Mavericks 114, Kings 113: Heartbreak in Dallas

To the fans bemoaning the loss of Ty, and as corollary feel the impulse to besmirch the game of DeAwesome Fox, get a grip, get a clue or perhaps get right with God to garner divine wisdom on the topic. It took 30 minutes for me to process his departure and rejoice in the net gain, the transcedent transaction, the epic theft and revel in the aftereffect.  Why not join in on the revelry and stop wasting mental energy in denial of a good to great thing? 

Ty led his new team to a defeat against CoJo Slo and Marvin Bustly, two titans of the hardwood, so I get such awe inspiring confrontation in a different uniform pains the heart and soul. Who would not grieve profusely over the absence of a valiant warrior who logged a single-single of 8 and 7 in 36 minutes against certified legends of the game?  Meanwhile Fox messed around and got 44, abusing anyone DAL assigned to him, making mockery of every defender between him and the basket.

The problem with Ty lately, which is not exactly new, is he is not getting enough paint touches. If you want to be an elite PG in the NBA, you better get into the lane and it is best if you do not need a pick to get there. If you are spending too much time on the perimeter, not enough shake and bake and see ya later, you do the opponent a favor.  The parallel is what Fox has done ceaselessly since the trade is what Ty has not enough. “We traded the wrong player,” said no one who knows the value of getting into the lane with the skill to execute once there. 

Do you realize how relatively easy it is for Fox and Davion to get into the lane? The burst, attack mentality and strength is there in excess of what Ty possesses or will ever possess. The essence of shot creation for self and others, arguably the most important skill in the game, is beating your man, and the players we kept do it better. Of course Ty’s three ball and floater is money but the challenge and limitation for him is getting these quality looks. 

This is not post-trade revisionism or recency bias. When the speculation was rampant who to trade in a hypothetical deal for Simmons, I said Ty before Davion or Fox. Why? In terms of raw talent, Fox and Davion are superior. What complicated factors leading to the deadline as to optimal action was the excess weight Fox carried to start the season, his fake injury, his brooding nature and future commitment to the team.  These issues have been resolved favorably, thank goodness, but if fans wanted to levy legitimate criticism against Fox, these issues qualified, not his recent play. 

The present critics of Fox, the few remaining holdovers clinging to their sad and hollow protestations, have as much credibility as the critics of our GM post-deadline: none. You cannot fail to make the distinction between Fox level of play to start the season and now and expect to be taken seriously.  Critics would have you believe 50% vs 60% TS% and uninspired vs inspired aggressive defense amounts to the same, it is not good enough if in context of losses, and the culpability lies soley (primarly) with the player getting the most money. 

When Fox’s stats soar, it doesn’t matter. After all, he’s not Ja Morant. It is a bullshit opinion that I for one would be embarrassed to make on a public forum. Some fans have NO shame or intellectual integrity! It is time to reassess who Fox can be as a player, assimilate the new qualitative and quantitive data, not get more entrenched in inane viewpoints. If Fox is a terrible defender, or at best apathetic, always has been and will be, what to make of this metric? Oh noes, the fake pundits are going to have to engage in Jedi mind tricks on this one!

https://nbacourtoptix.nba.com/en

Using positional tracking data, Defensive Pressure Scores quantify how tight a defender is guarding his opponent by measuring inputs such as a defender’s speed, distance to his opponent, and ability to disrupt passing lanes. Not surprisingly, Davion ranks #1 in the NBA with a score of 75.8!  

Lookie here, who is #7 on this list, why it is the man who cannot guard his own shadow, how can this be?!  

It is fair to assert Fox’s defense at times leaves more to be desired. There are times he may underrate the opponent, disrespecting their skill and getting burned. He may not always close out on shooters as well as you would like to see. He can get in trouble vs guys of less stature but comparable quickness, opponents who can blow by with lower center of balance. Brunson did this once last night on a baseline drive. Fox does not always close out defensive possessions. He will be solid versus the primary action but can lose focus and execution on subsequent action.  

None of these issues are uncorrectable. Sharing the floor with more defenders, Donte and Davion in particular, seem to have raised his focus and determination. Executing with more purpose and less exertion on offense, teaming with Sabonis to form a devastating duo, leaves more energy to guard. And it is a miracle, his ankle is healed! 

The bottom line is Fox is hardly a lost cause defensively as critics would have you believe and as this metric indicates. In fact there is evidence he can intermittently be as spectacular on defense as on offense. 

Where is Ty on this list? Uh-oh, IND, we have a problem!  

