Alperen Sengun: 5 yrs, $185 million
Jalen Green: 3 yrs, $106 million (third year is a player option)
Trey Murphy III: 4 yrs, $112 million
Jalen Suggs: 5 yrs, $150.5 million
Jalen Johnson: 5 yrs, $150 million
Corey Kispert: 4 yrs, $54 million
Moses Moody: 3 yrs, $39 million
Several other rookies had already signed their extensions much earlier.
Cade Cunningham: 5 yrs, $224 million
Evan Mobley: 5 yrs, $224 million
Scottie Barnes: 5 yrs, $224 million
Franz Wagner: 5 yrs, $224 million
So what do these numbers mean for Keegan Murray? I’d expect Keegan to get a contract in line with Trey Murphy at the absolute minimum. Keegan’s number’s last season were comparable to Murphy’s, and it’s reasonable to expect Keegan to continue to improve. If Keegan has a similar season this year to last year, the Murphy numbers will be in play.
I looked at stats for Cade, Barnes, Wagner, and Mobley compared to Keegan’s numbers last year (not a deep dive, just looking at some key stats). Mobley is a bit of an outlier from the others as an interior big man, but didn’t radically alter the big picture conclusion. In short, it would take a huge leap from Keegan for him to be the rookie max range. We’re talking right around 19.5+ points per game, plus an uptick in either rebounds or assists. And if Keegan does that, I’ll be thrilled to watch the Kings reward Keegan, because that type of leap would do wonders for the Kings both this season and going forward.
| PPG | AST | REB | 3pt% | 3pa | PER | BPM | TS% | |
| Keegan | 15.2 | 1.7 | 5.5 | 35.8 | 6.6 | 13.3 | -0.9 | 0.569 |
| Cade | 22.7 | 6 | 3.8 | 35.5 | 5.4 | 17.1 | 0.3 | 0.546 |
| Barnes | 19.9 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 34.1 | 4.9 | 19.5 | 3.7 | 0.566 |
| Mobley | 15.7 | 3.2 | 9.4 | 37.3 | 1.2 | 20.1 | 2.9 | 0.626 |
| Franz | 19.7 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 28.1 | 4.6 | 17.6 | 1.2 | 0.575 |
| Trey | 14.8 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 44.3 | 7.8 | 16.3 | 2.5 | 0.612 |
Number via Basketball Reference
With those outcomes as the floor and ceiling, what’s most likely? I think we’ll be looking at numbers close to the Suggs/Sengun range, with an average annual value between $30 and $40 million. And if the Kings have the opportunity to secure Keegan’s services long-term at that rate, especially with an ever-rising cap, I’ll consider it a good deal for the Kings.
Solid analysis, I’d say, and reasonable conclusions.
I find I am in agreement with both Greg and now andy_sims.
sigh and double sigh
I know kids, I’m scared too.
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All I know is Keegs better get back to hitting the 3 ball. Still bricking in pre season. The Kings need Keegan’s 3 almost more than his D.
Unless he turns in a Mikal Bridges level defender, I would agree with this. As a #4 pick, expectations for Keegan need to be high. Ideally as DeRozan ages, Keegan works his way to the be the # 1 option on offense and needs to be at least a fringe All-Star within the next few years. Love what Fox brings, but we’re not going deep into the playoffs if Fox has to carry the bulk of the scoring load.
Yes. Hopefully he blossoms- if he’s hitting the 3 he will.
I think this was meant to say FIVE years.
Jalen Johnson: 3 years, $150 million
I like Jalen Johnson, but not for that much.
He was the one I was thinking was closest to Keegan’s potential extension. Jalen is also a bit of a late bloomer. His current career arc honestly reminds of of Kevin Martin, who hardly played his rookie year, looked promising his second year, but made the jump his third year.
If Keegan can improve on last year’s performance, I think he’s easily worth 5 years at $150M.
An important note, if Monte should decide to hang onto Huerter, his contract comes off the books the year Keegan’s extension would kick in, which may be reason enough to hang onto him instead of moving is contract for a longer one. DeRozan is also only partially guaranteed that same season. Point being, if Monte wishes, he’s have the cap space to pay Keegan.
Now let’s go see Keegan earn it this season!
Correct, typed that wrong. I’ll fix that.
Assuming Keegan does well of course, I’d expect it to be Sengun level or somewhat higher for AAV considering the 25% max for the first year projects to go up a little less than $4M. For Keegan’s class, the rising cap will bump up the money against the comparable players in the just-signed class.
Does Keegan being pushed into a unnatural role of power forward or a three playing in the block going to hurt him statistically and contractually?
Keegan is solid and definitely should be kept. Nobody knows what he is in the NBA as a four or a stretch three. Either way Keegan will play hard and intelligently.
You do realize that about half of the “power forwards’ in the league are Keegan’s size and it was what he played all throughout college, right? His physique is the current NBA stretch 4.
He is the same size or bigger than the following starting NBA PFs: Scottie Barnes, Jayson Tatum, Jalen Johnson, Cam Johnson, Miles Bridges, Patrick Williams, PJ Washington, Aaron Grodon, Tobias Harris, Kuminga, Kawhai, Jaquez Jr, OG, Jalen Williams, Sochan.
