For the purpose of our exercise, let’s keep the unknown simple. Let’s say that no matter what agreement is reached, the salary cap and luxury tax will be similar to the one that existed this year, if for no other reason than to allow teams an opportunity to transition to whatever the new agreement ultimately mandates. In other words, the meat of the new CBA would really go into effect more in 2012-13, with 2011-12 having some transition components. This would mean (in rounded numbers) a minimum payroll of $44m, a salary cap of $58m, and a luxury tax threshold of $70m. Now, my uneducated guess is that the cap will come down at least a little initially, and the luxury tax threshold may come down several million dollars. I also think that there will be an amnesty clause for teams, whereby they can jettison a fat contract – they will still have to pay the player 100 cents on the dollar, but they will be able to wipe the contract and its cap and tax liabilities off their books. Again, this is a blind arse guess on my part.

Depending on the new financial landscape, there could be a few restricted free agents that simply become too expensive for their current teams. These RFA’s are all due a qualifying offer from their current team, and these guys can shop themselves for the best contract. Their current team may then match the offer or decline the opportunity, or they can negotiate a sign and trade so that they do not walk away completely empty-handed.