Sacramento Kings center Domantas Sabonis will be out for at least the next 10 days with a bone bruise in his knee. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski was the first to report the news, and the Kings confirmed with a press release a short time later.
ESPN Sources: Sacramento's Domantas Sabonis has a bruised left knee and will be re-evaluated once Kings return from upcoming five-game trip. Imaging shows no structural damage after Sunday's collision vs. Suns. Kings will only have four games left after re-evaluation on April 2.
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) March 21, 2022
It’s great news that Sabonis doesn’t have a serious injury. Sabonis was injured on knee-to-knee contact, and a bone bruise seemed the most likely outcome, but it’s still a relief that it wasn’t a more serious injury.
The timeframe means Sabonis will miss at least the next five games, but at this point it wouldn’t be surprising if Sacramento shuts Sabonis down for the remainder of the year. With the play-in firmly out of reach, there’s no need to rush Sabonis back, and resting Sabonis likely helps the Kings lottery odds.
This means the Kings will be without both Sabonis and Richaun Holmes, with Holmes out the remainder of the year due to personal reasons. The Kings will likely feature Damian Jones and Alex Len, and I’m hopeful we’ll also see some developmental minutes for Neemias Queta.
Be well Domas. A few other thoughts.
No need to rush De’Aaron back now.
Get Jones, Metu and Queta all the minutes. Alex Len if necessary.
Start Mitchell and DiVicenzo. Play Jackson lots of minutes so you don’t burn Harrison Barnes. Play Lamb and Holiday all the minutes you want now.
Be pretty surprised if the Kings won more than 3-4 games in this last stretch of 10 games even with the schedule softening (on this trip particularly).
Best possible outcome, not a long term injury but good enough to secure a top 5 bid on our lottery odds. Shut everyone down and send everyone to start scouting.
Still pushing the play-in….Vivek? Matina? Great idea the whole time.
PDX could easily lose out. I wouldnt be so quick to assume top 5 lottery odds.
While I could see the Kings goiing 1-9 these next 10 games, I could see them going 5-5 too.
I personally don’t think it matters much either way, and never will.
Portland’s remaining schedule is softer than Pete Chilcutt. I’ll take the over on them losing out.
By the way, the Kings have at or below a .280 winning percentage in 2022, over the past 25 games, or since the Sabonis trade. The Kings really don’t need to try to lose – they do it holistically.
Yeah but knowing Kangs they would have pulled it together and played 500 ball the last 10 games to eventually fall out of the top 8 and somehow convince ourselves that’s its for the better followed by the most ridiculous excuse of well look at how much we sucked at drafting in the past, where did that get us LOL. It’s plain and simple! As a trade asset or otherwise a top 4 pick is a better then the 8th. And no I’m not ever the smartest dude in any room but I say this confidently.
The problem with odds is they are just that. You can be at the 5th slot and end up with the 7th pick because two teams below you in the 6-14th slots jump ahead of you into the top 4.
Whoever finishes with the worst record is only guaranteed the 5th overall pick and has a nearly 50% shot at finishing there.
The odds of the 5th slot getting you the 5th pick is….2.2%. You have a higher chance (about 10% for each slot) of moving into the top 4 than you do at staying at 5. You have a near 50% shot at being in the 6 or 7th slot by the time it’s all said or done.
I wouldn’t get your high hopes up that all this losing really gets the Kings anything.
https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds
Well sure, but anything to increase your odds is worth it, Nate, especially when you have absolutely nothing to gain from wins at this point. Rationalizing that landing 5th only marginally increases your odds from finishing 7th is shooting yourself in the foot a bit.
I’m going to disagree with that ALOT. Like in every way humanly possible. The point is to win. Winning the lottery is only a small part of the ultimate equation overall IMO. Getting the #1 overal pick has never guaranteed anything outside of picking first in the draft.
I’m not rationalizing anything. If anything, it’s the opposite. I was looking at the math odds of where the Kings end up. The Kings aren’t jumping into the top 4. The Kings were 20-35 at the time of the Domas deal and are now 5-13 (25-48 overall) since. (5-10 with Domas on the court.)
They are @Indy, @Orlando, @Miami, @Houston twice, home against GSW, home against New Orleans and @Clippers and @Suns for a b2b to finish the season.
De’Aaron might come back for the games against Houston because it’s his hometown. Or his hand might be painful enough to keep him out. He’ll play if he’s healthy, not if he’s not, I would suspect. But it likely won’t matter. It’s hard to see the Kings winning more than 5 games and that’s assuming the last two of the season.
Indy has a tough schedule down the stretch similar to what Sac has just faced. PDX has a soft schedule and they play San Antonio three times. San Antonio isn’t known for tanking but if there’s any team hurting their lottery position it’s them.
