliminate the Dubs and then Lakers that would almost be the perfect year in a way haha but the 8th seed isn’t much of a consolation prize. Bottom line is the Kings were never going to be contenders this year but I enjoy this team and there is potential to get a lot better still and that could happen over the next few years. There is also no guarantee they will fulfill any of that potential.
OT: Looks like Jordi will be leaving us soonish.
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