Just because he’s not as big as outliers like AD, Lauri, Paolo, Mobley, etc, doesn’t mean he can’t play that position. I should also note that Keegan is reported to have come into camp bigger and stronger. Put me in the camp that he’s the current prototypical NBA PF for the foreseeable future.
I understand all of that. I also understand he has always been a three in the NBA. Now he is an undersized four (by NBA standards) on a small team. His shooting will help that, but being down low more often will also limit his shots unless they rotate him out to the wing more often.
So does this new positioning impact him statistically and therefore contractually as well?
Keegan will guard the opposing 3 or 4 who is better at offense. He may cover a 2 or a 1 sometimes. We don’t want DeRozan guarding Butler, George, or Kawhi, do we? Keegan will take those guys who are “small forwards” or would be on teams without someone who is good and doesn’t work at any position but SF. Or Keegan will guard “power forwards” if that player is the better offensive player between the 3 and the 4.
Really, when you learn the origin of guard, forward, and center and then the origin of point guard, shooting guard, small forward, and power forward, you realize that those names are way out of date. What matters to me is the set of skill sets a team has but of course that’s impossible to condense into a two word position for a player.
Keegan can shoot from distance, defend against perimeter players, rim protect to a surprising degree, rebound well for a non-center, and create offensively when called upon but it shouldn’t be every other play like Fox. He’s not great at creating for others. He can defend 1-4. We’ll see about true big men, but I kinda doubt it.
Totally agree with the new NBA in terms of dinosaur terms like PF, SF, SG. etc. As of today he is the go to wing defender and with take the better of the 3/4 opponent. On offense he is a stretch wing. The traditional back to the basket PF is a thing of the past.
I just don’t get the “undersized” comments. The guy is a legit 6’8″ 230lbs. What about that is undersized?
Totally spot on. He looks fine guarding most bigger wings. He’s also put on a noticeable amount of muscle since his rookie year at least to my eyes. Our biggest issue right now is we need another Keegan style and sized player.
Bigger wings, power forwards, and centers are all different. He is playing the four or stretch four. That means occasionally an offense will do their best to rotate him onto the center for defense. He is a bigger wing.
You have totally persuaded me on this take over the course of the summer. I have always been in the Jonathan-Isaac-Type camp for our starting PF. But if you need a guy to play defense inside and outside while hitting a high volume of threes…Keegan Murray is standing right there.
I feel the current go to lineup in today’s NBA is a lead facilitator (typically a ball handling guard), 3 interchangeable wings that can shoot and defend, and a big man. The contending teams of today seem to be built like that.
FWIW, I feel Keegan is that 3 and D wing that can defend 1-4. Those players are the most valuable in today’s NBA.
How does DDR fit in this view of today’s NBA?
It’s still the nostalgia king of dance games but Just Dance has arguably supplanted it.
…that’s what you were asking right?
It’ll be interesting to see how this conversation evolves over the course of the season. Keegan could very easily have a season where he averages 18-20PPG on 40% from deep while remaining the Kings most versatile defender and becomes one of the most hyped prospects in the league. He could also just be a hyper versatile role player, and that’s pretty good, too.
I’d be totally fine with a hyper versatile role player. Those kind of guys win championships and also don’t demand max contracts. Great teams need the Jrue Holidays and Aaron Grodons of the world to win their titles.
I see Keegan in the realm of Khris Middleton, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, the Nets version of Mikal Bridges, 2022 Golden State Andrew Wiggins, prime Tobias Harris, and even some 2022 Jerami Grant – big wings who at times look more like shooting guards on offense and they guard the 2-4 positions on defense. To be fair to the beloved #13 – many of those guys are elite athletes and that is not him, so that might be an unfair expectation.
What do you all want him to be?
beefier to guard bigger 4s and rebound more?
More creative – to match the All-Stars I mention above?
I hope and expect Keegan to make a shuffle up in performance this season, but I don’t know about a jump. He’d have to be a creator, a higher rank on the offense or some other reason to warrant more attention and he is locked in as the 3rd or 4th option on this team as currently constructed. That’s not enough to be All-Star material unless Sacramento is a 60 win team, IMO.
I still like the idea of getting a more traditional Power Forward 4 – the 6’10” or taller and bigger variety for this Kings squad to help with the rebounding and rim protection. (I did notice that Mike Brown had Keegan doing some rim running in the Pre-Season)
I think he will be able do ok guarding most of the big fours. He will have trouble when teams figure out how to force him into guarding the center.
I’ll say this about Spock and his defensive strengths and weaknesses which seems to be a popular topic in this thread of comments so far.
He can guard 1-4 at a very solid level, he can legitimately guard the opposing teams best offensive player whether he is a PG, SG, SF, or PF. He’s proven that. It’s actually pretty incredible. What’s not to like? That he might be a bit undersized to guard a large portion of Centers? Ok. The fact is, a magical player who can guard 1-5 all at the same high level does not exist.
I think he can guard two through four. Pushing him to the four creates more exposure to guarding the center.
Give him another season and you’re probably fine with him as your 3rd best player. With NBA inflation being what it is and always has been, his next contract will not be that big of a payroll concern. You pay it and move on, as your alternate options for spending that money will very likely be far less attractive.
I don’t see anyone concerned about paying him too much.
Do you think he is over valued?
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