So based on all of this information, it’s my opinion the Kings have the highest odds of finishing 5th, 6th, or 7th. Of those 3 slots, 6th seems to be the best bet. Especially if PDX wins 2 more games which, despite their best efforts, are likely to do.
I’m not sweating the difference between slots 5-7. There’s no Kareem, Shaq or Timmy D you are missing out on. Play to win, and do so at the 38% clip you’ve been going at. The lottery odds fall where they fall despite all the collective hand wringing and pearl clutching that indicates otherwise. Odds say now they are likely to be either 6 or 7. Maybe they get lucky, maybe they get unlucky. But how many games you win at this juncture of the season does not determine whether or not your lottery combination in a little room in Secaucus NJ gets called.
Spin that however you want, Adam, but bottom lines are just that: Bottom lines. And the NBA lottery is a bottom line deal pure and simple. Anything else is rationalization.
Oh yeah, I don’t even know why tanking is much of a discussion w/r/t these Kings. The Kings aren’t trying to lose but aren’t winning (for a variety of reasons).
And it’s not like Domas and De’Aaron don’t have a legitimate injury either. Portland might have legitimately some injured guys beyond Lillard. But I don’t know because I rarely have watched them this season.
wholistically
This is the Kings – Ws are not needed.
“who dat” (Portland) may play a soft schedule but while someone has to win, someone on who dat has to score a bucket.
Yup, It might even be a good time to sign a young wing to a 10 day and kick the tires on some possible future 2-way players.
I’m surprised they hadn’t done that already.
Not surprised as this is the Kangz after all.
Shouldn’t we rather see what we have in our current roster first? I get it for depth purposes I guess but I’d rather see Davion to nuts, get Donte acclimated, is Josh Jackson and Lamb any good? Burn the tires on Metu and Jones see if they have a future with us as well. Maybe Trey Lyles and Justin Holiday become decent trade assets?. We have plenty of intriguing questions already with our current roster I’d have more interest in I guess. Do we need a 2 guard or can davion start for us next year? This draft is heavy on shooting guards in the middle of the lottery unless we are reaching for a forward whom I assume will be mostly all gone by pick 6. ????
Don’t forget Terence Davis is injured. He would be in the mix.
Yeah if he can regain his Toronto form he could form a tandem with DD of the bench, both don’t mind getting physical and both can get hot on offense along with Holmes, Lyles and Holiday as your bench mob. Hoping that Davion start alongside Fox and help contain guards and be an added playmaker on offense. If we strike out on Bradley Beal or Zach Lavine ( I know its a dream but Lavine is friends with Fox so who know if we throw a Max at him) otherwise hope that AJ Griffin lands on our lap at pick 5 or 6 as our future forward.
PG Fox, Davis
SG Davion, DD
SF AJ Griffin, Holiday
PF Barnes, Lyles
C Sabonis, Holmes
Good for 6th seed I’d say
I love your optimism, but I still think the Kings need a legit scoring threat after Fox/Sabs, unless Griffin is that guy, or somebody else in the draft.
Davion is developing nicely, but I still don’t see a lot of scoring punch coming from this group on a consistent basis.
We’ll see what happens, but I expect the Kings to go younger and to unload some of our older vets for promising younger talent.
You aren’t going to learning anything meaningful over the last 9 games of a lost season without your cornerstone players. Exactly zero decisions should be made based on a handful of Tank War matchups.
This.
Yes lets see what we have with our borderline NBA players to determine whether or not they can give us real minutes next year. SMH
“Yes lets see what we have with our borderline NBA players
to determine whether or not they can give us real minutes next yearso we don’t ruin the careers of our potential all-stars by getting injured in meaningless games at the end of a meaningless season.SMH
Quetta !
Blazers are playing a line up of “who dat” and they are one of competitors for 5 or 6th slot.
I would play Slamson, Carmicheal Dave, and any Ranadive.
Sabonis is hurt but it’s not serious! Thank goodness. Oh…but he’s going to miss at least the next 5 games.
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The perfect injury. Not serious and Sabonis out means Vivek and co are being forced to do the right thing.
Tank and development. Morons saved from themselves.
Play tons of Mitchell. Top 6 baby. The Kings may now
actually have a chance to form a team around Fox/Sabs. Assets
Nothing is idiot proof. History has shown that one can always build a better idiot.
Vivek/Matina/Aneel accept your challenge!
Why re-eval after 10 days? Would they really think about bringing him back for the final 4 games? Just re-eval in the offseason.
“What’s wrong with Domas?”
“sabone bruise.”
“Ok.
Well done!! ????
You’re Damonted.