In 11 games since his “miraculous” healing, Fox is 31.1 PPG on 51.5% FG%. He is shooting 5 threes per game at 36.5% (19 for 52). He has 67 assists (6.1 APG) to 26 TOs for a 2.6 assist to TO ratio. It bears mention in the 9 games prior to the “injury” he scored at least 27 points in 6 games. So it is not like this onslaught came out of nowhere. It was simmering to the surface. The trade was the accelerant but the skills were percolating.  

There are two pertinent questions worthy to address: (1) is it sustainable (2) does it matter? Newbs, casuals and doomers entrenched in their false paradigm will tell you because Fox has gone nuclear in the context of a 4-7 record the points are hollow and meaningless, or to be significantly discounted. There is such a thing as meaningless vs meaningful point production, let’s explore.

If you score 25 points but allow 30, your point total is tarnished. If you score 25 but it takes you 25 shots to get there, the opponent is content with your performance, so you should NOT be. If you score 25 but your team is down 20 points for much of the game, much of your output achieved during garbage time, your shine is dulled.

Similarly games at the end of the season in which nothing is at stake but pride also must be discounted to a degree by nature of their irrelevancy. If you agree to these premises, and if you have common sense you will, you agree by default to the the corrolary, and this allows us to define meaningful point production. 

Meaningful point production occurs in the context of respectable efficiency, around 55% TS% or better, respectable defense, and competitive games.  Your shot attempts are justified because you convert at equal or better rate than teammates, you do not cruise or slack egregiously on the other end, and you do so in context of spirited battle between invested opponents usually decided in the 4th quarter. Notice I did not say you lead your team to victory because there are variables out of your control that contribute to dictating the winner, for example a shitty coach, a shitty ref, or a wing defender over-helping to allow a winning corner 3. 

There is NO reason Fox cannot be 35% from deep. He has the mechanics and space to get clean looks anytime he wants, Sabonis clearing traffic for him. His awful shooting percentages from deep in my mind amounts to lack of confidence and rhythm, issues readily improved upon with a more structured offense that gets him his middy or rim finish as prioirty, than the deep ball when the opponent surrenders this shot. The softness of Holmes and Bagley as a pick setter, lacking the savvy and timing and bulk, in contrast to Sabonis, also affects the quality of 3s.  

The holy terror Fox has been on has not been with the benefit of the whistle. As relentless as he has been going to the rack, he has only be awarded 6 FTAs per game over this 11-game stretch. Total disrespect, but Fox is undeterred and poised in his pleas for justice. The tide is going to inevitably turn if his mental and physical persistence keeps up. 10 FTAs per game could and should become the norm. 

Justin Holiday is a fake starter with too many minutes gifted by a fake coach. After an encouraging debut has been mostly below average with Buddy-like bullshit. The injury to TD occurred at the worst possible time for him and the team, before Buddy was dispatched, opening up 30 MPG for TD in optimized role. 

Fox has been lethal although he does not have a capable SG aside him. That may be TD. Chances were better than 50/50 in favor. He certainly impresses as the best candidate. Donte and Davion have had their moments but neither have seized the role due to spotty shooting. When a player emerges or acquired this summer to man the guard spot next to Fox, his game projects to only get better with a reliable running mate. 

What happens if opponents start double teaming Fox? Be my guest. Double teams are more effective in the post than perimeter. Fox will pick apart doubles with his speed or passes over the top. A pass out of the double and one more usually leads to an open shot or dunk. Double teaming Fox is not a viable option in most situations.

Where is the limitation, therefore, the barrier to the sustainability of 28 to 30 PPG in meaningful context? If you observe Morant closely you will see he is comfortable to lead with his off-hand and drive left. He can finish left or crossover to his strong hand. This makes him unorthodox and unpredictable. Fox does not have this in his bag. Teams can game plan for this to degree by sending help to the direction he is inclined to go, but even this plan fails without the personnel to neutralize his combination of quickness and strength, to get to his spots and finish through contact.

Morant has more flexible ankles, less scar tissue and injury history, a little bit longer of an athlete, that enables him to contort himself in space and rise above the rim more than Fox, but this is nitpicking. Fox has more polish in his mid-range, better footwork, probable strength advantage. Morant is going to be Top 3 for MVP with Nikola and Embiid, and in terms of talent, Fox is right there with him. The difference is the talent and coaching that surrounds Morant, but our GM is going to be closing this gap momentarily. 

Until then, the sustainability of Fox as one of the best scorers in the game, meaningful points as defined above, is a virtual lock. 

Then there is Tyrese, who badmouthed SAC on his way out the door, has legs like a chicken, can’t keep a dead man in front of him, and has had heck of a time getting to into the paint, a place Fox calls home. No, his name is not Ty-reek Hella-Boring, don’t you dare say that! It is not necessary to besmirch the name of Tyrese, but I look forward to March 23rd, SAC @ IND, when DeAwesome drops a fifty piece on his befuddled head.