At 7th, the Kings have exactly a 15% shot of moving up into the Top 3: 4.3% chance at landing the 1st pick, 4.9% chance at 2nd, and a 5.8% chance at 3rd. The most likely scenario at 59.9% is remaining at 7th, followed by a 23.2% chance of dropping to 8th. Theoretically the Kings could drop even further, but there's only a 1.8% chance of dropping to 9th and less than 0.1% chance of getting 10th.
Should the Kings end the season in a tie with the Lakers, their odds will be combined and split, raising Sacramento's odds at the top pick from 4.3% to 5.3%. A coin toss would decide the rankings should neither team jump into the top-3.
Drafting 7th would put the Kings in a range that would include players like Marcus Smart, Noah Vonleh, and Aaron Gordon, but likely missing out on the big names like Wiggins, Parker and Embiid.
Since the most current lottery system was implemented in 1994, the Kings have never managed to improve their position. Who knows, maybe this is our year.
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