Hooray, another sub-30 games win season!
Sometimes, the tank chooses you, despite you efforts otherwise. This make us keeping our pick even nicer.
I will watch the Kings when the goals cease to be either play-in slot or tank. I expect to be back when there’s an ownership change.
Nevertheless, you’re still here.
And you’ve confirmed what most of us know: You don’t watch the games, and don’t have any real idea of what’s going on.
It’s funny, too, because I’m enjoying Davion and Dante right now. Damian and Chimezie, too.
It’ll be interesting to read this thread a year from now to see which takes remained salient vs which ones do not.
We all chipped in to get you a little something…
Feels like these Top 5 odds are almost totally stitched up! Pretty great news since outside the Top 5 (I got Chet, Jabari, Banchero, Murray, and Ivey – in that order), the draft gets pretty dicey! Mathurin or Griffin could maybe work if we slip, but I’m far less convinced on them.
Sabonis and dare I say the universe is acting in the Kings best interest. This is the most consequential way he could help the team down the stretch. I suggests a patient precautionary rehab after those 10 days till April 16th.
Embarrassed to say but tankathon is officially a morning habit as seamless as wordle and coffee. Hope strikes again.
How many years in a row do you accept a tank in hopes for a good player?
The Kings haven’t tanked in recent memory. Do you ever recall them sitting their best players near the end of the season. In fact, I’d say they normally do the opposite and get needles and potentially harmful wins. And no, I don’t buy the b.s. that some wins at the end of a losing season somehow “builds momentum” going into next year.
Case in point, last year Toronto finished just behind the Kings going into the lottery seeded at 7th while the Kings were at 3 way tie for 8th, 9th, and 10th. Toronto jumped to 4th and snagged Scottie Barnes. So far the Raptors have already increased their win total by 13 wins. Lottery seeding matters when you have a shitty roster.
You could also chalk up that example with Toronto to simple good luck.
So does having lucky lottery balls. Yet you always seem to ignore this part of the equation.
Well sure it’s luck, but it’s also math. Having more shots at moving up is better than having less shots of moving up.
More ping-pong balls good, less ping-pong balls bad.
More ping pong balls has slightly better odds than less lottery balls. It is still mainly about luck. Which is, in fact, the point.
So making decisions based on probabilities is pointless because it’s all luck anyway?
I am going to completely revise my poker and blackjack strategy then! Fuck it, hit every time!
No, that’s not what I said. There’s very little to gain mathematically by tanking unless you do it from the very start. And the Kings haven’t tanked, they just aren’t good enough to win games as constructed.
That’s just mathematically incorrect so I am not sure what point there is in continuing this discussion, but alas:
The 6 spot in the lotto has a 54.3% chance of falling to 7-10; whereas the 5 spot has only a 36% chance of falling to 7-9.
It’s not just about the difference in chance to move up (5 spot has a 44.2% chance of being top 5; the 6 spot has a 37.2% chance of being top 5), it’s about the significantly larger chance of falling even further out of the top 6 from the 6 spot in the lotto versus the 5 spot.
The Kings three (3) most import assets at present are (1) Fox; (2) Sabonis; and (3) their 1st this season.
Good sports franchises make rational decisions (meaning based on data and risk/reward analysis) even accounting that luck can always advance or inhibit good decision making.
Obligatory.
It’s not that your math is wrong Tony, it’s that your analysis and interpretation based on said analysis sucks.
Slot 5 Odds:
1st: 10.5%
2nd: 10.5%
3rd: 10.6%
4th: 10.5%
5th: 2.2%
6th: 19.6%
7th: 27.6%
8th: 3.7%
9th: 0.6%
You have a 47.2% chance of finishing 6 or 7. You have a 42.1% chance of finishing in the top 4. You have a 2.2% chance of staying at 5. You have a 4.3% chance at dropping to 8 or 9.
Slot 6 odds:
1st: 9.0%
2nd: 9.2%
3rd: 9.4%
4th: 9.6%
5th: 0% (6 & below cannot move into 5)
6th: 8.6%
7th: 29.8%
8th: 20.8%
9th: 3.7%
10th: 0.2%
You have a 50.6% chance of finishing 7 or 8. You have a 37.2% chance of finishing in the top 4. You have a 8.6% chance at staying at 6 and and a 3.9% chance of dropping to 9 or 10.
The biggest new difference in the lottery is that 4 teams can jump instead of just 3.
These are the draft lottery results from previous years. Toronto jumped from 7 to 4, Cleveland 5 to 3, Detroit 2 to 1. Houston dropped from 1 to 2, Orlando dropped 3 to 5, OKC dropped 4 to 6 and Golden State (from Minnesota) dropped from 6 to 7.
