The Play-In begins tonight, but the Kings won’t play until Wednesday. With an extra day between games, it seems like a good time for a quick refresher on how the Play-In works and the scenarios the Kings could face. We’ll also take a quick look at what it all means for the Kings 2025 NBA Draft pick, since that question came up in a couple of threads yesterday.
How the Play-In Works
The Play-In consists of teams in 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th place for both conferences. West teams will only face West teams, and East teams will only face other East teams. In each conference, the 7 and 8 seeds play a game against each other. These are the games happening tonight. In the West it’s the Memphis Grizzlies vs. the Golden State Warriors. Whoever wins this game is in the playoffs as the 7th seed. The loser of this game has one more chance to make the playoffs. On Wednesday the 9 and 10 seeds play, and in the West the Kings will host the Dallas Mavericks. Whoever loses that game is immediately eliminated – no second chances. Whoever wins will go on to play the loser of the 7/8 game. The winner of that final game makes the playoffs as the 8 seed.
Clear as mud? Good.
For Kings fans, it’s this simple: The Kings need to win two games to make the NBA Playoffs. Lose either game and the season is over.
How It Impacts the 2025 Draft Pick
Now, if that wasn’t complicated enough, let’s jump into the implications for the Kings 2025 Draft pick. The Kings owe the Atlanta Hawks their 2025 NBA Draft pick, but the pick is top-12 protected. If the pick does not convey this year, it becomes a 2026 pick, top-10 protected. If it doesn’t convey as a first round pick in 2026, it immediately becomes two second rounders, and the obligation is completed.
The key this year is that the Kings will lose their pick unless they land in the top 12 following the lottery. Sadly, there are not a lot of scenarios for the Kings to end up in the top-12.
If the Kings make the playoffs the pick will convey. End of story.
If the Kings miss the playoffs, there are two paths to keeping the pick. First would be if the Kings jump in the draft lottery. We don’t know the exact odds yet, as the final draft lottery odds can still shift based on who makes or misses the playoffs in the East and the West. But assuming the Kings land around 13 or 14 in the lottery (the current most likely scenario), they would have a less than 6% chance at landing in the top 4 of the draft.
There is also a scenario where the Kings could keep their pick but not jump in the lottery. If the Mavericks make the playoffs, and one of the Bulls or Heat make the playoffs, the Kings have a chance to be the 12th pick. If the Hawks also miss the playoffs, the Kings and Hawks would do a coin-flip to determine which was the 12th and which was 13th. If the Hawks make the playoffs, and one of the Bulls or Heat make the playoffs, (and the Mavericks make the playoffs) the Kings would be the 12th seed outright.
I think.
It’s messy, and it’s unlikely. The Kings probably won’t have a first round pick this year. Your best bet is to keep an eye on Tankathon as the Play-In wraps up and we have a bit more clarity in the standings.
Time to go full Stockton and win the whole thing!
If I got anything wrong in the draft pick scenarios, I’m relying on this group to correct me. I’m semi-certain I got it all correct, but I may have messed up somewhere.
It doesn’t matter, it won’t make anyone feel better.
P.S.
You did a great job. It’s rather complicated.
Thank you for the leg work, Greg. You are the glue to this community. We can’t thank you enough.
So basically we’re playing for the right to get swept by OKC AND not have a pick for next years draft class.
Monte, you’ve certainly outdone yourself this time.
If there’s no under-sized, over-aged guards with limited upside that don’t actually help me win now I don’t want a pick.
Said this in the other thread, but I would be down to go after Ja Morant (or Tray Young as others suggested) this off season if the pick conveys. Ideally the move sends out DDR/Monk and some picks. If the Grizzlies don’t make much noise this season in the playoffs, I think moving Ja to focus on what the rest of their team does well makes a lot of sense.
yeah just buy 2k man lol
IMO I would not trade for either one of these.
Same here. I don’t see how they fit with Domas. They just take the ball out of his hands even more. Ja is a great player, but kind of a knucklehead and I think Trae is just another offense only guy. Putting him in the back court with Zach just seems crazy to me.
This is the best GIF i’ve seen in a while.
Ja “Gunnery Sergeant” Morant? Do not want.
I would actually do that trade if I were the Kings or magic, but not sure why the grizzlies would do that. Ja is still a star in this league, even if he’s distressed, that package sucks for the grizz unless it comes with multiple unprotected firsts. But if you can buy that low on Ja, then yeah pull the trigger, something Ja would approve of
I don’t know if this is allowed or not but I got two extra tix to the Mavericks play in game. Section 213, Row N, seats 11-12 I’d like to sell. $199 for the pair. If this isn’t allowed, feel free to delete it.
Try ebay? That’s what I did when I had extra tickets to the 2006 playoffs for game 6, Kings vs Spurs. I couldn’t ship the tickets out in time (back then there weren’t digital tickets readily available), so I had to orchestrate calling the guy, meeting him at a parking lot where he took out a wad of cash for my tickets.
Jesus, I thought the Warriors were going to blow that game against the Grizzlies. Thank goodness.
On top of that, looks like Ja Morant injured his ankle during the game too.
IMO, the Grizz actually play better without Ja. But that was when they had Wells…and the LaRavian Jake.
The Grizz play better without Ja and you guys want to trade for him. Go figure.
It’s called taking a flyer on a distressed asset. Two years ago he was a top 5 player. MM and Vivek have refused to take any risks with their team building.
Small market teams that can’t woo FA’s and have limited assets to build for the future have to take shots like these at some point.
There’s a lot of truth to that. I’m no necessarily advocating for Ja, but a team like the Kings would do well by looking for those distressed assets. It’s how the Kings landed Webber, Artest, and even Harrison Barnes. That being said, there is fine line on distressed assets. Rondo comes to mind or the hellish idea of going after Miles Bridges.
Trae getting himself ejected for childish, petulant behavior last night is a definite turnoff!
I don’t even remember why Atalanta has our pick. We’ve had such horrific management of draft assets, it is appalling they are this bad and this old, and still likely won’t even have a first round pick. Burning it down isn’t even an option because there’s nothing to rebuild with. What a nightmare.
It was part of the Kevin Huerter trade.
Badge Legend