In 2020, Minnesota jumped from 3 to 1, Charlotte jumped from 8 to 3, Chicago jumped from 7 to 4. Golden State dropped from 1 to 2, Cleveland dropped from 2nd to 5, Atlanta dropped from 4th to 6th, Detroit dropped from 5th to 7th, and New York dropped from 6th to 8th.
So, in the end stripping this to the final analysis, if you wish to argue that there’s a big difference between 5-8 in this year’s draft and picks from 5, 6, 7 and 8 from each other, fine. Argue away. But historically speaking there isn’t and good franchises aren’t worried about lottery odds more than winning games.
Gee, I always got the impression that Monte McNair is clutching his cross hoping for losses. And an emotional wreck doing so at that.
In a bruise to Vivek’s ego, injuries have forced the Kings’ hand – the Kings knee‘d to tank now!
Sidenote for all if you’re curious about Buddy:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-a-one-dimensional-player-change-his-game-with-a-new-team-ask-buddy-hield/?ex_cid=538twitter
It’s almost like this terrible team objectively makes players worse, or something.
Its the Kings, therefore everything is subject-ive…
Ouch. The few paragraph that compare Buddy to Holiday are really revealing. Buddy’s gotten better in Indy and has become their pre-trade Holiday, while Holiday has gotten worse and become the Kings pre-trade Buddy.
For anyone who doesn’t think coaching is all that important, I present to you Rick Carlisle’s revitalization of Buddy Hield
I remember Joerger had Buddy playing decently because he was using Buddy’s strengths instead of just letting him run away with the ball and jacking up shots. No coincidence that when the coaching changed, so did Buddy.
Agreed. Carlisle has always reminded of a coach that doesn’t pull his punches and isn’t afraid to bench a guy for making bonehead plays. He’s kind of like Pop in that way. He’s not there to be your cheerleader and tell you “good job” as you come off the court. He’s the kind of guy to step in front of player as he heads the bench and tells him what he really thinks. He’s an old school coach that knows how to get blood from a turnip.
And I really worry Vivek’s involvement will yield another “players-first” HC hire…
Totally, and I really hope Monte has full control to hire a “wins-first” coach as opposed to a “players-fist” coach.
Even though he did hire Dave Joerger and Michael Malone? Vivek Ranadive isn’t great at ownership, but what he’s guilty most of is A) trusting the wrong people and B) reacting emotionally and acting on those emotions in part due to impatience or desperation.
I’d like to blame Vivek for everything, I really would, but he’s not to blame for hiring Luke Walton. Firing him? I think that was definitely a Vivek Ranadive inspired idea.
Player A: 28.5MPG PTS 16.5 40/39/78 (FG%/3FG%/FT%) REB 4.1 AST 2.1 TOV 1.6 ORtg 108.2 DRtg 108.8
Player B: 28.7MPG PTS 13.4 37/35/90 (FG%/3FG%/FT%) REB 4.0 AST 1.8 TOV 1.6 ORtg 106.4 DRtg 113.7
Player C: 36.4 MPG PTS 16.5 44/33/89 (FG%/3FG%/FT%) REB 4.6 AST 5.0 TOV 2.3 ORtg 119.8 DRtg 115.5
Player A is Buddy Hield under Luke Walton in 17 games, Player B is Buddy under Alvin Gentry in 38 games and Player C is Buddy under Carlisle in 16 games.
You can pretend there’s something in the water, or you can accept that maybe SOME (and probably the least significant part at that) of the issue was that Hield and Gentry never saw eye to eye. This is twice Buddy has been in traded in season when Gentry was the head man.
I don’t know what this means, exactly, but I do know there’s no way Buddy averages 5 assists outside of a small sample size.
He might be notching 5 assists but his assist to turnover ration didn’t budge much so its all kind of a wash in the end. Buddy, no matter who is coaching, is not exactly the poster child for “efficiency”. And I don’t miss him in any way.
+1: After reading the article I’ll add that coaching makes a difference. And no offense to Gentry but this team could definitely benefit from better coaching.
I agree on those 5 assists per game averages, but a few more games at that pace and that’s 25% of the season. When does it no longer become a sample size? Keep in mind he’s also doing that while playing next to Hali and Brogdon. He’s getting 5 a game within the flow of the offense with two other legit facilitators. Even if he regressed to something like 4 assists per game, that’d be the best of his career.
Now what that article doesn’t really address is the other side of the floor. I had more issue with Buddy’s defense than I had with his assist numbers, which never really bothered me for a gunner.
I’ll believe it for a full season. And will happily admit I’m wrong.
Let’s lock down that #5 spot, jump into the top three, and live happily after eventually.
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